MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[jdubyadubya]

I think you gurus should come up with your own ratings. Something like the "Scottie" ratings, for instance, where you come up with formulae that measures stuff that has no meaning or that people can't understand. Or, how about the "Loesel" ratings, where the popularity of a team is judged by the quality of drinking establishments in a particular town. What are some others?

[algernon]

Unless RMC and VWC totally fall on their tale, the ODAC will have two teams.

There's so much yet to come.  The ODAC could have 1 team in the tournament or it could have 3 teams.  With the field increased from 48 to 58 teams, I have to think that any ODAC team finishing with no more than 5 losses is in a pretty good position to get a tournament bid.  If that's a fair assessment (??), then here's a 3-teams-get-a-bid scenario:

RMC avenges their loss to VWC and also beats everyone else, finishing the regular season with an 17-1 ODAC record (22-3 overall) and is seeded #1 for the tournament.

VWC loses only to RMC and finishes with a 16-2 ODAC record (21-4 overall) and is seeded #2.

HSC finishes 3rd and Guilford 4th.  The first 4 seeds win in the quarterfinals.  #4 Guilford upsets #1 RMC in the semis and #2 VWC beats #3 HSC.  Guilford then defeats VWC in the conference championship and gets the automatic bid.

RMC, with a 23-4 record after their loss in the semifinals, also gets a bid.  VWC, with their 23-5 record (including a 21-2 record in their last 23 games) also gets a bid.

While this is certainly not a very likely scenario, it may be within the broad range of possibilities.

[Brian Hamilton]

TFA,
SOS is one of the criteria, but the selection committee does not use the Massey ratings for SOS.  They use a formula called the QOWI (Quality of Wins Index) which is described in the rulebook.  Therefore, Massey ratings are just used for comparisons by fans such as ourselves.  Their are other posters who could give you QOWI numbers, but last I checked, RMC's QOWI was in the high 9's which means they are in the top 30-40 of DIII.  

I also want to mention that ratings such as Massey tend to be very off.  Since there are less inter-regional games in DIII it is much more difficult to determine the quality of the teams in one region as compared to another.  Historically, the South region is one region that has not been considered strong because of their showings in the NCAAs.  HSCs two runs to the FF have helped to change that, but we are still not going to get the respect that the Midwest, West and Great lakes regions get until we compete on a national level year in and year out.  I guess this rant is just to indicate that ratings such as Massey are very likely using a conferences past performance to assist in determining SOS which is not always the best indicator.

[tigerfanalso]

Brian

Thanks for your clarification, seems that you are well informed as to what matters and what doesn't matter regarding the selection process for the D111 tourney.  Thanks for the info !!!

[ruthless]

I would be willing to bet than neither RMC or VWC win the rest of their games in the  ODAC. We haven't had the traditional upset this year. It's going to happen it's simply a matter of time.

[Jacketlawyer]

Regarding Steelyglen's decision regarding the Divac Matter, we should:
... Suspend the Pick'em contest and assemble a committee headed by Warren Thompson to investigate the whole smelly mess.

Three questions:

1. How'd I get involved in this?
2. What "smelly mess"?
3. What's the story with Wansley (injury?)?

Obviously, I haven't been keeping up with ODAC affairs. 

Wansley has a strained ligament in his knee and is reportedly day-to-day.  This, according to the RT-D.

I want no part of a "smelly mess."

Actually I think "Loesel" ratings are probably some of the more pertinent around.  Those stats speak to me, baby!!

[algernon]

but last I checked, RMC's QOWI was in the high 9's which means they are in the top 30-40 of DIII. 

Pat's computed the Top 100 in QOWi through games of Thursday, Jan. 19.  (There are 397 teams in DIII, an average of 50 teams per region.) 

These are the 2 ODAC teams in the Top 100:

#23 - Randolph-Macon    10.385
#56 - Virginia Wesleyan    9.688

[algernon]

If I've figured it correctly, HSC's QOWi is 8.692.

[tigerfanalso]

Don't those numbers indicate that HSC is out of the tornament unless they win the ODAC and that VWC is on the bubble? The way I see it the ODAC is this; the only way to get two teams into the tournament is one of two ways: a team other than RMC or VWC wins the confernce tourny and the winner beats either RMC or VWC in the championship game or RMC and VWC play each other in the championship game and VWC beats RMC. RMC ranking would be high enough to get an at large

[narch]

C.  Forget about the whole thing and call Narch the winner of the Pick'em.

great idea, but i want to EARN my title as the odac pick'em winner, but more importantly, i want to finish ahead of goose13

by the way, i think that simply ignoring any picks which are not clear is the way to go, although i think in this case, mr_divac got a reprieve...i think that would have been a loss for him

[jdubyadubya]

Ruthless - what are you smoking, dude? The likelihood of VWC winning ALL its remaining games is very good.

[mybleedinghands]

Ruthless - what are you smoking, dude? The likelihood of VWC winning ALL its remaining games is very good.

I'd say there is a more than decent chance for them to win all their remaining games, but not a very good chance. they have the guilford/e&h road trip this weekend where they normally have a let down in one of the games, and then they still have to play Macon at home.

[algernon]

Don't those numbers indicate that HSC is out of the tornament unless they win the ODAC and that VWC is on the bubble?

Not necessarily.  Although it's not likely, let's say that HSC goes on a run and wins their last 7 regular season games, including the game in Ashland.  They finish the regular season 14-4 (20-4 overall) and are the #3 seed.  Defeating #6 in the quarterfinals and #2 in the semifinals, they lose a close championship game to RMC or VWC.  At that point, the Tigers are 22-5, with a QOWi that has improved to around 9.700.  Given a run like that, I think they'd have a good shot at getting a Pool C bid for the NCAAs.

Similarly, if VWC wins their last 6 regular season games but loses in the semifinals to, say, Hampden-Sydney or Guilford, they finish with a 23-4 record and a considerably improved QOWi over what they have now.

I think that RMC, VWC, and HSC are the only ODAC teams that are still in the race for a Pool C bid -- and the Tigers, with one more loss and a lower QOWi than the other two teams, must do extremely well to get a Pool C bid (as above, involving a 9 game win streak before losing the championship game).

[jdubyadubya]

>STH> This is a much different Marlins team this year and I don't see the collapse happening this weekend like everyone is expecting.

[tigerfanalso]

algernon

Good points, all of them. We'll see what happens. B'ball is a crazy game and most anything can happen. HSC could win out, probably not. GC, HSC, RMC, VWC could win the conference tournament. If RMC or VWC don't win the tournament it will interesting to see how the selection committee handles them. Either team represents the best chance for an ODAC team to advance very deep into the NCAA's, something all ODAC fans must pull for, and hopefully they'll get a chance.