MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

Finally alert this morning.....ready to respond carefully.
Frank U......very clever post.  Like the "C" names to match the "N"'s and thoughtful content.  Almost a poetic verse...Haku maybe?  What do you think Old Guy?...on the matter and the verse/couplet?
My money goes to the requirement for Both.. recruiting and coaching to achieve goals of titles/wins......like Coach K and even Coach Bobby Knight...though Bobby can be a little rough on recruits and chairs at times (not saying I agree with Coach B methods).

Vandy74....you actually saw Old Guy play!..will you share sometime your impressions/memories?

Thank you for the NYTimes data.  Do not read the Times.  Prefer the WSJ....did not get the paper today...mad...must do my chores and calm down.
Oh yes...on the women's side....a number of upsets of ranked teams....including a BIG upset of ranked Southern Maine...a D3 projection for the Final 4 by Amherst neighbor..Smith College...in its 1st NCAA tourney.
See Vandy....D3 is not "all seeing"....at least on the WBB side....maybe because it was written by a Trinity College grad.

Await the games tonight.....good luck to all the "CAC" teams!!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I have one issues with the NYT article:

It is an unprecedented gap, a one-year-only schedule change the N.C.A.A. pushed through, against the wishes of many Division III coaches, to have the men's championships for all three divisions played in Atlanta over the Final Four weekend in April to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the organization.

Division III was given the chance to go with this option or say no thank you... they took their time and checked with coaches, schools, and conferences and decide to approve the plan to move forward with the championship game in Atlanta. The idea that it was "pushed through, against the wishes of many Division III coaches" isn't exactly a fair representation of what happened. If that many coaches were against it and that information was relayed accordingly to those ultimately deciding on the plan (which I think went through at least two committees made up of only Division III members), then it would have been voted down.

I think at best the coaches I have spoken to and who have relayed their colleagues opinions have been 50/50 on the idea since it was announced, otherwise most have said that while the schedule isn't that great they are happy to be getting Division III in the spotlight in Atlanta.

[Panthernation]

Be careful with the conclusion because he was D1 at UMass he is a superior talent - might be true in his case, but if he was so good why is he at Curry? There is some D1 talent on all there these NESCAC teams still playing.

Curry's coach, Malcolm Wynn came from the Juco ranks and has lots of contacts in the Boston HS scene.  He's usually first in line for guys who would rather get PT than a scholarship.  He's also been successful in getting guys who've had selfish streaks play team ball.

I'm not sure Jones is a d1 talent, but he's got scoring ability above the level of his typical competition.  I really think the key to Curry hanging will be if Jones is willing to be more of a decoy.  The other players on the team can handle a bigger load than they've typically had to shoulder.  If Jones can make his looks count enough that Midd has to keep Thompson on him, they might be able to get some daylight from the other guys.

I've been following the CCC for 12 or 13 seasons now.  This Curry team has more potential than all buy one team we've sent to the tournament.  I don't expect Curry to win, but they have the ability to do it, which is far better than previous CCC champs when compared to NESCAC squads.

I don't think Middlebury is underestimating Curry, which is probably enough to equal a win.  But Curry is not a one player squad.  If they do enough to completely shut down Jones, the rest of the team can pick up the slack.  I'm sure they'll just play it straight up; Jones will get his points, but it won't be enough to win.

Hoops Fan,

Doing quite a bit of research on Curry right now. Noticed that Curry's 6'7'' Center Ted Amendola hasn't played since Jan 31. Any idea what happened and what his status is for this game?

[amh63]

Yes, these times are a changing...paraphrase from my era singer Bob D.
Why am I back?
Got my WSJ and there is an article....that Nerds are chic!  High school kids are taking advanced statistics courses.  Want to "mine" data.
Article cites the high rise of statistics majors at Harvard, U. of Cal. Berkeley, and yes even Williams College.  Is Williams becoming more nerdy these days?    Smart students/athletes!  Want to learn how to play better BB.
Yes it is becoming a new view of everything.  Instead of sking DOWN the hill, it seems that there is a rise of a new ski sport....Ski Climbing!  going UP the hill.  Maybe it will become a new NCAA sport!  Oops...skateboarding/snowboarding first.

