MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

Magicman may have hit the correct nail on the topic......cannot rank to many conference teams and the massy impact on ratings.  I think the latter has more impact when you consider the WBB ratings that has 4 conf. team ranked.  Still, different voters and maybe the "factor" that we have scientific evidence that men and women have different thought processes   Truly!
Must be careful of the importance of a win by the PB over Williams to boost Bowdoin's rankings.....really like Middhoops' use of PB for P'Bears...thanks MH! I have been advised to be brief.
Why?....Williams will meet Amherst in LeFrak  in a conference counting game BEFORE the 17th of Jan.  If my thinking is correct, I will see an Amherst win...live....planning on it, as I am making my travel plans.
In a more serious mind set,  there are many games to be played until the 17th of Jan. by all parties and I expect there will be more shakeups in the polls. 

[middhoops]

Hey, amh63; that WAS brief.  Trying to hold to 200 words?
If the Ephs are healthy, I don't love the matchups for your LJs.  Even in that cacophonous madhouse of LeFrak.  We know the familiar faces but it could be a real coming out party for Duncan Robinson and/or David George. 
Who matches up with Robinson for Amherst? 

[jayhawk]

I think reasonable chance that Killian of Amherst covers Robinson of Williams

[madzillagd]

I would actually be surprised if Killian is on Robinson.  While Robinson is truly talented, I would think Killian would be guarding a more 'proven' player.  Green and Epley are very similar players in size and make sense to match up against each other.  I think Killian could very well end up guarding Wohl and maybe Kalema comes off the bench that game and Mussachia starts to get a better match up with Robinson. 

Based on who has been starting (obviously we'll see who is healthy/starting then)

Toomey 6-1       Rooke-Ley   6-1
Kalema 6-0        Wohl 6-6
Green   6-4        Epley 6-4
Killian  6-4         Robinson 6-7
George 6-8        Mayer 6-9

[amh63]

Jayhawk...good choice.  Still, if Pollack is fit, the question may be reversed.  Did see Williams play a man to man defense against Springfield during periods of the game.
I had several other thoughts on the choices of wing players to help provide rest times...one being George at the 4 or 3 positions.  Would be interesting to put George on Robinson...seeing he has the length, hops and quickness.
If both teams' outside shooters are on, it will be who matches up with who...all around.
Another thought for Amherst fans primarily.  In several early games, I got the feeling that Coach Hixon may want to return to a fast break offense...as in the Olsen days giving the talent he has on hand.  With the injuries and all did not see that possibilities.  Had seen Aaron make several long passes down the floor in early games.

[amh63]

Madz...good thoughts/points.  As a person sensitive to listed size , I do want to point out that Killian and Green may surprise some fans with their true size...in person.
After watching the number 22 ranked UMASS team play down the street so to speak, the true size of a player is how big they play..not original but all too true.  the acknowledged best player on the UMass team was the smallest in height at 5'8".  He controlled the game with his play.

[madzillagd]

Completely agree and I think Killian with his strength could match up easily for example with Robinson who is taller.  However, I don't care how quick Kalema is, I don't think he can match up with Wohl giving up at least 6 inches and 35 lbs.  I would be very surprised if that's the route Hixon goes and knowing Toomey is likely to play 40 minutes that game, I wouldn't think he'd want to put him on Wohl either.

[lemonjello]

Good points all.  Wohl definitely represents a major size mismatch for the Jeffs, along with Robinson.  If Hixon feels that George has the quickness to stay with Robinson (and Pollack is healthy) I could see them experimenting with a big lineup, with matchups like this:

Toomey - Rooke-Ley
Green - Wohl
Killian - Epley
George - Robinson
Pollack - Mayer

I'm not sure how feasible that is (since I haven't seen enough of George, and any of Robinson), but the idea of using George's length to disrupt Robinson's outside shooting is intriguing.  I'm not sure how putting 2 bigs on the floor at once will work for Amherst's offensive spacing, but it could create some mismatches of their own in the post/offensive glass.  Or, putting Killian on Robinson and George on Epley might work, if Taylor spends more time down low.

