MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[algernon]

You have to admire W&L's consistency!

That's true!

In fact, in 2009, as the #8 seed, Washington and Lee they not only won their play-in game, but also knocked out #1 Guilford in the quarters and #4 Bridgewater in the semis to get all the way to the ODAC Championship game, where the Generals lost by just 4 points to #7 Virginia Wesleyan (which had knocked out #2 Randolph-Macon in the quarters and #6 Hampden-Sydney in the semis). 

The ODAC's #1, #2, and #3 teams were all knocked out in the 2009 tournament's quarterfinals that Friday.

[jknezek]

You have to admire W&L's consistency!

That's true!

In fact, in 2009, as the #8 seed, Washington and Lee they not only won their play-in game, but also knocked out #1 Guilford in the quarters and #4 Bridgewater in the semis to get all the way to the ODAC Championship game, where the Generals lost by just 4 points to #7 Virginia Wesleyan (which had knocked out #2 Randolph-Macon in the quarters and #6 Hampden-Sydney in the semis). 

The ODAC's #1, #2, and #3 teams were all knocked out in the 2009 tournament's quarterfinals that Friday.

Pretty sure that is as close as W&L ever got to the NCAA tourney.  I'd have to check the W&L site but I don't think the Generals have made it in the Odac era. Maybe pre-1980...
Edit -- not a bad guess. The Generals made the tourney 4 times between 76 and 80, losing in the first round each time. Compliments of the Generals sports info site

[Brian Hamilton]

LC up big vs SU 85-65 with under 2 minutes to play.
Roanoke beating BC 66-46 with just under 5 minutes left.
EMU is ahead of W&L 52-44 with about 2 minutes to go.
The big surprise was E&H who led but now trails 50-41 with about 6 minutes to go.

[Brian Hamilton]

Finals
LC defeats SU 90-65.
EMU defeats W&L 58-52.
RoC beats BC 76-68
GC roars back to beat E&H 70-60.

[algernon]

#5 Lynchburg slaughters #12 Shenandoah, 90-65.
#6 Guilford trails by 9 at halftime to #11 Emory & Henry, but pulls even with 9 minutes to go and has gone on to win, 70-60.
#10 Roanoke pulls off an upset at #7 Bridgewater, winning 76-68 (after leading by 76-59 with 45 seconds to play)!
#9 EMU ends W&L's string of reliable trips to Salem with a 58-52 win in Lexington.

Quarterfinals - Friday, February 22 - Salem Civic Center:

     1pm: #9 Eastern Mennonite (15-11) vs. #1 Virginia Wesleyan (19-6)
     3pm: #5 Lynchburg (19-7) vs. #4 Randolph (20-5)

     6pm: #10 Roanoke (11-15) vs. #2 Hampden-Sydney (22-3) 
     8pm: #6 Guilford (18-8) vs. #3 Randolph-Macon (16-9)

[Seatfiller]

Finals
LC defeats SU 90-65.
EMU defeats W&L 58-52.
RoC beats BC 76-68
GC roars back to beat E&H 70-60.

Roanoke with the good win funny how BC beating Guilford actually helped Roanoke as I thought they had no chance to beat W and L or EMU again.  Next up Hampden Sydney which is virtually impossible to beat but if we somehow win i'll have to take the day off work saturday and drive down to Salem 

[hasanova]

A lacklustre first half for the Quakers last night ... shots and breaks were not going our way.  For the first 20 minutes, the Wasps played like they wanted it more.  GC trailed E&H 31-22 at intermission, but went ahead for the first time at 42-41 after trailing by 10 at 36-26.  With a series of good second half runs, Guilford built as much as a 16-point lead.  Hopefully, this second-half momentum (48 points) will carry over to the RMC game Friday night!  Matt McCarthy continues to  sparkle for the Quakers, scoring all 17 of his points in a decisive 6-minute second half spurt.  Jake Hopkins and Will Freeman with very solid outings as well.  Honestly, E&H looked like a team that should have won more than four games this season ... best wishes to their seniors.

