MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

A few interesting comments from Coach Maker:

http://athletics.williams.edu/sports/mbkb/2012-13/releases/20130126ze6h2a

He explains / defends the use of the zone (which, again, I did think was FAR more effective vs. Midd than it's been in recent weeks, perhaps just a better match-up in terms of the style of play), calls Thompson the best defender in NESCAC (agreed), notes that Nate is the team's MVP (also agreed, not sure he is the BEST player, but when he is not on the floor for a long stretch, as we saw in the first half today, it's often big trouble for Williams), and notes that Mayer was under the weather, which makes his huge game even more impressive, and also explains why he was shuttling in and out quite a bit in the second half ...

Oh, and thanks for taking the time to calculate the PER, lefrankenstein, really interesting and I'd love to see that for this year.  I will note, as reflected in your calculation, that PER is notoriously favorable to big men who put up more efficient stats (rebounding, scoring efficiency, etc.) due to their proximity to the basket.  I tend to adjust PER upwards for someone like Robertson or Kizell or Sha Brown or Toomey who does most of the ball-handling and creating, and down for big guys who get a lot of points off of offense created by others, or are better positioned to snag rebounds and putbacks. 

[Old Guy]

amh63, you watched Amherst-Trinity and not Wms-Midd?

Too bad Bates couldn't sustain it vs Tufts, would have been a nice win for the Bobcats.

Proud of the Midd boys. They always come to play. Tough kids. Good performance in Ephtown. The Panthers belong.

[walzy31]

Saturday January 26th NESCAC Spreads

Bowdoin @ Colby
Bowdoin -12.0
O/U: 124.0


Middlebury @ Williams
Middlebury -3.0
O/U: 142.5


Wesleyan @ Conn College
Wesleyan -7.0
O/U: 134.5


Trinity @ Amherst
Amherst -14.0
O/U: 141.5


Tufts @ Bates
Tufts -13.0
O/U: 134.5

Bowdoin 63 @ Colby 49
Bowdoin -12.0 (Bowdoin Covers +2.0)
O/U: 124.0 (Under +12.0)


Middlebury 63 @ Williams 64
Middlebury -3.0 (Williams Covers +4.0)
O/U: 142.5 (Under +15.5)


Wesleyan 71 @ Conn College 41
Wesleyan -7.0 (Wesleyan Covers +23.0)
O/U: 134.5 (Under +12.5)


Trinity 55 @ Amherst 83
Amherst -14.0 (Amherst Covers +14.0)
O/U: 141.5 (Under +3.5)


Tufts 74 @ Bates 67
Tufts -13.0 (Bates Covers +6.0)
O/U: 134.5 (Over +6.5)

[lefrakenstein]

Oh, and thanks for taking the time to calculate the PER, lefrankenstein, really interesting and I'd love to see that for this year.  I will note, as reflected in your calculation, that PER is notoriously favorable to big men who put up more efficient stats (rebounding, scoring efficiency, etc.) due to their proximity to the basket.  I tend to adjust PER upwards for someone like Robertson or Kizell or Sha Brown or Toomey who does most of the ball-handling and creating, and down for big guys who get a lot of points off of offense created by others, or are better positioned to snag rebounds and putbacks.

Agreed

[walzy31]

Walczy- Thanks for keeping the NESCAC Sportsbook open--

Colby/ Over

Williams (ouch)/ over

Wesleyan/ over

Amherst/ under

Bates/ under

5-5 down 0.5 K

[walzy31]

Colby over
Williams under
Wesleyan over
Amherst under
Bates over

7-3 up 3.7 K

[walzy31]

Middlebury/Over
Amherst/over

No feel for others......

1-3 down 2.3 K (we are now even)

[walzy31]

Colby (tough one but I like the big spread in a rivalry game at home) and over, Williams and over, Wesleyan and over, Amherst and under, Bates and under.

5-5 down 0.5 K

[walzy31]

Colby, Middlebury, Conn College, Amherst and Bates.  Not feeling too comfortable with one of my picks, but have to go with heart over head.  Crunch time in the 'CAC.  Great time of year.   

2-3 Down 1.3 K

[lefrakenstein]

Sorry if this has been addressed, but what happened to Parker Semin? Is he hurt?

[Bucket]

An astounding fact, courtesy "PantherNation":

Middlebury has not lost a game that didn't come down to the final possession--regular or post-season--since the 2009-10 campaign.

[madzillagd]

He explains / defends the use of the zone (which, again, I did think was FAR more effective vs. Midd than it's been in recent weeks, perhaps just a better match-up in terms of the style of play), calls Thompson the best defender in NESCAC (agreed), notes that Nate is the team's MVP (also agreed, not sure he is the BEST player, but when he is not on the floor for a long stretch, as we saw in the first half today, it's often big trouble for Williams), and notes that Mayer was under the weather, which makes his huge game even more impressive, and also explains why he was shuttling in and out quite a bit in the second half ...

