MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Statistical analysis without actually relying on your eyes is an incomplete as the converse.  Some things Toomey does can't be captured by stats.  For example his rare ability to pull up on the run and unleash a deep three at any time makes a defense have to constantly account for him in transition.  Some guys just have an uncanny hoops sense.  Toomey, Andrew Olson, and Mike Crotty are examples.  Crotty and Olson did not always dominate statistically but they dominated the flow of action.  Toomey is the same way.  Stats are a valuable tool but should not be considered the end all and be all.

[amh63]

Thanks LeFrak.....will try to explain my take and maybe be more "gracious", if I can, and less "grumpy" in my old age.
First, after Titan Q's post, I went back to the expensive Tournament program to see who was who.  I admit that I do not remember names of players that I have seen only once....rather the numbers of their uniforms....unless they have outstanding physical features and or talents.  Whatever.
Anyway, I admit in the action of the game,  mistaken at times the number 34 with 24, therefore Raridon with Kmiec.  Both are relative slim in built and Raridon is listed at 6'6" and Kmiec is at 6'4".  I will use the excuse that program heights are not always accurate.  Now I remember that Kmiec was often on Aaron.  I remarked that he was a "flopper" defender...though he fell only once, I believe.  Maybe the reason number 24 was off in his shooting....was that he had tired legs....guarding Toomey.
Background.....The Amherst vs NCC game was a defensive battle as it turned out.  The Amherst fans agree that it was an ugly game, a physical game.  D3Hoops called it a "Big Ten" type of game.  Sticking to Div 3 rather than Div 1....let us call it the CCIW type of game.  I know,  should not tempt the posters of the midwest/west to comment here the "CAC" board.  The Amherst fans was gracious in the glow of the win and dropped talk of some strange turns in the game that were often due to the refs.  I minimize my complaints about the refs.  I thought Coach Hixon was gracious in his interview with Dave M. after the game.....etc., etc.
Arrive home,,,,read the posts on the board.  Struck by Panthernation's post that dealt heavily on the NCC game with Amherst.  Believe in freedom of the press/speech, etc. 
My take of the post......Kmiec had a great day against the Panthers and a bad day against Amherst and was the difference that Middlebury lost and Amherst won.  Is that fair.  Goes 10-15 in one game, even though he is a starter that scores in double figures and goes not even close to his average in another game but is kept in the game because of his defensive skills.  Averaging the shooting and gosh, we have his average.
Bear with me a little more here.  No credit is given to any game plan by Amherst, or any defensive scheme/team defense.  I admit, it is hard to game plan for an ugly/physical game.  Still.... no comments about the Panthers defensive scheme....allowing a player to be open for 31.
A little angry with the first half of the  post.  The second half of the post put me over the top....that is expression of choice on this board, is it not?
Panthernation proceeds to show their BB analyses and puts down how Amherst should run their offense and who is the better point guard....giving "stats" to trash one player in the process of supporting their candidate...so to speak.
My basic question to Panthernation.....why the post?  Does that explain a little of my perceived hostility?  Be gracious.  Amherst won a tough game.
Do not use our win to explain your team's lost.  Give some credit to Amherst's coaches. 
Finally....lets move on.  Spring sports are at hand.  Let us proceed to Atlanta!

[frank uible]

Crotty tended to consistently dominate in the statistic of assists/turnovers. Isn't that statistic the most important one for a point guard - a position which I believe is conceded to be generally the most valuable in modern college basketball?

[lefrakenstein]

Crotty tended to consistently dominate in the statistic of assists/turnovers. Isn't that statistic the most important one for a point guard - a position which I believe is conceded to be generally the most valuable in modern college basketball?

Toomey's a/to ratio is 2.4, good for 4th in the NESCAC behind the Bowdoin, Colby and Tufts pgs, none of whom are also big scorers.

UPDATE: Toomey's a/to ratio is 20th in the entire country. (although the Colby pg isn't listed ahead of him... might need some minimum # of assists to qualify)

He's tied for 27th in the country in terms of a/g.

[amh63]

Frank U......your posts continue to surprise me.  Your latest is most astute.   

[Bucket]

Bucket.....thanks for the clarification on the particulars.  So no one is given credit for shutting down a shooter that averages around 11 points and is having a hot streak.....other than he is having a good day and then a bad day.  What is your take on that?  that analysis.   Think on that a bit please.

