MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[HSCDad]

RMC 99  EMU 91 in OT  3's did not fall for EMU in OT

[donho]

 R-MC very very lucky tonight. But a W is a W. See ya tomorrow night.

[HSCDad]

Guilford down 12 at half and that occurred with them making 3 3's in last minute

[rmc1982]

R-MC very very lucky tonight. But a W is a W. See ya tomorrow night.

DonHo.... I will step out on a limb and predict that the Jackets  will make it AT LEAST to the finals.... I really think we're gonna take the whole banana!! OT wins in big games build  ur confidence  and character... Blowout wins make your head bigger than it should be ....... We have the upper hand now...and confidence under pressure.......GO JACKETS!!

[algernon]

R-MC very very lucky tonight. But a W is a W. See ya tomorrow night.

DonHo.... I will step out on a limb and predict that the Jackets  will make it AT LEAST to the finals.... I really think we're gonna take the whole banana!! OT wins in big games build  ur confidence  and character... Blowout wins make your head bigger than it should be ....... We have the upper hand now...and confidence under pressure.......GO JACKETS!!

Looks like it will be #1 VWC vs. #4 HSC and #2 Randolph-Macon vs. #6 Randolph tomorrow night.  I hope that we'll get that Tigers/Yellow Jackets tie-breaker on Sunday!

[HSCDad]

Guilford falls by 22!!

[onetinsoldier]

onetinsoldier - certainly would like to see the efficiency matries that you ran on H-SC.  Thanks

Hi HSCdad
i used stats i believe as of the 2/12 report, so last weeks games are not included.  Many people differ on determining a true pace statistic.  But for possessions per game i use (FGAttempts - off rebs +TO + 0.4*FTattempts).  It is fairly generic, but for my purposes does the trick.  For HSC, i had 1486 FGA - 330 off reb + 410 tos * .4*541Fta).  Total possessions / games played gave me 1782/23 = 77.49 possessions per game.  I then factored in their ppg of 89.2 and pts allowed pg of 68. to get an offensive efficiency of 1.15 and def efficiency of 0.88.

Their net effiency of +.27 is second in the country behind MIT.  The thing about those teams is that they play such stifling defense, they can be scary to teams that play only average to slightly above average defense.  As comparison, VA Wesleyan is very close behind at 6th in the country and Randolph Macon is 80th. 

Next week i'd like to run these matrices only looking at last 5-6 weeks to get me better ready for the site's pick em contest.  i'll let you know what i find out about the odac teams.

If you didn't already, I'd be interested to see their efficiency stats with the Patrick Henry game backed-out of the calculation.  Just curious how much that would drop them.  That ridiculous game has no relevance to how they compete on the DIII level.

great point augie, when i rerun my matrix after the weekend i'll take that game out. 

[hasanova]

Congratulations to Randolph, ..... but I am very disappointed with Guilford's inability to finish the season in a positive manner for the second year in a row.  I'm not sure if we just don't match-up well with Randolph or what.  Thanks to the five seniors who finished 89-28 and went to two Final Fours.  I wish it could have been a better end to your careers!

[2RMCFans]

^that's an incredible record for your 5 seniors & they have everyone's respect, not just around the ODAC but around the nation.

Never have we seen worse officiating than what we saw last night.  It set a new bar for terrible.

Congrats to the winners & good luck to all in the semifinals.

GO JACKETS!!!!     

[algernon]

There are 19 Pool C bids.  Based upon what I'm reading in the Pool C discussion, these teams -- all of which have failed to win their conference AQ --  are probably ahead of Randolph-Macon (currently 17-4, 20-5) for a Pool C bid (regional record, overall record):

1) St. Joseph's (LI)      SKY         21-3, 21-4
2) Hartwick         E8         22-3, 23-3
3) Wittenberg         NCAC         18-5, 20-6
4) Lake Forest         MWC         19-4, 20-4 
5) NESCAC runnerup (Amherst, Middlebury, or Wesleyan)
6) WIAC runnerup (Whitewater or River Falls)
7) W. Connecticut         LEC         20-6, 20-6
8) Stevens Point         WIAC         17-6, 19-6

These are other teams that have failed to win their conference AQ.  While I don't think they'll get a Pool C before Randolph-Macon, one never knows ...:

St. Mary's (Md)         CAC         17-6, 19-7
Keystone         CSAC         21-6, 21-6
NYU         UAA         19-5, 19-5 
Emory        UAA         19-5, 19-5 

