MBB: NESCAC

[Panthernation]

Cross-posting our latest blog post: "Nolan Thompson Should Win Conference Player of the Year" (http://blogs.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2013/02/16/nolan-thompson-should-win-nescac-player-of-the-year/)

The NESCAC Player of the Year talk is heating up, and with coaches voting on awards this week and announcements coming out at the end of the tournament, we wanted to make our nomination today, before postseason play starts. While most NESCAC observes are prognosticating a three-way race between Aaron Toomey, Willy Workman, and Michael Mayer, we think one player has been more valuable than any of the three: Nolan Thompson.

There is a good case to be made for the superstars mentioned above. Their conference statistics, followed by Thompson’s, went as follows:

Toomey: 18.6 ppg, 48/51/87 shooting, 4.7 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.8 spg, 34.6 mpg, 19 turnovers
Mayer: 17.9 ppg, 59/44/77 shooting, 8.4 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.4 spg, 1.2 bpg, 30.4 mpg, 25 turnovers
Workman:  12.7 ppg, 53/48/70 shooting, 7.6 ppg, 4.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.5 bpg, 33.9 mpg, 18 turnovers
Thompson: 14.0 ppg, 54/52/91 shooting, 5.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 38.2 mpg, 9 turnovers

Among the four, Thompson ranks 3rd in ppg, 2nd in FG%, 1st in 3PT%, 1st in FT%, 3rd in rpg, 4th in apg, 3rd in spg, 4th in bpg, 1st in mpg, and 1st in TOs.

In other words, based on purely traditional metrics, Thompson belongs firmly in the discussion. But it is the non-traditional numbers that define Thompson as a player and separate him from the pack. The following is a list of each conference matchup this season, with the statistics of the player Thompson guarded, followed by their conference averages.

Bates: (Don’t remember/know)
Tufts: Ben Ferris 2-3 FG, 4 points, 2 turnovers (Conference: 13.8 ppg, 43-87 FG)
Connecticut College: Matt Vadas 2-6 FG, 7 points, 3 turnovers (Conference: 19.1 ppg, 54-143 FG)
Wesleyan:* Shasha Brown 3-10 FG, 9 points, 2 turnovers (Conference: 18.9 ppg, 62-136 FG)
Williams: Taylor Epley 1-6 FG, 4 points, 3 turnovers (Conference: 18.2 ppg, 64-134 FG)
Hamilton: (Don’t remember/know)
Bowdoin: Bryan Hurley 1-5 FG, 3 points, 4 turnovers (Conference: 8.9 ppg, 27-86 FG)
Colby: (Don’t remember/know)
Trinity:** Mick Distasio 1-6 FG, 2 points, 5 turnovers (Conference: 5.9 ppg, 19-51 FG)
Amherst:*** Aaron Toomey 3-11 FG, 7 points, 1 turnover (Conference: 18.6 ppg, 54-107 FG);
Willy Workman 2-3, 4 points, 1 turnover (Conference: 12.7 ppg, 40-76 FG)

(Conference statistics subtract Middlebury game in order to accurately reflect statistical difference. For the Amherst and Wesleyan games, I only changed the field goal numbers, because the scoring totals are in majority reflections of non-Nolan defenders. Can explain more if necessary.)
*Brown scored 20 points in the game, but the tape shows 11 that were essentially out of Nolan’s control (fastbreak layup off of turnover, baskets after switches on screens, free throw put-pack)
**Distasio scored 5 points in the game, but at this point we were keeping close track to points allowed by Nolan, and it was 2.
*** Explanation for the numbers decided upon here can be read in our Amherst post-game note.

Thompson held the combination of Ferris, Brown, Vadas, and Epley, four of the top ten players in the league, to a combined 46 points under their season averages, an average of 11.5 fewer points per player per game.
He held Hurley and Distasio, two good but not great players, to a combined 9.8 points under their season averages.
He held Toomey and Workman to a combined 11 points in 55 minutes, whereas their season averages applied to the number of minutes he guarded each would have predicted 25.8 points, 14.8 points more than he allowed.
While a big part of Thompson’s game is limiting touches and shot attempts, his shot defense was stellar as well. These eight players shot a combined 15-50 from the field against Thompson, a 30% rate. They combined to shoot 45% in conference away from Thompson.
No player made more than 3 field goals in a game against Thompson.

In sum, he held this group of players to abysmal shooting on their way to an average of 10.01 points under their season averages per game. The 10.01 points per game that he took away represents 64% of their average points per game.

