MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

steelyglen · January 20, 2006, 08:09:03 AM

stillfamily... the above a change. It is different than what you submitted earlier...do you want this "pick'em" to be the one?

Just wanna make sure I get the right picks!

As a reminder...mr_divac and 3sdown...nothing yet from you's guys..FWIW...everybody else is in.

Matt Barnhart (kid) · January 20, 2006, 09:24:45 AM

New poll posted.

Previous Question: With Selection Monday less than six weeks away, who do you feel will make the big dance?
Just H-SC - 0 (0%)
Just R-MC - 2 (7.1%)
Just VWC - 4 (14.3%)
H-SC and R-MC - 5 (17.9%)
H-SC and VWC - 0 (0%)
R-MC and VWC - 14 (50%)
H-SC, R-MC and VWC - 3 (10.7%)

Total Votes: 28

algernon · January 20, 2006, 10:00:44 AM

Quote from: tigerfanalso on January 19, 2006, 12:18:16 PM
No question HSC will be tested at home by Guilford. I firmly believe that every game remaing on HSC's schedule will be highly competitive; not one is a layup. There are only two teams in the ODAC that are heads above the rest; VWC and RMC and it appears VWC has an advantage at this time with their win in Ashland. Either way, RMC & VWC should play each other for the regular season title whenever they get together @ the beach. I don't see any other team in the ODAC beating either of those two in the regular season unless a key player is injuried or otherwise out.

I agree with your first 2 sentences ... There will be no layups for HSC.

However, there will also be no layups for RMC or VWC. The Marlins' win streak has stretched to 12 games, but this year's Tigers won 11 in a row, including a win over VWC, before losing 3 of their last 4 games. Similarly, last year, the Marlins were 11-0 on January 7 and then lost 4 of their next 5 games (to Emory & Henry, Guilford, Bridgewater, and Hampden-Sydney) before they got their footing and went on to win the ODAC Championship.

Not only have the Marlins been beaten 3 times already, they've only narrowly won a number of other games. They've been taken to OT by Bridgewater, Eastern Mennonite, and Lynchburg.

Similarly, RMC was badly beaten by the Marlins, was taken to OT by Guilford in Ashland, and only narrowly beat Bridgewater and EMU. I think that it's going to be interesting to see what happens when RMC and VWC do their "joint road trip" to E&H and Guilford. Last year, the Yellow Jackets and Marlins lost 3 of those 4 games. That trip is a week from now, January 28-29.

I don't think any team will finish with a 17-1 ODAC record this year, and expect that a 16-2 or 15-3 or maybe even a 14-4 record will gain a team the #1 seed in this year's ODAC tournament. The #1 seed is likely to be the Yellow Jackets or the Marlins, but I would not yet rule out the #1 seed going to the Tigers or the Quakers, as there a lot of games yet to be played, and there won't be layups for any of these teams.

baselinejam · January 20, 2006, 11:32:34 AM

my picks

Saturday, January 21
Bridgewater
Hampden-Sydney
Guilford
Randolph-Macon

Sunday, January 22
Virginia Wesleyan

tigerfanalso · January 20, 2006, 11:55:57 AM

Algernon

I hope your assessment is right. I would love nothing more than to see a real dog fight for the regular season championship. Guilford is a team I've not seen play so far so I can't speak on their possibilities, however, I don't think the Tigers will be in that battle unless a major turn around occurs. At this point I feel they have no chance to beat Macon in Ashland, but as we all know anything is possible in sports. If UVA can beat UNC with the team they have, anything truly is possible. I guess that is why they play the game(s). If the winner of the ODAC does in fact lose four conference games, the ODCA will probably only have one team in the tournament... but that's life.

algernon · January 20, 2006, 12:30:40 PM

I'm wondering what kind of record might get a team into the NCAA tournament and have looked at the last time there were more than 48 teams in the tournament, in 1997. There were 64 teams that year -- 6 more than the 58 we'll have this year -- but it may be interesting to look at the kind of record that got teams into the tournament when there were 64 teams.

In 1997, the ODAC was represented in the tournament by:

Hampden-Sydney (12-6 regular season ODAC record, won the ODAC tournament, and entered the NCAAs with a 21-6 overall record).
Roanoke (13-5 regular season ODAC record, winning the regular season championship, but lost by 1 point to Hampden-Sydney in the semifinals of the ODAC tournament, and entered the NCAAs with a 21-7 overall record).
Bridgewater (12-6 regular season ODAC record, lost by 15 to #6 Lynchburg in the semifinals of the ODAC tournament, and entered the NCAAs with a 19-7 overall record).

