MBB: NESCAC

[Panthernation]

I would LOVE to see a Rochester-Midd match up in the NCAA's to see what he could do vs. Nolan Thompson.  The immovable object vs. the irresistable force ...

His freshman year, they played in the sweet sixteen, and he finished with 13 points on 5-13 shooting. It helped having Andrew Locke (6 blocks) down low.

[Panthernation]

Here is our preview of tomorrow's game, vs. Keene State (http://blogs.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2013/01/28/keene-state/). This is one to watch despite Keene State's record.

"Opponent: Keene State (11-7, 6-3)
Details: Tuesday, Pepin, 7pm

Last season, we drove down to Keene State to watch our 18-0, top-ranked Panthers fall to a talented Keene State team that was hungry for the upset. Middlebury never could pull away from the Owls, and blew a late game lead, failing to score a field goal over the last 6:21 and losing by a final score of 77-76. We came away from that game impressed with the matchup problem that Keene State had presented and the high-caliber basketball that they showed they were capable of playing. That year's Owls team didn't end up making the tournament, as they struggled down the stretch, showing a lack of consistency that has surfaced again this season.

Yet inconsistency in an opponent shouldn't always foster confidence, because a team as volatile and capable as Keene State can play tournament-level basketball on any single night, as they proved last January. Thus, the fact that this year's Owls team has struggled at times and is sitting at 11-7 on the season does not mean that they should be taken lightly. In fact, Keene State returns all five of its starters from last year's team, has lost its seven games by an average of 4.6 points (try finding a team in the country that has lost seven or more games by a lesser margin), and has been playing better since moving star senior guard Anthony Mariano into the sixth man role a few weeks ago. This is the toughest non-conference opponent the Panthers will play all season and an upset could put Middlebury's postseason chances in jeopardy. The point being, this is a big game, and Middlebury needs to treat it as such.

The difficulty that Keene State presents starts at the five position, where 6'10" Rashad Wright dominates with a combination of length, athleticism, and offensive game that is rare at the D3 level. Wright had 15 points and 9 rebounds in just 22 minutes of play during last year's game, including the game-winning shot with just over a minute to go, and is averaging 11 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks and 1 steal per game this year, shooting 55% from the field. Keene State has depth in the frontcourt as well, as 6'6" senior Eric Fazio (11.6 pppg, 4.7 rpg), 6'8" junior Montel Walcott (4 ppg, 4 rpg), 6'6" senior John Boyatsis (4 ppg, 3 rpg), and 7'0" freshman Nate Howard (2 ppg, 3 rpg, 1 bpg) all earn minutes in the rotation. Rarely does Middlebury face such tall front courts, which is one of the reasons why they may struggle with Keene State.

The big guys are complemented by a group of capable scorers, starting with D1 transfer Ryan Martin, a 5'9" guard who averaged 15.6 points per game and is putting up 50/47/86 shooting splits. Mariano is joined in the backcourt by sophomore Tom Doyle, a 6'3" shooter who is averaging 9.3 points per game and shooting 45/38/90. Mariano, now coming off the bench, averages 15 points and 4.6 rebounds per contest, and is another efficient shooter at 45/41/87. Two talented 5'11" freshmen round out the backcourt rotation, with Tre' Tripton and Jesse Lacroix averaging a combined 6 points, 3.5 assists, and 32 minutes per game.

In order to stop the Owls, Midd will need Jack Roberts, Chris Churchill, James Jensen, and Peter Lynch to play strong, smart defense on Wright and co. (last year, foul trouble was a huge problem). Roberts will have a chance for redemption after a pretty up-and-down performance against Michael Mayer on Saturday, while Jensen will be counted on once again to step up and play big time minutes. Last season Joey Kizel went off against Keene State (7-11, 4-4, 6-6), and he will get his looks again. Keene State's perimeter defense is mediocre, and Kizel, Nolan Thompson, and (recently slumping) Jake Wolfin will all be counted on to provide the offense. The outcome might hinge on whether or not they deliver.

If you have a chance to be at Pepin tomorrow night, Middlebury is going for a white-out from the fans. Last year, the energy that the fans at Keene State brought had a noticeable effect on the game, and it would be great for Panther fans to show that they can play that game too. Damon and I will be broadcasting online, so tune in if you can't make it to the game."

