MBB: NESCAC

[middhoops]

Under normal circumstances I'd feel like I'm setting a ball on a tee for PN to hit outta the park, here.  Maybe not, though.
While I still think Williams is stacked with high level talent and will win the league, comparing Middlebury and Amherst is, to me anyway, quite fascinating.
Both teams lost three key players to graduation.
Loyal as I am to the Panthers, I think replacing Kaasila, Workman and Williamson is far more difficult than losing Lynch, Wolfin and Thompson.
Kaasila was a huge space eater with a smart and unselfish game.  Workman and Willamson were agruably the two best pure athletes in the league (with a nod to Kalema).  The Amherst replacements will no doubt be surprisingly good.  They just can't be as good this year.
The three Midd seniors provided steady leadership.  Thompson was a stopper.  I love Nolan Thompson.  Jeff Brown always seems to have a stopper to take the place of the previous one, however.  Jake Wolfin was a dependable point guard.  Peter Lynch made himself into a good undersized post player through sheer desire.  These were fine players but none was remarkably athletic or large.
Both teams will be deep and talented.  My guess, for what it's worth, is that Middlebury can conceivably be better than last year by the time league play starts whereas Amherst probably can't.
Amherst was more talented to begin with, so it will be fun to see how it all balances out.

[amh63]

Was going to avoid strong opinions here until I get to watch early practice live at Amherst and see some rosters....focusing more on Fall sports
However the posts have been most interesting....so I will stir the pot a little.
It seems that I with most of the other posters have been waiting for Bowdoin to show its promise so to speak.  I have been waiting for Swords to become a factor ever since his FY.  Actually, looking back a little, the polar bears front court players have height but NEVER shown much otherwise.  My question to others is what do you know that makes you think Swords will step up this season.
With respect to Trinity and Conn,  I believe  I need to see their rosters to judge whether to take them seriously.  There has been so much player turnover at both schools in the past to predict their seasons.  A bit harsh here, I know.
Last comment...on the subject of Toomey and being the "best" player.  I am not talking about
" talent" or potential , etc.   I am talking here about demonstrated value to his team in winning games.  I will list his garnered honors last year in a temporal order.
First..Nescac POY ; Regional POY ; D3hoops first team All American (PoY went to Rochester guard); National Basketball Coaches selection as D3 POY.  In the D3 title game, having to sit awhile in the first half...Toomey ends up with 16 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists and the ball in his hands controlling the flow of the game towards the game's end.  Better judges than I have made their judgement.  I just point out the facts.

[grabtherim]

I think madzillagd makes some good points, and I see the top 3 and Tufts pretty much the way he does.  That said, I have seen Tufts lose games over the years that with some better help from a calm leader on the sidelines they might have won.  Similar to Wesleyan, their talent has been better than their results.  Some real talent coming in to Tufts and maturing players already should equal a better season for Sheldon's Jumbos.  If not, I think it's on him. 

My darkhorse to out perform madzillagd's prediction is Trinity.  Have heard about a few guys coming in, one guard and one big who could get minutes.  They were deep and often stayed in games before imploding late.  Cosgrove is also a wild card.  He knows what he's doing but seems to fight himself during both tense moments and regular ones in games.  They will have plenty of guys who can play.  If he can meld them and not always have his RPM needle in the red, I think they could pull off a surprise or two this season.   

[nescac1]

Regarding Toomey, I think we nearly debated his credentials to death last year.  Let's just say that he and Mayer will both be sure-fire all-Americans if they stay healthy, and how they perform on the court next year will decide it.  It is impressive that NESCAC has two players at that level returning.  And the top 15-20 guys in NESCAC has to be about as strong as it ever has been.  In fact, I'd put the projected first-team all-NESCAC squad (Mayer, Toomey, Joey Kizell, Taylor Epley, and Ben Ferris) up against any five players in the country, and I might even bet on the NESCAC all-stars.  The collective offensive efficiency of that group is staggering.  I expect at least three, and perhaps more, of those guys to end up on first or second team all-America squads. 

The next five, in my view, are all guys who could eventually be all-American players as well based on the promise they showed as underclassmen: Tom Palleschi, Connor Green, Daniel Wohl, Keegan Pieri, and Bryan Hurley.  Even a third-team projected all-NESCAC squad would be quite good, including, say, Mike Boornazian, Matt Hart, Matt Vadas, James Jensen, and David Kalema.  I would not be surprised if Steve Haladnya or even a frosh like Duncan Robinson or one of the Tufts big guys is in the conversation as well. 

