MBB: NESCAC

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think a number of the top teams in NE have the most coming back - which makes the region strong, at least on paper.

Those midwest teams always seem to reload pretty effectively, though.  It will be interesting to see how things pan out in the end.

[Colby Hoops]

While I don't doubt that the Northeast region is strong, I feel like some are underestimating the impacts of Whittington and Locke. While the rest of the Midd team is a defensive powerhouse, Locke was that rim protector who made it nearly impossible to score at the rim against Midd.  Whittington was on another level athletically from almost every other player in D3.  Those are two advantages that neither team will have this year.  I still agree that Midd and Williams are going to be very strong, but I'm not sure that Midd and Williams might fall a step or two short of where they finished last year.

[nescac1]

Whittington and Locke are no doubt, metaphorically and literally, huge losses for Williams and Midd, respectively.  Whittington, when healthy, was as dominant last year as any center I've ever seen play for Williams, including Ben Coffin. 

At the same time, Williams nearly (and should have) beat Wooster in the Final Four while Troy was playing with a broken hand and was a shadow of his usual self, took Amherst to OT on the road w/out Troy, and won three other games without him, all by at least 15 points.  That is not to minimize his importance: no way they would have beaten Va Wes in the tourney without a herculean game by him, for example, and he single-handedly beat Trinity in the NESCAC tourney when much of the rest of the team had a bit of an off day or was hurt.  But Williams was in many ways a very inexperienced team last year after graduating 5 of the top 9 rotation players, relying heavily on two frosh (three when Troy was out) plus a sophomore who saw almost no varsity action prior to last season.  This group is a lot more experienced, so I hope that collective experience / improvement can compensate, but it is certainly no sure thing as each year is different.  The Ephs will have three centers 6'8, 6'9, and 6'9 on the roster, so at the very least they have a lot of size, the key is how much those guys advanced in the off-season (and how much the first year can contribute). 

As for Midd, I believe that Locke also missed some games with injuries, and the team barely missed a beat.  Sharry should  be healthier this year, and the Midd guards have a lot more experience.  Also, look out for Jack Roberts.  In warm-ups at the final four, he looked about the same size as Locke (listed at 6-8 but looked 6-10 to me), and seemed very athletic / strong for a player of that size in D-3, he may be able to be the new defensive stopper even if he gives less on offense than Locke did.  I will say that Jamal Davis is a player whose loss will also be felt by Midd -- he didn't put up huge stats, but played the best one-on-one defense of anyone I saw on Whittington, and seemed to always make big plays in key games, the ultimate unheralded glue guy. Took a lot of pressure off Sharry defensively.   

In some ways, Meehan may be an even bigger loss for Amherst.  Unless the frosh guard is really, really good, Toomey is going to face a LOT of pressure to be the primary perimeter scorer, creator, and ball-handler without Meehan around to share the load; the Jeffs have to be careful not to wear him down over the course of the season.  Amherst's front court, on the other hand, could be ready to dominate with everyone coming back.   

[Colby Hoops]

All good points. I just think it will be different for Williams to rely so heavily on an offense that will likely be almost entirely perimeter oriented.  It's a lot easier for a perimeter-oriented offense to have an off day.  I still think Williams will be one of the best team's in the country, but I could see them losing a lot earlier in the tournament next year.

As far as Midd, I'm sure they will be solid as ever, and they still have plenty of defensive talent in Thompson, Sharry etc.  And maybe Roberts will turn into something.  Still, it was unique to have that sort of size and shot-blocking talent, and I think it will be something that's noticeable for opponents.

[Bucket]

I see that Middlebury has added Johnson and Wales to its schedule, an early December match-up that will bring last year's leading scorer in the nation and first-team All-American Lamont Thomas to Pepin. What a showcase between him and Sharry, and I'm already looking forward to watching Nolan Thompson D him up.

[toad22]

There are not a lot of advantages to losing Troy Whittington. The one big one is that he will be replaced by a good shooting (from 3) center. In Maker's offense, that opens up more drives to the bucket (or dish offs). Williams might have the best 3 point shooting they have ever had -- all 5 starters shot the 3 at 40% or better last year -- combined with the  best group of penetrating guards they have ever had (Wang, Roberstson and Rooke-Ley). Defense and rebounding will be much bigger issues this year, but the offensive end may be in the best shape ever. As for the rest of the league, my feeling is that just about every team will be as good or better than last year. I doubt that Williams will be able to run the table this year, as they have the last two years. The team that wins the regular season will likely have at least one loss, and maybe two.

[nescac1]

Wow, Williams-Amherst-Middlebury go 3-4-5 in the d3hoops preseason poll:

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/men/2011-12/preseason

I wonder if that is the first time three schools from one conference have been in the top five preseason?  As reflected by the poll, if they stay healthy, games between those three should be a toss-up all year. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Wow, Williams-Amherst-Middlebury go 3-4-5 in the d3hoops preseason poll:

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/men/2011-12/preseason

I wonder if that is the first time three schools from one conference have been in the top five preseason?  As reflected by the poll, if they stay healthy, games between those three should be a toss-up all year.

