MBB: NESCAC

[TheHerst2and4]

When I saw the discussion for career wins I held my breath for a second, thought Amherst's class of 2014 was going to break the school record for wins by a graduating class. Turns out they will tie if they win the national championship, sounds like a win-win to me. Sort of holds a special place for me; that was the only way I would even get close to a school record, riding the coat-tails of talented teammates for 4 years.

[amh63]

Some random comments while awaiting this critical weekend games.  Yes, it seem now is the part of the season which all games are critical for ALL teams.
My comments may reflect that I am watching too many BB games these days.  My books to read are piling up...so why am I still buying them?  My best male friend says that I need to get a life.

First, since you are too modest and a watcher/friend of Walzy....I will "out" you a little...The Herst2and4
The cited poster was a captain of both the football and BB teams at Amherst.  His handle reflects his jersey numbers.  He was a valuable member of the 2007 Title team.  A shut down guard on the BB team and likewise defensive back on winning football teams.  My regards to your dad again.

Missed the U. of VA game....but the HOOS?? did win.  It is most surprising the top two teams in the ACC both have Orange as school colors.....very much like the Purple teams in the CAC.  Saw a bit of a big rival game between Stanford and Cal.  Like the game between Whitewater and Stevens Point, the favorite, higher ranked. team was fighting back from a big halftime deficit.  The Stanford Jersey was almost as bad as the RIC jerseys commented on in previous posts.  Black jersey with dark red? numbers.  Thought Stanford had a brighter red.  In any case, it seems that ranked teams are being tested by conference rivals......yes it is that time of the season.

My comments on the Whitewater vs Stevens Point game....see that the underdog won.  I admit I am bias...and the Un. of Wisconsin schools play a different style of BB, it seems to me.  Still, the talent level is not the same, in my eyes.  The front court of both teams did not impress me.  Whitewater has few good outside shooters and the shooters of Williams are better than Stevens Point.  Overall, the guards in the CAC are quicker than the ones on the two teams I saw last night.   Bottom line.....not a backhand comment here....but I think Middlebury could hold its own against either team on the floor last night.....based on the 2nd half play.
Encouraged that the CAC teams will represent the conference well in the post - season against the likes of Stevens Point.  Small sample but will watch some more games.  Must focus on the two Amherst games this weekend.

[booyakasha]

Pretty compelling race for the down the stretch for NESCAC tourney seeding.

1) Amherst 6-1 (Conn, Wesleyan, Midd). Amherst will remain the one seed barring a loss. (they hold tiebreakers over Williams and Bowdoin).

2) Williams 5-1 (Bates, Tufts, @Conn, @Wesleyan). Winning three of four will ensure the second seed as they hold the tiebreaker against Bowdoin. Losing two opens the door for Bowdoin to sneak into this spot.

3) Bowdoin 5-2 (@Midd, @Bates, @Tufts). Two of three or just winning at Midd ensures they remain in the top three seeds by virtue of tiebreakers, though we've learned it is no walk in the park to go on the road and win this league.

The remaining seeds are really up for grabs

4) Midd 3-3 (Colby, Bowdoin, @Trinity, @Amherst) – Pretty tough remaining schedule. The Colby game will be big as the winner should be the frontrunner for the number four seed, since the winner will have beaten all the other 3-win teams.

5) Wesleyan 3-3 (@Trinity, @Amherst, Hamilton, Williams) – Another tough slate of games. I see them having a tough time winning more than one game here.

6) Colby 3-4 (@Midd, @Tufts, @Bates) – All road games, with the game @Midd tomorrow having huge implications.

7) Trinity 3-4 (Wesleyan, Conn, Midd) – All three remaining winnable home games, could work their way into the four seed. That Midd game looming could be a big one.

8) Conn College 2-4 (@Amherst, @Trinity, Williams, Hamilton) – With this schedule, I doubt they get in.

9) Tufts 2-4 (@Hamilton, @Williams, Colby, Bowdoin) – A little easier than the Conn schedule, still tough though.

10) Hamilton 2-4 (Tufts, Bates, @Wesleyan, @Conn) – Door is open for Hamilton to make an upward move with what looks like the easiest schedule on paper remaining. Good win against Midd to build on.

11) Bates 1-4 (@Williams, @Hamilton, Colby, Bowdoin) – Really need to win one this weekend to have much of a chance. If they do, anything can happen on their final weekend going against their in-state rivals.