I know Mayer was one of the four guys with the flu this past weekend so maybe his is lingering a bit.  Nate was also sick and he looked pretty winded out there as well today.

As for Nate being off the floor, I've stayed quiet regarding the bench play but I have to say I'd love to see the nephew get a shot to back up Nate this year.  Like you mentioned, when Nate is not on the floor it's big trouble for the team.  Maker went with McCreary for a few minutes then he basically went with no pg for a few minutes - neither option was successful as they picked up turnovers and struggled to get into the offense.  The 3 main bench guards/wings have combined for 0 points over the last 3 games in 62 minutes.  Would love to see him mix it up because there really is no place to go but up.  Nate averages more assists in games when he plays less than 35 mins than in games he plays more than 35 mins.  In fact, he averages more turnovers than assists in those 35+ min games not to mention 4 fouls on average.  He simply plays better when he is fresh.

Parker Semin transferred.  Hayden Ley had hip surgery and should be back next year. 

[nescac1]

Impressive run for Midd, no doubt.  They are never easy to beat and always play tough.  Although I predict that, if Amherst does not end that streak this year, next year may be a slightly different story for Midd ... Wolfin, Thompson, and Lynch are quite a group to lose, 3/4 best players on the team.  Not clear where Midd's interior scoring will come from next year, in particular.  Although no doubt they will reload as they have each year of late with Jensen, Sinnickson (who did really impress me last year in limited time, he is a big loss for Midd if he can't play at all this year), and Merryman all candidates to step into featured roles. 

Williams is really missing Rooke-Ley, speaking of absent players.  His scoring off the bench would be huge for this team, that is really the missing ingredient right now.  He was roughly as productive as Mayer and Epley last year.  Hopefully he returns at full health next year and can step into James Klemm's role.   

Bowdoin's win over Colby is particularly impressive given that Colby, apparently, received a handicap of a sixth starter ... at least according to the box score!

http://www.nescac.com/sports/mbkb/2012-13/boxscores/20130126_nxl1.xml

I note that Keegan Pieri did not play.  Injured?  Sick?  It would be bad timing for Bowdoin if he is out for an extended period, with Williams and Midd coming to town next weekend ...

Tufts continues to roll since the opening weekend of NESCAC play.  Palleschi and Haldanya are arguably going to keep each other from contending from rookie of the year (although in all events Matt Hart is probably close to a lock at this point, kid can play).  Great pair of frosh for Tufts to build around for the next four years.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Jumbos pull an upset of the big three in the NESCAC tourney.  At this point, the top four will be Amherst, Williams, Midd and Tufts in some order, for certain.  A young team hitting its stride.  All four will cross fingers to avoid Wesleyan in round one ...

[grabtherim]

Great game at Williams.  Congratulations to the Ephs on a great win.  Mayer was fantastic for Williams and Thompson of Midd has to be one of the best lock downs in the country. Tough loss for the Panthers, and the kind of win which the Williams kids should draw on the next time they find themselves down late. 
Live by the sword, die by the sword for Midd.  When you are involved in so many close games, sooner or later one does not go your way.  Today one slipped away. A few thoughts from the game.  Why did Coach Maker abandon the zone in the 1st half when it was so effective?  It seems to me that as soon as he did, Midd found life they did not have before.  On the same wavelength, I think Midd needs to find ways to deal with a zone better.  The solution is not just better outside shooting.  You can create and beat a zone via picks, pick and roll and overloading.  Midd simply did not do so at key moments, especially late.  They sort of went stagnant, and it cost them. 
No one outside of Williamstown respects Coach Maker more than me, but what he gets away with the officials especially in home games is becoming absurd.  At certain points he is almost a 6th player halfway to the midcourt circle carrying on a running diatribe in every official's ear.  When he gets really incensed, it invariably leads to a ridiculous call in the Ephs favor.  Case in point is his screaming at the short guy and then ten seconds later Lynch gets called for what was the worst call in the entire game.  Lord knows I am trying to follow the example of the Old Man and not blame refs for losses.  This is not that at all, and one can argue it helps his team win, but to me the latitude given to him by refs with his unending whining is unbecoming to such a good coach who may someday be considered a great one. 
Hope these two teams get to meet again in the playoffs or even better in the NCAAs.  Great basketball by fantastic athletes.       

[pick and roll]

From what I could tell the refs were pretty good in the Williams - Middlebury game - announcers were another matter.  I do think if Lynch was not in foul trouble Midd wins particularly given the fact Mayer was sick.  Was disappointed Midd seemed to work the clock last five minutes - Thompson should get the nod for defensive player of the year.  Midd has had some terrific defenders the last few years with Edwards Loche and now Thompson.