MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[tigerfanalso]

Since RMC's fall from the top 25 I don't think the ODAC will get two teams in unless a team other than VWC wins the tourny. If VWC finishes the season out with wins and wins at least one game in the tourny, they shoould receive a bid. We'll see what happens.

The HSC vs. Roanoke game last nite was another POORLY officiated game, perhaps the worse one if seen this year. Calls with against both teams, but I thought Roanoke got the best of the calls in the 1st half ... HSC in the second..

The ODAC needs to get it's check book out, pay higher fees and acquire the best officials around

[algernon]

What does everyone think of the Marlins #19 ranking in the most recent DIII hoops poll.  Is it too high, low or just about right?

Will the ODAC still get 2 bids to the show?  Its time for all you stat crunchers to go to work and give us ALL of the possible scenarios.

I think the Marlins are underrated in the new poll and should be at #17 or higher, given their 17-game win streak.  With a current ranking of only #19, VWC might drop out of the Top 25 with a single upset loss, despite their long win streak.  I doubt there is another team in the country other than Lawrence (19-0) that has such a win streak going ......

There will be 10 more Pool C bids available this year.  I think that, if Randolph-Macon wins out and loses in the championship game to VWC, finishing 22-6, they will almost certainly get a Pool C bid.  The Yellow Jackets are still getting some votes for the Top 25, 3 of their 6 losses would be to a top-ranked team in the Marlins, and they would have split a 2-game series with the Lincoln Lions (who are currently 20-4 and a shoe-in for a Pool B bid).  Given 3 wins to finish the season and an appearance in the championship game against the Marlins, I think the Yellow Jackets' situation would be very good.

The Tigers are very unlikely to get a bid without winning the tournament.  If they win the next 3 games to finish the regular season, with a win against Macon on Saturday, go to the tournament championship game and lose a 1-point game to a 25-3 Marlins squad, then their 20-7 record (with 3 of those losses to the Marlins) might get them some consideration, but it's almost certain that their in-region record of 16-7 wouldn't be good enough to get them a bid.

[jdubyadubya]

I think Coach Macedo would say he had a pretty good recruiting year. He has five(5) solid freshmen who will be moving up. His sophomores -- DJ Tucker, Ari Paschal, TonTon Balenga, and Tyler Fantin -- are pretty good and will be expected to be very good as juniors. His juniors -- soon to be seniors -- are Rodney Young, Thomas Sumpter, Marcus Riley, and Brandon Adair. They should be fantastic. Marques Fitch is graduating along with Matt Towell.

[oldfish]

Jacketlawyer-

This is the reason that I have so much respect for the people on this board.  As Attorneys, we are wholly unsuited for this type of analysis.  Since I am lucky to get my monthly billing submitted correctly, I put my full faith in the "stat crunchers" to do the hard work for me.

Let me throw this question out there: All other things being the same, but RMC had two more wins and were still in the top 25, what would VWC's ranking be then?

Also;

How is the "down year" in the ODAC going to effect VWC's seeding come NCAA tourney time?

[Jacketlawyer]

Jacketlawyer-

This is the reason that I have so much respect for the people on this board.  As Attorneys, we are wholly unsuited for this type of analysis.  Since I am lucky to get my monthly billing submitted correctly, I put my full faith in the "stat crunchers" to do the hard work for me.

AMEN BROTHER, AMEN.  Couldn't have put it better myself.   I am hoping that every poster that comes to the ODAC tourney on February 18th, will come to the All Sports Cafe on Grandin Avenue in Roanoke after the second game is played.  I'd like to meet everyone!!

I am also hoping Algernon's analysis is correct, though.  I'd love to see Macon go to the NCAAs

[cnufan]

The HSC vs. Roanoke game last nite was another POORLY officiated game, perhaps the worse one if seen this year. Calls with against both teams, but I thought Roanoke got the best of the calls in the 1st half ... HSC in the second..

I know two of the officials who officiated this game, they are usually pretty decent officials too, hopefully they just had a bad/off night.

[hasanova]

Understandably, some of our posters are beginning to look at the returning players for next season while also hoping for a good recruiting class.  With this in mind, I just took a quick look at Guilford's expected 2006-07 roster and, while I have no idea who the Quakers are recruiting, the returning nucleus looks pretty solid.  Usual starters Strong and Kimbrough are Sophomores this season while (Jordan) Snipes and Burge are Juniors.  Belkoski (So), Neville (Fr), Wells (Fr), Edmond (So), Coston (r-Fr), Payne (Fr), Miller (Jr), Stanly (Fr), (Justin) Snipes (Fr) and Hurley (Fr) would appear to leave the Quakers in good shape for next season.  The four 2005-06 Seniors (Kitaif, Lockett, Taylor and Poteat), while they will be missed, have rarely started and have all averaged 1-4 ppg in college.   Guilford should, I think, be a Top 4 ODAC preseason pick next season.