Those number have to be a little high, no?  All those teams bring back a lot, but they've lost some key pieces.  I'd rather be ranked lower pre-season and work my way up than to start too high.

[nescac1]

I agree that there is less pressure starting lower and working up.

But I think those rankings are exactly right, at least pre-season.  VWU definitely deserves the top spot in my view.  Augustana only loses one key guy.  But Williams and Midd made the final four, Amherst the elite eight, and all three bring back the majority of their key players -- Williams returns something like seven of its top 8 scorers, Amherst returns all but one rotation player, and Midd, while it loses the most of the three (three solid contributors), still returns four guys who started or played starter minutes and has a lot of young talent ready to mature.  All three bring in two or more potential instant impact recruits to boot. 

Compare that to the other top teams from last year -- Whitworth, St. Thomas, Wooster, St. Mary's, Stevens Point -- all of whom were absolutely decimated by graduation or transfers.   Given that they will be beating up on each other during the season, there is no way all three NESCAC squads are still in the top five heading in the NCAA tourney, but on paper, pre-season, I can't think of any team outside the top six (Marietta also looks stacked) who is worthy of being ranked higher. 

Indeed, if I were to put an over-under on combined losses heading into the NESCAC tourney, I'd say something like seven (four losses in head-to-head games, plus an average of one additional loss apiece). 

[NEBBall25]

I would say Williams and Middlebury lost a lot to be ranked so high in the pre-season polls. But in D3 they most likely do most of that off of last year anyway.

I am also pretty shocked everyone thinks Wesleyan can contend for the upper half of the league. As I remember everyone said this last year as well and they came in last place so I am not sure why people think all of sudden they are going to be different this year.

I agree Bowdoin should be pretty good as well. And I would not count on Trinity being part of that top class of the league with what most would say is a great freshman class and a very good coach he will get them playing well I am sure.

Looking forward to things getting started!

[jayhawk]

I agree with Colby Hoops about loss of Locke and Whittington.
Sure Middlebury and Williams will be fine teams but loss is large. 
Amherst was killing Middlebury in the Nescac tournament until Locke came back into the game.
Williams gave Amherst tough time at Amherst without Whittington agreed. Williams will be good no doubt.
All of this said Amherst Center  consistently scored on both Locke and Whittington without getting his shot blocked.
When Williams came to Amherst without Whittington Amherst consistently found Kasslia inside and Williams had no answer.
However bball is a team game so we will see what happend when the ball games start

[Pat Coleman]

I would say Williams and Middlebury lost a lot to be ranked so high in the pre-season polls. But in D3 they most likely do most of that off of last year anyway.

I think if you read the previous few posts on the subject, or our front-page story, you'd see that's not true.

[nescac1]

Colby Hoops, Williams certainly could lose a lot earlier in the tournament this year ... heck, first they have to worry about making the tournament, which is no easy feat in D-3 (as you know well as a Colby fan, even teams having very strong years can be left out), and Williams has plenty of tough games on the schedule this year (Ohio Northern is going to be a top 25 team I'd bet when all is said and done, Amherst and Wesleyan twice each, Midd, Bowdoin, all tough games, plus the NESCAC tourney, Keene could be a sleeper, etc.).  And heck, last year's team could very well have lost to Husson in round one, they were VERY fortunate to escape with a win vs. one of the best individual efforts I've ever seen from an opposing player vs. Williams by Josh Jones.  Once you get into the tourney, anything can happen ...

Kaasila is a load to deal with, Jayhawk, and Williams really struggled with his bulk and touch inside last year.  He will remain a huge challenge, but hopefully the Ephs bigs have gotten stronger and more physical in the offseason (they certainly have the height and length), I guess time will tell.   The bigger problem for Williams vs. Amherst and Midd (depending on who the Panthers start) may be defending the bigger forwards.  I expect Williams will be starting 6'3 and 6'4 shooter / slashers at the forwards, and defending the likes of Workman, Waller and Sharry is a lot to ask.  ON the other hand, Williams will have a lot of mismatches of its own on the offensive end. 

NEBBall, as for Wesleyan, I really do think the injuries killed them last year.  Thomas was their only true physical interior player and when he went down it really affected them.  And St. Jean is a guy whose absence all year made a big difference, a guy who will play very tough D on the best perimeter guy on each team, a glue guy who knows the game and does the little things to help the team (as you'd expect from a coach's son).  Those two back, plus another year of experience for everyone else, and Wesleyan should pull out a lot of the close games they lost last year, I'd expect.  Maybe still a year away from challenging W/A/M, but they will be tough.  They have a proven coach as well.  As for Trinity, I expect they will be gritty, tough, and overachieve, but I don't recall ANY first-year dominated team, no matter how talented, ever having success in NESCAC, and Trinity has maybe one upperclassman it can count on for scoring, two at most.  Just too much pressure on young players in a loaded conference.   

[walzy31]

What is the difference between Pool B and Pool C?


Naaaa I'm just kidding...although someone always asks that question around this time of year.

[lefrakenstein]

Frontpage article refers to Brandeis as the Jeff's hardest non-conference test. Subtle jab at the Ephs or d3hoops.com forgetting that one of the Williams games is a non-con every year?