There are also a bunch of other teams that certainly might get a Pool C bid before Randolph-Macon, if they fail to win their conference AQ.  For Yellow Jackets' fans, it would be good if these teams win the conference AQs, in case RMC falls to Randolph or VWC/HSC:

Staten Island         CUNYAC         21-2, 23-4
Oswego State         SUNYAC         24-2, 24-3
Hobart             LL         21-4, 22-4 
Medaille         AMCC         23-2, 24-2
Hope         MIAA         17-0, 25-1   
Wooster         NCAC         21-4,23-4 
Franklin & Marshall         CC         24-2, 24-2 
Wheaton (IL)         CCIW         19-5, 21-5
Transylvania         HCAC         21-2, 22-3
Third NESCAC team?
MIT         NEWMAC         23-1, 23-1   
Rhode Island College         LEC         22-5, 22-5
Mary Hardin-Baylor         ASC         24-1, 25-1
Virginia Wesleyan         ODAC         22-3, 23-3
Birmingham-Southern         SCAC         22-1, 25-1
Whitworth         NWC         22-2, 23-3

[y_jack_lok]

I've never understood this Pool C thing very well and probably never will, so please don't try to explain the whole thing to me. However, please answer this question if you don't mind. There are 19 Pool C bids and you identify 8 teams that did not win their conference AQ as being ahead of R-MC for a Pool C bid. So if you were simply to make a list of all teams eligible for a Pool C bid, at what number would you put R-MC?

[donho]

  y_jack ,    rand-mac is sitting around number 9 in pool C. If you were to check out the general b-ball topics on this site there are some basketball minds putting together their predictions. I find (their work) helpful. So IF  I understand things they (R-MC)  are currently sitting at number 18 overall with only 19 spots available.

[y_jack_lok]

Thanks. That helps.

[algernon]

I hope that others find my post helpful, donho.

The best minds are examining the question of Pool C bids at http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.3630 ... but there is a lot to wade through.  I think that RMC's situation certainly depends upon whether they can beat Randolph tonight.  If they lose to #7 Randolph, they are in a more difficult situation than if they lose to another winning team tomorrow afternoon.  They would be 17-5, 20-6 with a loss tonight .... and would probably be behind:

1 & 2 -- two NESCAC teams
3 & 4 -- two WIAC teams
5.   Wittenberg   NCAC
6.   Rhode Island or Eastern Connecticut (loser of LEC final)
7.   Western Conn.  LEC
8.   Wheaton (IL) or North Central (loser of CCIW final)

They might also be behind:
9.   St. Joseph's (LI)      SKY         21-3, 21-4
10.   Hartwick         E8         22-3, 23-3
11.   Lake Forest         MWC         19-4, 20-4
12.   Ohio Wesleyan NCAC   19-7, 20-7
13.   Emory  UAA  19-5, 19-5

And they might lose a Pool C to any of the following teams who do not win their conference AQ:

William Paterson     NJAC         23-4, 23-4
Staten Island         CUNYAC         21-2, 23-4
Oswego State         SUNYAC         24-2, 24-3
Hope         MIAA         17-0, 25-1   
Wooster         NCAC         21-4, 23-4
Franklin & Marshall         CC         24-2, 24-2
Transylvania         HCAC         21-2, 22-3
MIT         NEWMAC         23-1, 23-1   
Mary Hardin-Baylor         ASC         24-1, 25-1
Virginia Wesleyan         ODAC         22-3, 23-3
Birmingham-Southern         SCAC         22-1, 25-1
Whitworth         NWC         22-2, 23-3

So I think that RMC would be sitting at maybe 9-14 ... and I'm basing this largely upon what I've seen at http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.3630 by Titan Q.  RMC would get into the tournament if no more than 4-9 of the "bubble busters" lose their conference AQ.  So their chances appear to be very good, even if they lose tonight.  If RMC wins tonight and VWC wins tonight (hope not!), the Yellow Jackets would appear to be assured of a Pool C bid, if they lost to the Marlins tomorrow.

Personally, I hope that HSC and RMC both win tonight .... and that the Tigers win the tie-breaker against the Yellow Jackets tomorrow night.  That would probably give us 3 ODAC teams in the NCAA tournament!

[donho]

 Actually  R-MC is at(18-4) 21-5 right now.  Wonder how much difference one game makes at this time of the year? Meaning 17-4 vs. 18-4 or 20-5 vs. 21-5
  Three from the ODAC would be great!