MBB: NESCAC

[P'bearfan]

Just checked the weather and it looks as if it will snow in Brunswick through Saturday.  Hope Bowdoin will be able to play the last two games.  I won't be able to make the Bates game but I'm planning to travel to see the Tufts game in Medford.

Will keep my fingers crossed.

[ronk]

 Here's the story on S. VT in the Wash Post today - http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/washington-area-basketball-players-trek-to-vermont-for-one-last-shot-at-glory/2014/02/13/956ec814-925c-11e3-b227-12a45d109e03_story.html

[Panthernation]

Final NESCAC Regular Season Posts:

Assessing the Tournament Landscape (with a look at possible tie-breakers): http://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2014/02/14/breaking-down-the-nescac-tournament-picture/

A Preliminary Look at the NESCAC Player of the Year Candidates: http://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2014/02/13/starting-the-nescac-poy-discussion/

NESCAC Power Rankings: http://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2014/02/14/nescac-power-rankings-for-214/

[7express]

Final NESCAC Regular Season Posts:

Assessing the Tournament Landscape (with a look at possible tie-breakers): http://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2014/02/14/breaking-down-the-nescac-tournament-picture/

A Preliminary Look at the NESCAC Player of the Year Candidates: http://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2014/02/13/starting-the-nescac-poy-discussion/

NESCAC Power Rankings: http://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2014/02/14/nescac-power-rankings-for-214/

+1!  EXCELLENT writeup on all the tiebreakers for the NESCAC this weekend.

[7express]

Let's finish up the weekend:

Saturday:

Wesleyan +15 @ Amherst
Over/Under 152.5

Tufts +10 @ Williams
Over/Under 146.5

Conn College +8 @ Trinity
Over/Under 125

Bates pick @ Hamilton
Over/under 143

Sunday:

Bowdoin -1 @ Middlebury
Over/under 135.5

Amherst 81-56.  Amherst & Under
Williams 93-70.  Williams and over
Trinity 98-66.  Bantams and Over
Hamilton 88-64.  Continentals and Over
Middlebury 69-66.  Panthers and just under

[7express]

Lines for this weekend:

Friday:

Williams -16 @ Conn College
Over/under 144

Bowdoin -5.5 @ Bates
Over/under 133

Middlebury pick @ Trinity
Over/under 138

Hamilton +2 @ Wesleyan
Over/under 140.5

Colby +3 @ Tufts
Over/Under 145.5

Saturday:
Colby +1.5 @ Bates
Over/Under 145

Hamilton -4 @ Conn College
Over/Under 147.5

Williams -10 @ Wesleyan
Over/Under 140

Bowdoin -3.5 @ Tufts
Over/under 131.5

Sunday:
Middlebury +10 @ Amherst
Over/Under 157

[amh63]

Seems all the games today are on!  After Madz's post did check around a little.  Trinity and Williams had the Administration leave and left classes to the profs.  Tufts showed no reaction to the weather. Anyway, will not watch any conference games since none really impact Amherst's position.  Wait!, the Panthers are going to Trinity to play "tough city kids" to paraphrase  an assistant coach somewhere. Be careful Middlebury.  Want the team at full strength before meeting Amherst.
May check in on the WashU vs Brandeis game.  WashU is a strong candidate to reach the Final 4...gives me a chance to see them play a UAA team that Amherst beat without Pollack way back.

Nice writeups by Panthernation...thanks guys.   Have one question on the article on POY candidates/rankings.  Is the writer who argued last season that Kalema was better than Aaron
still making inputs?  This was before Aaron made POY and was the BasketCoaches Association pick as the player of the year.  I know, but I could not help myself here. Am weak!

For Amherst fans...there are MBB and WBB Team Pictures and others....probably in part for Senior Day
Gifts.  Go to the Amherst home page.  Hit the flicker button.  The pics are before the hockey pics and after some pics of students being creative in the snow.

[nescac1]

Nice job, as always, Panther Nation.  If nothing else, you should ace the games section of the LSAT (do they even still have that, it's been awhile ...) after all that analysis of potential seeding outcomes. 

7express, well done with the lines.  Now we just need someone to step into Walzy's all-crazy team selection shoes.  Maybe I'm not focused enough on a bunch of onerous (I assume) travel conditions today, which could hurt road teams, but I still LOVE all of tonight's road teams with those lines.  Five road teams (other than one hiccup for Colby) who have been playing very well and with a lot to play for vs. five home teams which have had, for the most part, some struggles of late and with generally less to play for.  Although Bates is not a fun gym to play in and it's a rivalry game, I expect Bowdoin to come out VERY fired up after what happened against Midd.

