MBB: NESCAC

[Panthernation]

Wesleyan loses to Hamilton and will enter the last week of the season playing for a berth in the . . . NESCAC tournament.

Sha Brown, after being outplayed by frosh Matt Hart, turned the ball over at the :20 mark with the Cards down 3. He then missed a lay-up with :12 left that would have cut a 4-point margin in half. Hamilton wins by 5.

The freshman Hart finishes with 23 points on 8-13 shooting (4-7 from three). The senior Brown scores 17, but was woeful from the field: 3-12. He also turned the ball over 5 times.

Wesleyan now has 5 losses in 8 conference games this season.

Nolan Thompson, Jake Wolfin, and Peter Lynch -- the "lack of leadership" trio -- have never had 5 losses in an entire season in their Middlebury careers.

The same trio has never had more than one regular season conference loss in a single season.

[Pat Coleman]

Yet listen to them talk—they will always defer to their teammates. Exhibit A: Nolan Thompson's recent interview with Pat Coleman. When asked about his defensive prowess, Nolan credited his coaches' film preparation and his teammates' help.

I was impressed by this answer -- there is nothing wrong with taking a little pride in your defense. It's about the most unselfish thing you can be good at on the floor, yet he deferred credit for that.

Great people and I have no doubt that they will do great things in life. Seeing Amherst the next day and Rochester the day after made me feel like Midd belongs in that class this year, no doubt. More than a little surprised with how Williams struggled this weekend, although I did not see them play. I know the road trip is tough, but that one point home win by Williams over Middlebury is looking more and more to me like it would have been a loss on a neutral floor.

[grabtherim]

The upcoming last weekend of NESCAC regular season play is fascinating to ponder.  First off, how will Amherst, Midd and Amherst fare against each other?  To me, just as interesting is the bottom half of the league and the fight for spots 5-8 with every team in play except CC. What are the tie breakers if the top three all end up with one loss each or the bottom half have a multiple tie?  Could happen.   

[nescac1]

The Williams-Midd thing is interesting.  Williams won relatively easily vs. Tufts and Bates on the road, while Midd struggled to beat both.  Meanwhile, Midd won relatively easily vs. Bowdoin and Colby on the road, while Williams struggled to beat both (even though Williams' margin of victory ended up being higher vs. Bowdoin by a point, oddly enough).  It was definitely not Williams' best weekend of play, just like the Tufts/Bates weekend was I imagine not Midd's best weekend of play, but both managed to go 4-0 over two very long, tough conference road trips.  If the Ephs carry over their awesome OT performance vs. Bowdoin into this week, they'll be fine.  Both teams seem to be getting healthier at the right time and Amherst seems to be basically at full strength as well, so I expect some very high caliber games this weekend. 

After seeing Williams and Midd play quite a bit, I do think the teams are roughly even, and if they played 10 times, they would probably split those ten.  Williams right now has a slightly stronger starting five, but Midd has a stronger bench.  Amherst seems to be playing at a slightly higher level than either mainly due to Toomey's insanely hot streak, but again, beating both back-to-back on the road will be very, very tough, and if Amherst-Williams is a real battle (which I expect) the question will be how much do the Jeffs have left in the tank less than 24 hours later?  I would not at all be shocked by a three way tie for first after next weekend.  If Amherst does beat Williams and lose to Midd, and both Williams and Midd beat Trinity, spots 1-3 would be decided by a coin flip.  Fingers crossed that Williams beats Amherst and moots the issue . 

[amh63]

Pondering the games played last weekend and putting off the games ahead....rather review some things.  First, I wish to thank Pat Coleman here for the fine broadcasts of the games at Amherst.  Saw him LIVE.  I watched the Amherst versus Tufts game on the video late last night after returning home.  It is surprising and sad for me to realize what I missed in a game or see in a replay how calls by refs could go the other way.  There were several calls that required the refs to gather a bit to decide.  I changed a number in my post to correct an error....cannot count.  Where am I going with this post?
I forgot to give credit to the play of Tufts....to Anderson who scored 35 points and was hard to stop.  The Tufts team supports the point that Grabtherim brought up.......in the tournament there are going to be very dangerous games for Amherst ahead.  Important to get the best seed.  Do not want to see Tufts again.  Bowdoin and their Bigs maybe coming around.  Hamilton beats Wes. and gave Amherst a scare.  Hamilton cannot be overlooked.   If the game that Tufts played against Amherst is the new norm for them....vice early season...I think they could beat Williams on a neutral court....first things first, I know.  Amherst is first on "Williams dance card".
Grab....to answer your question....Amherst will do quite well against Amherst. .....could not resist....since I do the same thing much to often lately.