I do think Amherst can't help but miss both Workman and Williamson.  They were the two best two-way forwards in NESCAC by the time the NESCAC tourney and the NCAA rolled around.  Both improved by leaps and bounds even from last year, in particular Williamson.  You just can't replace guys like that easily on either end of the floor, as no one in D-3 had two players who could match up with both of them.  One thing Hixon always seems to have in his pocket is athletic forwards with upside, who develop over time.  The advantage of bringing in five plus recruits almost every year ... you can afford to take a few risks on high-upside guys.  Williamson, although he showed flashes of brilliance throughout his career, was a guy who never really had to be heavily relied upon until very late in his senior year.  I imagine Hixon will once again find at least two guys from a long list of very tall athletic 3's and 4's with upside, like Mussachia, Sanderson, or frosh Magana and Nabatoff, none of whom anyone has really seen play, to at play those roles very capably.  Until then, Amherst will be heaviy reliant on its smaller perimeter-oriented guys, especially Toomey and Green and to lesser extent Kalema and Killian, to intiate the offense from the outside in. 

[jayhawk]

The most athletic or perhaps one of the top two athletic recruits for Amherst is David George.  With a solid prep year at a fine program and being 6'8" he may have the opportunity to contribute as a freshman. He has  a nice jumper and has the ability to potentially be a defensive presence.

[nescac1]

I agree that George seems like a potentially elite talent at this level -- I see him as a true 5 rather than a wing like Williamson and Workman.  Because of the tremendous depth and talent Amherst has a the 5 in George, Pollack and Buckner (among others), I don't think losing Kaasila will be nearly as big a deal as the other two seniors.  Those guys collectively won't come close to Kaasila as an offensive weapon at the 5, but they will almost certainly provide better defense and rebounding. 

[jayhawk]

agree
The most likely freshman candidates at Amherst who are athletic and play a 2 or 3 which would be Brady Holding and Christien Wright
But I am not sure how much playing time they will bet as freshmen. Williamson was uniquely athletic and transitioned from a high school center to a 2 guard. Willie Workman, now playing pro in Israel (Amherst webiste) was in his own uniquely talented, ambidextrous and athletic.

I agree that the best returning group is Williams - Mayer is very athletic in terms of running the floor. The other big 2 at Williams are extremely talented - Williams has good balance . Their offense is a clever one which Bellein amended and is somewhat similar to Princeton offense. Since so much it is based upon passing, cutting, and using picks I am not sure how much they will really miss their point guard (who I really liked)

[madzillagd]

From what I've seen of George, he reminds me a lot of Jason Thompson on the Sac Kings.  He's tall, long but doesn't jump out of the gym.  He'll throw some down and definitely will be a good shot blocker, but he isn't going to finish on top of people I don't think like Whittington (at least not yet).  But he appears to have great balance so he can rebound and get the ball back up to the rim and finish.  I definitely see him as a guy that can play this year and have some success off the bench for the LJs. 

Agree with the other Amherst comments out there - I think they definitely will miss Workman/Williamson the most but I still put them at the top because I think with a champion you have to knock them off the top to earn that spot. 

Amh63 - I've got Toomey discussion fatigue so I'll just say this - he was the only clear choice on the best team.  IF they are not the best team this year, I do not expect him to get similar considerations for his performance if it remains at a same level. 

[madzillagd]

I agree that the best returning group is Williams - Mayer is very athletic in terms of running the floor. The other big 2 at Williams are extremely talented - Williams has good balance . Their offense is a clever one which Bellein amended and is somewhat similar to Princeton offense. Since so much it is based upon passing, cutting, and using picks I am not sure how much they will really miss their point guard (who I really liked)

You touch on something here that I'm very curious about myself.  I don't have a five year history watching Maker's offense so maybe some folks that do could provide some input.  I'm very curious to whether not having Robertson at PG is going to make that much difference in terms of running the offense.  From the few clips I've seen, Wang often was bringing it up the floor and he was an offensive threat first, passer second.  Nate was definitely a pass first kind of guy.  Brooke-Ley seems to be in the Wang mold so I'd expect the offense to be a bit different but like you said, Maker's scheme demands a lot of passing, cutting, picks so I really don't know how much it is really going to be different.  I think what I'm going to notice most is if guys sag off of HRL he's going to nail the 3, which Nate wasn't able to do and rarely shot it.  Other than that I'm expecting to see the same offensive flow as last year. 