[Old Guy]

I remember DiBartolomeo from two years ago when Midd beat Rochester, 64-55, in their gym in the regional.
http://cat.middlebury.edu/~sports/winter_sports/mens_basketball/archive/2010-11/ROCHNCAA.HTM

He was impressive then, as a soph. Very smooth and relentless, though he looked like every prep school kid at our schools, not particularly imposing physically, youthful good looks, baby-faced, 6'0", 170.

He and Thompson, then, have already met. That was quite a Midd team, especially defensively, with Sharry & Locke in the front court, Jamal Davis coming off the bench, Thompson in the back court. Hard to score on that group.

[Charles]

Here is our preview of tomorrow's game, vs. Keene State (http://blogs.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2013/01/28/keene-state/). This is one to watch despite Keene State's record.

"Opponent: Keene State (11-7, 6-3)
Details: Tuesday, Pepin, 7pm

This is the toughest non-conference opponent the Panthers will play all season and an upset could put Middlebury's postseason chances in jeopardy. The point being, this is a big game, and Middlebury needs to treat it as such.

The toughest non conference team the #6 team in the country will play all season will be an 11-7 team?

[Bucket]

Here is our preview of tomorrow's game, vs. Keene State (http://blogs.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2013/01/28/keene-state/). This is one to watch despite Keene State's record.

"Opponent: Keene State (11-7, 6-3)
Details: Tuesday, Pepin, 7pm

This is the toughest non-conference opponent the Panthers will play all season and an upset could put Middlebury's postseason chances in jeopardy. The point being, this is a big game, and Middlebury needs to treat it as such.

Charles: I might suggest that you do a little research and think before you speak. This is not a bad nor mediocre Keene team; they are capable of beating anyone in the country. They return all five starters from the team that knocked off Midd last year, they are big, and can put up serious points. They also have a hard time defending people, which is why they have been so up and down this year. But for one game, certainly, they can put it together and be a very, very tough opponent.

The toughest non conference team the #6 team in the country will play all season will be an 11-7 team?

[Charles]

Here is our preview of tomorrow's game, vs. Keene State (http://blogs.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2013/01/28/keene-state/). This is one to watch despite Keene State's record.

"Opponent: Keene State (11-7, 6-3)
Details: Tuesday, Pepin, 7pm

This is the toughest non-conference opponent the Panthers will play all season and an upset could put Middlebury's postseason chances in jeopardy. The point being, this is a big game, and Middlebury needs to treat it as such.

Charles: I might suggest that you do a little research and think before you speak. This is not a bad nor mediocre Keene team; they are capable of beating anyone in the country. They return all five starters from the team that knocked off Midd last year, they are big, and can put up serious points. They also have a hard time defending people, which is why they have been so up and down this year. But for one game, certainly, they can put it together and be a very, very tough opponent.

The toughest non conference team the #6 team in the country will play all season will be an 11-7 team?

I never said that Keene wasn't a good opponent, I have seen Keene play Mass Boston, Mass Dartmouth and Lasell. However I was also at the Green Mountain and Southern VT  vs. Middlebury games. My point is that maybe Middlebury at #6 is a little over rated?

[grabtherim]

Here is our preview of tomorrow's game, vs. Keene State (http://blogs.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2013/01/28/keene-state/). This is one to watch despite Keene State's record.

"Opponent: Keene State (11-7, 6-3)
Details: Tuesday, Pepin, 7pm

This is the toughest non-conference opponent the Panthers will play all season and an upset could put Middlebury's postseason chances in jeopardy. The point being, this is a big game, and Middlebury needs to treat it as such.

Charles: I might suggest that you do a little research and think before you speak. This is not a bad nor mediocre Keene team; they are capable of beating anyone in the country. They return all five starters from the team that knocked off Midd last year, they are big, and can put up serious points. They also have a hard time defending people, which is why they have been so up and down this year. But for one game, certainly, they can put it together and be a very, very tough opponent.

The toughest non conference team the #6 team in the country will play all season will be an 11-7 team?

I never said that Keene wasn't a good opponent, I have seen Keene play Mass Boston, Mass Dartmouth and Lasell. However I was also at the Green Mountain and Southern VT  vs. Middlebury games. My point is that maybe Middlebury at #6 is a little over rated?

