MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[jknezek]

i recently ran some efficiency matrices and was surprised to find hampden-sydney in the top 5 in the nation.  Is there any chance they get a Pool C bid, because if they did they would be scary for any non-Southern team in an NCAA game?

Were they to finish second in the ODAC tournament they would have an extremely long-shot prayer of getting in. Say every conference was won by the team that was expected to win, and in the vast majority of cases the number 2 and 3 team in those conferences were eliminated in the first round. Realistically, I would say the only way HSC gets in this year is by winning the ODAC automatic bid.

[jknezek]

W&L topples E&H for the second time this season to earn the reward of playing Virginia Wesleyan for the second time in five days. Here's hoping they learned something from the recent 28 point shelling. Game 1 at home the Generals tried to run with them and that didn't work out, game two they tried to slow them down, and that didn't work out. Game 3 they are going to... well, we'll see.

Nice win for the guys though tonight. .500 on the season was about where I thought we were pre-season, 5-11 in conference was a little disappointing. Good win against R-MC, but too many disappointments like the close loss to Bridgewater and bad losses to Randolph (twice), Roanoke and EMU. Some of those need to be wins if you want to stake a claim to the middle of the conference. Going 1-7 against the top 5 tournament seeds show that the Generals are still a good few steps back from the big boys, despite the now almost annual upset of one highly ranked team.

Good luck on Friday Generals!

[algernon]

Friday's ODAC Tournament schedule will be (with, for your consideration, each team's AWAY conference record in parentheses):

1pm:  #1 VWC (7-1) vs. #9 W&L (2-6)
3pm:  #4 HSC (4-4) vs. #5 Lynchburg (4-4)
6pm:  #2 RMC (4-4) vs. #7 EMU (2-6)
8pm:  #3 Guilford (4-4) vs. #6 Randolph (2-6)

[HSCDad]

onetinsoldier - certainly would like to see the efficiency matries that you ran on H-SC.  Thanks

[2RMCFans]

Now that the pairings are all set... good luck to everyone in Salem this weekend.

GO JACKETS!!!!

[Brian Hamilton]

Algernon,
Should W&L be 3-6 since they had to win on the road to advance to Salem?

[DeWayneCarter]

I think its time I reveal my true identity on this board...

My name is not DeWayne Carter.... I am in fact Chris Baynham, former VWC Marlin and PROUD VWC Alumn.... DeWayne Carter happens to be the real name of my favorite rapper so there you have it!

With that being said, as a player I always enjoyed the trip to Salem for the ODAC tourney. Everything from the good food at the ODAC banquet, to the highlight videos, to playing in a bigger building under the bright lights against in a tournament against the best league in the country always made the ODAC tournament my favorite time of the year. Coach Macedo always told us that he wanted us to be the team having the longest stay at that Holiday Inn, and I'm sure he's told them the same thing going in to this years ODAC Tourney! Go Marlins!

[algernon]

i recently ran some efficiency matrices and was surprised to find hampden-sydney in the top 5 in the nation.  Is there any chance they get a Pool C bid, because if they did they would be scary for any non-Southern team in an NCAA game?

Were they to finish second in the ODAC tournament they would have an extremely long-shot prayer of getting in. Say every conference was won by the team that was expected to win, and in the vast majority of cases the number 2 and 3 team in those conferences were eliminated in the first round. Realistically, I would say the only way HSC gets in this year is by winning the ODAC automatic bid.

I was going to disagree with you, jknezek, and say that Hampden-Sydney wouldn't even have an extremely long-shot prayer of getting in as a Pool C, even if they were to lose the ODAC championship in quadruple OT.  However, I will agree with what you say, that if every conference was won by the team that was expected to win and a number of #2 and #3 teams were eliminated early, that Hampden-Sydney could get into the tournament .... and I think we would agree that the chances of that happening are one in a million, that the Tigers will not get into the NCAAs unless they defeat (1) Lynchburg, (2) RMC/EMU, and (3) VWC/Guilford/Randolph/W&L.

Go TIGERS!  2 days until the first test at 3PM on Friday!

[algernon]

I think its time I reveal my true identity on this board...