[lefrakenstein]

Top 20 PERs in the NESCAC with 2 games to go:

Of note: 5 freshman in the top 10. Toomey is widening his lead on the top spot.


Aaron Toomey   Amherst   29.90
Ben Ferris           Tufts           27.91
George Papadeas   Trinity   26.85
Michael Mayer   Williams   26.34
Stephen HaladynaTufts           24.55
Peter Kaasila   Amherst   24.10
Connor Green   Amherst   23.89
Tom Palleschi   Tufts           23.83
Sam Willson           Colby           23.71
Matt Hart           Hamilton   23.58
Scott Anderson   Tufts           23.02
Joey Kizel           Midd           20.83
Taylor Epley   Williams   20.38
Graham Safford   Bates           20.36
Chris Hudnut   Colby           20.33
Mike Callaghan   Wes           20.17
Matt Vadas           CC          19.86
Nolan Thompson   Midd          19.78
Shasha Brown   Wes          19.25
Rashid Epps           Wes          19.03


Top 15 EWAs:

Aaron Toomey   Amherst   2.54
Ben Ferris           Tufts           1.82
Michael Mayer   Williams   1.77
Matt Hart           Hamilton   1.69
Scott Anderson   Tufts           1.63
Tom Palleschi   Tufts           1.48
Joey Kizel           Midd           1.47
Stephen Haladyna Tufts           1.43
Nolan Thompson   Midd           1.41
Peter Kaasila   Amherst   1.39
Taylor Epley   Williams   1.38
Shasha Brown   Wes       1.27
Mike Callaghan   Wes           1.27
Matt Vadas           CC           1.23
Graham Safford   Bates           1.14

These would suggest that the fallout for the NESCAC awards, as of right now, should be:

POY: Toomey

First Team:
Toomey, Ferris, Mayer, Anderson, Kizel

Second Team:
Thompson, Kaasila, Epley, Brown, Callaghan

ROY: Hart

That seems like a pretty good list to me. I doubt two Wesleyan players will make it though, so I might sub Vadas or Safford in for Callaghan.

[nescac1]

By the way, posted on another board here:

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/2010-2011-d3-mens-regional-rankings.html

Despite the url, this is current for this season.  Based on this, Williams and Midd are likely both in the tourney (ranked 3 and 8, nationally, respectively) so long as either gets even one more win this season.  Under this formula, Williams benefits quite a bit from playing so many road games, I think.  Amherst is ranked surprisingly low given the wins over Williams, RIC, and Brandeis.  But the Jeffs' SOS will surely rise quite a bit after two road games vs. top-tier competition this weekend.  If Amherst even gets a split, I'd have to think they are likely in, as well.  But if Amherst loses both games, they would, based on this info, be a bubble team without a NESCAC tourney championship. 

[nescac1]

lefrankenstein, the numbers aren't TOO far off, but I can't see how Kaasila is more valuable than Workman.  And Anderson, while having a very strong year and a truly stellar game vs. Amherst, I would not put above Workman, Epley, Thompson, or even Sha Brown or Vadas.  To me, Toomey and Mayer are first-team locks, Kizell will probably earn a spot as well, and after that, Workman, Epley, Brown, Thompson, Ferris, and Vadas are very closely grouped as contenders for the last two spots.  Four of those six I see on the second team, with Anderson probably just barely beating out Callaghan for the fifth spot, but a close call between those two.  Lynch and Kaasila might squeeze in as well, but I'm not sure coaches will want to give three slots to either Amherst or Midd, and both are in my mind pretty clearly the third most valuable players on their respective squads. 

Coach Maker on Hoopsville tonight:

http://athletics.williams.edu/sports/mbkb/2012-13/releases/20130204b5oapf

My guess is, as usual, he plays it pretty close to the vest.  He's not one to ever (1) divulge strategy, (2) provide bulletin board material for an opponent, or (3) critique his team (beyond extremely mild comments such as we could improve ...) in public, so I'm not sure how illuminating it will be.  But I would be curious to hear his take on the relative effectiveness of man vs. zone for the Ephs ...

[amh63]

To all the number crunchers and believers of such, I have a simple comment.  Let the season play out and occur as it should.  Enough time to see who is what and who will be selected.
Looking over the numbers a bit, I see two Tufts players on the first team!  Fine players but better than Willy Workman(see box of Tufts game).  To the website poster referred to by nescac1....strange!  RIC, Brandeis, Williams positioned ahead.....after Amherst has beaten all.  Wesleyan close behind Amherst...ahead of Tufts.  Voodoo type number manipulations to me
The first NCAA rankings.....regional ones....comes out this week, I believe...to cause more speculations and wonder!  Cannot wait

[Charles]

To all the number crunchers and believers of such, I have a simple comment.  Let the season play out and occur as it should.  Enough time to see who is what and who will be selected.
Looking over the numbers a bit, I see two Tufts players on the first team!  Fine players but better than Willy Workman.  To the website poster referred to by nescac1....strange!  RIC, Brandeis, Williams positioned ahead.....after Amherst has beaten all.  Wesleyan close behind Amherst...ahead of Tufts.  Voodoo type number manipulations to me
The first NCAA rankings.....regional ones....comes out this week, I believe...to cause more speculations and wonder!  Cannot wait

agreed, I was impressed with Amherst and think they could be the highest rated team in the region, plus they seem to have played the toughest OOC schedule.