[Jacketlawyer]

Randolph-Macon loses three players in Justin Wansley, Patrick Gill, and Rob Harris to graduation this year.  Harris hasn't been much of a PTP'r this year though.  But we stand to suit up 9 sophomores, 3 juniors, and 4 seniors for next year, assuming we don't lose some to academics/transfers, or one that tends to creep in occasionally, too expensive tuition.

I wish there was a way to figure out how and who each school recruits, but I am unware of any.

[seminoletiger]

Algernon,

The Tigers are 1 and 1 against the Marlins.  It's the only blemish on their ODAC record. 


Like I said in response to the Tourney poll posted earlier in January.  No more than 2 from the ODAC will go.   VWC will likely go to the tourney if they hold serve the rest of the regular season and win a game in the tourney.  IMO RMC is a little less of a sure thing than VWC, but if they win out and win one or two games in the tourney, then I believe that they have have a fair shot of making the dance (this is assuming that either RMC or VWC wins the tourney).  For all others, including HSC, I don't believe there will be any other bids for ODAC teams unless someone other than RMC/VWC wins the ODAC tourney  (and if that occurs, I predict that RMC will get bumped).

I don't know a whole lot about other Southern region conferences, but face it guys (and gals), the ODAC is down this year compared to recent years, and doesn't really deserve more than one or two reps.  Just my opinion.

[tigerfanalso]

Algernon

I hope your thoughts on HSC's hopes of entering tournament play are right, but I see them having to win the ODAC to have any chance, even with the expanded field. I also agree that VWC is probably underrated at this point, however, I do see them getting a bid even if they get beat in the conference tourney. I think they can really represent the ODAC well in the NCAA's. Macon can to if they can recapture their earlier form and get Wansley healthy. Good luck to all this week!!!

[FISHTANKFAN]

 To be honest and not because I am a Marlins fan, I think they should have been a bit higher, say 16 or 15 because frankly I see some conferences with 3 in the top 25 and their records aren't so hot.  Teams who are in 3rd or 4th place in their conference and yet still in the top 25??  I take offense that the ODAC must be down because VWC is winning and they are the only team in the ODAC to now be in the top 25.  When RMC and HSC were in the top 25 was the ODAC a better conference?? And because they are no longer in the top 25 the ODAC is somehow down this year?..can't have it both ways. VWC has earned its record, against some really good teams in the ODAC.  Yes, injuries have hurt all the teams, some more than others, but VWC has won a  17 in a row and for that alone they should be higher in the polls.  Just my opinion but the ODAC hasn't gotten the respect it deserves as a conference in a long time.

[algernon]

The Tigers are 1 and 1 against the Marlins.  It's the only blemish on their ODAC record.

How could I forget the Tigers' win at the Beach?!  That was their best win of the season.  It came against a superb team.  Would love to see something similar happen this Saturday.

seminoletiger and tigerfanalso:  I think we're in general agreement that (1) the Marlins only have to win their last 3 regular season games to get a tournament bid, because even a loss in the tourney would leave them with 21-23 regional wins and only 4 regional losses, (2) the Yellow Jackets have a shot at a conference bid if they win their last 3 regular season games but lose in the tournament, although a regional record of 17-19 wins vs. 6 losses leaves their chances very up-in-the-air, and (3) the Tigers are almost certainly going to have to win the ODAC tournament to get an NCAA bid.

IF the Marlins actually win their next 6 games and finish 25-3, they're likely to play the NCAA tournament at home for the first two rounds and might even possibly host a Sectional.

[Ralph Turner]

The Tigers are 1 and 1 against the Marlins.  It's the only blemish on their ODAC record.

IF the Marlins actually win their next 6 games and finish 25-3, they're likely to play the NCAA tournament at home for the first two rounds and might even possibly host a Sectional.

  The Marlins hit their stride, or rather, 61% of their FGs in the ODAC tourney to run away from the field.  They haul off the Tourney trophy on Monday February 20th and go cold in their next game, the first round game at the Beach on Friday night, March 2nd.   

In the post-game interviews, the players have no explanation for their 21 turnovers and FG percentage of 34%.  "We just were cold tonight." 

[Mr. Ypsi]

For the national tourney, always keep in mind that ONLY in-region games are relevant - other games (however impressive or disgraceful) simply don't exist as far as the NCAA is concerned.

Va. Wes., at 18-3 in-region, #34 in QOWI (10.050), seems virtually a lock for a C if they don't win the AQ (barring a HORRIBLE meltdown).

RMC is on the low side of the bubble at this point: in-region, 14-5 (and we're not talking a pool C unless they pick up at least one more loss - NO losses, they are the AQ!); pretty good QOWI at #45 (9.722).  My guess would be if they win out right up to the conference tourney title game, they're in; anything less is very iffy.

HS would seem to be toast unless they can win the AQ: they already have 6 in-region losses, and are not listed among the top 100 QOWIs.  Their chances of a C are nil.

[justafan02]

i'm coming for you jaf02 .....

Bring it on!!  I want the RC and Moonpie for myself.  Tough to catch me by only picking one different pick than me..