MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

NEHoops.....nice work!  Solid arguments/points.  Your point wrt the "CAC" being a point guard conference this year should bring up some interesting discussions, IMO.  I have always thought that in college BB, guard play is the key to success....along with defense.  Guard play, especially the point guard gives you the offense to win games.  It is the defense that brings you championships.  That is why I agree with you about Amherst's position.  Workman is the returning defensive player of the year in the conference.  Even in the championship years of Williams and Midd., with their dominant front court players, it was their guards, imho, that carried them deep into the NCAA playoffs.  Midd.'s defense and guards kept the Panthers in the games with Amherst.
Potential new impact player for Amherst could be a soph.  Mr. Ray Barry from CA., who was injured last season, has great talent at the off guard position.  I expect him to be a contributor this season.  I also expect Amherst to be stronger up front this year...on the defensive side....with the return of an injured big man,R. Bryant, who missed all of last year with an ACL injury.

[madzillagd]

Let me try this again... Amherst had the audacity to post their 12-13 roster already which I didn't notice the dates when I put this together.


Having just jumped on the NESCAC bandwagon I don't have any knowledge from last year to make any predictions for this year.  However, I threw together some quick scoring stats on players staying/leaving as we head into the year.  Nothing scientific about it, pretty much included guys with 5+ ppg (with a couple exceptions).

AMHERST
Team: 79 ppg
Key Returns: Aaron Toomey, Willy Workman, Allen Williamson, Peter Kaasila (42 ppg)
Losses: Taylor Barrise,  David Waller, Jeff Homes (27 ppg)

BATES
Team: 66 ppg
Key Returns: Mark Brust, Ed Bogdanovich, Luke Matarazzo, Graham Safford (37 ppg)
Losses: Reid Christian, John Squires (21 ppg)

BOWDOIN
Team: 76 ppg
Key Returns: Andrew Madlinger, Bryan Hurley (16 ppg)
Losses: Will Hanley, Ryan O'Connell, Wyatt Littles (40 ppg)

COLBY
Team: 60 ppg
Key Returns: Connor O'Neil, Shane Rogers (14 ppg)
Losses: Ben Foreman, Eric Beaulieu, Kyle Donovan (33 ppg)

CONNECTICUT COLLEGE
Team: 59 ppg
Key Returns: Matt Vadas, Rob Harrigan, Mason Lopez, Boris Jeremic, John Bullitt (46 ppg)
Losses: None

HAMILTON
Team: 67 ppg
Key Returns: Greg Newton, Eric Benvenuti, Ken Click, Hans Schulte, Matt Dean (36 ppg)
Losses: Pat Sullivan (17 ppg)

MIDDLEBURY
Team: 79 ppg
Key Returns: Joey Kizel, Peter Lynch, Nolan Thompson, Jake Wolfin, Dylan Snicks (48 ppg)
Losses: Ryan Sharry (19 ppg)

TRINITY
Team: 62 ppg
Key Returns: Eric Dean, Jon Seltzer, Varun Ram, Carter Trent, Chris Applegate, George Papadeas (46 ppg)
Losses: Mick DiStasio (10 ppg)

TUFTS
Team: 74 ppg
Key Returns: Scott Anderson, Kwame Firempong, Ben Ferris, C.J. Moss, Tom Folliard (46 ppg)
Losses: Alex Orchowski, James Long (16 ppg)

WESLEYAN
Team: 70 ppg
Key Returns: Shasha Brown, Mike Callaghan, Derick Beresford, Glen Thomas, Julian Harrias (53 ppg)
Losses: Jason Mendel (10 ppg)

WILLIAMS
Team: 77 ppg
Key Returns: Michael Mayer, James Klemm, Taylor Epley, Nate Robertson (45 ppg)
Losses: James Wang, Brian Emerson, Hayden Rooke-Ley* (26 ppg) - (*Surgery - out for beginning of year at least)

[nescac1]

Thanks for doing that, madzillagd.  It's interesting that so many teams lose roughly the same amount of production, and return roughly the same amount.  Colby (which had a rough year last year, even with a senior-heavy roster) faces the steepest road to climb, and Bowdoin also lost a very strong senior class.  Wesleyan seems to lose the least. 

I see that Trinity, like Amherst, also posted a prospective roster.  A lot of regulars from last year seem to have left the program.  Carter Trent, a promising point guard, transferred to Dallas Baptist, a D-2 program.  It appears based on the roster that Varun Ram (another frosh who started most of the year), Jon Seltzer (who only played a few games last year but was productive when he played), Mike O'Loughlin (a highly ranked recruit) and Adam Skaggs (a tough defensive player) are all no longer with the team.  If that is correct, that means that Trinity loses roughly half of its rotation players to attrition, and returns only two guys who averaged more than 6 ppg, and neither of them averaged more than 11.  Sounds like Trinity's big rebuilding project may be further delayed, as if those guys are indeed all gone, as well as last year's senior center Chris Applegate, Trinity will struggle just to make the NESCAC tourney.   