[madzillagd]

"Williams has stumbled just once this season in NESCAC play, but the Ephs have been less than convincing in a number of their wins. Regarded by many in the pre-season to be the most talented team in the country, Williams has thus far failed to dethrone Amherst. With an outside shot at hosting the NESCAC Tournament, the Ephs would love to secure a pair of wins, though they cannot fall beyond the two seed in the standings." - MPBlog

This comment struck me as interesting, largely because I wrote a post twice today and deleted it both times because I didn't want to go down that path.  But after reading this, I'll throw it out here finally.  In seeing that SVC article today, it made me think about how much of the Williams season has been in the shadow of the first game of the year.  More specifically, how big a shadow of doubt was cast by a single foul call with 3 seconds left.  For anybody that didn't watch the game, Williams up by 1, SVC misses the shot with 3 secs left and HRL is called for a foul.  SVC knocks down the free throws and the rest is history.  I have no idea if it was a good call or not (here's the play if you want to see it http://instagram.com/p/g3L6cZJPhn/ ), but it's funny how such a simple thing has had such an impact on Williams this year.  That initial stumble out of the gates has left many doubting, myself included, whether they could ever reach the potential we thought they had.  The deja vu losses to Amherst just cemented that doubt so even though they head into the final weekend of conference play with a 19-3 record, they've not eliminated any of the baggage they picked up from the first game of the year. 

So when I read the comment by the blog boys, my first thought was to agree with them because yes, Williams seems to have struggled (which I think a lot of that has to do with who was available to play etc).  But when I think a bit longer, I think that really isn't the case at all.   They definitely had some stretches of poor play during games but overall they have done quite well in league, they just didn't beat Amherst.

Here's the results for this year with the final score differential

Opponent         Amh       Williams
Bates                +11           +22
Bowdoin            +3             +5
Colby                -5              +7
Conn                 +12
Ham                  +18           +20
Midd                                   +3
Trin                   +6             +20
Tufts                  +8             +23
Wes                  +25           
Amh                                    -11
Wil                     +11

Amherst clearly has had Williams' number the past two years but then you look at the overall conference play this year, Williams has done quite well when you look at the results.  Everyone's clear #1 team Amherst has had closer games against the lower opponents.  In fact, there hasn't been a conference game yet where Amherst beat a common opponent by more points than Williams (although with Wes playing well I think that could change this weekend).  I'm just wondering how much impact that first game loss had on the perception of Williams. Are we too far into the trees focusing on the negative things and not seeing the forest? 

[nescac1]

Very good analysis, madzillagd.  Amherst has owned Williams so far this year, no doubt about it; those games were even less competitive than the final scores indicate.  The head-to-head match-ups are obviously the best way to evaluate two teams.  But other than those two games, Williams' aggregate body of work this season has been more impressive than Amherst's, which is a bit hard to figure.  I think that is some combination of Amherst matching up very well vs. Williams (the Ephs, like many teams, just can't stick with both Amherst guards) but also, Williams playing FAR from its best possible level vs. the Jeffs, they just played really, really tight in those games.  In particular, Duncan Robinson has struggled a bit vs. Amherst, and has basically dominated most of the rest of the conference.  If he has his typical shooting game (and believe me, many of the shots he missed vs. Amherst are the same exact shots he typically nails, it's not like Amherst did anything really unusual to guard him), suddenly those games are a heck of a lot more competitive. 

Overall, Williams has looked MUCH better in recent weeks, despite a few key injuries.  I attribute that to four things: (1) Williams has been playing much better defense.  I'm not really sure why, but the D was very leaky the first half of the year.  While still not a dominant defensive team, they are now above-average, which is a dramatic improvement; (2) Robinson growing ever-more comfortable playing a leading role in the offense, and taking a lot more shot attempts; (3) Daniel Wohl's health -- his overall impact on games is much different than it was early in the year, just looks like a totally different guy; and (4) the biggest difference, Michael Mayer finding his groove after a lost first half of the season, getting back to 100 percent, and playing like an all-American center instead of merely a pretty good one. 

The biggest challenge will be how to integrate two key players into a rotation that has been working very well.  Epley and Hayden will be huge upgrades over Weinheimer/Aronowitz/McCreary on the offensive end, particularly when it comes to perimeter and foul shooting.  But will their presence detract from the (very effective) emphasis of late on Duncan and Mayer as a one-two punch?  And Weinheimer, Aronowitz and McCreary have been huge factors in Williams' recent success in the zone -- their length and quickness have really tormented some teams.  So when their minutes (presumably) decline, if Williams keeps playing zone, I worry that it will be less effective.  Epley and Rooke-Ley are two of the tougher man-to-man defenders on the team, so perhaps Maker will play more man if and when they return healthy; but neither is very tall or especially athletic, so it is easier to shoot over them in a zone.  Theoretically, the extra space on the floor generated by two guys who have to be guarded at the three point line SHOULD really open things up for both Mayer and Robinson.  It will be interesting to watch. 

[Pat Coleman]

it made me think about how much of the Williams season has been in the shadow of the first game of the year.  More specifically, how big a shadow of doubt was cast by a single foul call with 3 seconds left.  For anybody that didn't watch the game, Williams up by 1, SVC misses the shot with 3 secs left and HRL is called for a foul.  SVC knocks down the free throws and the rest is history.  I have no idea if it was a good call or not (here's the play if you want to see it http://instagram.com/p/g3L6cZJPhn/ ), but it's funny how such a simple thing has had such an impact on Williams this year.

