MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[algernon]

How many games can a team lose and still have an opportunity for "pool C" ? I know it depends on the season/circumstances but historically speaking, what is a realistic win/loss record for "pool C" consideration ?

As an ODAC team, a 22-6 record will probably get you in, and 21-7 MIGHT be good enough. 

Last year, nationally, UW-Platteville (19-9), Tufts (17-9), Augustana (19-8), Texas-Dallas (20-7), Brandeis (17-8), Thomas More (23-5), SUNY-Old Westbury (22-4), and Albright (20-6) were teams that didn't quite get a Pool C bid.

Wesley (20-7), Transylvania (20-7); Stevens (22-5); Plattsburgh State (19-8).  These were among the last to make the tournament.

The Tigers could probably lose 2 more during the regular season, if they make it to the ODAC Championship game before losing a 3rd game ... which would leave them 21-7.  That they played Williams so close will be helpful if they're completely on the bubble.

In addition to upcoming games against teams where they "should" get the win, the Tigers have a home game against Lynchburg, a game at Guilford, and 2 games against both RMC and VWC ... and these will be real tests.  Whether they'll go 14-0 or 10-4 over the rest of the season remains to be seen, but there's certainly no game in the rest of their schedule that they can't win.  There are 3-4 excellent teams in the conference and another 4-5 that can get a win in any game, but I don't think there's any team that is actually looking better than the Tigers at this point.  If they perform as they did against Williams, they will be tough to defeat in the regular season or the tournament.

[Seatfiller]

Roanoke beats Immaculata University  70-61

EMU beats VA-Lynchburg 78-70

VA Wes beats NC Wes 71-79 in OT

[algernon]

Unbeaten Messiah (9-0) plays at Guilford (9-2) this afternoon. Big test for the Quakers, whose most impressive victory to date was their home win against RMC.

RMC (6-4) is on the road, with a game at Gettysburg (4-6) in which they should be heavily favored.

W&L (4-6) is in Chicago for a game against the UAA's University of Chicago (6-4) .... and this will be an interesting matchup of 2 mid-level teams from two of D3's top conferences.  Go Generals!

[Titan Q]

How many games can a team lose and still have an opportunity for "pool C" ? I know it depends on the season/circumstances but historically speaking, what is a realistic win/loss record for "pool C" consideration ?

Here is some info on last year's Pool C teams...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1499584#msg1499584


There are 3 key data points:
* In-region winning %
* In-region strength of schedule
* In-region results vs regionally ranked

(Note - the games counted as "in-region" changed dramatically this year.  If teams play 70% of their games vs in-region teams, then all games vs D3 teams count as in-region.)

[y_jack_lok]

RMC (6-4) is on the road, with a game at Gettysburg (4-6) in which they should be heavily favored.

W&L (4-6) is in Chicago for a game against the UAA's University of Chicago (6-4) .... and this will be an interesting matchup of 2 mid-level teams from two of D3's top conferences.  Go Generals!

It always makes me anxious when this kind of expectation gets put on the team having to travel. Favored, yes. Heavily is what scares me. One common opponent in Dickinson who beat Gettysburg at Gettysburg while R-MC beat Dickinson at home.

And I agree that the W&L/Chicago game is an interesting matchup. We have a good UAA team, Wash U, out here in St. Louis who I will be watching play today against Webster University, the SLIAC team whose games I have been attending for 13 seasons now. This is a case where I might be willing to say that Wash U should be heavily favored, because they are the home team while Webster has to travel 5 miles for this game.

[2RMCFans]

GO JACKETS!!!!

[algernon]

How many games can a team lose and still have an opportunity for "pool C" ? I know it depends on the season/circumstances but historically speaking, what is a realistic win/loss record for "pool C" consideration ?

Here is some info on last year's Pool C teams...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1499584#msg1499584


There are 3 key data points:
* In-region winning %
* In-region strength of schedule
* In-region results vs regionally ranked

(Note - the games counted as "in-region" changed dramatically this year.  If teams play 70% of their games vs in-region teams, then all games vs D3 teams count as in-region.)

Thanks, Titan Q.  ODAC teams' conference schedule of 16 games is 64% of their entire regular season schedule, so it is a safe bet that all games vs D3 teams will count as in-region for all of the ODAC teams.

VWC's game against Apprentice won't count, nor will Lynchburg's game against Valley Forge Christian, but the final In-region winning %, In-region strength of schedule, and In-region results vs regionally ranked opponents will be the same for many ODAC teams as the Overall winning %, Overall strength of schedule, and Overall results vs regionally ranked opponents.

[algernon]

Regionally-ranked opponents includes any team that is regionally ranked at any point during the season?