[nescac1]

The best case scenario (a lot has to go right to get there, that was the best offensive team I've seen) is an offense similar to the 2010 team.  I see Mayer in the Geoghegan/Whittington role, Robinson in the Dodson role (though hopefully a better open shooter), Epley in the Schultz role, Wohl in the Rubin role (he is not close to the shooter Rubin was but better at everything else) and Rooke-Ley playing similar to Wang did.  Hayden won't be the scorer Wang was, not close, but does not need to be.  If he sets up his teammates for good looks, turns the ball over less than the Eph point guards have over the past four years, and hits threes when left open the Ephs will be fine.  With at least three other offensive creators there is no need for a ball dominating PG this year.

[amh63]

Jayhawk answered the question posted earlier wrt to where is Willy Workman now.  Willy's story has just been posted on the Amherst website  for those interested.  When the Amherst WBB team won their title, there was an event for the players to receive their rings.  Have been wondering when that will occur...with Williamson And Workman playing overseas.
Madz...I agree on a truce on Toomey talk if one stops the Mayer Talk.  Two different type of players playing different roles on their respective teams.  Let the upcoming season play out.
This is a bit different than last year's discussion we had in the preseason between Kaasilla and Mayer wrt to the best center.

[P'bearfan]

It seems that I with most of the other posters have been waiting for Bowdoin to show its promise so to speak.  I have been waiting for Swords to become a factor ever since his FY.  Actually, looking back a little, the polar bears front court players have height but NEVER shown much otherwise.  My question to others is what do you know that makes you think Swords will step up this season.

A couple of points here:

Agree that Bowdoin needs to demonstrate what they can do.  I think there starters have the talent to match up and play with anyone - their challenge is that they don't appear to have the depth of Amherst, Williams, Midd which could create all sorts of issues - especially if the starters can't stay healthy.

Good point about Bowdoin having a height advantage at guard.  Don't know how they'll take advantage of this (or if they will).  They may wind up relying on a perimeter game but that is always tricky.  IMHO they'll need to have a viable inside threat as well.

Regarding Swords- as I mentioned in an earlier post he didn't start playing competitive basketball until late in high school.  During his FY at Bowdoin the coaches told him to go do something and he did exactly that thing.  He couldn't see how it should flow to the next opportunity.  Last year was definitely an improvement.  He had  2-3 solid moves down low (not spectactular but solid).  You could also see that his feel for the game had progressed.  He knew what to do in a situation and could see the next derivative (not the third or fourth derivative but progress nonetheless). 

What I hear from the pre-seaons workouts is that Swords can now anticipate and pass out of a double team consistently.  He's also one of the most athletic guys on the team - just great footwork.  A 7 footer who can reliably pass out of a double team and has the athleticism to slip to the basket has the POTENTIAL to make a real impact.  We'll see if he can do it but many of the pieces seem to be there.

[madzillagd]

Good point about Bowdoin having a height advantage at guard.

Did someone make this point?  If so, why?

The returning players listed as guards...

6-4
5-10
6-1
6-2
6-3
6-2
5-8
Two are listed as G/F
6-4
6-6

Doesn't seem like a particularly tall backcourt to me.

[P'bearfan]

Good point about Bowdoin having a height advantage at guard.



Did someone make this point?  If so, why?

The returning players listed as guards...

6-4
5-10
6-1
6-2
6-3
6-2
5-8
Two are listed as G/F
6-4
6-6

Doesn't seem like a particularly tall backcourt to me.

You're right.  I mis-read amh63's earlier note - he referred to Bowdoin having size in the front court not the back court.  Ironically, this year I don't think Bowdoin has a height advantage in the front court - other than Swords.  They have a couple of 6-5; 6-6 and 6-7 guys so they're not small.   I think the front court will need to be mobile and pass well to create opportunities for themselves.

[middhoops]

For anyone interested PN has a radio interview with the Middlebury sophomores.  Another very good job of getting players to evaluate each other. 
It would be nice to see all the schools do something similar.


http://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/