[Panthernation]

These would suggest that the fallout for the NESCAC awards, as of right now, should be:
POY: Toomey
First Team:
Toomey, Ferris, Mayer, Anderson, Kizel
Second Team:
Thompson, Kaasila, Epley, Brown, Callaghan
ROY: Hart

That's not what it suggests. It suggests those players are at the top of a statistical category which is an incomplete measure of value. The PER system overvalues high shot quantity and high-risk defense, devaluing efficient offense and disciplined defense.

Also where are you getting all of the statistical inputs for PER? Don't you need possession and pace statistics that aren't available for these teams? Do you watch the film?

[lefrakenstein]

These would suggest that the fallout for the NESCAC awards, as of right now, should be:
POY: Toomey
First Team:
Toomey, Ferris, Mayer, Anderson, Kizel
Second Team:
Thompson, Kaasila, Epley, Brown, Callaghan
ROY: Hart

That's not what it suggests. It suggests those players are at the top of a statistical category which is an incomplete measure of value. The PER system overvalues high shot quantity and high-risk defense, devaluing efficient offense and disciplined defense.

Also where are you getting all of the statistical inputs for PER? Don't you need possession and pace statistics that aren't available for these teams? Do you watch the film?

As I've mentioned before, I don't include the pace adjustment. It's the one part of the formula that I don't have the available statistics for. (although I've been looking into ways to back into it) The pace adjustment is usually not large. The rest comes from the NESCAC website.

I think the limitations of PER have been amply covered, both by my own disclaimers, and by those of other posters. I post these because I find it interesting and others on the board have indicated that they find them interesting. I'm aware that the statistic is limited. To the extent that my phrase "These would suggest that the fallout for the NESCAC awards should be ..." suggested that I was unaware of the limitations, I apologize. It does get tiring repeatedly discussing the limitations though. It is what it is. If you don't find it interesting, don't read it.

[Panthernation]

These would suggest that the fallout for the NESCAC awards, as of right now, should be:
POY: Toomey
First Team:
Toomey, Ferris, Mayer, Anderson, Kizel
Second Team:
Thompson, Kaasila, Epley, Brown, Callaghan
ROY: Hart

That's not what it suggests. It suggests those players are at the top of a statistical category which is an incomplete measure of value. The PER system overvalues high shot quantity and high-risk defense, devaluing efficient offense and disciplined defense.

Also where are you getting all of the statistical inputs for PER? Don't you need possession and pace statistics that aren't available for these teams? Do you watch the film?

As I've mentioned before, I don't include the pace adjustment. It's the one part of the formula that I don't have the available statistics for. (although I've been looking into ways to back into it) The pace adjustment is usually not large. The rest comes from the NESCAC website.

I think the limitations of PER have been amply covered, both by my own disclaimers, and by those of other posters. I post these because I find it interesting and others on the board have indicated that they find them interesting. I'm aware that the statistic is limited. To the extent that my phrase "These would suggest that the fallout for the NESCAC awards should be ..." suggested that I was unaware of the limitations, I apologize. It does get tiring repeatedly discussing the limitations though. It is what it is. If you don't find it interesting, don't read it.

It's interesting for what it is, just didn't understand why it would be the basis for all-conference selections. Thanks for clarifying its reach/basis.

[grabtherim]

Does anyone have any feedback, opinions or info on Trinity basketball?  Middlebury has them on Friday night and not much if anything is written about them here.  The only thing I remember about them from past games versus the Panthers is their Tasmanian Devil of a coach screaming, stamping his feet and making anguished faces from the opening tap until the final horn.   

[walzy31]

Toomey received POTW as anticipated. I felt like I wrote the release.

I like Kizell as a player a lot and thought he deserved 1st team last year. However, his numbers are down across the board this year and I would put him as the Panthers 2nd team nod and give Thompson the 1st team election.

The big three will each get two players on those teams (Toomey, Workman, Mayer, Epley, Thompson & Kizell). Sha Brown will get one of them as a career nod and since he has made the team every year. The other three slots are up for discussion, as is who will be 1st and who will be 2nd. I would probably go with Vadas, Ferris, and Hart as my three with Bowdoin getting short-changed.