MBB: NESCAC

[AmherstStudent05]

Interesting post, madz. A lot to unpack.

I didn't see the Southern Vermont game, and I can say that it has had absolutely no bearing on my impression of Williams at any point this season. (This may not be fair at all, but I have always chalked that one up to Coach Maker and his guys being caught a bit off guard that they weren't up against last year's Southern Vermont team.  I will also say that season opening games can always be tricky.  I recall that the 2010 Amherst team -- an Elite Eight team that I thought was very good -- nearly (and probably should have) lost to Maine-Farmington to open that season).

I think the big "issue" with Williams has a lot to do with expectations.  In the last 5 or so seasons, three powerhouse NESCAC teams have run the table in conference (obviously headlined by last year's Amherst team).  In light of that dominance, I think some part of many of us think that a team can only be a powerhouse if it runs the table in the conference.  Of course that is not really a reasonable position.

As everyone has mentioned, the two Amherst losses probably loom large in evaluating Williams's season.  Amherst is Williams's biggest rival and easily the best team they have played this year, and neither game was particularly competitive.  I am sure that was disappointing to Williams fans (a disappointment that can still be at least partially rectified).  But it's not just the Amherst games.  Recall that at halftime of the Middlebury game, Frank was basically writing the Ephs off.  I am sure even nescac1 had visions of Williams's season flashing before his eyes as well.  Obviously, things have changed a great deal since then.  Williams played a great second half to eek out the win in Pepin; went down to New Jersey for a very impressive mid-week win over a solid Stevens team, and then, last weekend, down two starters, played beautiful basketball in routing Bates and Tufts.

nescac1, it's not quite as clear to me that Williams's aggregate body of work is more impressive than Amherst's.  Of course, removing the Amherst-Williams games takes away two of three Williams losses and Amherst's two best wins, so, on that basic level, you might be right.  Still, Amherst also has non-conference regional wins over Eastern Connecticut, Babson, RIC, and Nichols.  I am not sure Williams's non-conference schedule stacks up.

To be fair, I think this year shows some of the problems about evaluating scheduling.  Heading into this season, I would have thought that a Williams win at Hampden-Sydney would have been very impressive.  Unfortunately for the Ephs, H-S is having an uncharacteristically down year, taking a lot of (though certainly not all) the luster off that win.

[madzillagd]

amh63 - conference game was 11.

[middhoops]

Trinity announcers.....Snickerson and Kizzle.

[P'bearfan]

Halftime in Lewiston and Bowdoin is up 39-24.  P'bears playing well on both ends.  The surprise so far is how well Hurley is playing.  He hit two 3 pointers including one that was from NBA range.  Beyond that Hurley is also moving much better - probably not 100% and HBC Gilbride will likely continue to limit his minutes but definitely better.

[middhoops]

Midd up 28-17 after a half of intense defense by the Panthers.  Truth be told, Trinity is playing very far below the level of recent games.  Second half could be a different story.
Matt Daley played a few minutes and had some promising moments.

[nescac1]

Really entertaining first half in the Williams-Conn game.  Very up-and-down pace, not a ton of defense played, both teams shooting the lights out.  Congrats to Matt Vadas from Conn on setting the all-time Conn scoring record, and doing it with style -- 20 points in the first half including 5 threes, several from VERY deep (I believe the record-breaking shot was about a 26 footer).  Fortunately for Williams, Duncan Robinson is matching him nearly shot for shot.  The highlight for Robinson was when he snagged a rebound, rocketed down the entire length of the court and finished with a two-handed jam.  He seems to get better every game. 

Great news for the Ephs: Taylor Epley is back and looked very good out there. 

[quicksilver]

Bowdoin downs Bates by a score of 75-49. In the really good news department for the P-Bears, Bryan Hurley played 22 minutes, hit three three-pointers, and was moving very well. Even took a nasty fall toward the end of the game and was none the worse for the wear . .

[P'bearfan]

Bowdoin defeats Bates 75-49.  Bowdoin had three players in double figures and was lead by Madlinger who had 20 points including 7-17 from the field.  Hurley finished with 9 points and 4 assists.  Nice job P'bears.

One of the biggest challenges tomorrow for Bowdoin may be the weather.  Reports are calling for a total of up to 8 inches of snow in Boston and Brunswick.  Don't know that I'll be able to make the trip (or that they'll be able play Tufts). 

Does anyone know if they'll try to play a make up game?

[P'bearfan]

I've never quite worried about Karma points (or understood them) but someone dinged me for reporting the half time score of the Bowdoin - Bates game.  Really?  Have to assume that was a Bates fan.

