MBB: NESCAC

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It's been a little quite on the board recently so let me pose an open question:

What are Aaron Toomey's chances of repeating as D3 POY? 

He's obviously still the same great player (if not better with more experience) but will he have the right supporting cast around him to make another run?

You could argue he's got a better chance this year - he'll have to score more often and likely his numbers will be better.

Usually the POY gets that spot because there's just not a real national buzz for anyone until they perform in the latter stages of the tournament.  When you've got a returning player who most of the country knows, they get on the list early and get seen.  The only problem would be if he struggles early and loses that attention or if they miss the national tournament altogether.

[toad22]

Toomey could very well win POY again, but only if Amherst wins deep into the national championship. There are too many other really fine players out there. Awards usually go to winners.

[amh63]

My take...so early in the year.
First, it was said by others that Aaron made an adjustment between his soph and junior year...letting others take the scoring load and not trying to win games all by himself.  Whatever the reasons, the teams success was primarily driven by the leadership of the senior class...and play..of Willy, Allen and Big Pete.  The team's success led to POY for Aaron. 
Last season, Aaron sometimes took over the scoring and changed the flow of games like against RIC. His foul shooting prowess changed games as he often took over late in games.  For a slight player, he rebounded well and of course played great defense.  Still, his POY chances will go with the team's sucess.  This season, Aaron will be looked to for his Leadership more than any thing else.  He saw how last year's seniors leadership was critical for the run to the title.  This year, IMHO, Aaron needs to make this his team through the leadership of the seniors.  He doesn't need to carry the team with his scoring.  He needs to lead HIS team.  If he succeeds,  Amherst will win and any post season awards should follow.

[old_hooper]

Amh63, you are spot on in your assessment.  If you look at the teams that got to the finals it was always about leadership coming from experienced players/seniors with complete teams.  Amherst won the championship last year in large part because Allen Williamson elevated his game to whole different level.  Toomey, workman and Big Pete were all proven players.  Every team knew they had to deal with these three if they had a chance to win.  When AW stepped up his game it made everyone else better and Amherst difficult to deal with.

With Toomey, Kalema and Green this is where more than half the offense will probably come from next year.  If Toomey is not the leading scorer that will probably be a good thing for the team.  That means that he is contributing in other ways and his teammates are playing at a higher level. 

I would not be surprised to see Green be the leading scorer next year.  We all know he loves to shoot and the coaching staff will develope that into better decison making.  The emergence and confidence Coach Hixon had in Green and Pollack last year will pay big dividends in next 3 years.

With Kalema seeing major minutes next year and his ability to play the point as well and an experienced Killian, it will be interesting to watch the LJ backcourt next year.  This will allow Toomey to do many things on offense.  He is already a good passer and he is great at drawing the foul.  All can shoot the three and one would  expect to see alot of penetrate and kick it out and if they are not open you have Green.  Toomey needs to average about 13 PPG during the regular season to become the leading scorer at Amherst and you know he wants that.

Williams, Tufts, Middlebury and even Bowdoin will have something to say about it however. Three of these teams should be better than they were last year. Amherst loses a lot but the cupboard is far from bare.  They have players with decent size and it comes down to the 3 players that will earn time in the rotation and how they contribute in their rolls. There are 6 potential guys not including frosh that will be competing for consistent play time.

There are several very good teams Nationally next year and getting to the big dance will be earned.  If Toomey can lead the team back to the finals he would have a great chance at POY again.

[maineman]

Williams, Tufts, Middlebury and even Bowdoin will have something to say about it however. Three of these teams should be better than they were last year.

Which one do you think won't be as good?

[P'bearfan]

With Kalema seeing major minutes next year and his ability to play the point as well and an experienced Killian, it will be interesting to watch the LJ backcourt next year.

I agree that Amherst's backcourt could be very good.  What I'm interested in seeing is how their style of play changes with the loss of Kaasila in the front court.  I only saw Amherst play once - the NC game - but what struck me is how much less physical they are without him.  I think Pollack is a talented player but not very physical.  I'm sure Amherst will be good but just very different next year. 

[P'bearfan]

Williams, Tufts, Middlebury and even Bowdoin will have something to say about it however. Three of these teams should be better than they were last year.



Which one do you think won't be as good?

From my perspective, Bowdoin could be a dangerous team next year if everyone stays healthy and out of foul trouble.  Hurley, Pieri and Swords (who has been steadily improving) give them a talented core.  And while Bowdoin is only bringing in 3 freshman, they're the 3 they needed to give a little more depth at the right spots.  Should be af fun season for the P'Bears.

