MBB: NESCAC

[P'bearfan]

Quote from: toad22 on Today at 08:45:20 pm

This is a big win for Middlebury. They should now get a first round home game in the NESCACs.




While it would look that way, it is more likely that Middlebury will be on the road for the quarterfinals. Below is the final rankings listed by record if favorites win each game game next weekend.

3. Bowdoin (5-3) at Tufts (W), at Bates (W) = 7-3
4. Hamilton (4-4) at Wesleyan (W), at Conn. College (W) = 6-4*
5. Middlebury (5-3) at Trinity (W), at Amherst (L) = 6-4

*holds tiebreaker



I expect there to be a lot of surprises next weekend. Bowdoin could lose two next weekend, honestly. I expect the Tufts game to be a real battle, and the finale against Bates, at Bates, a traditional rivalry game, the last game of the year for the Bobcats. Throw the 1-7 record out the window. Of course Bowdoin could certainly win both, but I would not be surprised by 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2 for the Polar Bears.

You'd think that Hamilton would have the best shot at 2-0 next weekend, but again 2 road games  and Wes has shown they can pull off an upset.

And then Midd, as mentioned, two very tough road games next weekend. But the Panthers have shown they can play with anyone as well. Obviously, 2-0 would be huge. But 1-1 might still be enough for a top 4 finish.

I agree that there are no sure things as we head into the final 2 games of conference play.  Bowdoin will face tough tests at both Bates and Tufts.

My question is this: is the NESCAC as strong or stronger than last year so we are seeing more parity? Or is something else going on?

[7express]

This is a big win for Middlebury. They should now get a first round home game in the NESCACs.

While it would look that way, it is more likely that Middlebury will be on the road for the quarterfinals. Below is the final rankings listed by record if favorites win each game game next weekend.

3. Bowdoin (5-3) at Tufts (W), at Bates (W) = 7-3
4. Hamilton (4-4) at Wesleyan (W), at Conn. College (W) = 6-4*
5. Middlebury (5-3) at Trinity (W), at Amherst (L) = 6-4

*holds tiebreaker

I can definitely see Bates beating Bowdoin on Friday.  It's a home game for Bates, and a rivalry game.  After starting out the NESCAC so well beating Mid, they can at least end the season on a positive note with a win over their state rival.  Tufts, even with being up and down, is definitely capable of beating the Polar Bears as well and is fighting for that last spot at home
Can't see Hamilton sweeping next weekend either.  That's a long trip for them, and both the Camels & Cardinals are playing well.  Wesleyan, you may remember has a home win over an Eastern Connecticut squad that is 16-5 on the year and 10-0 in the LEC.
I know Mid is playing well right now, but I wouldn't pen them in for a win over Trinity.  Like Wesleyan & Conn College they are playing well, and if things break right for them they could end up as high as the 3 seed.
As someone said earlier, it's going to be a crazy final weekend.

[Panthernation]

This is a big win for Middlebury. They should now get a first round home game in the NESCACs.

While it would look that way, it is more likely that Middlebury will be on the road for the quarterfinals. Below is the final rankings listed by record if favorites win each game game next weekend.

3. Bowdoin (5-3) at Tufts (W), at Bates (W) = 7-3
4. Hamilton (4-4) at Wesleyan (W), at Conn. College (W) = 6-4*
5. Middlebury (5-3) at Trinity (W), at Amherst (L) = 6-4

*holds tiebreaker

I can definitely see Bates beating Bowdoin on Friday.  It's a home game for Bates, and a rivalry game.  After starting out the NESCAC so well beating Mid, they can at least end the season on a positive note with a win over their state rival.  Tufts, even with being up and down, is definitely capable of beating the Polar Bears as well and is fighting for that last spot at home
Can't see Hamilton sweeping next weekend either.  That's a long trip for them, and both the Camels & Cardinals are playing well.  Wesleyan, you may remember has a home win over an Eastern Connecticut squad that is 16-5 on the year and 10-0 in the LEC.
I know Mid is playing well right now, but I wouldn't pen them in for a win over Trinity.  Like Wesleyan & Conn College they are playing well, and if things break right for them they could end up as high as the 3 seed.
As someone said earlier, it's going to be a crazy final weekend.