[amh63]

Amherst's posting of a "preliminary" team is a list of available players from last year....returning.  The football players may or may not join the team.  Please notice that no new players, FY or transfers or others are listed.  The info is for posters to "pick" on.

[Old Guy]

Another interesting item, Middlebury related. Koby Altman, Midd pg from '02-04, an ass't at Amherst and most recently at Columbia, has landed a job with the Cavs in the NBA:

http://www.middlebury.edu/athletics/

[jumpshot]

Amh63 ---

Thanks for recognizing my accurate prediction made on November 8, 2011, that Middlebury would win the Directors Cup awarded in June 2012.

That was my entire statement on the matter as no reason was cited whatsoever, so your charge that the wrong reason was given is, of course, inaccurate and entirely manufactured.

Perhaps you remain sensitive to my insight or perhaps the other sentence to the effect that their entire athletic department will be purchased by Amherst in an attempt to duplicate this feat. Be sure to let us all know when Amherst does so.

[Old Guy]

Your point wrt the "CAC" being a point guard conference this year should bring up some interesting discussions, IMO.  amh63

There are great guards in NESCAC right now (Toomey, Brown, Wolfin/Kizell/Thompson) and have been over time (Crotty, Olson, Rudin). In fact, there are and have been many great players in NESCAC between 5'10" - 6'6". Not many great players between 6'6" and 6'11" - but when you have one (Whittington, Locke, Sharry), along with those good guards, you have a distinct competitive advantage - you have a national power. The big guys are often the difference-makers. Fair observation?

[amh63]

Old Guy.....quite fair!  The championship runs by Amherst in '07 and '08 had outstanding "big" players in the 6'7-6'11 range.  Two of them are now assistant coaches at Amherst. Must be a reason for them to be there!

[nescac1]

Next year's NESCAC will really test the theory regarding needing an elite big guy to be competitive nationally (which I generally agree has been true, unless you have a very deep and balanced team led by a truly dominant national player of the year like Mike Nogelo or Andrew Olson).  I can't imagine that any conference has a stronger group of returning point guards than Sha Brown, Toomey, Kizell, and Nate Robertson, all of whom have shown the ability to be nationally elite players, plus some other solid point guards returning on other conference squads (Wolfin -- Midd has two strong PGs, Hurley, Matarazzo, CJ Moss, and Jeremy Lin's little bro all could do big things next year).  Indeed, 10 of the top 11 conference assist leaders return, and the only one who graduates is PF Hanley. 

On the other hand, this is, barring some huge break-out years, arguably the weakest group of big men NESCAC has featured in many years, if not ever.  Sharry, Hanley (two all-American type players), Sullivan, Squires, Orchowski, Holmes, Emerson, Applegate, the Colby big guys (all at worst solid contributors) all are gone.  I have said before that Mike Mayer has potential to be a nationally elite big guy, but he still has a long way to go to get there, and who knows if he will reach that level.  Some other guys are very solid, like Kaasila, Callaghan, Lynch and Scott Anderson, but none have the potential to be all-Americans or anything close to that.   

So, next year should answer the question of whether teams lacking in elite big guys but with truly outstanding talent, experience and leadership in the backcourt can do damage on the national stage. 

[amh63]

nescac1.....I have admired your insights, etc., in spite of you inherent bias.  However, to make future discussions more interesting and to "point" out your blind spot....I make the following point.  Based on last year's two contests between Amherst and Williams, I cannot figure out your high assessment of Williams Mayer and low one for Pete Kaasila of Amherst.  In both games, Amherst's big man out performed William's big man in the roles they were both given,imho  We will see who is the better player up front this year and here's hoping that both will have fine games.
Based on the big man theory for a national run, I cannot figure out the recruiting going on at Trinity.  Also, we must beware of Bowdoin where there are two big men on hand.  We have been lucky that the tall men have not developed into front court "players" to date.
This should start some discussions while we wait for the posting of the new players on hand.

[nescac1]

amh63, first, I do think that Kaasila has a good skill set, and I would not be suprised by a sudden rise in his production as a senior.  Strangely, though, he regressed from soph to junior years.  He is enormous, extremely strong, and has a very nice touch inside, but needs to be a much more aggressive rebounder (how does a guy with that frame not get at least 7 rpg in D-3?), and I'm not sure he has the agility to guard quicker players inside.  But he has already played three years and hasn't seemed to improve much in that time.  Big men in NESCAC tend to make a big leap from their sophomore to junior year (Williams examples include Coffin, Whittington, Geoff Chapin, all of whom became all-Americans following two years of fairly modest production).  Mike Mayer was substantially better last year on offense than any of those three players were as sophomores.  He does need to get stronger to deal with bulky players like Kaasila who did give him trouble last year, but has the frame to do so and I think with his unusual skill set (unlike Kaasila, he can drive, really run the floor, has a plethora of post moves, is a better passer, and can even shoot from 3, plus is a much better foul shooter) makes him far more likely to bust out into a big-time player.  Both are 6'9, Kaasila has an advantage in bulk and strength, whereas Mayer has an advantage in skill, touch, speed, and agility, with the latter categories being harder to suddenly improve upon.   Ask the Midd fans about what Mayer did to that team (a team with an all-American big guy) last year: 19.5 ppg and 9.5 rbg. 

