MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[Mr. Ypsi]

In the latest South Region rankings, 4 ODAC teams are among the top 6, so IF UT-Dallas and Austin both take their AQ's, the ODAC is in GREAT shape for several Cs.  IF neither takes the AQ, EMU and Guilford would be selected VERY quickly, raising the next ODAC team (currently VaWes) to the table.  They would probably be taken by at least the 13th or 14th (of 19), raising RandyMac to the table. 

This, of course, assumes no changes in the rankings AND wins by other South Region presumed-AQs, but IF HSC, Bridgewater, or whoever were to win the ODAC tourney, an unprecedented FIVE ODAC bids would not seem impossible!

Unlikely, yes; impossible, no.

[Jeremybozz]

1 Guilford
2(tie) Eastern Mennonite
2(tie) Hampden Sydney
4 Virginia Wesleyan
5 Randolph Macon
6 Washington & Lee
7 Roanoke
8 Bridgewater
9 Randolph
10 Lynchburg
11 Emory & Henry

Looks like I picked HSC a little too high in the preseason. Also Roanoke.

[Jeremybozz]

So I need to turn in a D3hoops.com Preseason Top 25 ballot Monday.  Is Guilford a huge favorite in the 2010 ODAC race?  Who are the top other contenders?  Who are the potential ODAC Top 25 teams?    

Thanks for your help!  

I am a lifetime Bridgewater fan/alum but Eastern Mennonite returns all 5 starters from a 15-11 team plus they have added Luke Holloran who played football at VMI last year as well as Eli Crawford,a (JUCO transfer)Junior Forward, who was a star at RE Lee High in Staunton helping lead them to 2 Va. State titles and losing in the title game as a Senior.(With an over 60 game win streak until that Final game.)
Eastern Mennonite will be a top 2 or 3 ODAC team this year and will be even better in 2010-2011.

[Jeremybozz]

My own Preseason Ranking:

1) Guilford
2) Hampden-Sydney
3) Virginia Wesleyan
4) EMU
5) Bridgewater
6) Randolph-Macon
7) Roanoke
8 ) Washington & Lee
9) Randolph
10) Emory & Henry
11) Lynchburg

HSC and BC were a bit picked a bit high but a good job for the most part.

[Jeremybozz]

Here's mine:

1. VWC
2. GC
3. EMU
4. HSC
5. W&L
6. RMC
7. BC
8. RC
9.E&H
10.Randolph College
11.LC

Good overall job.

[Jeremybozz]

Here is my ODAC predicted order of finish for the regular season taking into consideration the unbalanced league schedule and some teams having an easier go of it than others with the schedule:
1.  Guilford-should be a lock, they also had a great recruiting year
2.  EMU-lots of talent-chemistry will be a key
3.  VWC-solid recruiting year with some talented kids returning
4.  RMC-Good nucleus with a fresh approach on the sideline will be good in the long run for this bunch
5.  HSC-with Vick at the helm-trust me these guys will be back at the top regularly sooner than later
6.  RC-enough talent to possibly finish a spot or two higher
7.  Actually lost quite a bit of production, still have Trawick, very poor recruiting year
8.  W&L-interested to see these big guys that were mentioned earlier
9.  Randolph-Coach Nunally does one heck of a job with this program
10.  E&H-hope to see some improvement out of the wasps
11.  LC-no woolridge but a D1 transfer and some other good recruits-could surprise and move up

Regardless, I'm sure I will still be way off as we all know what can happen in the ODAC!

Other than Roanoke(and who could have seen that coming?) an excellent job.

[Jeremybozz]

Here's a published look at the 2009-10 ODAC preseason coaches' poll - my remarks are in Blue parentheses:

(first-place votes in parentheses)

1. Guilford (10) 119 (had to be one 3rd place vote - sorry, I'm not seeing it)

2. Virginia Wesleyan (1) 103 (actually should be 2T and I'm not seeing this 1st place vote, but time will tell)

2. Randolph-Macon 103 (actually should be 2T - I think RMC's still a contender without Rhoades and Short)

3. Eastern Mennonite 83 (actually, should be 4 - but backs up our expectations for an improved EMU squad)

4. Hampden-Sydney 80 (actually should be 5 - HSC's always tough)

5. Roanoke 63 (actually should be 6 - the Maroons have started fast, but faded)

6. Bridgewater 54 (actually should be 7 - lost a few players, but have talent)

7. Washington and Lee 44 (actually should be 8 - heard they recruited well and have Caleb Kimborough as an assistant!)

8. Emory & Henry 36 (actually should be 9 - I think "the System" is about done in Emory!)

10. Randolph 24 (Yaay!  Their position is correct!  Making waves, but not there yet!)

11. Lynchburg 17 (I think the only reason they won't finish 12th is because Shenandoah is hoping to join only for football at the moment!)

bump

[Jeremybozz]

BC and Randolph played some very close games with BC losing by 3 at home and winning by 4 at Randolph. It should be a great ODAC tourney game at BC on Tuesday.
Now, if BC were to win, I totally respect what the Royals have accomplished and they earned the #1 seed but after BC outscored EMU 170-169 in the 2 meetings the Eagles would not be in awe of the Royals in Salem.
First things first, the Eagles certainly can't look past an equally efficient Randolph team.