My name is not DeWayne Carter.... I am in fact Chris Baynham, former VWC Marlin and PROUD VWC Alumn.... DeWayne Carter happens to be the real name of my favorite rapper so there you have it!

With that being said, as a player I always enjoyed the trip to Salem for the ODAC tourney. Everything from the good food at the ODAC banquet, to the highlight videos, to playing in a bigger building under the bright lights against in a tournament against the best league in the country always made the ODAC tournament my favorite time of the year. Coach Macedo always told us that he wanted us to be the team having the longest stay at that Holiday Inn, and I'm sure he's told them the same thing going in to this years ODAC Tourney! Go Marlins!

Thanks, "DeWayneCarter" .... Will you be heading to Salem on Friday?

[DeWayneCarter]

Unfortunately I wont be in attendance, but I will definitely be watching the games online this weekend!

[algernon]

Algernon,
Should W&L be 3-6 since they had to win on the road to advance to Salem?

Good observation, Brian. 

I think it's interesting to look at how these teams have done on the road.  The Marlins have clearly been the best on the road this year!

[jknezek]

I was going to disagree with you, jknezek, and say that Hampden-Sydney wouldn't even have an extremely long-shot prayer of getting in as a Pool C, even if they were to lose the ODAC championship in quadruple OT.  However, I will agree with what you say, that if every conference was won by the team that was expected to win and a number of #2 and #3 teams were eliminated early, that Hampden-Sydney could get into the tournament .... and I think we would agree that the chances of that happening are one in a million, that the Tigers will not get into the NCAAs unless they defeat (1) Lynchburg, (2) RMC/EMU, and (3) VWC/Guilford/Randolph/W&L.

Go TIGERS!  2 days until the first test at 3PM on Friday!

Yep. He asked if there "is any chance" and they are good enough that there is a chance. It's not like they are a sub .500 team, their body of work just isn't anywhere near good enough to be seriously considered for a "C" in any typical year. But until the last bid is handed out, a team with their record, coming from a very good conference, can always hope.

Now, if the question had been "is there a realistic chance" a simple "NO" would have sufficed! Of course, if they want it bad enough, with a little good fortune and a lot of good play, they are certainly capable of garnering the "A". I think we would all consider that significantly more possible than a "C"...

[HSCDad]

South
1 Mary Hardin-Baylor 23-1 24-1
2 Virginia Wesleyan 21-3 22-3
3 Birmingham-Southern 21-1 24-1
4 Randolph-Macon 17-4 20-5
5 Christopher Newport 18-4 21-4
6 Emory 19-5 19-5
7 Hardin-Simmons 17-6 19-6
8 Texas-Dallas 19-4 21-4

Final South Regional Rankings before touraments

[onetinsoldier]

onetinsoldier - certainly would like to see the efficiency matries that you ran on H-SC.  Thanks

Hi HSCdad
i used stats i believe as of the 2/12 report, so last weeks games are not included.  Many people differ on determining a true pace statistic.  But for possessions per game i use (FGAttempts - off rebs +TO + 0.4*FTattempts).  It is fairly generic, but for my purposes does the trick.  For HSC, i had 1486 FGA - 330 off reb + 410 tos * .4*541Fta).  Total possessions / games played gave me 1782/23 = 77.49 possessions per game.  I then factored in their ppg of 89.2 and pts allowed pg of 68. to get an offensive efficiency of 1.15 and def efficiency of 0.88.

Their net effiency of +.27 is second in the country behind MIT.  The thing about those teams is that they play such stifling defense, they can be scary to teams that play only average to slightly above average defense.  As comparison, VA Wesleyan is very close behind at 6th in the country and Randolph Macon is 80th. 

Next week i'd like to run these matrices only looking at last 5-6 weeks to get me better ready for the site's pick em contest.  i'll let you know what i find out about the odac teams. 

[hasanova]

  Scary! Scary would be playing Patrich Henry again.

I feel safe in saying Patrick Henry (the college) would have finished 12th in the ODAC.  Patrick Henry (the person), even though deceased, might have fared a bit better - at least he could make a point every time he was asked to step up to the line.