It's surprising to me that Bridgewater got a bid that year. It's also interesting that Bridgewater, the team that seems least likely of the three teams to have gotten a bid, went on to win their first two games of the tournament and make it to the Sweet Sixteen, while both Hampden-Sydney and Roanoke lost their first-round games.

Pat Coleman · January 20, 2006, 01:56:50 PM

That year, though, the South was guaranteed eight playoff bids and there was no ASC to deal with. You almost had to take three ODAC teams just to fill the bracket.

algernon · January 20, 2006, 02:09:41 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on January 20, 2006, 01:56:50 PM
That year, though, the South was guaranteed eight playoff bids and there was no ASC to deal with. You almost had to take three ODAC teams just to fill the bracket.

Thanks for the info, Pat. What do you think are the tournament chances this year for an ODAC team that finishes 21-6 or 20-7 but loses the conference tournament?

Pat Coleman · January 20, 2006, 05:02:01 PM

Probably depends on who it is. Here's where we stand:

School, Regional Record, QOWi
Randolph-Macon, 10-3, 10.385
Virginia Wesleyan, 13-3, 9.688
Hampden-Sydney, 8-3, 8.636
Guilford, 7-4, 8.364
Roanoke, 6-4, 7.800

Don't get caught up in overall record, it's practically irrelevant.

Since this is the first year we'll have 18 Pool C bids instead of seven, it's not readily apparent where the bar will fall to, but I don't think Hampden-Sydney is in particularly good shape for Pool C.

algernon · January 20, 2006, 06:23:12 PM

Pat ... I have never understood why out-of-region wins are not counted in the determination of the QOWi, since the final determination on NCAA bids is not done on a region-by-region basis, at least as I understand it. As currently done, the Tigers have 4 wins against out-of-region teams that are not considered in the QOWi. Randolph-Macon has a big win against St. John Fisher that isn't considered in the QOWi. Do these wins get factored in at all by the selection committee?

Second thing ... It seems odd to me that Lincoln is considered in-region to Randolph-Macon but Lebanon Valley is considered out-of-region to the Yellow Jackets. Both teams are listed as Mid-Atlantic Region, so why is one considered "in" and the other "out"?

Pat Coleman · January 20, 2006, 06:46:25 PM

Quote from: algernon on January 20, 2006, 06:23:12 PM
Pat ... I have never understood why out-of-region wins are not counted in the determination of the QOWi, since the final determination on NCAA bids is not done on a region-by-region basis, at least as I understand it.

Nonetheless, this is the way the rule is. It's as described in the FAQ. The formula has not changed since it was introduced a few years ago.

Quote from: algernon on January 20, 2006, 06:23:12 PM
Second thing ... It seems odd to me that Lincoln is considered in-region to Randolph-Macon but Lebanon Valley is considered out-of-region to the Yellow Jackets. Both teams are listed as Mid-Atlantic Region, so why is one considered "in" and the other "out"?

The definition of a regional game was changed three years ago. Also in the FAQ.

3sdown · January 20, 2006, 10:48:22 PM

Steely-

My picks for Saturday and Sunday...Sorry for not getting them in for Wednesday. Just has been a busy week, but I am glad I will be able to see the Jackets in person tomorrow as well as the dedication of the gymnasium!

Saturday, January 21
Eastern Mennonite @ Bridgewater
Hampden-Sydney @ Emory & Henry
Guilford @ Lynchburg
Roanoke @ Randolph-Macon
Washington & Lee @ Virginia Wesleyan

Sunday, January 22
Washington & Lee @ Randolph-Macon
Roanoke @ Virginia Wesleyan

stillfamily · January 20, 2006, 11:16:18 PM

steelyglen......please use my most recent picks with my upset of hsc at eh.....
as for eh ... just call me 'kid'
i agree maybe we should get a bonus point..haha....

Jeremybozz · January 21, 2006, 01:32:27 AM

I am considering attending the BC/EMU men's game at Nininger Hall. Is it sold out or is there going to be standing room only?

Olinemom · January 21, 2006, 03:43:57 AM

Quote from: Jeremybozz on January 21, 2006, 01:32:27 AM
I am considering attending the BC/EMU men's game at Nininger Hall. Is it sold out or is there going to be standing room only?

I doubt it will be sold out. This is the weekend between semesters for the students and plenty of them will be away. But you will need to get there earlier than normal to get a decent seat. Especially since the girls play at 4 and that should be pretty close to full!!