MBB: NESCAC

middhoops · February 11, 2013, 09:31:25 AM

Being a strong underdog in our own gym (notice to fans; get there early), Middlebury will be tough. The Panthers are long overdue to put a complete game together. They have the personnel and depth to do it, especially if some of the walking wounded return in uniform Tuesday.
Lynch on offense and Thompson on defense are clearly key for the Panthers.
Can Williamson have two scary offensive games back to back? Midd fans hope not.

nescac1 · February 11, 2013, 09:57:04 AM

Williamson gave Williams the most trouble down low. His offensive skills have really improved, always had the size and athletic ability but now seems to have figured out how to score consistently, he is the biggest difference between Amherst this year and last, well, that and now Kalema can shoot it consistently when before you could just dare him to shoot from deep.

Williams played Nate Robertson on Williamson at times, and when they did, he took Nate down in the post and abused him. Wohl who guarded him in the first game had much better luck. Nate is an excellent defender but that was a size and strength mismatch; Nate actually did much better guarding Toomey than Williamson. Not the best strategic move by the Ephs, there. Midd I think will face a similar problem if they put Thompson on Toomey, because Kizell and Wolfin are not nearly big or athletic enough to handle Williamson. I think Roberts can handle Kaasila fine, and Thompson will be able to shut down Workman or Willamson, or severely limit Toomey. The issue that Amherst presents for Midd's D is that Lynch is not nearly quick enough to guard Workman or Williamson, and Kizell and Wolfin are too small for either of them, so there will be two mismatches on that end, depending on who Thompson guards. I think Midd's best bet may be to play a lot of Lynch at center where he can bang with Kaasila (key will be him staying out of foul trouble which consistently plauges him it seems), put Jensen on Workman (Jensen has the size and athleticism to create problems there), hope Thompson can shut down Toomey, and then help out down low a bit if Williamson posts either smaller guard on him. I think that also happens to be Midd's best offensive line-up. On offense, I have no doubt that Kizell will be able to penetrate vs. Amherst, but I'm not sure who else will really be able to create. Midd needs Thompson and Wolfin to nail any open threes they get and hit some tough contested shots, something Williams was totally unable to do.

grabtherim · February 11, 2013, 10:11:19 AM

Not sure where Walzy will have this one at, but I see the Lord Jeffs at about the same number he had them at Williams. Hixon's squad create tough matchups all over the floor for not only NESCAC opponents but nationally as well. Middlebury has to defend and rebound the basketball better than they have in any other game this season to leave what I hope is a packed and crazy Pepin with a win. Rebounding in particular has been the Panthers biggest challenge this season after years of knowing Locke and Sharry were there to clean up the boards. I hope that after François belts out the National Anthem the Pepin faithful in full throat help the Panthers bring this one home. One thing for sure, both teams will be ready. Can't wait.

amh63 · February 11, 2013, 11:35:12 AM

Some random comments as I too await Old Guy's long awaited scripted "play" in Pepin.
Am amused by the Eph posters on how Coach Brown should plan for the game. Surprised that a new Midd poster thinks the Panthers are an underdog at home...is not Midd the higher ranked team?
Big Pete did miss some chipies yesterday...expect him to redeem himself and step up on Tuesday..
Williams must have saw how Kaasila impacted the Tufts game and prevented a repeat. Did a good job when Amherst tried to establish the inside game...turnovers/steals by the Ephs. Roberts may be a fine player but he is not a Mayer yet. He will have a hard time stopping Kaasila, IMO.
When Williams went into a zone...gave Amherst players open shots from outside. Did not the scouting reports point out that Amherst has outside shooters? I believe I posted that Kalema, Killian, Green (see Tufts game) and Williamson can hit from beyond the arc. Amherst's offense is not built on such players having to hit from outside. Amherst wins because of team defense and offense. Talented players that can play inside and outside. If the driving lanes are open, Williamson, Killian, Workman, Kalema, Green and Toomey will take them....Aaron even went coast to coast for a layup to stem a Williama run, I believe.
Bucket......will the students be in the stands.....back in school?

grabtherim · February 11, 2013, 11:42:49 AM

Quote from: amh63 on February 11, 2013, 11:35:12 AM
Some random comments as I too await Old Guy's long awaited scripted "play" in Pepin.
Am amused by the Eph posters on how Coach Brown should plan for the game. Surprised that a new Midd poster think the Panthers are an underdog at home...is not Midd the higher ranked team?