The other 39:57 could have made that three seconds irrelevant.

[Panthernation]

"Williams has stumbled just once this season in NESCAC play, but the Ephs have been less than convincing in a number of their wins. Regarded by many in the pre-season to be the most talented team in the country, Williams has thus far failed to dethrone Amherst. With an outside shot at hosting the NESCAC Tournament, the Ephs would love to secure a pair of wins, though they cannot fall beyond the two seed in the standings." - MPBlog

This comment struck me as interesting, largely because I wrote a post twice today and deleted it both times because I didn't want to go down that path.  But after reading this, I'll throw it out here finally.  In seeing that SVC article today, it made me think about how much of the Williams season has been in the shadow of the first game of the year.  More specifically, how big a shadow of doubt was cast by a single foul call with 3 seconds left.  For anybody that didn't watch the game, Williams up by 1, SVC misses the shot with 3 secs left and HRL is called for a foul.  SVC knocks down the free throws and the rest is history.  I have no idea if it was a good call or not (here's the play if you want to see it http://instagram.com/p/g3L6cZJPhn/ ), but it's funny how such a simple thing has had such an impact on Williams this year.  That initial stumble out of the gates has left many doubting, myself included, whether they could ever reach the potential we thought they had.  The deja vu losses to Amherst just cemented that doubt so even though they head into the final weekend of conference play with a 19-3 record, they've not eliminated any of the baggage they picked up from the first game of the year. 

So when I read the comment by the blog boys, my first thought was to agree with them because yes, Williams seems to have struggled (which I think a lot of that has to do with who was available to play etc).  But when I think a bit longer, I think that really isn't the case at all.   They definitely had some stretches of poor play during games but overall they have done quite well in league, they just didn't beat Amherst.

Here's the results for this year with the final score differential

Opponent         Amh       Williams
Bates                +11           +22
Bowdoin            +3             +5
Colby                -5              +7
Conn                 +12
Ham                  +18           +20
Midd                                   +3
Trin                   +6             +20
Tufts                  +8             +23
Wes                  +25           
Amh                                    -11
Wil                     +11

Amherst clearly has had Williams' number the past two years but then you look at the overall conference play this year, Williams has done quite well when you look at the results.  Everyone's clear #1 team Amherst has had closer games against the lower opponents.  In fact, there hasn't been a conference game yet where Amherst beat a common opponent by more points than Williams (although with Wes playing well I think that could change this weekend).  I'm just wondering how much impact that first game loss had on the perception of Williams. Are we too far into the trees focusing on the negative things and not seeing the forest?

From this perspective, Williams' regular season disappointment has everything to do with the Amherst losses and little-to-nothing to do with the Southern Vermont loss.

[toad22]

Picky, picky, picky! Williams is 19-3! They are having a great season, and are, in my opinion, just beginning to play really well. Whatever they have done in the last 22 games, it is likely to be the worst of their season's output. I believe that you need to play your best in February and March. Williams seems to be doing that. If you look at NESCAC numbers only, Williams is dominating the offensive stats, and doing quite well in the defensive stats. They don't rebound well, but that is their only big failing. Go Williams!

[amh63]

Pat C...most profound and to the point!  Can one give the "boss" a karma point? Oh what the heck...plus 1k brownie point
Madz...interesting post as always.  If you must use a point differential argument, please get the numbers correct...Amherst won in Chandler by 12, not 11, even when they were trying not to score in the last minute.  Yes Toad22, I am being picky here . Also, there is the factor of home and away games not given any importance in the table...a small point again in conference games.

There are always "second guessing" games and the impact that could be by all.   Last season, Amherst beat Williams by double digits at home and away.  In the conf. Title game,  Williams played great, but lost because of the last second BLOCK  by Williamson.  Many do not want to talk about Willy,s play that sent the game into 2ot.  This season, there is the missed shot by the Middlebury's freshman that could have gone in and changed the outcome of the Williams game.  What about the end of the Bowdoin game with Amherst or the technical foul on Bowdoin.  All are "what ifs".  That is what makes college games here and at other levels so exciting to watch.  Reminds me of the old Winter Olympic's  introduction dealing with wins and defeats...as we see some skier crash.

Did anyone else see the long last second 3-point shot made by a freshman that kept Syracuse undefeated and no 1 in the land  of Div 1?

[AmherstStudent05]

Lines for this weekend:

Friday:

Williams -16 @ Conn College
Over/under 144

Bowdoin -5.5 @ Bates
Over/under 133

Middlebury pick @ Trinity
Over/under 138

Hamilton +2 @ Wesleyan
Over/under 140.5

Colby +3 @ Tufts
Over/Under 145.5

Saturday:
Colby +1.5 @ Bates
Over/Under 145

Hamilton -4 @ Conn College
Over/Under 147.5

Williams -10 @ Wesleyan
Over/Under 140

Bowdoin -3.5 @ Tufts
Over/under 131.5

Sunday:
Middlebury +10 @ Amherst
Over/Under 157

Challenging lines as usual, 7express.

I like Conn and the over
Bowdoin
Midd and the under
Hamilton
Colby