[Seatfiller]

A lacklustre first half for the Quakers last night ... shots and breaks were not going our way.  For the first 20 minutes, the Wasps played like they wanted it more.  GC trailed E&H 31-22 at intermission, but went ahead for the first time at 42-41 after trailing by 10 at 36-26.  With a series of good second half runs, Guilford built as much as a 16-point lead.  Hopefully, this second-half momentum (48 points) will carry over to the RMC game Friday night!  Matt McCarthy continues to  sparkle for the Quakers, scoring all 17 of his points in a decisive 6-minute second half spurt.  Jake Hopkins and Will Freeman with very solid outings as well.  Honestly, E&H looked like a team that should have won more than four games this season ... best wishes to their seniors.

I've watched and kept track via live stats a lot of Emory and Henry games and I can't tell you how many times they were up the entire first half then get blown out in the second half

But my predictions for the tournament:

1pm: #9 Eastern Mennonite (15-11) vs. #1 Virginia Wesleyan (19-6)    VWC in a closer than expected game, potential upset
3pm: #5 Lynchburg (19-7) vs. #4 Randolph (20-5) Randolph in a close one, if Hunt gets 25 points or more no question they will win

Randolph vs. Virginia Wesleyan, Too many athletes for Randolph to deal with, but they'll find a way to keep it close     

6pm: #10 Roanoke (11-15) vs. #2 Hampden-Sydney (22-3) , Hampden Sydney in a blow out, hope I'm wrong but I doubt it
     8pm: #6 Guilford (18-8) vs. #3 Randolph-Macon (16-9), This can go either way but the way Guilford has been playing lately I'm taking the safe pick with Macon

Randolph Macon vs. Hampden Sydney, This could potentially be a blow out again but Macon should find a way to stick close to them

Championship: Hampden Sydney vs. Virginia Wesleyan, This is going to come down to the last minute like it did a week ago but I'm sticking with VWC who I picked in the preseason to win the ODAC

[algernon]

3pm: #5 Lynchburg (19-7) vs. #4 Randolph (20-5) Randolph in a close one, if Hunt gets 25 points or more no question they will win

I wondered about the statistical basis for your prediction that Hunt scoring over 25 guarantees a Randolph victory, Seatfiller .... and discovered that the Wildcats are, in fact, a bit more likely to win when Colton Hunt gets 25 points or more, but their victory is by no means guaranteed:

• When Hunt scores 25 or more:   Wildcats are 12-2  (.857)
• When Hunt scores less than 25:  Wildcats are 8-3   (.727)

Of course, it is possible to also look at the relationship of scoring to Wildcat victories for other Wildcat players (and I have).  For instance:

• When Battaglia scores 12 or more:  Wildcats are 9-2  (819)
• When Battaglia scores less than 12:  Wildcats are 11-3   (.786)

And this one is the most interesting:

• When Ehilegbu scores 11 or more:  Wildcats are 11-0  (1.000)
• When Ehilegbu scores less than 11:  Wildcats are 8-5   (.615)

It seems to me that, when the Wildcats play, if Ehilegbu gets 11 points or more, no question they will win!   

[algernon]

My current South Region Ranking projection through today.  Included are regional and overall records, Regional Win %, SoS, and Record against Regionally Ranked Opponents: 

    Team                                 RegWL   Overall     RegW%   SoS   RegRkOppo.
1.  Hampden-Sydney  (ODAC)     18-3        22-3        .857     .523         4-2
2.  Emory (UAA)                         17-6         17-6       .739      .568        4-4
3.  Virginia Wesleyan  (ODAC)      16-5       19-6        .762      .534         7-2
4.  Mary Hardin-Baylor  (ASC)      21-4        21-4       .840      .540         3-2
5.  Concordia (Texas) (ASC)         18-4         20-5     .818       .523         2-2
6.  Christopher Newport  (USAC)  17-5         18-5      .773      .533         1-2
7.  Randolph (ODAC)                   14-5         20-5      .737      .485         2-3
8.  Texas-Dallas (ASC)                 19-6        19-6       .760      .517         0-3

While I'm pretty clear about the ordering of #4-#8, I'm not at all clear about the ordering of #1-#3.  HSC and VWC have better records against regionally ranked opponents than Emory; Emory has a stronger SoS than VWC or HSC; HSC has 2 fewer losses than either of the other two, Emory has a 9-point win at home against VWC, which has a 1-point win on the road against HSC.  I could rank these teams in any number of ways and it will be interesting to see what the committee does.