[middhoops]

Replacing a 6-9, 260 solid  and truly unselfish post player hurts.  Workman and Williamson were extraordinary athletes.  The LJs will be a very good, but very different team this season.
Williams lost a few, gained a few.  Robinson should make an immediate impact.  Still no one to stop Mayer.
Middlebury lost more leadership than athletes to graduation. They will be missed for sure, but there is significant talent to replace them.
Tufts is going to continue to improve.  Maybe they can get past just knocking on the door this year.

[amh63]

Still soo...early in the year, but the recent posts have been such that I will make some more comments.
We all can agree that Amherst's front court style of play will change....with the lost of the seniors and the "bulk of "big Pete", in particular.  Kaasila did step up his play last year.
One must remember that FY Pollack was put in early as a backup to Pete, in part, because the other bigs either had injuries or lacked the bulk.  Coach Hixon in a wrap up comment, stated that Ben was put in to give Pete rest and in the title run provided valuable scoring and defense.
Ben Pollack, a skilled strong player, developed quickly and earned more time as the season went on.  If one reviews the film of the post-season games, there was an additional benefit of having Conner Green and Ben Pollack playing together. They work very well together down low.  Green for all his outside prowess is a strong player down low....see the title game video.  Anyway, Green and Pollack tend to look for each other.  When Ben gets the ball down low and has his defender pinned, he often picks up another defender...thus allowing an unguarded Green to slash to the basket, get a pass from Pollack, and scores..sometimes getting fouled in the process.
I too expect Amherst's offensive play to be different...as new front court players are inserted.  Don't be surprised to see who will be at small forward. Both Killian and Green are taller than listed and are quite athletic, can score inside and out and are fine rebounders.  I will not be surprised to see Pollack share the power forward position with Buckner or Davis at times.   Sanderson may start at center.  He will be both bigger and taller and bring his quickness.  Sanderson is more advanced offensively than Kaasila at his age.
This is not considering at least two or three talented FY front court players...one that has a shot blocking reputation. 
FY players need to get adjusted to the college game and learn to play Amherst team defense. As stated before, if you do not want to play defense, you will not get floor time at Amherst.

[madzillagd]

In terms of production - here's a quick look at what graduated for the big 3.

Amherst - 3 Starters:  84.8 minutes per game, 36.7 ppg, 18.9 rbg, 6.2 apg
No bench players graduated

Midd - 3 starters:  89.7 minutes per game, 36.4 ppg, 14.1 rbg, 7.3 apg
No bench players graduated (I didn't include Alvarez since he didn't really play)

Williams - 2 starters:  62.9 minutes per game, 20.5 ppg, 7.5 rbg, 6.2 apg
2 bench players:  18.3 minutes per game, 5.8 ppg, 2.8 rbg, .9 apg
Total Williams graduated:  81.2 mpg, 26.3 ppg, 10.3 rbg, 7.1 apg

In terms of production, Amherst and Midd are pretty close to each other in what they lost.  Both lost a combination of guards/wings and a key big; whereas Williams lost their starting backcourt.  Neither the LJs nor Midd had any bench players that graduated  and although Williams loses 2, they didn't have much of a statistical impact at all and were more hustle players. 

You can look at this a couple different ways I think, Midd and Amherst should have an early advantage because both have veteran guards that will be leading the transformation as they find their new identity.  On the flip side of that, they lost a lot of scoring.  Kalema and Green will probably take up the bulk of that scoring for Amherst.  Midd on the other had has a bigger question mark because after Merryman there isn't another guy off that bench that has proven themselves as a scorer.  Jensen possibly but not sure he's going to give you much more than what he's given you playing the bulk of his minutes versus starters and not bench players.  I know many think Sinnickson is going to be big this year but just like Rooke-Ley for Williams, you don't really know what you will get after a year off. 

Williams has far less to replace in terms of production.  Even though their guards will be less experienced, I don't think you even need them to combine for much more than 15 ppg given the fact that the returning frontcourt of Mayer, Epley and Wohl might increase their production.  Also, I'd expect Williams to have a much deeper team this year in terms of production than last year, also taking some pressure off the new backcourt.  Be interesting to see what combination Maker throws out there and as mentioned above, what Rooke-Ley brings to the table after being out a year. 

[amh63]

Madz....enjoyed your post!   Noticed that there are no comments on any other teams that could challenge for the title....Tufts or Bowdoin?
Any thoughts?

[nescac1]

Regarding Toomey repeating as player of the year, the biggest obstacle, in addition to voter fatigue, may be splitting votes with other NESCAC guys.  Michael Mayer has improved each year so far, and if he improves his game, again, even a bit in this off-season, he will be in the discussion for sure (and I expect he'll be a first team pre-season all-American, regardless of any improvement).  Taylor Epley isn't that far behind Mayer, and he ended the season very well, playing some big-time ball against very good defenders he had previously struggled with.  His confidence should be sky-high going into the season.  Kizell will be the lone big dog for Midd this year, and will likely have a very strong stat line as the primary scorer and facilitator for the Panthers.  All four of those guys should be all-Americans if they stay healthy. 