Noting favorites to analyze seeding probabilities should not be conflated with "penciling in" victories. The probability of correctly predicting 6/6 games (none of which would likely draw double-digit lines) is obviously very low.

[magicman]

I don't believe I have been to LeFrak since I graduated -- an awfully long time ago now (since graduation I have only seen Amherst live in Salem or Atlanta).  However, if work cooperates, I think I might make the trek next Sunday.  Maybe I can get tips from magicman on where to sit to get captured by the cameramen for the Road to Salem.  I promise that it would do wonders for your ratings!

I responded to this once but thought you were going to Middlebury since you made reference to getting captured by the cameraman for the Road to Salem video. That's where you have to be to make the video. Fortunately middhoops sent me a message and informed me that the game was in Amherst so I deleted that post since it didn't make much sense. I don't think the Road to Salem video crew goes on the road and I have never been to Lefrak myself.  I wouldn't know where to position you even if the crew did go on the road. Now if it were Pepin Gym you were going to I could put you in the most photogenic place in the house.    

[AmherstStudent05]

  If Bowdoin beats Bates and Tufts next weekend, which I expect they will, I think they are basically a lock for the tourney, whatever happens in the NESCAC tournament -- some New England teams with far worse resumes, like Springfield last year, made it into the field. 

This might be so.  However, IF Midd beats both Trinity and Amherst next weekend (a very big ask to be sure, but something that must be within the Panthers' sights), you would have a very difficult time convincing me that Bowdoin is more worthy of a Pool C selection than Middlebury is (assuming all things even in the NESCAC Tournament, of course).  Personally,  I really think teams should be rewarded for playing, and at least sometimes beating, top quality teams.  With wins over Alvernia on a neutral court, at Skidmore, Bowdoin, and (if my hypothetical holds) at Amherst, Midd's resume would be much more appealing to me than Bowdoin's.

Look, I want to be careful here when discussing non-conference schedules because I recognize that these schedules are dependent on numerous factors (money, logistics, availability, mutual agreement) that may not be within a school's control.  Also, in light of how Pool C selections seem to be made, it seems like a wise "strategy" to try to make your non-conference schedule as non-threatening as possible.

Still, I think if you are going to play a weak non-conference schedule (whatever the reason), it should only increase the pressure to get results against the top teams in conference play.  Despite playing three very competitive games against Amherst, Williams, and Midd, Bowdoin has yet to accomplish this (despite taking care of business against the rest of the Conference).  As I mentioned earlier, Bowdoin can still get a "big conference win" in the NESCAC Tournament, which, in my mind, would establish their Pool C bona fides.  However, absent such a win, I would not put them in at the exclusion of Midd if Midd sweeps its upcoming games this weekend.

[madzillagd]

Am05-  It didn't hurt Midd any last year, why should it hurt Bowdoin this year? I think it's a reach to think Midd is going to creep ahead of Bowdoin if the PBears win the rest of their games. Midd dropped 3 games to Will/Am last year and didn't have a difficult nonconference schedule but there was never a doubt they would make the tournament.  KnightSlappy has his predicted regional rankings over in the Pool C topic and he's got Bow @ 7th and Midd @ 10. Regardless of Midd winning this weekend, they still have the only loss to Bates in the conference. I can't imagine the committee seeing that loss and a loss to Ham (if Bowdoin beats them both) and thinking they deserve a spot over Bowdoin. Midd knows they need to win the tournament and they are now playing like they know that.

[Bucket]

Am05-  It didn't hurt Midd any last year, why should it hurt Bowdoin this year? I think it's a reach to think Midd is going to creep ahead of Bowdoin if the PBears win the rest of their games. Midd dropped 3 games to Will/Am last year and didn't have a difficult nonconference schedule but there was never a doubt they would make the tournament.  KnightSlappy has his predicted regional rankings over in the Pool C topic and he's got Bow @ 7th and Midd @ 10. Regardless of Midd winning this weekend, they still have the only loss to Bates in the conference. I can't imagine the committee seeing that loss and a loss to Ham (if Bowdoin beats them both) and thinking they deserve a spot over Bowdoin. Midd knows they need to win the tournament and they are now playing like they know that.