This is a group of matchups that includes point guards, power forwards, and every position in between.
It includes players of the following heights: 5’10″, 5’11″, 6’2″, 6’3″, 6’4″, and 6’6″.
Of the eight players listed, six (Toomey, Workman, Brown, Vadas, Ferris, Epley) are likely to make an All-Conference team.
Every player except Epley, and arguably Hurley or Distasio, is the best player on his respective team.
While guarding these players, and despite playing 38.9 minutes per game, Nolan committed 10 fouls in all of conference play. At least 2 were intentional fouls in end-of-game situations. He ranked 2nd in the conference in minutes, and 89th in fouls (and 20% of the fouls were intentional!).
Speaking of minutes, Nolan would have played them all if Jeff Brown had let him. He went 40 against Williams and 55 against Amherst.

What Thompson accomplished night-in and night-out was both unbelievable and most likely unprecedented. He was assigned to guard every great player he could have possibly guarded in the conference and he won every matchup decisively. We believe that this resume is enough to make up for the (not-as-significant-as-you-would-think) difference between he and the other three in a comparison of traditional statistics. (Did you see those offensive efficiency numbers?)

This is not to say that we do not realize that all three of the players mentioned bring value that is not measured on the stat sheet. Toomey and Mayer both completely change the ways defenses play and create space and opportunities for their teammates like nobody else in the conference. Workman’s versatility is extremely valuable and dangerous, and he plays excellent defense as well (though most of the value of Workman’s roaming, risk-taking style of defense is reflected on the stat sheet). Much like Thompson, these three bring unique challenges to opposing coaches that go beyond the numbers.

Yet, having watched all of these guys play several times each, and looking closely at all of the measurables and considering all of the other factors and analytical inputs that we could come up with, we felt that Thompson was the most valuable of the bunch. The defensive numbers speak to his astonishing value.

While we did not count this toward our decision, it is worth mentioning that Thompson is a one-of-a-kind teammate and leader. His interview with Pat Coleman reflected his class and selflessness (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=eIdo7DtdneU). It goes beyond that though, as he is the silent example-setter who everybody else on the team follows in work ethic and attitude. Assistant Coach Alex Popp told us he has literally never heard Nolan make an excuse. Thompson is always in the gym shooting, and in the few moments when he goes to the bench during games, he is the most enthusiastic and vocal supporter of his teammates. He never talks about himself and he is filled with sincere compliments and appreciation directed toward his teammates and coaches. He exemplifies the leadership and character of the Division III student-athlete.

He is also, in our view, the best player in the conference.

While we will be coming out with our All-NESCAC teams soon, here are our picks for the other individual post-season awards:
COY: David Hixon, Amherst (Two straight years without losing in conference, while replacing three significant contributors, with the competitiveness at this level, is remarkable)
ROY: Tom Palleschi (His in-conference numbers almost earned him a spot on our Second-Team All-Conference)
DPOY: Thompson

[Panthernation]

And if that wasn't enough reading for one morning, here is our preview of today's Wesleyan-Middlebury game. Just 2,000 more words. http://blogs.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2013/02/16/nescac-quarterfinal-wesleyan-revisited/

[jayhawk]

Tufts with excellent recruiting class see NERR: http://www.newenglandrecruitingreport.com/news/article/2974/Commitment-CatchUp.php
Bringing in fine big men and guard
Chance to be powerhouse

[pick and roll]

Panther Nation - great argument supported by stats - particularly on Thompson's ability to shut down the other teams best player while still putting up great numbers on the offensive end.  I would have thought Toomey was shoe in for POY until the Midd Amherst game.  You have convinced me Thompson is the guy.

[nescac1]

Panthernation, you've convinced me that Thompson has earned a spot on the first team.  But I would not put him above the other contenders as player of the year.  He is indeed a tremendous defender, but while he has worked hard to become a very good and very clutch shooter (who has been particularly good in NESCAC games, but other games are not irrelevant and the other guys have performed at the same offensive level in a bigger sample vs. non-NESCAC opponents, while Thompson has not), he is just not the offensive creator that the other three guys are.  From what I've seen his shots tend mainly to come off of offense created by Kizell and Wolfin, or off passes out from the big guys, and he is not the focus of the other team's defense.  Mayer, Workman, and Toomey are all guys who are dominant one-on-one offensive players who create opportunities on their own and also for their teammates.  Thompson is a savvy player who finds good shots in the team game, but who rarely breaks down the defense on his own.  Workman is also a senior, also a lock-down defender, but is way more difficult to guard on the other end.  And Toomey and Mayer are both well ahead of Thompson offensively, and Mayer also carries the load on the glass for Williams.  As great as his defense is, I'd still put him behind those guys (and probably Kizell as well, actually).  But I'm very comfortable now with those five as the first team all-NESCAC. 