This would bump Kalema back to the bench, which may not be the worst idea in the world given his shaky start.  Swapping Joe Mussachia for Kalema would be another option to get a little more size out there (putting Joe on either Epley or Robinson), but I don't know how effective he would be on those guys.

[nescac1]

In my view Amherst would be insane to take George out of the lane and put him on a primarily perimeter player. No way it happens.  George's help defense inside is way too valuable to stick him on a wing.  I do not see Hixon doing that.  You didn't see Andrew Locke guarding James Wang ...  Also, George has proven to be more effective at this point in his career in more limited minutes, so I imagine that he and Pollack will go back to splitting time at the five.  Having two non-factors in terms of perimeter shooting on the floor together would also really screw up Amherst's spacing. 

For Williams, I think three of the match-ups are easy to foresee: Epley and Green are very similar in build and style of play, and match up perfectly.  Epley is not especially fleet of foot but is a smart, hard-working defender and Green won't be able to overpower him.  Robinson I'd put on Killian, Mayer of course on Pollack/George.  I'd put Wohl on Toomey for most of the game.  Wohl is the Ephs' best perimeter defender and with his length could really bother Toomey's outside shot.  Either Kalema or Toomey will have a quickness advantage on Wohl so I say use him on the guy who is a bigger threat to shoot; I've seen Wohl block a lot of perimeter shots this year and he is very tough to shoot over.  The only fear there is getting Wohl into early foul trouble, but Rooke-Ley is also a guy you don't want in foul trouble due to the Ephs' general lack of proven depth at guard.  I could see the two of them taking turns on Toomey duty, accordingly.  I would do everything possible to stop three things on Amherst: lobs for easy dunks to George, and open threes for Green and Toomey.  You can't stop everything, of course, as Babson learned with Killian, but when Toomey or Green get on a deep shooting run, that is when Amherst tends to really burn teams, and I'd rather give up the occasional drive for two than any easy threes to those guys. 

Mussachia I see playing a similar role to Weinheimer for Williams -- a larger player who can come in off the bench and really bother a forward / wing who is hot with some aggressive defense.  But like with Weinheimer, you give up so much on offense with Mussachia over any of the starters that I don't see him playing enormous minutes.   It's actually interesting how similar the Williams/Amherst benches are this year.  Each has a great back-up at the five who could start almost anywhere else, a solid back-up forward who won't score a ton but still helps the team in other ways, and, to put it kindly, a still-evolving picture on the perimeter (although I do think Berman has looked better than any Williams back-up guard so far this year). 

[old_hooper]

nescac1 you nailed it, this game will be about staying out of foul trouble.  Neither of the teams benches are going to decide this game offensively, it will be about how many minutes the starters will be able to contribute.  Coach H is as good as there is about game planning and only one team has been any better over the last 13 years in getting wins and that is Wooster.  He knows his personnel better than anyone else as does Coach Maker.  Williams did not have the bench that Amherst did last year so this year it looks like there is no edge.  Not so sure that a zone defense will be the answer against the LJ.  When Berman came in against Babson and played point the last 4 minutes is when Toomey went off for his 11 points in the first half allowing him to play wing. These are two potent offensive teams and the one that defends against the other the best and stay out of foul trouble will be the one that will win the game.  Kalema will need to become more efficient for the LJ to really leverage the offense.  He is more than capable to have a game like Killian did against Babson.  He did last year.