I'm betting that some of the regionally-ranked opponents that will count for ODAC teams may include:

Guilford
Hampden-Sydney
Virginia Wesleyan
Randolph-Macon
Scranton
Christopher Newport
Mary Washington
St. Mary's
Wesley
Cabrini
Springfield
Williams
Birmingham-Southern
Dickinson
Emory

Hampden-Sydney is currently 2-2 against the above-named teams and has another 5 games scheduled against "suspected" .. .. regionally-ranked opponents (Virginia Wesleyan X2, Randolph-Macon X2, and their game at Guilford in 2+ weeks).

Randolph-Macon is currently 2-4 against the above-named teams.

Virginia Wesleyan is currently 1-2 against the above-named teams.

Guilford is currently 1-2 against the above-named teams.

Given ODAC performance to date against regionally-ranked out-of-conference opponents, it seems highly unlikely that the ODAC will get 4 teams into the tournament, as it did last year.  I expect that the conference champion and 1-2 more teams will play in the post-season.  The conference schedule begins in earnest on Tuesday, January 7, and we will see which of the ODAC teams end up on top.

[yj424]

It's January 4th and HSC posters already asking how many losses can a team have to get a pool c bid?!?! The real conference schedule is just about to begin, 2 month's worth, and Tigers already concerned about a pool c bid? Come now, just try to make the top 4 in the ODAC regular season should be goal enough. Tigers have played a tougher OOC schedule than normal, how unusual. However without a freaky come back with 2 treys in the last :06 seconds against Mary Washington and after Baruch ties the game with 5 seconds left  calls a time out they did not have and hsc wins on a technical foul? Tigers could have a .500 record now and no chance of pool c.

Surprise thus far this year in ODAC though is Shenandoah. Winning games this year they might have lost last year.

Let the ODAC games being with good sportsmanship and may that standard always  remain.

[algernon]

Except for a barely-missed 3 near the end of Thursday's game against Williams and duhduhduhduh in games against Carnegie Mellon and Wesley, the Tigers would be 10-1 ....

Come on, now.  There's not a Hampden-Sydney player or fan whose goal is only to make the top four in the ODAC this year.  The Tigers are 1-2 against teams that have no more than 1 loss (#5 Williams,  #20 Wesley, #27 Mary Washington) .... and are 6-2 against teams that DO have more than 1 loss.  They've played only 2 games against teams that have losing records.  The Tigers are good enough to win the ODAC Championship, but hope to at least get a Pool C bid.

[y_jack_lok]

Except for a barely-missed 3 near the end of Thursday's game against Williams and duhduhduhduh in games against Carnegie Mellon and Wesley, the Tigers would be 10-1 ....

Come on, now.  There's not a Hampden-Sydney player or fan whose goal is only to make the top four in the ODAC this year.  The Tigers are 1-2 against teams that have no more than 1 loss (#5 Williams,  #20 Wesley, #27 Mary Washington) .... and are 6-2 against teams that DO have more than 1 loss.  They've played only 2 games against teams that have losing records.  The Tigers are good enough to win the ODAC Championship, but hope to at least get a Pool C bid.

Lots of teams can cite these kinds of "except for" situations. I don't know how the games played out, but R-MC has three losses by a total of 5 points (one to current -- but not for long -- #17 Guilford; current #18 -- but probably moving up at 10-1 -- CNU; and one to a now 10-2 team, Scranton). Perhaps not exactly the same pedigree as the H-SC record, but close. I'm sure there are "except fors" in all those games that could have resulted in the Jackets being 10-1 instead of 7-4. And they had a lead over #4 and undefeaed Cabrini with a couple of minutes left, so "except for" some poor play in the last two minutes resulting in a 7 point loss, the Jackets could be 11-0. Bottom line is, you have to win those games and the NCAA probably doesn't care about the "except fors". 

[2RMCFans]

^^ Great posts from both of you above on "what might have been".  Both the Tigers & the Jackets have lost a few really close games to very difficult opponents.  Which should make them both stronger & keep their long rivalry exciting.

Looked like the Jackets had their hands full yesterday at Gettysburg & won it late in a low scoring game.  Hope they get their game back for this Wed. v. Roanoke in Crenshaw & then on the road v. Lynchburg. 

Good luck to all the ODAC programs as the real season begins.

GO JACKETS!!! 

[ODACATS]

"Good luck to all the ODAC programs as the real season begins"

Many thanks 2RMC - Looking forward to it.  BTW: good win on the road in Gettysburg yesterday - they always seem to put a good team on the floor up there.

[FISHTANKFAN]

 " Coulda, Shouda, Wouda, "  What team cannot say "what if".  Every team would be 11-0 right now if that were the case.  Let's stick to reality.  It is the close games that could go either way that make Division lll so much fun to watch.  We are not even mid-way through the season yet.  Let's wait another 4-5 weeks before we start making any predictions.  "What if's" only count in dreams.  Good luck to all the teams in their pursuit of an ODAC title.                                   

[tigerfanalso]

yj424

I'm not concerned about HSC making the playoffs at this point as much as being curious about the answer to my question.
Looking forward the usual ODAC grind and which team(s) will step up to meet the challenge. Hope to get to a game or two
before the season ends. Good luck to all.