Forget the rankings on this one. I prefer to use what my eyeballs tell me and honest analysis from watching both teams play. Finally, it has to be remembered that Midd lost to Williams and Amherst took Williams apart two times. Seems to me Amherst has to be seen as the team to beat, even at Pepin. The best news is all of our drivel means nothing, the two teams will let us know by 9:00 tomorrow night how things go.

Bucket · February 11, 2013, 12:36:28 PM

Quote from: middhoops on February 11, 2013, 09:31:25 AM
especially if some of the walking wounded return in uniform Tuesday.

Bullock and Brierly have both been in uniform the past two games. Sinnickson will not play this year. Neither will Alvarez.

middhoops · February 11, 2013, 12:43:18 PM

AM63, you are correct that Midd is the higher ranked team.....as of this minute. By the time the D3 hoops poll comes out tonight, that's doubtful.
Amherst is arguably the hottest and perhaps the best team in D3 now. I'm a Panther fan and even I wouldn't take Midd and 2 points for ten bucks tomorrow. Other than hard core Pepin faithful, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who would put money on Middlebury tomorrow.
If Middlebury plays great, they can win. Otherwise, they won't. Amherst is too talented, athletic and on a roll.

Panthernation · February 11, 2013, 12:48:07 PM

Regarding matchups tomorrow, it's important to remember Kizel spent much of last year's games on Toomey (remember his big steal on Toomey to spark Middlebury's comeback in the championship game?), with Thompson on the 2 or 3. Wouldn't be surprised if that happened again, at least for long stretches.

Bucket · February 11, 2013, 12:48:41 PM

Quote from: amh63 on February 11, 2013, 11:35:12 AM
Some random comments as I too await Old Guy's long awaited scripted "play" in Pepin.
Am amused by the Eph posters on how Coach Brown should plan for the game. Surprised that a new Midd poster thinks the Panthers are an underdog at home...is not Midd the higher ranked team?
Big Pete did miss some chipies yesterday...expect him to redeem himself and step up on Tuesday..
Williams must have saw how Kaasila impacted the Tufts game and prevented a repeat. Did a good job when Amherst tried to establish the inside game...turnovers/steals by the Ephs. Roberts may be a fine player but he is not a Mayer yet. He will have a hard time stopping Kaasila, IMO.
When Williams went into a zone...gave Amherst players open shots from outside. Did not the scouting reports point out that Amherst has outside shooters? I believe I posted that Kalema, Killian, Green (see Tufts game) and Williamson can hit from beyond the arc. Amherst's offense is not built on such players having to hit from outside. Amherst wins because of team defense and offense. Talented players that can play inside and outside. If the driving lanes are open, Williamson, Killian, Workman, Kalema, Green and Toomey will take them....Aaron even went coast to coast for a layup to stem a Williama run, I believe.
Bucket......will the students be in the stands.....back in school?

Some thoughts:

Thought nescac1's write-up was a good analysis of what to look for. I seem to recall Kizel guarding Toomey for stretches last year; one series he picked his pocket at midcourt and then converted an and-one. Kizel on Toomey would allow Thompson to shift to Workman or Williamson.
I agree that rankings matter not a whit this game, but if one is to look at rankings, then the regional rankings would be the ones to refer to. Regionally, Amherst is ranked higher.
"Roberts may be a fine player but he is not a Mayer yet." Michael Mayer is the best offensive post player in the league, no question. But I believe that Roberts is a better defender; he blocks and alters more shots and has gotten much better at establishing defensive position in the post. I do worry that Kasilla may prove to be too strong for Jack, in which case Lynch might be a better option. (But we need Pete on the floor offensively; he cannot afford to get in foul trouble.) And the type of post player Roberts tends to have trouble with is the quicker post guys. I think Jack will be fine.
Students are back. Here's hoping that Pepin is hoppin' tomorrow night.

lefrakenstein · February 11, 2013, 01:03:00 PM

Interesting note. The team estimated wins suggests that Tufts is actually a slightly better team that Williams this year. Granted, these numbers miss defensive contributions, and like any good Bob Sheldon team, this year's Tufts squad does not have a lot in terms of defensive contributors. So Williams is probably better than Tufts by a least a little bit.