I watched both games. Pretty simple analysis: Kmiec had the same looks in the Amherst game as he did in the Midd game. Both teams played good defense on him. He took the same shots in both games, both games with a hand in his face. Middlebury certainly did not "allow him open for 31 points." Did you watch the game?

He knocked down tough shots against Midd; he couldn't hit anything against Amherst. He's the definition of a streaky shooter, which is what any of these NCC fans would tell you he is.

Is it that hard to understand?

[grabtherim]

Bucket.....thanks for the clarification on the particulars.  So no one is given credit for shutting down a shooter that averages around 11 points and is having a hot streak.....other than he is having a good day and then a bad day.  What is your take on that?  that analysis.   Think on that a bit please.

I watched both games. Pretty simple analysis: Kmiec had the same looks in the Amherst game as he did in the Midd game. Both teams played good defense on him. He took the same shots in both games, both games with a hand in his face. Middlebury certainly did not "allow him open for 31 points." Did you watch the game?

He knocked down tough shots against Midd; he couldn't hit anything against Amherst. He's the definition of a streaky shooter, which is what any of these NCC fans would tell you he is.

Is it that hard to understand?

Agree with your take Bucket.  Take his shooting together with the shots Midd missed which they have been making all year, and the better team that day won.  Would I have felt better if #24 shot as well versus Amherst as he did against Midd.  In all honesty, to a degree yes.  Still, I am happy a NESCAC team has a shot in Atlanta. 

I am not a stat guy, and go with the eye test versus the numbers more so than the majority who post here.  To me, this season, Workman and the mid-range game of Williamson have been the most important parts of Amherst's success.  I see Kalema as much improved as well. 

Regarding Toomey, he is a big play guy often making a big trey after creating space for himself off a crossover or in fake.  Very impressive indeed.  That being said, not sure if it's just me, but two parts of his game give me pause, and I will never know how his teammates feel about either.  Maybe I am seeing something they don't.  First, at least once a game he seems to be hurt to the point that an ambulance is in order.  After 30 seconds of shaking it off or a teammate pulling him up, he is back at 100% as though ET just touched him like he did the dead plant in the movie.  Is he tough or a bit of a drama queen?  My honest take is more the latter than the former.  Finally, might he be a bit too concerned with what he gets and his contributions, and sulk a bit when he is not the focal point?  He barely cracked a smile and almost had to pushed into the post game NESCAC Tournament celebration after the Williams game.  Sorry if you Amherst guys see this as picky, and I fully expect you to jump down my throat. 

To be clear, he is a superior talent who will win games all by himself for you.  That said, over a long season or in a game at the schoolyard where we pick sides and go shirts and skins, Workman would be my choice over him.  The good news for Amherst is you have them both.  Walzy will chime in, but Amherst should be a 12-15 point choice over Mary Queen of Scots or whatever they are called.       

[amh63]

Bucket.....have to admit I wasn't focus on #24.   Was watching your offensive game more...wondering when Wolfin, Kizel, and Thompson would start hitting shots like their efforts in the Ithaca game.  Normally do not consider them to be streaky shooters...do you?   Yes, I can play your game.
Looked at Jensen and Lynch also and hoped they would score inside more....against Gamble that doesn't have a....what is that other poster state?...oh yes...vertical defense game or something like that.   Posted earlier that 24 and 34 looked alike to me....and one is NCC's top scorer.
Yes, will admit I was not as focused on the game as you would...it was the last game of three I watched.
Yes, I understand that you are a Panther supporter and you will defend your cubs.   How about taking a little less Middlebury centric world view when viewing an Amherst game that you may not have "a dog" in.  Let us Amherst fans savor our win for a few days. 
Do not expect any Midd. poster would like a poster to start critiquing your win over Ithaca by questioning coaching moves or even worst. after your loss to NCC.   Bad form as some will say.   
Let us move on, please on this matter. 

[frank uible]

63: You too have joined my momma's Xmas card list. Unless of course you are insincere - in which case you are on her excrement list.

