MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[hasanova]

I've enjoyed reading all the scenarios involving VWC's chances of getting a bye and/or hosting NCAA playoff games after they sweep the ODAC tournament.  I certainly acknowledge their chances are good, but I have the following observations and questions:

-What happens if the Marlins don't win the ODAC tournament?  VWC's good, but the Marlins aren't invincible.  There have got to be some Marlins fans dreading the thought of playing RMC, E&H or GC (among others) a third time.
- I know the winner of the ODAC tournament gets the AQ, but what are Guilford's chances of getting an at-large bid if they have a good ODAC tournament showing -i.e., lose the championship game by a close margin or lose the semifinals by a close margin?
- What are the Quakers' chances of getting an at-large bid if they got upset in the first round by W&L or BC?
- In my opinion, I just don't see anyone besides GC and VWC getting a bid unless they win the ODAC tournament.  Is this what everyone else sees?

[Mr. Ypsi]

I would see VWC as a veritable lock for a C if they are not the AQ.  Assuming Guilford picks up only regional loss #4 (#5 might be a killer), I think their QOWI and regional ranking puts them at least on the high side of the bubble - probably fairly safe.  I don't see anyone else with any realistic chance at a C.

So two teams from the ODAC seems a good bet; the only scenario which might yield three would be someone else winning the AQ, beating Guilford in the final (and Guilford might still pay the price for that scenario).

[algernon]

I would see VWC as a veritable lock for a C if they are not the AQ.  Assuming Guilford picks up only regional loss #4 (#5 might be a killer), I think their QOWI and regional ranking puts them at least on the high side of the bubble - probably fairly safe.  I don't see anyone else with any realistic chance at a C.

So two teams from the ODAC seems a good bet; the only scenario which might yield three would be someone else winning the AQ, beating Guilford in the final (and Guilford might still pay the price for that scenario).

Thanks for your input.  Makes sense to me.

I think that Guilford will get a Pool C unless some team other than GC or VWC gets the AQ.  In that case, VWC gets a Pool C and I'm not sure that Guilford gets a second ODAC Pool C bid.  The Quakers should hope that, if they don't win the ODAC tournament, Virginia Wesleyan does.

[hasanova]

I would see VWC as a veritable lock for a C if they are not the AQ.  Assuming Guilford picks up only regional loss #4 (#5 might be a killer), I think their QOWI and regional ranking puts them at least on the high side of the bubble - probably fairly safe.  I don't see anyone else with any realistic chance at a C.

So two teams from the ODAC seems a good bet; the only scenario which might yield three would be someone else winning the AQ, beating Guilford in the final (and Guilford might still pay the price for that scenario).

Thanks for your input.  Makes sense to me.

I think that Guilford will get a Pool C unless some team other than GC or VWC gets the AQ.  In that case, VWC gets a Pool C and I'm not sure that Guilford gets a second ODAC Pool C bid.  The Quakers should hope that, if they don't win the ODAC tournament, Virginia Wesleyan does.

I also sincerely appreciate the input from both of you.   I realize there are many more teams vying for fewer spots (59) in the DIII postseason than there are in DI (65), but this highlights a stark difference between the two postseason tournaments.  If you're ranked 17th in the country, have a 20-3 record (14-3 conference) and are a lock to finish 2nd in a 10-team conference, you make the NCAA DI postseason hands down.  Even if you fall ignominiously in your last two games (last regular season game and the 1st round of the conference tournament), you're definitely in with ONLY a 20-5 record.  I understand how some teams get discouraged.  If Guilford doesn't make the 2007 postseason, it's a certainty that a lesser team did.  Personally, I think it's a little too hard to get a bid and, hopefully, this scenario won't prove to be a poster child example of "what if."

[Pat Coleman]

Except the ODAC isn't the ACC.

[hasanova]

Except the ODAC isn't the ACC.

Yes, you're right.  I mentioned in my post there were more teams, but less spots in DIII versus DI.  It still doesn't seem reasonable to me, however, that a Top 20 team with only 3 current losses (and 2 of those to the #2 team!) could conceivably NOT make the 59-team postseason.  C'est la vie.

[hasanova]

Final at Emory:  Guilford 108, E&H 107.

The Quakers trailed 101-93 with about 5 minutes to go, but outstanding "Free Throw Defense" at the end was eerily reminiscent of the Jan. 31 game at W&L.  Ben Strong fouled out with 4.7 seconds to go and E&H's Anthony Hairston went to the line to shoot two, with the Wasps trailing by one, 108-107.  Hairston missed both, the Wasps got the final rebound, but could not convert.  The Quakers hung on for the win!  Whew!