I don't agree with that assessment, but might have had Midd been outclassed by what I view as a legit top 10 team in Williams.  To me the Williams/Midd game showed both to be top notch teams capable of beating any other quality squad out there.  What has become very clear from watching the Panthers this season and since their resurgence as a top team began five years ago is teams, as they should, get up to play them.  Winning makes that the rule rather than the exception, and I'm sure Williams and Amherst backers can say the same.  It's just that this is a fairly recent phenomenon for Middlebury basketball.  Case in point was last year's game at Keene.  In a loud crazy great college atmosphere gym, Keene played a heck of a game and beat the #1 and undefeated Panthers. As Keene has many of the same players from last season, I hope the Middlebury fans create the same atmosphere for their team tonight, and Midd can get a measure of revenge while getting right back on the winning track.       

[lefrakenstein]

Sinnickson really impressed me last year.  He would be the missing ingredient for Midd right now, an athletic perimeter guy with length who can create his own shot and convert.  I thought that, along with Wohl, he would be the break-out sophomore in NESCAC this year had he played.  Losing him (plus the other guys, but he seemed to be the key guy, and for Williams, losing Rooke-Ley) was apparent in the lack of a perimeter scorer off the bench for either team on Saturday.  Both teams wore down a bit and as the defense tightened each way, there was no one to provide a boost. 

Hard to imagine that Sinnickson can have time now to come back, get into hoops shape, and make a big contribution in the next month, but if he could, it would be a big plus for the Panthers.  Next year, I expect him if fully recovered to form a very dynamic scoring duo with Kizell and the core of the Panthers will be those two plus Jensen. 

The top NESCAC teams right now all have several elite players and are very strong overall 1-6.  But the NESCAC teams that won titles -- 2003 Williams and 2007 Amherst -- each had several elite players, PLUS a deep roster with 4-5 (at least) very talented bench players.  They were deep enough to survive an injury or illness from game to game.  That is the biggest difference between those squads and their 2013 counterparts.  Because every team will of course suffer some bad breaks during the course of a long season, it's almost inevitable.

Depth is also a big difference between the top teams in the league and the also-rans. Last year, 7 of Amherst's 8 rotation players (players with over 100 minutes) had above average PERs. Williams had 6 of 7, Midd had 5 of 8.

By contrast, Wesleyan, Bates and Tufts had 3/8, Trinity had 2/10, Hamilton had 3/7, Colby had 2/7, Conn had 2/9.

So for the most part, only the top teams in the league (although Williams had some tough breaks last year and finished middle of the pack) have more than 3 guys who are "plus" players. The exception was Bowdoin, which had 6/9 players above average.

[amh63]

Madz.....You raised an interesting area for discussion.....NESCAC player of the week.. Several comments and a suggestion for a somewhat related topic that could use your talents.
First, in my years of looking over the picks for players of the week in team sports that I follow, I find them good and fair and now become in general somewhat "indifferent".  The example you provided does raise the question of who makes the selection and by what criteria, objective or subjective, are used.....number of rebounds and assists by a 5 position player versus an 1 position player , etc.  It can become like that rabbit going through the briar patch sort of thing....maybe like "ranking polls" at certain times of the year and/or after certain games.  Suggest that for a "newbie" on this board...but a fine one....,IMO, read the selections as interesting info only to be stored and brought up again when all conference teams are picked at the end of the season....real "fireworks" times when these selections are sometimes used by posters.
Now a topic for board discussion that could use your talents of data mining/analyses.  I actually watched most of the first half of the Middlebury vs Williams BB game last night....from the Williams video achives.  Armed with the discussion on this board about that game, I looked at fouls, shot selection by players, etc., etc. and then sat back to follow the game flow and try to turn out the announcers....fine as they were...but can be distracting for me.  The thing that jumped out for me that was pointed out by others, I believe...was how the flow and the "mo" changed when Nate Robertson left the floor after his 3rd foul.  The Panthers went on a run that gave them a 9 point lead after being behind.  the run stopped when the Williams' coach was forced to insert Nate back into the game.  It "hit" me that a criteria that can be used to show how valuable a player is to a team...and reveal a bit of what "CAC" Coaches  think.....is the time players are on the floor....especially in critical games, key games, tough games, etc.
I know there are often other factors that can cloud the data...such as injuries, fouls, etc...but Madz that is why I feel your BB talents can be of such use here.  Why, I think this may be a key factor.   Discussions on this board point to it...like key Panthers getting fouls...is it important to have the ball in Wang's hand for the last shot....the steal by Toomey at the end of the game....the block by Workman....etc., etc.  The defensive value of players are given credit more, IMHO.
To provide some more examples using my views of Amherst players.  Last year, Amherst's team play was often not good when Aaron Toomey was not in the game..often in the offensive side.  This year, with the growth of Kalema and scoring by other players, the Amherst team marches ahead...less dependent on Aaron being in the game....allowing rest time for a vital cog player.  I have noticed that this year, my favorite player (not a plug here to skew the end product...really) Willy Workman seems to have the most minutes on the floor overall in games....maybe because of his leadership, defensive talents, being a team captain, etc....whatever.
What do you think....Madz?