[pick and roll]

I will defer to Panthernation who sees more games than me, but I would argue Thompson is not a primary option on the team.  He plays an unselfish game, however, when needed he seems to always rise to the occasion as he did in the second half against Amherst when he did create his own shot and took the ball to the basket as well as hit big outside shots.  Those head to head numbers are incredible.

[toad22]

All of today's games except Amherst/Colby are highly competitive. If I were a Panther fan I would be very worried. Wes will not go down without a fight. Tufts/Bowdoin seems very even to me (given it is the 4/5 game you would expect that). Williams will need to play very well today to survive. Bates plays hard all the time, and Furbush is establishing himself a a very fine coach. Williams is likely to be down two of their top 5. This on a team where only 6 see many minutes, so big games from Robertson, Mayer and Epley are needed. If Klemm can play today, that will make things a lot better for the Ephs. For all the moaning on this board that the NESCAC has weakness below the to 3-4 teams, I see 7 very capable teams. Colby will soon be in that catagory, as they mature and fill in with new players.

[O-Boards10]

As an avid NESCAC basketball fan, I seem to have some questions and comments regarding the All-CAC teams. The crazy team is spot on, good job Walzy. However, problems arise with the 1st and 2nd all NESCAC teams. I think there will be five kids on the first team: Toomey, Workman, Mayer, Kizel, Thompson. Second teams should be as follows: Anderson, Ferris, Sha, Epley, Vadas. Player of year has to go to Workman. He does it all, offense and defense and defensive player of year should go to Thompson. In an outstanding year for first years, there seems to be a bunch of deserving players. My order looks like: Paleschi, Shill, Hart, Halydyna, Hudnut. I think Paleschi edges out Shill and Hart because his team has made the NESCAC playoffs and he was a big reason why. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if Hart or Shill won the award either, as both had good first year seasons. Coach of the year has got to go to Hixon. Undefeated in NESCAC play is just a tremendous job. Any disagreements with my post season accolades???

He may be the odd man out, but Bryan Hurley deserves some credit for the season he has had at Bowdoin. Guard may be loaded, but I can't imagine that there isn't a 2nd team spot for a guy who is 2nd in the country in assists. Find me the last NESCAC player who dished out 8.8 assists/game. What's more impressive is that he accumulated that many assists, even though the two lead scorers from last year, Hanley and O'Connell, graduated.

[Charles]

Charles ... clearly this is your first All-Crazy Team, but it's fine by us.

Perhaps we could put together the all flop team or maybe top 5 complainers over every call team? See, where would it stop? Sometimes these fans forget that these are kids playing.

[madzillagd]

They are young adults, they are not kids.  I think they would be more offended to be called and treated like kids than anything that's been said on this board.

[Panthernation]

Panthernation, you've convinced me that Thompson has earned a spot on the first team.  But I would not put him above the other contenders as player of the year.  He is indeed a tremendous defender, but while he has worked hard to become a very good and very clutch shooter (who has been particularly good in NESCAC games, but other games are not irrelevant and the other guys have performed at the same offensive level in a bigger sample vs. non-NESCAC opponents, while Thompson has not), he is just not the offensive creator that the other three guys are.  From what I've seen his shots tend mainly to come off of offense created by Kizell and Wolfin, or off passes out from the big guys, and he is not the focus of the other team's defense.  Mayer, Workman, and Toomey are all guys who are dominant one-on-one offensive players who create opportunities on their own and also for their teammates.  Thompson is a savvy player who finds good shots in the team game, but who rarely breaks down the defense on his own.  Workman is also a senior, also a lock-down defender, but is way more difficult to guard on the other end.  And Toomey and Mayer are both well ahead of Thompson offensively, and Mayer also carries the load on the glass for Williams.  As great as his defense is, I'd still put him behind those guys (and probably Kizell as well, actually).  But I'm very comfortable now with those five as the first team all-NESCAC.

Thanks for the feedback. If you add in non-conference play, three of the guys you have ahead of Thompson (Toomey, Workman, Kizel) see more significant drops in their numbers than Thompson, so that sample size argument isn't actually strong. Moreover, if you include non-conference play, it would just make that list of Nolan's defensive matchups more impressive and show the number of points he has prevented on this team is astronomical. We actually thought the awards were for conference play, though; are you sure they are not? Either way, don't think it would affect our choice. Here are their respective difference in ppg/rpg/apg... fg%/3fg%/ft% between conference play and full season (using conference stats from above):

Thompson: -1.2/+0.3/-0.1 ... -2%/-7%/-5%
Toomey: -1.3/-0.1/-0.4 ... -4%/-8%/+5%
Workman: -0.2/+0.2/-0.5 ... -5%/-6%/+5%
Kizel: -2.8/-0.8/-0.8 ... 0%/-4%-0%
Mayer: -0.6/+0.1/-0.3 ... -2%/-3%/0%

So, Toomey loses more every category (except ft%) than Thompson, and Thompson is about middle-of-the-pack with the other three. Just don't see how the non-conference play really changes the picture much.