[Panthernation]

Bucket.....have to admit I wasn't focus on #24.   Was watching your offensive game more...wondering when Wolfin, Kizel, and Thompson would start hitting shots like their efforts in the Ithaca game.  Normally do not consider them to be streaky shooters...do you?   Yes, I can play your game.
Looked at Jensen and Lynch also and hoped they would score inside more....against Gamble that doesn't have a....what is that other poster state?...oh yes...vertical defense game or something like that.   Posted earlier that 24 and 34 looked alike to me....and one is NCC's top scorer.
Yes, will admit I was not as focused on the game as you would...it was the last game of three I watched.
Yes, I understand that you are a Panther supporter and you will defend your cubs.   How about taking a little less Middlebury centric world view when viewing an Amherst game that you may not have "a dog" in.  Let us Amherst fans savor our win for a few days. 
Do not expect any Midd. poster would like a poster to start critiquing your win over Ithaca by questioning coaching moves or even worst. after your loss to NCC.   Bad form as some will say.   
Let us move on, please on this matter.

Amh63 we can move on as you wish, although I think of you go back and read our overall discussion of Amherst you'll find that we're quite complimentary of the Lord Jeffs on the whole.

[lefrakenstein]

Attempted scouting of UMHB:

Overall team impressions-
This is a team that wins with defense. Unlike a lot of the top NESCAC teams, they're not going to shoot you out of the gym from long range (31% from three – although they've been in the mid 30s for the tourney). They're also a poor free throw shooting team (68%). On offense, they are very balanced with all five starters at or near double figures. It seems like, similar to Amherst, they're a team with a number of guys who could have a huge game on any given night. They also play extremely strong defense and rebound very well. They hold their opponents to under 40% shooting from the field. Only St. Thomas has managed to have a strong shooting day against them so far in the tournament, but the Tommies were undone by giving up turnovers (17) and offensive rebounds (17). Although they're a short team, with none of their starters over 6'5, the Cru consistently out-rebound their opponents, often by wide margins. I think it is very likely that Amherst will out-shoot the Cru in Atlanta. The keys are going to be a) not turning the ball over, and b) not allowing them to own the offensive boards.


#3 Thomas Orr (6'5 G/F) –  Averages 14.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg. Leads the team in scoring. 1st team all conference. Dropped 26 on St. Mary's in the Sectional finals. Over half of his shots are three-pointers, but he doesn't shoot them at a particularly high rate (31%). Stong FT shooter at 84%.

#21 James Allen (6'0 PG) – Averages 13.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 3.5 apg. Seems to be the guy who makes the Cru offense go. Another guy who takes a fair amount of threes (over a third of his attempts), but shoots them at a very low rate (28%). Looks to be a very active rebounder for a pg.

#22 Kitrick Bell (6'4 F) – Averages 12.3 ppg and 10.1 rpg. First team all conference. Obviously the thing that jumps out is the double digit rebounds per game. Incredible for a guy that's just 6'4. The Jeffs will have to make sure to keep him off the boards. Shoots 57% from the floor, the highest percentage on the team. Pretty much doesn't shoot threes. Only a 57% free throw shooter.

#33 Cory Meals (6'5 G/F) –  Averages 9.1 ppg and 4.1 rpg. He is the Cru's top outside shooting threat, hitting 36% on the year, but he shoots under 40% on the whole. Has been hot from behind the arc during the tourney (10-19).

#11 Brian Todd (6'4 G/F) – Averages 10.8 ppg and 5.0 rpg. Conference DPOY last season. Leads the team in steals. Didn't start until midway through the season. Not an outside threat, but shoots over 50% from the field (52%). Very poor FT shooter (52%).  After going for 28 in the opening game of the tournament, hasn't scored in double figures again.

#4 Layton Zinsmeister (5'11 G) – Averages 3.8 ppg, 2.5 apg and 2.2 rpg. A backup ball-handler, the freshman looked really composed in scoring 14 points against St. Thomas. Looks like he usually chips in around 20 mpg and looks to distribute before scoring himself.

#40 Russell Green (6'7 C) – Averages 3.3 ppg and 2.1 rpg. The biggest guy the Cru will put on the court, but he's only likely to see about 10 mpg. Pretty good FT shooter for a big guy (71%).

#5 Antoine Chaney (5'9 PG) – Averages 6.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.2 apg. Looks their shooter off the bench. Over half his shots are threes and he shoots them at a 37% clip. Also not the guy you want at the line, as he's shooting 84%. Majoring in exercise. Had to throw that in there.