[Pat Coleman]

I have one issues with the NYT article:

It is an unprecedented gap, a one-year-only schedule change the N.C.A.A. pushed through, against the wishes of many Division III coaches, to have the men's championships for all three divisions played in Atlanta over the Final Four weekend in April to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the organization.

Division III was given the chance to go with this option or say no thank you... they took their time and checked with coaches, schools, and conferences and decide to approve the plan to move forward with the championship game in Atlanta. The idea that it was "pushed through, against the wishes of many Division III coaches" isn't exactly a fair representation of what happened. If that many coaches were against it and that information was relayed accordingly to those ultimately deciding on the plan (which I think went through at least two committees made up of only Division III members), then it would have been voted down.

I think at best the coaches I have spoken to and who have relayed their colleagues opinions have been 50/50 on the idea since it was announced, otherwise most have said that while the schedule isn't that great they are happy to be getting Division III in the spotlight in Atlanta.

Against the wishes of many Division III coaches -- hard to deny that this is possible, right?

Pushed through -- I don't suspect you or I really know the whole story, so this is hard to factually deny either. We have to agree that you and I only know what we've been told. Even though Division III was given a chance to say no, nobody here knows how that was couched. I'm sure some D-III folks could have felt they had to go along with it. Heck, I was at a different Final Four than you were last year, remember, and I did not get the same vibe you did about the upcoming change.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Be careful with the conclusion because he was D1 at UMass he is a superior talent - might be true in his case, but if he was so good why is he at Curry? There is some D1 talent on all there these NESCAC teams still playing.

Curry's coach, Malcolm Wynn came from the Juco ranks and has lots of contacts in the Boston HS scene.  He's usually first in line for guys who would rather get PT than a scholarship.  He's also been successful in getting guys who've had selfish streaks play team ball.

I'm not sure Jones is a d1 talent, but he's got scoring ability above the level of his typical competition.  I really think the key to Curry hanging will be if Jones is willing to be more of a decoy.  The other players on the team can handle a bigger load than they've typically had to shoulder.  If Jones can make his looks count enough that Midd has to keep Thompson on him, they might be able to get some daylight from the other guys.

I've been following the CCC for 12 or 13 seasons now.  This Curry team has more potential than all buy one team we've sent to the tournament.  I don't expect Curry to win, but they have the ability to do it, which is far better than previous CCC champs when compared to NESCAC squads.

I don't think Middlebury is underestimating Curry, which is probably enough to equal a win.  But Curry is not a one player squad.  If they do enough to completely shut down Jones, the rest of the team can pick up the slack.  I'm sure they'll just play it straight up; Jones will get his points, but it won't be enough to win.

Hoops Fan,

Doing quite a bit of research on Curry right now. Noticed that Curry's 6'7'' Center Ted Amendola hasn't played since Jan 31. Any idea what happened and what his status is for this game?

I'm not aware that he was ever a huge part of the team.  News around the CCC has been especially hard to come by this year.  It took weeks to figure out if one of the best players in the league was out due to injury or grades in January.  It's just a bad year for figuring those sorts of things out.  I imagine an injury, but again, he's never been a big enough part of the team for me to notice.

[frank uible]

Better analysis of performance is certainly not the same thing as better performance.

[lefrakenstein]

Messing around w/ some more stats. Here are the top 20 players (min 100 minutes played) from the NESCAC regular season in terms of rebound rate , or roughly the percentage of available rebounds they grab while on the floor:

George Papadeas   Trinity   25.25
John Swords           Bowdoin   22.57
Rashid Epps            Wes   21.95
Glen Thomas           Wes           21.62
Bradley Gifford           Hamilton   20.44
Michael Mayer          Williams   17.14
Ben Ferris                    Tufts   17.09
Tom Palleschi            Tufts   16.18
Patrick Stewart   Colby   15.77
Mike Boornazian   Bates   14.57
Matt Vadas               CC   14.53
Ben Pollack       Amherst   14.50
Peter Kaasila      Amherst   14.49
Ed Bogdanovich   Bates   14.39
Aaron McBurnie       CC   13.58
Willy Workman      Amherst   13.46
Shay Ajayi          Trinity   13.46
Mike Callaghan            Wes   13.36
Matt Lanchantin    Tufts   13.34
Chris Hudnut           Colby   13.24


Of note - not one Midd player in the top 20 - Roberts is 21st. Lynch is 40th.