[7express]

In case any NESCAC fans want to watch the RIC/Anherst game OR any Amherst fans that can't make it down to Providence, tonight's game will be available on littleeast.tv.  Nice quality video, it's free, and games are usually archived a couple minutes after they end to get viewed again if you so please.
Keene usually has most if their games in there as well, but haven't noticed any video for the Keene/Mid game yet.  If I find a video, I will let you guys know.

[madzillagd]

amh63 - I hate to disappoint you but I don't have anything for you.  I know those stats exist but to my knowledge you have to be proactive in pulling that information together and it can't really be done retroactively. (Unless you want to spend hours pouring through the Play by Play logs)  The absolute simplest form of it (and probably the most flawed) of course is the player plus/minus.  Each player has a plus/minus based on the scoring of the team when they are on the floor.  Start of the game - you go up by 5, first sub comes at the 5 minute mark - that guy getting subbed out now has a +5.  That gets updated throughout the game of course.  The problem with this is obviously that it may have absolutely nothing to do with their own play so a player gets rewarded for the team scoring well for example even if they have 5 turnovers during the stretch. 

A variation on this which I prefer is to look at the plus/minus for the unit.  For each combination of 5 people, what is their plus/minus and I think this is a better indicator of how the team performs as a whole.  The nice thing about this stat is units get recognized for good defense.  Your starters may be your best scorers, but if your 2nd string is overall a better group of defenders for example they can still have a good +/- because they are holding down the opponents.  This is a stat that I think can be very useful to coaches because they can see how effective their combinations are on the floor.  For example, the Williams 2nd team has struggled to score in many games but they are overall a good defensive unit.  Typically Epley is left on the floor with 4 subs so if you look a their individual stats they don't look like much, but I'd be surprised if their overall +/- as a unit is that bad because of the combination of the sub defense + Epley's scoring.  I have no idea if any of the teams are using that stat but if I were coaching that would be one that I'd have my assistants keep track of as they watch the tape.  In addition to just the +/-, I'd want to know assists/rebs/tvrs by unit as well just for confirmation of who is moving the ball well etc.  Obviously there are endless amounts of things you can measure and I'm sure others have ideas as well.

As for your comments on Nate - he definitely is the engine that makes the Ephs go.  I don't have the stats but I'd be surprised if the offensive numbers when Nate is not on the floor are very good.  The second group plays defense well enough but they don't do a whole lot of scoring.  That forces Nate to be on the floor the majority of the time but the stats show he actually does better when he gets rest.  He's played 6 games with 35+ mins of action with the averages: 37.8 mins 7.8 pts, 3.7 asts, 4 tos, 4 fouls.  Compare that to 13 games when he's gotten < 35 mins:  30.2 mins, 7.4 pts, 5.3 asts, 2.9 tos, 2.7 fouls.  A factor in that is the competition level - which is forcing him to play more minutes but I think overall when he gets rest he is far more aggressive and makes better decisions.  The problem is, as you saw in the Midd game, when he isn't on the floor you're asking guys to initiate the offense that may not be best suited for that.  McCreary came in and had 2 turnovers and Wohl was tasked with it as well and he ended up with 5 turnovers on the game as a result. 
 

[amh63]

Madz....thank you for being so generous with your time and input.  Gosh, did not realize how naive I am on these matters.  So that is what Coach K assistants are doing when he walks around "baiting" the refs on the sidelines....just kidding here.  I was really thinking here a more simplistic approach....just going back let's say for the top three or 4 "CAC" teams the past few years and logging the time that starters were in on conference games or even against ranked team contest.......and, noting if fouls or injuries reduced time out of a game....and see if there is any correlations of time in a game to the importance of that player..."starter" to the win/loss column.  In a way as I see it....is there a simplistic way of how a Coach sees the importance of a starter.  Does that make any sense?...your methods are probably better, with the data, in revealing the "Value" of a starter to the coach.  I may just be trying to see if there is another way to get there...Even if there is even a correlation of time to value for players.  I see coaches react when a player does something they do not like and the player is  often taken out and never goes back in.  There are other times when a player is taken out , talked to and is put back in.
Part of my thoughts were influenced by looking back at some of the Williams and Amherst battles covering the years of Nate Robertson and Willy Workman...two players that have started since their FY, I believe.  I see such things as Nate being the high scorer in the game that eliminated Amherst and sent Williams to the Final Four.....Wang going for 37 points to win a game and Toomey going for 22  to win a game, etc. and yet there are Nate and Willy on the floor at the end of those games.
I, in the back of my mind, believe that one will find that with many stars on their teams, that players like Nate and Willy and Sharry, and others will show up as having the most minutes on the floor in ALL the season games.