Agreed.

Though Bowdoin can't slip up this weekend or in the NESCAC tournament. A loss (or two) this weekend, coupled with an exit before the NESCAC title game, and I think they are on the outside looking in. That's not to say that Midd then earns a Pool C, even with the optimistic scenario of two wins this weekend and say a run to the NESCAC title. If that were to happen and the above were to happen to Bowdoin, maybe Midd's on the bubble, but I think it would be just as likely that the NESCAC would then become a two-team conference in the tourney.

Middlebury knows it needs to win the NESCAC tournament to advance. The games this weekend are huge, for seeding purposes, but I don't expect them to have an impact on Panther Pool C chances, barring a totally unforeseen run of results across the NE region during the next two weeks.

[nescac1]

If last year's 19-8 Springfield team, which had only three good wins (granted, they were very good, Amherst, MIT, and WPI) could make it in, I'm not sure that Midd can be totally counted out IF they can pull out the sweep this weekend and win at least one round in the NESCAC tourney.  No easy task, to be sure, but they aren't dead in the water for a Pool C just yet, although probably hanging on by a thread. 

I stand by my confidence in Bowdoin making the tourney with a sweep this weekend, unless just a HUGE number of teams from anticipated one-bid conferences are upset in conference tourneys.  They would then finish no worse than 20-4, from a power conference, with no bad losses, one really good win over a possible tourney team in Babson, and several decent wins (Western Conn, Trinity, Colby x2, Hamilton).  Even with the weak non-conference schedule, I can't think of any NESCAC team that has failed to make the tourney (at least since the tourney has expanded to its current larger pool) after a 20-win season.  I guess we will see . 

[amh63]

Interesting how scheduling within the conferences impacts the games this last week of the regular season.  Amherst has one game on Sunday.  Trinity  even has a OCC game today...as shown on the D3hoops site.
I guess it will be Senior Day for the Amherst players this Sunday.  If so, the players, especially the three captains will want to play well in front of their parents, etc.  Thought the Bowdoin players did the same  in their game against Amherst, looking at the stats for the game and for the seniors in particular.
For those thinking about post-season chances...the regional rankings by the NCAA..first of three..come out on Wed. The 12th.  Maybe clearer picture then....2nd ranking on the 19th, I believe.

AmhStud05...liked your mention of the former two sport BB player Brian Daoust...believe he holds the Amherst record for 3-point shots made in a single game at nine. The same as that guard for The Orangeman in the Notre Dame game last week.

Nescac 1....agreed with your assessment of Mr. Hurley of Bowdoin.  tough player to be out on the floor ....thought the same thing when he played a few minutes in the Amherst game.  Do not think he has taken a shot in either of the games discussed here.

Update...Daoust '01 holds the record with J. Wilson'97.

[madzillagd]

  Even with the weak non-conference schedule, I can't think of any NESCAC team that has failed to make the tourney (at least since the tourney has expanded to its current larger pool) after a 20-win season. 

Didn't the Wesleyan team two years ago go 20-6 and not make it?

[nescac1]

My mistake, that is true madzillagd.  Bowdoin won't have 6 losses assuming they win this weekend, but perhaps they will need at least one quality win in the NESCAC tourney to feel safe ... I also feel like there are very few good at-large candidates from New England this year.  Basically, there are the top-tier NEWMAC teams, but they will be handing each other a few more losses over the next few weeks making it more difficult for them, Albertus Magnus if it loses in its conference tourney (unlikely), Eastern Conn if it loses in its conference tourney, and that is about it ...

[Old Guy]

I would point out that the technical foul did NOT cost Bowdoin the game. It may have cost Bowdoin the game. Absent the technical, there would still have been an overtime to play. Middlebury certainly would have been saying, "here we go again." On the other hand, the Panthers had been ahead the whole game. 50-50.