The Quakers end the regular season 21-3, 15-3 after their 7th win in a row, five of which were on the road.  The Wasps end the regular season 14-10, 10-8.  GC led by Strong with 29 points & 12 rebounds.  I don't remember him ever fouling out before today.  Snipes 12, Strickland 16, Kimbrough 11 & Belkoski 15 were all in double figures.  E&H was led by Hudson with 18 (all threes), Reasbeck 17, Viers 14 and Landreth 9 (all threes). 

Weird stats:  E&H attempted 75 threes while GC had zero, but the Quakers were 44 of 69 from the floor.  E&H was 33 of 99 (22 of 75 threes) from the floor.  I believe this is GC's 6th win in a row over E&H.  No "offense" intended, but I really don't want to play those guys again this season, as we did last year.  If that's what happens, so be it, but they put points up in a hurry when they're "on" beyond the arc.

[algernon]

Hampden-Sydney defeated Randolph-Macon this afternoon by an insane margin.  Ahead by 17 at the half, the Tigers proceeded to increase their lead to 36 points with about 4 minutes to go.  The Yellow Jackets reduced the final margin to 29 points:  82-53.

The Tigers hit 12 of 19 of their 3-pointers (63%), while the Yellow Jackets turned the ball over 17 times.  Very one-sided game. 

Mike Edwards had 27 points, to put him at 988 for his career.  We're expecting him to break the 1000-point mark in the tournament.  Freshman Turner King added 19 points and a game-high seven rebounds, finishing the regular season with 12.1 points and 4.5 rebounds a game.  He hit over 48% from behind the arc during the course of a great freshman season.

It was nice to beat the Yellow Jackets after losing 7 straight.  The Tigers hadn't beat the Yellow Jackets since the 2nd regular season game in 2004, at Hampden-Sydney.  (There wasn't a 3rd game that year in the ODAC tournament, as there often has been, because RMC was upset by Lynchburg in the #1 vs. #8 quarterfinal game.)

[algernon]

Virginia Wesleyan finishes the regular season 17-1, with a 90-73 victory over Lynchburg.

[hasanova]

It's 6:10 pm and E&H still hasn't posted a story or a boxscore on the GC game, which ended before 4 pm.  What's their usual "timetable"? 

[Pat Coleman]

Except the ODAC isn't the ACC.

Yes, you're right.  I mentioned in my post there were more teams, but less spots in DIII versus DI.  It still doesn't seem reasonable to me, however, that a Top 20 team with only 3 current losses (and 2 of those to the #2 team!) could conceivably NOT make the 59-team postseason.  C'est la vie.

That's only fan speculation. I haven't heard anyone more knowledgeable stand up and say that. I'd have to look at the numbers.

[Pat Coleman]

It's 6:10 pm and E&H still hasn't posted a story or a boxscore on the GC game, which ended before 4 pm.  What's their usual "timetable"? 

E&H? Measure with a calendar or sundial.

[algernon]

It still doesn't seem reasonable to me, however, that a Top 20 team with only 3 current losses (and 2 of those to the #2 team!) could conceivably NOT make the 59-team postseason.  C'est la vie.

Actually, I think that Guilford would still have an excellent shot at a Pool C, even if neither Virginia Wesleyan nor Guilford won the tournament and got the AQ.  The ODAC would then have 3 teams in the tournament -- an AQ, and 2 Pool C's, each team having only 4 losses.

[algernon]

Roanoke has defeated EMU, 79-65.
Bridgewater has defeated Washington & Lee, 48-46.

This is the quarterfinal schedule on Thursday:

1pm:  #1 Virginia Wesleyan (17-1) vs. #8 Washington & Lee (6-12)
3pm:  #4 Emory & Henry (10-8) vs. #5 Hampden-Sydney (10-8)

6pm:  #2 Guilford (15-3) vs. #7 Bridgewater (6-12)
8pm:  #3 Roanoke (11-7) vs. #6 Randolph-Macon (9-9)

[hasanova]

Except the ODAC isn't the ACC.

Yes, you're right.  I mentioned in my post there were more teams, but less spots in DIII versus DI.  It still doesn't seem reasonable to me, however, that a Top 20 team with only 3 current losses (and 2 of those to the #2 team!) could conceivably NOT make the 59-team postseason.  C'est la vie.

That's only fan speculation. I haven't heard anyone more knowledgeable stand up and say that. I'd have to look at the numbers.

You're right, it is just fan speculation.  Guilford is playing well right now, so hopefully they'll have a good ODAC tournament and remove all doubt by either winning it or having a well-played deep run.