MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[hasanova]

I think a 7th loss for the Marlins and they won't make it.  Which means they've got to win out through the ODAC tournament.

[jdubyadubya]

and, as we all know, that's hard to do Hasa!

[hasanova]

and, as we all know, that's hard to do Hasa!

Absolutely.  Just for grins and giggles, let's say a team the calibre of VWC (currently 2nd in the ODAC standings) has an 80% chance to win the opening game, a 60% chance to win in the semifinals and a 45% chance to win in the championship, that would be (.8 x .6 x .45) = .216 or a 21.6% chance.  It's tough.

[DeWayneCarter]

I give VWC as good a chance as HSC and RMC and whoever else the contenders are to win the ODAC Tournament. I would never bet against Dave Macedo

[FISHTANKFAN]

The Marlins played last night like they played their first 2 games.  If they could FINALLY keep that momentum, they could beat any team (including HSC).  The BIG question is what team will show up for the next 4 games and the tournament.  Talent won't win alone, nor will desire.  They need to put everything they have on the floor, play smart and disciplined, to have any chance at going to the dance.  With good teams and mediocre teams they have gone 8 straight years to the NCAA.  I will never count them out but its going to take a hellava run to get there this year. Stay tuned.  The next 2 weeks may turn out to be very interesting. HSC has a good team, but their SOS will be low.  VWC had a much tougher schedule, as did most of the other teams in the ODAC. I seriously doubt that VWC would have a 15-6 record had they played the teams HSC did. With 6 losses, that is neither here nor there now.  They have to run the table and/or win the ODAC tournament.  The Marlins will be responsible for their own destiny.  Good luck to all the teams in their last few games and good luck to all in the tournament.  May the best team win.

[2RMCFans]

Good luck to everyone around the ODAC this week.  It's crunch time!

GOOOOOO JACKETS!!!! 

[tigerfanalso]

I can't wait for the HSC vs. RMC matchup tomorrow night. That is going to be a dog fight. I hope both teams play well and I really hope the officials stay out of the game. You never know how the ODAC officials are going to call the game. Some nights they let them play, other nights they absolutely ruin the game.

[algernon]

The Marlins have only 5 in-region losses and I agree that they could suffer another loss (making it 6 in-region and 7 overall), if it were in the championship game of the ODAC tournament to Hampden-Sydney.  However, another loss before the tournament will mean the Marlins' only shot of getting into the NCAAs is the same as Randolph-Macon  ... that they win the conference championship.

And regarding Strength of Schedule, VWC did NOT have a much tougher schedule than HSC.  These are the ranks of the teams in the ODAC, in terms of SoS, as calculated by PrestoSports and reported at http://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2012-13/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

1 Randolph-Macon       0.570
2 Guilford        0.542
3 Shenandoah       0.532
4 Roanoke       0.529
5 Virginia Wesleyan       0.523
6 Hampden-Sydney       0.519
7 Washington and Lee       0.515
8 Eastern Mennonite    0.514
9 Lynchburg       0.504
10 Emory and Henry       0.504
11 Randolph        0.483
12 Bridgewater        0.481

As you can see, there isn't much difference in the Strength of Schedule between VWC and HSC.  In fact, Virginia Wesleyan did not have to travel to either Randolph or Randolph-Macon this year, whereas Hampden-Sydney had to play Randolph away (in that so-called "gym") and is set to matchup against Randolph-Macon for a second time tomorrow evening.  Double trouble for the Tigers, who won at home, but away is not home.

Randolph-Macon is the only team whose schedule was an unusually tough one this year.

[HSCDad]

Good review, Algernon.  Curious would it change any since H-SC and VWC have played 4 games since the review.  H-SC is 4-0 and VWC is 3-1 during that period?