[nescac1]

amh63, Wisconsin-Stevens Point is the team to beat in D3 this year, and for good reason.  They have only one loss, against a much tougher schedule than any NESCAC team has played (WIAC is brutal, and they have pounded some really, really good teams from out of WIAC like St. Olaf, St. Thomas, and Whitworth). 

You are definitely way too harsh in your assessment of Steven Point's shooters.  Seven out of nine guys in the rotation can shoot the three point ball very well.  Tillema is basically even with Toomey for best overall guard in the country (counting Walton-Moss as a small forward).  Haas is a Duncan Robinson-level shooter.  They shoot an incredible 53 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3.  They average fewer than 10 turnovers per game.  They aren't particularly big or athletic, but they will almost never beat themselves (except from the foul line, their one flaw as a team), they are much deeper than any NESCAC team, and they are incredibly discplined as a team.  In the 2010 title game, I felt like Williams had the three most talented players on the court in Schultz, Wang, and Whittington.  Williams was certainly more athletic overall.  But Stevens Point was just relentless in its execution and eventually wore you down with depth, strength, shooting, and ability to rarely make a bad decision on the court.  I see this team as kind of the same way, except that it has a true superstar in Tillema (who was on the 2010 team but barely contributed).  They won't wow you with the eye test in the layup drill, but on the court, they are very, very difficult to beat.  They'd be favored vs. any NESCAC team and heavily (more than double-digits) favored vs. anyone other than Williams or Amherst. 

I'd say that little has changed over the course of the season -- Stevens Point is the team to beat, with Illinois Wesleyan probably having the best chance of doing so.   Amherst and Williams (if it can get healthy) are, along with Cabrini, Whitewater, Wash U. and a few other teams in the mix, very close behind IWU, as teams with enough talent to have a legitimate shot. But that doesn't mean they would be favored.   I'm not sold on three of the one-loss teams as teams that could win a title -- WPI, St. Norbert, and Wesley.  But I do think that anyone else in the current top 11 could give Stevens Point a game. 

[madzillagd]

First, since you are too modest and a watcher/friend of Walzy....I will "out" you a little...The Herst2and4
The cited poster was a captain of both the football and BB teams at Amherst.  His handle reflects his jersey numbers.  He was a valuable member of the 2007 Title team.  A shut down guard on the BB team and likewise defensive back on winning football teams.  My regards to your dad.

Groundhog Day was last week.

[Bucket]

Missed the U. of VA game....but the HOOS?? did win.  It is most surprising the top two teams in the ACC both have Orange as school colors.....very much like the Purple teams in the CAC. 

My beloved Hoos did win last night over BC, the 10-point margin closer than the game was (20-pt advantage most of the second half).

It was interesting to see Danny Rubin get on the court for the Eagles during the last few minutes. Danny is the younger brother of former Eph sharp-shooter Alex Rubin. Danny is the only senior on the team and a captain, though he doesn't see much time.

It's interesting—and easy—to contrast his decision/choice to accept the scholarship to BC and play sporadically at the collegiate game's highest level vs. Duncan Robinson's choice to go to school at Williams and play at the highest level of DIII.

Both BC and Williams are obviously great schools, academically, though very different. And each kid is having a hoops experience that will leave them with lifelong memories. But again, very different.

[amh63]

Harsh, Me harsh?...like Blunt better.
Nescac1....thanks for filling me in on your personal knowledge.  I am aware of the highly praised/rated Stevens Point team and their superstar Tillema.  One of the reasons I went to watch the game. Yes, in the second half, Tillema made several outside shots behind screens and drove inside to score....bringing his team back and into a lead.  Still, the announcers were constantly warning about the Pointers outside shooters...which apparently were not hitting in the first half...guarded better?  Yes, I did not address the depth and the discipline factor.  Still, in my eyes, Tillema is a step slow.
The whole team is slow....in their moves to the basket, etc.  Last night, may have been a bad game and for Tillema...for he was called twice for walks...according to the announcer....during the time I watched.  Did not see him in any isolation defensive plays.  I would put Matt Hart over Tillema.  Any stats on his steals, rebounds, assists.
In 2008, in the Title game, Amherst was beaten handily by Wash U.  Wash U is much like Stevens Point in that they had depth galore and tended to wear Amherst down.  They also had a fine guard...sat out a year due to injury, I remember, and wrote several pieces for D3hoops on the matter.  They could be compared with Stevens Point of today on many levels.  Me, I think Wash. U. had more talent....maybe because they beat Amherst