Epley had the lowest rebound rate of any non-guard in the entire NESCAC. That pretty much sums up why I didn't think he should make 2nd team. Again though, his one-on-one D might make up for this to at least some extent.

[lefrakenstein]

And top 20 true shooting %s in the league. (min 40 shots) The Panthernation guys are gonna like this one. For reference, in the NBA, 53% is about average. The median for qualifying players in the NESCAC was just under 55%.

One argument that the Panthernation guys made on their podcast (nice job by the way, I enjoyed that) was that Toomey often jacks up shots three-feet behind the baseline instead of looking for teammates. The data suggests that his shots are still the best on the team. Also, the guy was second in the league in assists.

Also, there was a lot of talk on there about Toomey's rough performance in the NESCAC finals and regular season matchup against Midd. I'm just going to throw it out there that I remember some posts about how it's bad analysis to emphasize certain games over others.

Daniel Wohl         Williams   72.01%
Nolan Thompson    Midd   71.25%
Stephen Haladyna    Tufts   70.83%
Patrick Stewart   Colby   67.61%
Aaron Toomey      Amherst   67.49%
Michael Mayer       Williams   66.57%
Joey Kizel                    Midd   66.35%
Connor Green      Amherst   66.02%
Maximilian Staiger   Bowdoin   65.89%
Willy Workman      Amherst   65.73%
Mason Lopez               CC   64.47%
Sam Willson           Colby   62.66%
Ben Ferris                    Tufts   62.55%
Matt Mathias      Bowdoin   62.36%
Scott Anderson    Tufts   61.61%
Peter Kaasila      Amherst   61.56%
Peter Kazickas      Hamilton   61.49%
James Klemm       Williams   60.24%
Nate Robertson   Williams   59.95%
Peter Lynch            Midd   59.74%

[Panthernation]

And top 20 true shooting %s in the league. (min 40 shots) The Panthernation guys are gonna like this one. For reference, in the NBA, 53% is about average. The median for qualifying players in the NESCAC was just under 55%.

One argument that the Panthernation guys made on their podcast (nice job by the way, I enjoyed that) was that Toomey often jacks up shots three-feet behind the baseline instead of looking for teammates. The data suggests that his shots are still the best on the team. Also, the guy was second in the league in assists.

Also, there was a lot of talk on there about Toomey's rough performance in the NESCAC finals and regular season matchup against Midd. I'm just going to throw it out there that I remember some posts about how it's bad analysis to emphasize certain games over others.

Lefrakenstein,

Fair point, as we did note Toomey's terrible stretch to end the season on our radio show. I don't want to restart a number of different arguments, but what we were saying wast that it was unfair to selectively choose which "big games" games you're drawing from. When we argued against using this logic, we noted that it destroyed Toomey's case for Player of the Year. We succumbed to using it as one reason for which we didn't like the Toomey pick, and I think it's fair that you call us out for the contradiction. However (and this is splitting hairs, but relevant nonetheless) we felt it unfair to make the determination between Workman and Thompson using that as one of the main reasons for the selection. While we did employ that reason on our show, if we had to make an argument for why Toomey was the wrong choice for PoY, his big game performances wouldn't be part of our argument.

[Panthernation]

We've written our preview for the Curry-Middlebury game which tips off in just over an hour. If you want to listen to our broadcast, here's the link: http://boombox.middlebury.edu:8000/WRMCSports.m3u

Curry College

Middlebury opens the NCAA Tournament this evening at home against Curry College. Curry went 21-7 during the season, and 15-3 in the Commonwealth Coast Conference (CCC). While the CCC isn't the most difficult conference to win, Curry proved over the course of the season that it could play with some of the best teams in the Northeast region. Just a year removed from a 29-point beatdown received at the hand of Middlebury, the Colonels demonstrated that they could play with the upper echelon of teams in the NESCAC and the NEWMAC. Curry lost 4 of its first 7 games of the season, but the losses came against Amherst (117-96), WPI (83-76), MIT (71-63) and Williams (97-93). The followed four tough losses with an 81-78 win over Wesleyan at home. As you can tell, Curry can score the basketball. The Colonels averaged 81.5 points per game on a .482/.402/.715 (FG/3PT/FT) line for the season. Bad offensive teams that play at a fast pace often average a lot of points. What that line tells you, however, is that isn't the case for Curry. The Colonels offensive numbers compare favorably to Middlebury's offensive totals: 79.6 points per game on .496/.390/.739 shooting stats. And while Middlebury played better competition over the course of the season, Curry demonstrated that they can be just as explosive offensively against the top competition Middlebury played against.