In any case, even with the defensive caveat aside, the numbers strongly suggest that Williams is lucky to have 8 wins. Their differential between Estimated and Actual wins is by far the most positive of any team.

But the numbers do suggest that Amherst and Midd are really in a class of their own in the league this year.

Team     Actual Wins   Predicted Wins    Differential
Amherst     9     8.2     0.8
Midd     8     7.8     0.2
Wes 4     5.2     -1.2
Tufts      6     5.7 0.3
Bates     4     4.7     - 0.7
Bowdoin     5     3.8     1.2
Williams     8     5.6     2.4
Hamilton     3     3.4     -0.4
Trinity     2     1.9     0.1
CC       0     -0.5     0.5
Colby     2     1.1     0.9

NOTE - these numbers are now pace adjusted. Although possession statistics are not available, I used this formula to estimate the pace factor: estimated pace adjustment = 2 * lg_PPG / (team_PPG + opp_PPG)

This is the formula that Basketball-reference.com uses to estimate the pace factor for seasons prior to the 1973 season. The root mean square error of their estimates is less than 2%. Here's a link to the explanation: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

The pace adjustment kills Amherst and Tufts, which have played at a very high pace this year, and greatly benefits Midd and Trinity. The effect on most other teams is minor.

pick and roll · February 11, 2013, 01:03:14 PM

Agree with Bucket - Roberts leads league in blocks which could cause problems for Jeff's taking it to the basket. Jensen has been getting starter minutes and is often on the court at the end of games. Merryman also plays a big roll for Midd off the bench - he will have an impact especially with his outside shooting. Homecourt is a big factor in this game - it was last year too.

lefrakenstein · February 11, 2013, 01:26:45 PM

One other interesting statistical tidbit on the importance of depth in the NESCAC.

There are 21 negative EWA rotation players in the league. This means that they play at least 10 min a game and have PERs below that of a "replacement player". Not a single one of these players plays on Amherst, Williams or Midd. Only one plays for Tufts.

middhoops · February 11, 2013, 01:32:16 PM

Home court has been key for the past few years with Amherst and Middlebury. Other than one Middlebury win at LeFrak in 2010 (by 13) the home team has held serve since 2007, I think. Tuesday, that is the Panthers' best hope.
Question to Jeffs fans. Is their a big guy in the pipeline to take Big Pete's place next year? We Midd fans won't be sorry to see him graduate from a great college and move on to grad school or his professional life. I'm comfortable in thinking Jack Roberts and Michael Mayer agree with this statement.

LarryBasketball33 · February 11, 2013, 04:06:57 PM

Quote from: Panthernation on February 11, 2013, 12:48:07 PM
Regarding matchups tomorrow, it's important to remember Kizel spent much of last year's games on Toomey (remember his big steal on Toomey to spark Middlebury's comeback in the championship game?), with Thompson on the 2 or 3. Wouldn't be surprised if that happened again, at least for long stretches.

I have read your blog. Well written. As Midd students, do you think other Midd students and locals will fill Pepin tomorrow to see two highly ranked basketball teams go at it as they do at the rink for a midddle of the pack hockey team?

pick and roll · February 11, 2013, 05:12:49 PM

Larry - I think Midd students began to shift their alligence from hockey to basketball with the arrival of Andrew Harris and Mike Walsh. The Middlebury locals still love their panther hockey team and I believe they still put an exciting team on the ice every year. I have been to several home NCAA games the last couple of years and Pepin was sold out. Expect the same for these next few home games.