[middhoops]

Harsh, Me harsh?...like Blunt better.
Nescac1....thanks for filling me in on your personal knowledge.  I am aware of the highly praised/rated Stevens Point team and their superstar Tillema.  One of the reasons I went to watch the game. Yes, in the second half, Tillema made several outside shots behind screens and drove inside to score....bringing his team back and into a lead.  Still, the announcers were constantly warning about the Pointers outside shooters...which apparently were not hitting in the first half...guarded better?  Yes, I did not address the depth and the discipline factor.  Still, in my eyes, Tillema is a step slow.
The whole team is slow....in their moves to the basket, etc.  Last night, may have been a bad game and for Tillema...for he was called twice for walks...according to the announcer....during the time I watched.  Did not see him in any isolation defensive plays. I would put Matt Hart over Tillema.  Any stats on his steals, rebounds, assists.
In 2008, in the Title game, Amherst was beaten handily by Wash U.  Wash U is much like Stevens Point in that they had depth galore and tended to wear Amherst down.  They also had a fine guard...sat out a year due to injury, I remember, and wrote several pieces for D3hoops on the matter.  They could be compared with Stevens Point of today on many levels.  Me, I think Wash. U. had more talent....maybe because they beat Amherst

Respectfully, but.......Whoa!  I'm as big a fan as Matt Hart has but you can't be serious, amh63.  Have you seen Tyler Tillema take the ball to the hoop?  I haven't seen a player this season who can stop him.  Takes three guys most of the time.  Hart and Tillema are both good shooters, both clutch players, but Tillema has so many ways to beat you.  He's a physical specimen.
Matt Hart may be as complete a player as Tillema in a couple years.  Hart has great tools.  Not yet, however.

[amh63]

Middhoops.....yes I did see T. Tillema drive to the hoop.  That is what makes the world go around...different views after the same event.  You made  me do some homework.  Tillema is a 6'3" guard on a team that is not very tall or large.  Went to the UW-SP website and looked over a number of games for this season...trying to answer my question of rebounds, assist, TOs, etc....for the superstar player.  I looked at the earlier Whitewater game which SP won, the last 4-5 games played and looked for the closer wins by Stevens Point.  Suggest you look also.  In the North Central (ILL) game won by Stevens Point, Mr. Tillema was the star indeed in points and rebounds.  My take of the two Whitewater games....same 30 minutes played and average stats and the same number of TOs.  In the OT lost to WW last night he was the third or forth starter wrt to minutes played.  He had 4 TOs in the game.  In a big win over a game, he played only 19 minutes...may have been ill.  He does take on average a lot of shots but not an outstanding shooter % wise.  All in all of the 8-9 games I looked at, Mr. Tillema is a solid player but not a superstar except for one game...maybe enough for others but does not change my mind.  Could go through more games but it is not worth it to me.   Check mate to you my friend.  You win!

Madz...thank you for your post.  Will go back and update my earlier post by adding "again" to a statement.  It is always good to give "love" to people one admires.

[lefrakenstein]

More stats, this time trying to give the point guards some love. Top 10 in assist ratio, which measures the percentage of a player's possessions which end in an assist. Min 2 assists / game.

1. Jake Brown, Midd, 41.5%
2. Luke Westman, Colby, 36.5%
3. Mike Greenman, Williams, 35.9%
4. Bo Mckinley, CC, 30.1%
5. Oliver Cohen, Tufts, 29.3%
6. Hart Gliedman, Trinity, 28.5%
7. Daniel Wohl, Williams, 28.2%
8. Aaron Toomey, Amherst, 27.0%
9. Greg Newton, Hamilton, 26.3%
10. Joey Kizel, Midd, 25.9%

Another freshman-dominated listed. Hayden Rooke-Ley is at 15.1%, pretty low for a point guard. That might give some statistical backing to those who have suggested that Greenman might actually be a better fit for the Williams offense.