[amh63]

Isn't it fun to play a basketball "chess " game like a Coach, but with less knowledge about the health and capabilities of the players...board pieces.  I often do that in my mind as I watch future opponents in online games. 
Then there are posters here that burst my amateur mental moves with true technical phrases as " floor spacing", efficiencies, offensive leverage , etc.
Old hooper, you are wisest among us on this matter...today . I was never a good chess player.
Still, putting George a more defensive player now on Robinson to stop a potent offensive perimeter scorer evens out in my way of thinking.  Amherst does not need George's points, especially if Green, Toomey and Killian are on.  There are other front court players to give Pollack rest.  On the other hand, I think Robinson is now a vital player in Williams' offense.
I go back to the North Central and Amherst game last season.  Two top 5 teams, each having two All American players as starters.  There were mis matches and NCentral had long players.  It ended up in a low scoring game that was won , IMO , by the better defense of Amherst.
I may have exceeded 200 words here.

[toad22]

Last year, Williams played no zone defense at all against Amherst in their 3rd game (NESCAC championship). I don't know what the thinking will be this year. One Williams player not mentioned in the discussions is Ryan Kilcullen. He has exploded out of the pack this year to be a top level player in the league. He is leading the league in 3 pt. field goal percentage, and averaged over 12 pts. per game in his 5 starts. I think he will play more minutes, even when Mike Mayer comes back.

I have watched George play 3 times on the tube so far, and I seriously doubt that he will play any wing players away from the basket. As nescac1 has mentioned, he is at his best being a rebounder, shot blocker, and a help defender. To ask him to play somebody 25 feet from to rim would not be using his talents to their best ability.  If everybody is healthy, that first Amherst-Williams game should be a good one. 

[middhoops]

Not sure this is much like chess, amh63, but we're in a lull in the season and predictions are always fun.  Especially when they don't matter much.

That said, I'm interested in the season that Bowdoin's John Swords might have the rest of the way.
Swords is big enough to score against virtually anyone in D3.  He plays on a much better than average team.  His defense has improved so far this season.
That's all good news for PB fans.
How will Swords fare defensively when NESCAC coaches with multi-talented players attack him? Will he get in quick foul trouble?  Will he block 4+ or more shots a game (a la Locke) and deter penetration?

Lots of us will be watching the PBs and Ephs on the 17th.

[toad22]

I agree with most of the posters that Killian is the logical player to guard Robinson. Killian, though no speed merchant, is about as fast as Robinson, and should be able to keep Robinson from easily getting to the basket. Killian's biggest problem will be preventing 3s. Robinson's eyes light up when he sees a smaller player guarding him. He loves to shoot over them. Robinson has quickly established himself as the second 3 pt. threat, after Epley.

[amh63]

Middhoops.....you sure like those PBs    As posted prior, I am intrigued with the progress of Swords....to see a player that is now a legit 7' impact D3 level games.  His low post moves offensive moves, his endurance, and most of all, his defensive abilities to change a game.  The last several years, his play and my online viewing of his games were limited....due in part that his time on the floor was not much for whatever reasons.  The PBs did have another player of 6'10-11" height ahead of him...though his offensive production in PB games was not much.  This year, Swords appear to have a breakout season...more PT, seems to be able to run the floor better and his contribution to his team's wins via stats is way up.  However, his last game....which I believe is still in the NSN video system...shows that he can have his "bad" days against an average team.  He may have had 7 blocks, but his rebounds and point production is misleading, imo.  Guarded by much shorter players, Swords goes for a layup and misses, gets the rebound, and shoots again, and misses only to get another rebound of his shot.  That sequence was repeated several times.  Hence my comment of a bad day.  He did not dominate the game enough to change the flow of the game I watched.  Swords has another year....has made progress so far and is helping the PBs go undefeated.  Maybe, I expect too much of him.
In reference to how he will do on both sides of the game against better teams, teams with bigger front court players?
Who knows....have not seen Swords when he is playing well.  He does block the lanes and does go out to guard outside and set picks, etc. showing good foot movement.  I guess, the real question you really want to know is how will he play against Mayer of Williams.  It is how Mayer plays Swords.  If Mayer draws out Swords with his outside shots, that opens the lanes a bit.  If Swords stays low and Mayer's outside shots are not falling, then can Mayer get fouls on Swords...etc.   That is why they play the games ....on the floor and not on "paper" here.