What a difference a year makes

These two teams played as recently as December of 2011. Middlebury won that game 83-54. Unfortunately, that tells us very little about today's game. Then, Curry was 2-6 and headed for an 11-15 season, 9-9 in CCC play. Only 2 of Curry's current top-6 rotation players played real minutes in the game, and Middlebury received 22 points from Ryan Sharry on 8-11 shooting from the floor.

Since then, Curry has evolved into a dangerous offensive team, led by three talented scorers. Sedale Jones — recently named the CCC Player of the Year — Lambros Papalambros (a 1st Team All-CCC selection) and AJ Stephens (second team) combine to score 55 of the team's 81.5 points per game. In three games against NESCAC teams this year, Jones is averaging 32.7 points per game on .561/.500/.793 shooting splits. He is a Division I talent and appears to play his best game against the best competition.

Perhaps even more intriguing than Jones is Lambros Papalambros. In 28 games this season Papalambros is averaging 16 points per game, 4.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists. At 6'4" he's taller than your average Division III point guard, and a better shooter too. The Massachusetts native shoots 52.6% from the floor and 42.3% from beyond the arc.

Rounding out the top three is AJ Stephens, a 6'5, 255-pound bruiser, who has a similar build (though admittedly wider) to Middlebury's 6'6", 215-pound Peter Lynch. At first glance Stephens looks like a (considerably) more skilled version of Weselyan's Glen Thomas. Stephens averaged 16.9 points per game and 9.9 rebounds while shooting 54% from the field.

Does Curry have the right ingredients to pull off an upset?

In last year's upset loss to Scranton, Middlebury had difficulty guarding the Royals' bigger guards who went into the post against the Panthers' smaller trio of Thompson, Wolfin and Kizel. The Colonels run a similar three guard set with Jones, Papalambros and Carlos Ribeiro. While Ribeiro is just 5'10" the other two are both 6'4" and shoot a high percentage from the floor. Last week Williams took advantage of Taylor Epley's height advantage over Nolan Thompson and used their 6'4" forward to post up Middlebury's Defensive Player of the Year, with far more success than when the Ephs attempted to run Epley off screens and play a primarily perimeter game in the first meeting. Curry has the size on the perimeter to take Middlebury out of its defensive comfort zone. The Colonels can play with the top tier of teams in the country, but sticking with teams and beating teams are two very different things. If Curry beats Middlebury ti will be the result of making small adjustments (like going into the post more) and getting help from a poor Middlebury shooting night.

How the upset happens

Offensive discipline: As already noted, Curry will have to play disciplined basketball to beat Middlebury. Sedale Jones will need to have an efficient shooting night, which will be difficult with Nolan Thompson guarding him (more on this in a minute). Jones will need to facilitate, and limit his turnovers. Jones has done a good job getting his teammates looks this year (3 assists per game) but has tuned the ball over 95 times this season (3.4 per game). With Thompson guarding him, a 30-point outburst from Jones is unlikely. But if he can make the most of his limited looks and find teammates for better looks, he will do more for his team's win probability than if he enters this game looking to replicate what he did against Amherst and Williams (75 combined points). It will be very interesting to see what his mentality is early in the game, whether he's looking to find his own shot against the best perimeter defender in the country or if he tries to find his teammates.

Foul trouble: This concerns both teams. For Middlebury, keeping Lynch on the floor and out of foul trouble will be vital. The Panthers' leading scorer averages just 24 minutes per game because he has been forced to sit for long periods of time due to foul issues. Staying out of foul trouble is a much bigger concern for Curry, however. The Colonels' rotation only goes 7 deep as two of their senior contributors off the bench, 6'7" center Ted Amendola and 5'11" guard Eric Gugliemello haven't played in over a month. Jones, Papalambros and Stephens will have to be disciplined on both ends of the floor, as Middlebury does a great job drawing charges defensively and will look to enter the ball inside to Lynch and big Jack Roberts early and often.