[amh63]

Lefraken.....good stuff.  The thing is with assists stats is that one has to consider the shooter makes the basket.  Is there any adjustments in your  "model"  for the shooting percentage overall of the players for particular games.  If Conner Green, Kalema and Killian are on,  then Toomey gets more assists and tends to take fewer shots, etc.  likewise, when the players around the PG are not feeling it, then Toomey will keep the ball in his hands longer to win the game...scoring, etc. 
not surprised that J Brown is the leader here since he is not asked to score but to distribute the ball and manage the game when he is in...sort of the opposite for j. Kizel in the early part of the Middlebury season.   Still, interesting results following nice work.  Thanks.

For others that do not have a life during BB season, there are several regional games on tonight. Of interest. Emerson is at WPI at 5 pm....a makeup game...or storm delayed game.  The other is MIT at Springfield...no video on that game given...yet.  The WPI game has a webcast...go to the D3 hoops top 25 box.

[nescac1]

amh63, let's compare Tillema's stats to Toomey's.  Now, you can cherry pick games, but you can also cherry pick games for Toomey.  I'm sure someone could have watched one random Toomey game where his shooting was off this year (including a few NESCAC games) and wonder what all the hype was about.  Tillema has faced, I think it's fair to say, a tougher aggregate schedule.  Here are their stats:

Tillema: 21/5/4, 2.5 turnovers, 2 blocks+steals, 54/43/77 shooting percentage, in 31 mpg
Toomey: 20/4.5/6.5, 2.5 turnovers, 2 blocks+steals, 49/41/90 shooting percentage, in 34 mpg

They are as even as two players can be, statistically.  They both put up monster stats on elite teams.  They both are going to be unanimous first-team all-Americans, or at least, should be.  Toomey creates more for others, but Tillema is a marginally more efficient scorer, especially on a per-minute basis.  But basically, they are dead even.  I can't see how you can say that Toomey is a superstar (which I assume you would, correctly, assert) but that Tillema is not.  They are as close to indistinguishable as two players can be.  And Tillema has had plenty of very strong games against very strong opponents, because over half the teams he has played against are very strong opponents! 

Great work on the stats, lefrankenstein, not sure how you figured that out but certainly beyond my analytical capabilities.  I'm particularly interested in the Greenman/Rooke-Ley comparison.  Rooke-Ley is a lot more effective in terms of scoring at the rim and also can defend bigger guards, both are very solid deep shooters, but Greenman clearly has the edge in terms of creating easy baskets for teammates.  I have a feeling that next year Greenman will move into a permanent starting role and Hayden will move to the two which may be closer to his natural position.  If Hayden does come back this year (knock on wood), it might be best for the team if he plays as a combo guard off the bench (while still playing basically starter minutes).  He could be a huge and badly needed offensive centerpiece and primary ballhandler on the second unit, while Greenman could start each half more focused on getting other scorers involved.  I'd still expect Hayden to finish games on the floor, mainly for defensive reasons, but Greenman's emergence gives Coach Maker some interesting options in terms of how to work the rotation. 

[Bucket]

As promised, the latest episode of The Road to Salem:

http://vimeo.com/85990062

No spoiler here: the ending is painful for any Midd fan.

[AmherstStudent05]

Great stuff as always, Bucket.  You guys are really giving new meaning to the term "all access!"

Personally, I would have rather not seen the final 90 seconds or so.  Tough to watch and reveals a reality I would probably rather avoid about how painful the losses can be to the players who have actually invested so much in success (as opposed to fans like me who just pop in and out for the webcasts).  Of course, Hunter had absolutely no reason to hang his head or feel like he let his team down.  I was able to watch the game a few days ago on the archive system (wish Amherst had that luxury by the way).  Merryman played his guts out.  And he played great ball.  His last shot was right on line too -- nothing nervous or tentative about it.  Just rimmed out is all.

[nescac1]

Amazing video, as usual.  We've never seen this kind of stuff in NESCAC before, and I imagine may not again for some time, once the producers graduate.  And good point on Merryman AmherstStudent -- watching the game, I concluded that he was just too open and had too much time to shoot / think about it.  But it's interesting, watching it again, I think it was just a good, unhesistant shot that happened to rim out -- I think I was just imposing a likely narrative on the play that seemed to make sense but didn't really match reality.  Sinnickson's last shot also did everything but go in, and that was a very well-guarded, and quite deep, three pointer.  His unusual athleticism on both ends really stands out even more in the HD highlights (the block on Wohl, no slouch of an athlete himself, was nasty) and if he is healthy for an entire year next year he is going to be a force to be reckoned with. 

It was nice to hear Jeff Brown's comments to the Williams players after the game.  He remains a class act.