[algernon]

Last ranking and what's happened since:
1. ODAC:  Eastern Mennonite 14-2 18-3:  3 more wins
2. ODAC:  Guilford 20-2 20-2:  3 more wins
3. ASC: Texas-Dallas 17-3 18-4:  3 ASC wins
4. ODAC:  ODAC:  Virginia Wesleyan 18-3 20-3: Slaughtered by EMU, beat Hampden-Sydney.
5. SCAC:  Austin 18-5 18-5:  Beat Hendrix, lost to Millsaps.
6. ODAC:  Randolph-Macon 13-4 19-4:  Beat Lynchburg, lost to Hampden-Sydney.
7. Pool B: Maryville (Tenn.) 13-3 19-4:  Beat Covenant, slaughtered Piedmont.
8. ASC:  Mary Hardin-Baylor 17-5 17-6:  Beat Sul Ross State & Howard Payne

So this is my take for the next ranking on the 24th:
1. ODAC:  Eastern Mennonite 17-2 21-3
2. ODAC:  Guilford 23-2 23-2
3. ASC: Texas-Dallas 20-3 21-4
4. Pool B: Maryville (Tenn.) 15-3 21-4  
5. ODAC:  Virginia Wesleyan 19-4 21-4
6. SCAC:  Austin 19-6 19-6
7. ASC:  Mary Hardin-Baylor 19-5 19-6
8. ODAC:  Randolph-Macon 14-5 20-5

There are 19 Pool C bids .... and while it certainly isn't required that they be evenly distributed across regions (which would be 2.375 Pool Cs/region), there will be enough competition for Pool Cs in the various regions that it seems highly unlikely that the South will get more than 4 Pool Cs.

So, if all of the top teams win their conferences (Texas - Dallas wins the ASC, Austin wins the SCAC, and EMU wins the ODAC), then 4 Pool Cs from the South would probably include (1) Guilford, (2) Virginia Wesleyan, (3) Mary Hardin-Baylor, (4) RMC.  It does seem possible that RMC could be the 4th ODAC team in the tournament ...... however, given what's happened to Regional #8 teams that don't get their AQ, I think that all of the stars would have to align just perfectly for RMC to be the ODAC's 3rd Pool C bid.

[2RMCFans]

"2RMCFans .... You might want to read a bit more carefully.  As I stated earlier, the Yellow Jackets will have 6 losses if they fail to win the tournament and thereby get the AQ bid...."    

So noted, and with apologies to you for the misunderstanding.  We clearly spend too much time cheering our team on; and, not enough time projecting losses. 

Mr. Ypsi, thanks for the additional information & the glimmer of hope.

GO JACKETS!!!

[Jacketlawyer]

Recall LC beating Macon when Macon was the #1 seed.

Many Tiger fans recall Macon's loss to Lynchburg in 2004 with some degree of guilt about the delight they felt  .... 

  Don't remind me. . .

But Macon's first round exits usually come to a team they swept during the regular season.  Since Jackets and Tigers have one regular season game each, hopefully we get the monkey off our back this year.


I know this line of thinking is very Pollyanna-ish and unsound, but hey, you buy the ticket, take the ride.

[hasanova]

FYI - The Guilford College Quaker Club will host a pregame reception for members and friends in one of the hospitality rooms at the Salem Civic Center on Friday.  GC plays either Lynchburg or Roanoke at 6, so we'll be ready around 5 pm.  If the Quakers advance, Saturday and Sunday are possibities as well.

Teams are assigned a side of the Civic Center, so just follow any signs.

[ziggy]

There are 19 Pool C bids .... and while it certainly isn't required that they be evenly distributed across regions (which would be 2.375 Pool Cs/region), there will be enough competition for Pool Cs in the various regions that it seems highly unlikely that the South will get more than 4 Pool Cs.

So, if all of the top teams win their conferences (Texas - Dallas wins the ASC, Austin wins the SCAC, and EMU wins the ODAC), then 4 Pool Cs from the South would probably include (1) Guilford, (2) Virginia Wesleyan, (3) Mary Hardin-Baylor, (4) RMC.  It does seem possible that RMC could be the 4th ODAC team in the tournament ...... however, given what's happened to Regional #8 teams that don't get their AQ, I think that all of the stars would have to align just perfectly for RMC to be the ODAC's 3rd Pool C bid.

Another poster and I went through the selection process to put together a projected field based on results through last night. We ended up with Pool C bids for Guilford, Virginia Wesleyan, and Randolph-Macon. Mary Hardin-Baylor was the team on the board for the south region after we had selected all 19 pool c's. You can use the link in my sig for more info.

[algernon]

ziggy ..... Thanks for your post.  Two thoughts:  (1) It will be interesting to see whether RMC is ranked ahead of or behind Mary Hardin-Baylor in the next regional ranking.  (2) As you've said, RMC could get in if all of the higher seeds win the AQ.  However, as we all know, that never happens.  Each year, there are a number of excellent teams that fail to win their AQ and take one of the Pool Cs instead .... leaving fewer available for teams like RMC.

RMC has a route to the NCAAs ..... winning the ODAC tournament.  But I think that there is little to no chance that all of the stars will align so perfectly for RMC that the Yellow Jackets will get into the tournament without winning their next 3 games.

[ziggy]

ziggy ..... Thanks for your post.  Two thoughts:  (1) It will be interesting to see whether RMC is ranked ahead of or behind Mary Hardin-Baylor in the next regional ranking.  (2) As you've said, RMC could get in if all of the higher seeds win the AQ.  However, as we all know, that never happens.  Each year, there are a number of excellent teams that fail to win their AQ and take one of the Pool Cs instead .... leaving fewer available for teams like RMC.

To let you in on a little "man behind the curtain" stuff, RMC came off our board as the #5 Pool C. Mary Hardin-Baylor went on next and stayed there because their strength of schedule ranks #294, RMC's is #20. Guilford, Virginia Wesleyan and RMC all have very good SOS numbers with tournament level winning percentages to match.

Edit: Eastern Mennonite falls into the same boat as the other three. It is really looking like a Pool A and three Pool C scenario no matter how the conference tournament plays out.