However, I'll say that all 3 of these teams will be playing in the NCAA Tournament, either by getting their conference AQ or by getting a Pool C bid.  That seems certain, assuming only that both VWC and HSC make it at least to the semifinals .. and that Emory defeats Covenant (before a likely loss to Rochester).  Mary Hardin-Baylor and Concordia (Texas) have a shot at a Pool C bid, if they get as far as the ASC final, but CNU, Texas-Dallas, and Randolph will almost certainly need to win their conference tournaments and the AQ to get into the NCAAs.  I don't see any of them getting a Pool C bid.

The South Region rankings have just been released.  I've included below the numbers they were working with, including SoS numbers that more up-to-date than what I had been using in my ranking prediction:

   Team                       RegWL   Overall     RegW%   SoS   RegRkOppo.
1 Virginia Wesleyan     16-5    19-6      .762      .549         7-2
2 Hampden-Sydney     18-3    22-3      .857     .507         4-2
3 Mary Hardin-Baylor     21-4    21-4      .840      .533         3-2
4 Christopher Newport   17-5    18-5     .773      .535         0-2
5 Emory                          17-6    17-6      .739      .557        4-4
6 Concordia (Texas)       18-4    20-5      .818       .514         2-2
7 Texas-Dallas                19-6    19-6      .760      .511         0-3
8 Randolph                   14-5    20-5        .737      .502         2-3

I'm not terribly surprised that Virginia Wesleyan has risen to #1, but I really don't understand how Emory dropped below Christopher Newport. 

Nevertheless, I think that Emory still has a better chance at a Pool C bid than Christopher Newport.  They have only one more game, and even a loss to #13 Rochester will not leave them measurably worse off than they are now.  On the other hand, if CNU loses their tournament, their loss to any of the other USA South teams will be more damaging and they'll probably actually come to the table after Emory in the decision-making on Pool C bids. 

[y_jack_lok]

^^^ algernon, I'd bet anything those guys at the NCAA look at your predictions then rank the teams differently just out of spite. You have the same 8 teams, but not a single one in the same position. 

[algernon]

^^^ algernon, I'd bet anything those guys at the NCAA look at your predictions then rank the teams differently just out of spite. You have the same 8 teams, but not a single one in the same position. 

y_jack_lok:   I hadn't thought of that, but you're probably right ....   

[Seatfiller]

3pm: #5 Lynchburg (19-7) vs. #4 Randolph (20-5) Randolph in a close one, if Hunt gets 25 points or more no question they will win

I wondered about the statistical basis for your prediction that Hunt scoring over 25 guarantees a Randolph victory, Seatfiller .... and discovered that the Wildcats are, in fact, a bit more likely to win when Colton Hunt gets 25 points or more, but their victory is by no means guaranteed:

• When Hunt scores 25 or more:   Wildcats are 12-2  (.857)
• When Hunt scores less than 25:  Wildcats are 8-3   (.727)

Of course, it is possible to also look at the relationship of scoring to Wildcat victories for other Wildcat players (and I have).  For instance:

• When Battaglia scores 12 or more:  Wildcats are 9-2  (819)
• When Battaglia scores less than 12:  Wildcats are 11-3   (.786)

And this one is the most interesting:

• When Ehilegbu scores 11 or more:  Wildcats are 11-0  (1.000)
• When Ehilegbu scores less than 11:  Wildcats are 8-5   (.615)

It seems to me that, when the Wildcats play, if Ehilegbu gets 11 points or more, no question they will win!   

Haha I stand corrected

[jdubyadubya]

My picks going forward:
2/22> VWC
          Randolph
          HSC
          Guilford
2/23> VWC
          HSC
2/24> VWC in OT

[yj424]

Well, here we are on the eve of ODAC Tournament. Randoph's Clay Nunnaly and Colton Hunt COY and POY. George and Williamson on first team. I don't know how this snub of George for POY will effect him and team mates but I'm sure Algernon will rise up amongst the fans.

Macon has tough quarter final game against an 18-8 Guilford squad that can light up the threes. Winner of that game has the luxury of going up against the most talented team in ODAC, HSC who is already looking to host a first round game in NCAA.

Where will the upsets come, if any? Or will the top 2 seeds run the table for a heated rematch?

Weather might be pretty dicey tomorrow morning and afternoon so please all drive safely.