Comparing the stats, by the way, it isn't really close:

Mayer: 13.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 61 % fgp, 81 % fta, in only 20 mpg.  If he can play 30 mpg next year at the same efficiency level, that would be a MONSTER stat line (around 20-10-2 with tremendous shooting). 

Kaasila: 6.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, .5 apg, 57 fgp, 65 % fta, in only 16.9 mpg.

Even on a per-minute basis, Mayer was FAR more productive, despite being a year behind in development (and really more than that, because Kaasila went to prep school, while Mayer missed his senior year of HS hoops due to an injury, which may partially explain his huge leap from frosh to sophmore year).  I'd be very surprised if, assuming he stays healthy, Mayer is not clearly the best center in NESCAC last year, unless Swords on Bowdoin suddenly puts it all together (he is more likely at least another year away, maybe two, from being a big-time guy in my view). 

[Old Guy]

 Mayer actually played more minutes per game last year than Kaasila. That surprised me.

Mayer was mighty impressive against Midd last year in the one-point game here, 25 points (13-15 from the line, 5-7 fg, 12 boards). Kaasila is steady - big and strong, smart, good hands, dependable. He's a good player. In the one point OT loss to Amherst in the season's final game (to determine home court for the tourney) Kaasila rolled to the hoop, we doubled Toomey, and Big Pete had the easy putback - the right place at the right time. 

Bowdoin is huge. We know what to expect from their 6'10 senior, Staiger (whose efforts against us were compromised by his emotions), but the 7' frosh (Swords) last year was much better against us than I thought he would be. If he spent the off-season conditioning, he could be a force this year (and Bowdoin overall will be better than we think if they can find a backcourt player to join Hurley).

[P'bearfan]

How would you guys compare the NESCAC with other conferences with strong academic schools?....I'm thinking of the UAA and ODAC as examples.  Is the NESCAC stronger top to bottom..just at the top?

[nescac1]

NESCAC is generally considered one of the top power conferences in D-3, which would also include the WIAC (which I see as a cut above the rest in terms of consistent hoops quality), CCIW, UAA, ODAC, and OAA.  All are typically very strong (aka a few nationally elite teams) at the top, solid in the middle, with a few weak links at the bottom (again, except for WIAC which is often tough across the board), and NESCAC in recent years has been consistent with that pattern. 

[amh63]

nescac1....nice reply! 
Your reply to my Mayer vs Kaasila comparison was thoughtful and full of data. I learned a bit about your way of thinking and analytical approach.  However, I wish to point out that numbers can also distort the value of a player to a team.  I reviewed last years games in general and games against Midd. and Williams in particular....to check Kaasila's time and stats, etc.  My response for now.
I had previously qualified that big Pete's play was in the role that he was given.  Pete's time on the floor was shared with Holmes for most of the season.  Amherst's coach tried to play them together and found that it was more effective to split their time in games and used their strengths...dependent on the opponent.  In short, Amherst's style of team play uses Pete differently than Mayer's role for Williams,imo.  In the two games against Williams, Holmes and Kaasila numbers in rebounds and points were about the same as Mayer and Emerson combined numbers.  Kassila had 16 points and 6 rebounds in 24 minutes vs 11 rebounds and 12 points for Mayer.  In the assessment by Amherst's coach after the first game at Williams, Hixon thought that Kaasila was the key to the win.  He scored two critical foul shots late in the game...when he shoots less than 60% from the foul line.  Coach Hixon stated that Williams could not stop  Pete and had to double team him often.
Going over, a number of games, Amherst's guards in Toomey, Barrise and of course Workman often had more rebounds than Amherst's big men in many games.  In the 2nd Williams game at Amherst, Amherst out rebounded Williams by around 11 (only 1 in the first game) and Mayer again had more rebounds than Kaasila....in another close game.  The difference is that Amherst plays a different style of offensive that allows the guards to get a great many rebounds, imho.  Your fine guard Nate Robertson gets many critical rebounds in games.
Old Guy pointed out that Kaasila played a critical part in the overtime win against Midd. in one game.  I checked the stats in that game at Amherst and it shows the value of big Pete not only at the end but during the game.  In 25 minutes of play, big Pete had more rebounds and points than the great Sharry had in 40 minutes!  Both had double digit points and rebounds.
In the 2nd game for the conf. title, Sharry bested Kaasila in about the same time.....with identical numbers as the first game.