[amh63]

Hogging this board while awaiting the tough game tonight.  Amherst's women team is playing Wes. at the same time as the men's game!
Follow both teams.....but will pick the men's game.  I, like Walzy, have concerns.  Last year, in LeFrak, Amherst prevailed but not before being taught a lesson by RIC in the first half....in what to do against a quick, physical team.  Most of the games between the Anchormen and the Jeffs have been close.  I hope for a blowout so as to allow for the bench to gain experience battling a ranked team.  About 4 years ago, the regular season game late in the season was canceled due to weather....no spot to reschedule due to conference tourneys.  Amherst did play RIC that year...in the NCAA sectionals at Williams 74-70, if I remember it right....a close one, a battle.
7Express....thanks...all set for the on-line broadcast.....can switch to the Lady Jeffs' game.

Wanted to bring up a further topic for discussion but will wait for another day ...Teaser?...How did "CAC" schools overlook the star of the U. of Rochester team?....being from Staples HS in Fairfield/Wesport CT. region and the backyard of many conference schools.

[nescac1]

Nate Robertson is an interesting player in that he can fade into the woodwork for many games, but in big games, he tends to assert himself more and become much more aggressive (and in my view, more effective).  He did not start as a frosh, amh63, but he was the sixth man and played nearly starter-minutes down the stretch for a Williams team that made it all the way to the championship.  Despite being a frosh he was absolutely steller in the national semifinal game against a loaded Guilford team (14 points, 5 assists, 3 boards, only 1 TO, great shooting).  He did struggle a bit in the national title game vs, quick and aggressive guards, but still, that was one of the more impressive big-game performances you'll see from a frosh in a setting like that.  The next year, he was even better, putting together back-to-back games as good as any Eph I've seen in a pressure situation vs. Amherst and Wooster in the NCAA's ... 22 points, 7 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 threes vs. Amherst, and 21-1-1, on 5-7 shooting including 2 threes (despite ultimately fouling out while guarding an all-American) vs. Wooster, 15-15 from the line combined in those two games, plus playing great perimeter defense on the opponent's top player for much of each game.  Wang's back was already causing problems by that point and Troy suffered the broken hand vs. Amherst, so Nate really needed to put the team on his back in both games, and he did, and he almost single-handedly carried them to the title game, the team falling agonizingly short after he fouled out. 

He has been far more deferential in his approach since those games (last year was an injury-laden one which did not help, of course, but also, he took a back seat to Wang as the primary initiator), looking to get teammates involved first, but he was, for the first time in quite some time, extremely aggressive again in the big games last week vs. Amherst and Midd, penetrating into the lane effectively and serving as the initiator.  I hope to see more of the same in the big games ahead vs. Amherst and in the NESCAC tourney.   

He's a guy whose numbers will never really explain the full picture of his play (kind of like Tim Edwards from Midd a few years back), and a perfect example of the limitations of PER or other efficiency ratings.  I think most Williams fans still feel most comfortable in a big moment of a big game with the ball in his hands, even despite his struggles from the three point line this year and the occasional effort to thread the needle a bit TOO much ... he'll certainly be missed next season. 

[madzillagd]

amh63 - I think what you described to me is minutes played.    I mean, if you are looking for a measure of how the coach values a player it doesn't get any easier than how much does he play.  There may be some exceptions to that rule, for example Merryman doesn't play a whole lot of minutes but his value to the team is probably higher than some of the guys that get more minutes that he does.  On the flip side, Connor Green plays a lot of minutes but when it comes down to crunch time there are veteran players that Coach Hixon is going to value more.  If there was a crunch time stat of who plays in the final 5 minutes of a ball game that would likely be your answer but unfortunately we don't have that available.