I set the alarm to 2:00 a.m. on Friday night for the Colby game, but had no guts when the time came. After catching both the Williams game (2:00-4:00 a.m.) and the Hamilton game the week before, my sleepy self said, don't do this again, and I was happy to get the score and recap in the morning.

Couldn't get the video for the Bowdoin game, so "watched" the live stats with Young Girl. What an anxiety-inducing way to watch a game. I was pacing when White hit the three to tie with five seconds to play. I was apopletic. "This poor team can't catch a break!" I said some bad words. The same week St. Amour wrecks his knee. Sheesh.

Then, she said, "Wait, a technical with 2 seconds left, Kizel hits the shots, we win!"

What? Huh? How? A technical?

Live stats provided no explanation. Right away, I figured it was a matter of Bowdoin calling time-out without having any left, and I told her that. She said I was a basketball genius to know that. No, I said (having done some reffing myself, in the town league), if a Bowdoin player had run out on the floor and screamed at the ref calling him a F______ A______ to his face, still no ref would have called a "T" with two seconds left in a tie game. Had to be the excess time-outs.

Then I told her about Chris Webber. This is called parental mentoring.

(N.B. Bowdoin assistant Bobo Mcfarland is a contemporary of mine, two years younger. Middlebury didn't play the Maine schools when I was playing, so I never faced him, but saw him play many times - I taught h.s. in Maine immediately after college. He could really play. Still holds lots of their scoring records, before the three point shot, the 35 second clock, and the expansion of schedules with post-season play, including most points per game in a season, with 25+. Ask Midd's Russ Reilly how good he was - Russ was coaching at Bates when McFarland was a Polar Bear. Just as good in baseball too).

[lefrakenstein]

Couldn't get the video for the Bowdoin game, so "watched" the live stats with Young Girl. What an anxiety-inducing way to watch a game. I was pacing when White hit the three to tie with five seconds to play. I was apopletic. "This poor team can't catch a break!" I said some bad words. The same week St. Amour wrecks his knee. Sheesh.

Then, she said, "Wait, a technical with 2 seconds left, Kizel hits the shots, we win!"

What? Huh? How? A technical?

Live stats provided no explanation. Right away, I figured it was a matter of Bowdoin calling time-out without having any left, and I told her that. She said I was a basketball genius to know that. No, I said (having done some reffing myself, in the town league), if a Bowdoin player had run out on the floor and screamed at the ref calling him a F______ A______ to his face, still no ref would have called a "T" with two seconds left in a tie game. Had to be the excess time-outs.

Then I told her about Chris Webber. This is called parental mentoring.

+k. Greatly enjoyed this recap. Having spent one recent season in China, I fully sympathize with timing and webcast issues.

[jumpshot]

Regarding Bowdoin's prospects this weekend ---

Against Bates, Bowdoin will enhance its likelihood of winning by playing zone defense against Bates so as to limit drives to the basket by Bates' guards with Swords protecting the hoop and rebounding, especially in Bates' undersized court. Bowdoin will have to close out three point attempts as Bates can shoot the ball from deep and will likely be comfortable doing so at home.

Against Tufts, Bowdoin will benefit from Tufts brand of undisciplined, random, individually mandated offense. A slower pace will also benefit Bowdoin if the Polar Bears can establish the tempo and get a lead.

Of course, the game behavior of many NESCAC players is unpredictable and speculation is often fruitless .....

[middhoops]

OG, nice touch.
You don't remember but I played in the men's league when you were a ref.  I'm not going to say you got most of your calls right, but you were absolutely fair in doling out confusion to all.  I was on a team that was based solely on your ability to drink beer after games or pay for those who could drink two dozen Buds at Mr. Ups.  Being 47 when I was recruited, you can guess which group I was in. 
Still, you ol' SOB, I never got a charging call from you when those 22 year olds ran me down like bulldozers over a three toed sloth.
Anyway, nice reasoning with YG.