[amh63]

LeFrak......Thanks....but..it is two weeks before the game.  Should try to get a classmate to get yourself a "free" ticket to the Div 1 games.  Coach Hixon mentioned that the NCAA package included 100 tickets available.....but the coaches and team players have to read/understand a telephone book size book of dos and don'ts, etc......just kidding here
Really, you are worrying me with your report...on a team of Texans that call themselves "CRU?"  Like your side comments.  Like the 6'4" top rebounder that surprises you with his rebound average.  Is that a put down on Allen Williamson who is listed as the same height and was the top rebounder this weekend for Amherst?  Others..a good rebounder for a pg; a good foul shooter for a big guy.  Not winning many friends on the Amherst team with those comments.
Is #4, one of the freshmen that was put in because of tram foul trouble?  Like his full head of curly hair and his game.  Sort of played point guard but seems to prefer to set up on the side rather than at the top of the key.  Very quick to the basket and surprised me and others with his two outside shots.  He has the same german name as my host up at Amherst for Homecoming games.....will therefore remember his name.
You refer the team as being short....with the tallest starter being 6'5".  You did not mention their weight.  Do not worry....having seen them play, they are more like Texas Jackrabbits...athletic players with "hops".  Remember the Cabrini Aaron?  the listed 6'1" player who was taller and because of his size and talent was both the top team scorer and rebounders.
Enough.  Maybe we can get a video highlight for the board of their win over the deeper, bigger, etc. Tommies....the #l ranked team.  An unranked team that won over all the ranked teams they met on the road to Atlanta.
I'm grateful for the info...really I am.

[lefrakenstein]

Really, you are worrying me with your report...on a team of Texans that call themselves "CRU?"  Like your side comments.  Like the 6'4" top rebounder that surprises you with his rebound average.  Is that a put down on Allen Williamson who is listed as the same height and was the top rebounder this weekend for Amherst? 

Definitely not a put down to Williamson. But he only did it for two games. I wonder who the last Jeff to average double digit rebounds was. Certainly hasn't come close to happening in a long time.

Is #4, one of the freshmen that was put in because of tram foul trouble?  Like his full head of curly hair and his game.  Sort of played point guard but seems to prefer to set up on the side rather than at the top of the key.  Very quick to the basket and surprised me and others with his two outside shots.  He has the same german name as my host up at Amherst for Homecoming games.....will therefore remember his name.

Yup, that's the one

You refer the team as being short....with the tallest starter being 6'5".  You did not mention their weight.  Do not worry....having seen them play, they are more like Texas Jackrabbits...athletic players with "hops".  Remember the Cabrini Aaron?  the listed 6'1" player who was taller and because of his size and talent was both the top team scorer and rebounders.
Enough.  Maybe we can get a video highlight for the board of their win over the deeper, bigger, etc. Tommies....the #l ranked team.  An unranked team that won over all the ranked teams they met on the road to Atlanta.
I'm grateful for the info...really I am.

Not trying to be cocky. They're just are shorter than I would have expected. I did mention that they out-rebound pretty much everyone they play right? If I told you that about a team you hadn't seen, wouldn't you expect them to be taller?

[toad22]

I would describe the UMHB team, at least in the St. Thomas game, as extremely energetic.

[Old Guy]

Back on the board, probably briefly. Had to take a break after the Midd-NCC game. I'm probably not analytical enough, but I just conclude Midd wouldn't win many games against quality opponents shooting the way they did against North Central. They shot very well against Cortland and Ithaca.

Also not sure I can do the all-Amherst-all-the-time conversation. I know, I know, they're still playing and no one else is and this is a NESCAC board. I think if PantherNation didn't exist, Amherst posters would have to invent them. The Jeffs are clearly a great team and I fully expect them to be national champs. Have Williamson and Kalema really "grown" enormously this year, or have they just been played the minutes their talents deserve? They sure played well against Middlebury before this year. 

It would be repetitive to post the numbers for the last four years for the Midd seniors - extraordinary. What a great ride. I have been watching basketball for a long time at Midd, through many lean years. This has been fun, and the future is bright. I'm grateful. I have the "Middlebury-Ithaca NCAA Tournament Basketball SOLD OUT" sign on the door to my office.

I'll be in Atlanta in a week and a half for all that hoopla. I'm off to Tucson tomorrow to watch some Midd baseball. Williams-Middlebury at the end of the week. Let's play three!