Outside of NESCAC, looking at the post-season all-American teams from the past year, the top contenders look to be Landon Gamble, whose statistical profile will be much-improved after a few of his star teammates graduated (but whose team likely won't be as strong as other CCIW teams appear to be improved), Kyle Schleigh, who is probably from too low-profile a team/conference, Chas Cross, whose individual excellence may be overshadowed by a few stronger WIAC teams, and Aaron Walton-Moss, who I'd say will be the odds-on favorite if he ever plays a full season of D-3 ball, given that he is probably the most talented guy in the country, has a very high profile, puts up insane stats, and plays for a team likely to make a deep tourney run.  If I was handicapping, I'd say (1) Walton-Moss, (2) Toomey, (3) Mayer, (4) Gamble. 

Interesting stuff madz, thanks for the analysis.  Amherst was the strongest of those three teams but also loses by far the most.  If anything the stats understate it, because Williamson saved his best ball for the biggest games and was Amherst's best player in the NCAA tourney, and Workman's all-around game, including his defense, was better than stats would indicate.  Hence, a veritable toss-up between those three teams heading into the season.  Agree that Rooke-Ley and Sinnickson could be the x-factors, as each of those guys is a starter-caliber guy added to the mix if healthy.  The same could be said for Ray Barry and Amherst, but it seems less likely that he'll be 100 percent.  Bowdoin loses a lot less than any of those teams, or Tufts for that matter, but the Polar Bears have a lot of ground to make up.  Swords turning into a major force for 25 mpg plus is needed for them to contend, and whether that will happen, no one knows at this point. 

[madzillagd]

Madz....enjoyed your post!   Noticed that there are no comments on any other teams that could challenge for the title....Tufts or Bowdoin?
Any thoughts?

I was focusing more on the teams that were losing the most experience.  I'll save my official prediction for later when the schedules come out but my teaser is this....I think Tufts finishes higher than Midd in league this year. 

[grabtherim]

I really enjoyed reading the numbers on what was lost by the Big 3 and thoughts on next season.  I agree that Amherst sans Williamson and Willie lose the most especially given how Williamson performed down the stretch and the intangibles of Willie's game.  I think it was Amh63 who also reminded us of Big Pete coming up big as his career was coming to its end.  He really saved his best for last.  Middlebury's loss in numbers is huge, but more importantly in big game pressure and experience which Lynch, Thompson and Wolfin had each of their four years at Midd.  None of this is meant to minimize the Ephs losses which are dramatic.  As always, who will step up, which freshman are the real deal, injuries and luck will tell the tale of this season.  I feel that Tufts should make a major move and get to the tournament this season.  To me anything less would be under achieving.  My guess is one or more of the Big 3 take a step back. Should be a great season with lots of suprises. Can't wait.         

[Old Guy]

Remember "Old Guy"? I don't he'll be posting much this year. He has left the building.

(Do you hate people who talk about themselves in the 3rd person as much as I do? Okay, I'll stop.) I am out of the country for the next ten months. In Africa! My wife has a Fulbright Fellowship for the year at the university in the Cameroonian capitol pf Yaounde. We have been here for four days now and I can say it doesn't remind me much of Middlebury where I have spent the last 35 years - or Maine where I was before that. It's about what I expected - times ten! We're not in Kansas anymore, Toto.

We're here with Young Guy (18) and Young Girl (16). Young Guy may come back in January for second semester entry at Middlebury. He's even more of a hoop aficionado than his old man. In a nice coincidence (hardly a coincidence) Panther Nation is renting our house.

We might be able to stream the webcasts here, though at 2:00 a.m.. I think if I'm going to make this year work for me I should probably not try to pretend I'm still in Vermont. I think I should do my best to get into the culture here (which involves learning french). May have to go cold turkey. I am fascinated by this year's talented Midd club and so curious to discover if St Amour can play at a high level at this level - and who will get the minutes that were lost to graduation and who will fill the extraordinary leadership roles that were likewise lost. So you see I could find myself spending a lot of time in my head back home.

Whatever happens, I won't post as much, because I have found it hard to evaluate play via the webcast, so much better, easier, to actually be there and note in person the intensity of the action. We will get DVDs of the games to watch but they will take two weeks to get here through the embassy. I hope to get back for a week or two in December or January (my older daughter is having a baby in December), so I may be able to catch a game or two, depending on the timing.

I intend to come back with a 7' African for Jeff Brown.

Carry on, mates. Go Panthers.

O.G.