[FISHTANKFAN]

 Let me clarify my point.  If most of the teams had played HSC's non-conference schedule, the results in the ODAC teams overall records would be much improved.  The conference games are made years in advance and are rotated.  The teams have no choice in this matter.  I was referring to the non-conference games. I should not have said SOS but overall schedule.  My error.  I applaud a team like RMC whose chooses to play a more difficult schedule, whatever the outcome. Maybe HSC could not find stronger teams to play.  Sometimes that is the case.  Regardless, my entire point was that the Marlins have to run the table and/or win the ODAC championship to have chance to dance.  End of story. 

[yj424]

Still one must wonder...let's say that VW and or Randolph/Guilford/ Lynchburg/RMC  make the championship game of ODAC Tournament, meaning of course hsc has been upset, how will those home victories over Huntingdon(5-15), Piedmont(0-7 and no longer competing) and Mary Grove(yes Mary Grove at 3-23) figure into sos and a pool c bid for the tigers?

[HSCDad]

 I understand the SOS but an interesting thing has happened for H-SC this year.  If you have watched them play, they have almost 3 full teams that can come in and hold their own.  Granted some of the rotations are stronger than others but even the lessor can run hard for a few minutes. Look at how on many occassions, they have different players every game with most assist, most rebounds, and most points. This has allowed H-SC to have strong second halves whereas the other teams start to show some tiredness as their good players have so much time on the court. The weaker schedule has allowed a lot of players to gain a lot of play time and. therefore, experience.  Maybe the granting of post play requires SOS, understandably, but good-old winning gets the same thing and you also get to play at home or closer to home.

[algernon]

In addition to the 3 non-conference victories you've mentioned, the Tigers also had 5 other non-conference victories ... including a 24-point win over Mary Washington (11-10), a win over Wesley (16-5 ... and this is a team that beat Virginia Wesleyan, St. Mary's, Cabrini, and Salisbury and should get ranked among the top 5 in the Midatlantic Region), a 34-point victory over a decent Methodist squad (8-11), and a 15-point win over Johns Hopkins (14-7).

That's on top of multiple ODAC victories against talented teams with high Win % ... 2 wins against Randolph (17-4), 2 victories over Lynchburg (16-5), a split against Guilford (16-5), and one victory to date against Randolph-Macon (13-8).  The Tigers' 19 wins include lots of games against very solid teams, and their current in-region SoS is 148th of 411 D3 teams.

The Tigers are currently 19-2 and are hoping to get their 20th win in Ashland tomorrow evening. An almost worst-case scenario:  They lose to both VWC and RMC (which isn't likely) and finish the regular season with a 21-4 record (assuming wins against Bridgewater at home and Emory and Henry on the road).  Then a win in the quarters and a loss in the semis would leave them with a 22-5 record.  Even this "almost worst-case record", with an above average Strength of Schedule, should result in a Pool C bid.      Hopefully, they finish 25-3 or 26-2, with an ODAC Championship, a #1 South Region rank, and the opportunity to host as many as 3 NCAA tournament games on March 2, March 9, and March 16.

[Seatfiller]

My picks for todays games:

Roanoke at Lynchburg Lynchburg has been pretty good and lost a couple of close games while Noke can't finish close games, Lynchburg big in this one

Bridgewater at SU  Bridgewater big in this one, SU might be the first team since ? to not win a game in the ODAC this year

VWC vs EMU  VWC in a close one, EMUs up tempo game will help VWC

E and H at W and L Washington and Lee is probably the most inconsistent team in the ODAC  but I got them in a close one today against Emory and Henry

Guilford at Randolph I have Randolph in a tight one today but really this could go either way, might as well turn into the game when theres 3 minutes left because this one is going to go back and forth all game

HSC vs RMC  I'm going with a upset and choosing RMC, HSC is good but still very beatable if you have strong posts I'd look at the Lamar Giggets and Harrison George matchup as they key matchup in this one but you can't count out Willamson for HSC either

[jdubyadubya]

My picks =
LC
BC
VWC
W&L
GC
HSC

And, SU will not win a game in the ODAC unless they get serious about playing basketball in the ODAC and that translates to a new facility. They are going to lose a perfectly good coach in Rob Pryor if they don't watch out.