Middlebury's past shooting woes: Over the last four years Middlebury has lost 13 total games. In those 13 losses, Jake Wolfin and Nolan Thompson have combined to shoot 33% (84-252) from the floor and 28% (38-135) from beyond the arc. This isn't to assess blame — or anything close to it — for those losses, but to suggest that when the Panthers miss open shots — and Wolfin and Thompson are most often the recipients of open looks — they struggle to win games. In those losses, Wolfin shot better than 50% or better from the floor once and Thompson twice, without any overlap. Given that only 4 of the 13 losses (and none of the past 9) were decided before the final minute of regulation, missing open looks for Middlebury has proved incredibly costly.

Why the upset won't happen

The Thompson Effect: The Middlebury seniors have only lost three times at home in their careers, and have never been ousted in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. And while Curry provides challenges for the Panthers, they share many of the same qualities (one dominant perimeter player, offensive-minded, poor depth) with teams that have struggled immensely against Middlebury. Thompson plays a huge role in this, as his ability to shut down dominant perimeter scorers can stall an entire offense if the offensive system is built primarily around that player, or two or three guys. In last year's second round game against Albertus Magnus, Nolan limited Darius Watson (a guy's whose stats this year look eerily similar to Sedale Jones's) to 11 points on 5-16 shooting, though most of those came in garbage time once the game was out of hand (Watson had 0 at half-time and had attempted just 3 shots). The year before that, in the opening round of the tournament, Nolan held Western Connecticut State's DaQuan Brooks (he of the 45-point second half) to 11 points of 5-13 shooting in another Middlebury blowout.

Curry's defensive struggles: Peter Kaasila and Michael Mayer combined to score 48 points on 17 of 24 shooting from the floor. Curry's center Ted Amendola played in both of those games, but has not played since January 31st. Lynch scored 13 points on perfect 6-6 shooting in the game between these teams last year while Sharry finished 8-11 (as noted above). Given the success of the Kaasila and Mayer, Lynch should be able to take advantage of space to operate, much like he did against Williams last weekend, when he scored 23 points and pulled down 12 rebounds while shooting 10-17 from the floor.

Middlebury's track record: Over the past four years the Panthers are 55-0 against everyone in the NESCAC not named Williams or Amherst. They have routinely dominated lesser competition, and though Curry has the talent to be a middle-to-upper-tier NESCAC team, it is exactly that kind of team that the Panthers have owned, particularly at home.

Prediction: Middlebury 85 – Curry 70

[amh63]

Pathernation........once again you persons do not disappoint in breath or depth.   IMHO, nice job.   Will be watching elsewhere.  Go Panthers!

[Old Guy]

Vandy74....you actually saw Old Guy play! amh63

Vandy did indeed see Old Guy play - trust he will say I was a good teammate. When I was a player at Midd, I had a friend whose brother played at Trinity and sent along their scouting report of the Middlebury team. It went into the skills and tendencies, etc. of the players on our team. Next to my name was the notation, "Also plays." Nothing else. Pretty apt summary.

My kids gave me a t-shirt that read, "the older I get, the better I was." That's true, too. "If only we had the 3-point line . . . " and so on. As my sainted mother used to say, "if ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry christmas."

I'm off to prepare with Midd pals for tonight's game. I wish I had Panther Nation's confidence. I think Curry is scary.

[Vandy74]

Vandy74....you actually saw Old Guy play! amh63

Vandy did indeed see Old Guy play - trust he will say I was a good teammate. When I was a player at Midd, I had a friend whose brother played at Trinity and sent along their scouting report of the Middlebury team. It went into the skills and tendencies, etc. of the players on our team. Next to my name was the notation, "Also plays." Nothing else. Pretty apt summary.

My kids gave me a t-shirt that read, "the older I get, the better I was." That's true, too. "If only we had the 3-point line . . . " and so on. As my sainted mother used to say, "if ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry christmas."

I'm off to prepare with Midd pals for tonight's game. I wish I had Panther Nation's confidence. I think Curry is scary.

Old Guy,

I'm on my way out the door.  Trust I'll see you there.  Like you, I don't assume Curry is incapable of ruining our evening.  I plan to have a beer with Middhoops afterward.  Go Panthers!

[lefrakenstein]

Good luck to Williams and Midd tonight! NESCAC solidarity