While we agree he is not a better offensive player than Toomey or Mayer, he is close enough that the defensive difference (which is huge, especially with these two, who are significant liabilities at times) makes up for it. He is not just a spot-up shooter; he is a great ball-handler, and a guy who creates a good amount of shots for himself. He has a floater which is polished and effective, and he can elevate and finish around the rim in traffic. He has not scored 14.0 ppg merely by hitting open shots. In the Amherst game, he scored 10 in a row at one point during the comeback, and (from blurred memory) 5 of them were off the dribble. Just to say he creates offense when called upon, which isn't too irregularly. But again, all that needs to be shown is that he is closer to those four on offense than they are to him on defense. Defense is a huge part of basketball, and Thompson's defense was in another stratosphere this season.

[walzy31]

I can't compete with the marketing that Panthernation is putting out there. He has more energy to make his case for Thompson as POY than I do for Toomey. But I do disagree and Nate Silver says you need to offer wagers when differences in predictions occur.

Thompson will be 1st team all nescac. He will probably win DPOY.

Toomey will be POY and I'll take anyone's action (even money +100) if they pick one player and I get Aaron.
If you want the field (aka if you want Workman, Thompson, and Mayer), then I'll take 5:2 odds (+250) on Aaron.

Real offer Panthernation. Old Guy has my email address.

[madzillagd]

While I feel like Thompson is the most valuable player on his team, I'm one of those that believes you give it to the best player on the best team unless there is a huge gap between those being considered.  There is not a huge gap in this case, so I think someone on Amherst should get the nod this year.  Although Workman is huge on the team, I still give it to the guy that makes them go in Toomey. 

[Panthernation]

I can't compete with the marketing that Panthernation is putting out there. He has more energy to make his case for Thompson as POY than I do for Toomey. But I do disagree and Nate Silver says you need to offer wagers when differences in predictions occur.

Thompson will be 1st team all nescac. He will probably win DPOY.

Toomey will be POY and I'll take anyone's action (even money +100) if they pick one player and I get Aaron.
If you want the field (aka if you want Workman, Thompson, and Mayer), then I'll take 5:2 odds (+250) on Aaron.

Real offer Panthernation. Old Guy has my email address.

Big difference between who should win player of the year and who will. Expecting Toomey to win; doesn't change anything about the argument. And what are we missing on Toomey that you could show us with that extra energy?

[walzy31]

I can't compete with the marketing that Panthernation is putting out there. He has more energy to make his case for Thompson as POY than I do for Toomey. But I do disagree and Nate Silver says you need to offer wagers when differences in predictions occur.

Thompson will be 1st team all nescac. He will probably win DPOY.

Toomey will be POY and I'll take anyone's action (even money +100) if they pick one player and I get Aaron.
If you want the field (aka if you want Workman, Thompson, and Mayer), then I'll take 5:2 odds (+250) on Aaron.

Real offer Panthernation. Old Guy has my email address.

Big difference between who should win player of the year and who will. Expecting Toomey to win; doesn't change anything about the argument. And what are we missing on Toomey that you could show us with that extra energy?

Fair enough, no bet.
Here are a few things (#2 being more tangible than the others):

1) What would Amherst's record be without Toomey? Probably in the 18-6 range. How about Middlebury without Thompson? 21-3 instead of 22-2? Pulling those numbers out of the air, but think they are pretty accurate. I would put Kizel ahead of Thompson for being more valuable from a wins/losses perspective.

2) When a team scouts either Amherst or Middlebury, they have to account for a lot. I would assume Toomey is the #1 priority on every opponent's scout. Thompson is somewhere in the 3-5 range for Middlebury. You can be great at the game of basketball and do a lot of things extremely well like Thompson does, but if you have two or three guys that are bigger priorities to stop on your own team then I don't think you have an argument for POY.

3) Also, the horse has been beaten, but in one sentence worth mentioning again that the two teams played very different opposition this season. Some sort of adjustment could be factored into normalizing the two sets of average statistics for the two players (from an offensive production standpoint...I take nothing away from what Thompson has done on defense).