[Vandy74]

An important win for Middlebury with ragged play from both teams much of the way.  Good defense  usually has something to do with that.  Nobody was consistently clutch shooting-wise for the Panthers although Kizel and Merryman found a way to hit them when most needed.  Snickerson just couldn't find the range all night.  (I've gotten used to Kizzle)  Still, some solid play particularly on defense and a very good win with only Amherst on the road remaining before the tournament.

[nescac1]

Conn hung with Williams until about eight minutes left in the game, and then the Ephs finally seized control.   Great, great effort by a Camels team that is far less talented than Williams -- they played really beautiful team basketball, moving the ball very well and picking apart the zone, and hitting a lot of very difficult jumpers (many long twos, which generally is a shot you are happy to give up).  Zuri Pavlin couldn't deal with Mayer but he is a nice young big guy and about the only reason for Conn to have much hope for next season.  Of course the story of the day was Matt Vadas, who torched the Ephs for 39 points on a variety of great shots, deep threes, great post moves, slashing into the lane, quick-release jumpers.  Great offensive player and I'm happy Williams won't ever see him again.

For the Ephs, it was a four man show but man what a show from those four guys.  Mayer: 30 points, 8 boards, 6 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks, Conn had no prayer of stopping him.  He was positively awesome, and his last three games he has played like the best center in the country.  Duncan Robinson, like Mayer, was a force on both ends: 25 points, 4 boards, 2 assists (could easily have been 6 but for guys missing shots off great feeds), 4 steals, 2 blocks.  Two of the best players in D3 right there, both playing to their ability levels.  Daniel Wohl also continued his fine play of late, driving into the lane again and again and making a lot of big baskets in the second half: 22-6-7 not bad for the third option on the day!  Finally, Mike Greenman was perfect for the field, scoring 13 points and nailing 3 triples, and best of all had zero turnovers -- Williams only had 6 total all game, and two of them came in garbage time.  He hit a few clutch shots when they were badly needed. 

Williams certainly has areas to improve upon, despite the lights-out offensive play.  Although Conn played great, the zone defense allowed way too many open looks both from three and from cutters into the lane.  Vadas reminded me of Paul Reynolds in last year's NCAA with his play in the middle of the zone, using his quickness and savvy to score near the rim or create easy looks for teammates.  Williams finally started to tighten up on defense later in the game, but really, Conn (who, again, played beautifully) was able to exploit them a bit too easily for a 9-12 team.  Williams also gave up WAY too many rebounds and second-chance points; the Ephs' defensive rebounding continues to be a work in progress and is inconsistent from game to game.  Finally, for the third straight game Williams could have shot the ball better from the free throw line.

But overall, a great win for Williams considering that Conn, and Vadas in particular, was just shooting the lights out.  The Williams offense has become very, VERY difficult to stop with Robinson and Mayer firing on all cylinders and plenty of capable players around them. 

[Pat Coleman]

I've never quite worried about Karma points (or understood them) but someone dinged me for reporting the half time score of the Bowdoin - Bates game.  Really?  Have to assume that was a Bates fan.

Someone could have read an earlier post for the first time and decided based on that.

[Bucket]

The Midd win and Hamilton loss guarantees a game in Pepin next weekend. Happy to have another go behind the mic.

[Vandy74]

The Midd win and Hamilton loss guarantees a game in Pepin next weekend. Happy to have another go behind the mic.

Hamilton lost?  Excellent! (With apologies to another close cousin who matriculated there.)  I had been meaning to check on that but somehow got sidetracked. 

[nescac1]

AmherstStudent05, again, Amherst clearly has the edge because of the two head-to-head wins.  But I do think Williams has performed slightly stronger (although it's close) over the rest of its schedule -- which is why I do think (while Amherst should still be the favorite in any head-to-head match-up on a neutral floor) its performance in the Amherst games is a bit of an outlier.  I think it's sort of like last season, in which Williams looked terrible in the first two Amherst games, but then by the third game, showed that they could play with any team in the country, including the Jeffs (even if they fell agonizingly short). 

In other NESCAC play, Williams has, as madzillagd pointed out, generally had a slightly better margin of victory against common opponents, and of course Amherst has the Colby loss.  I'd say Williams' top four non-NESCAC wins (Springfield, at Hampden-Sydney -- yes, down a little, but still very talented and still a tough place to play, at Stevens, at Castleton State are roughly equivalent to the four Amherst wins you mentioned, three of which came at home, and both have lost a game they should not have (Southern Vermont and Emerson), plus Amherst has the loss vs. the D2 school but that is really hard to evaluate.  In all events, it's pretty close and I hope that Williams will meet Amherst again, and play the way it has been playing the last few weeks, instead of the way it played in the first two meetings.  If they do, the game should go down to the wire. 

Speaking of the last few weeks, Duncan Robinson's numbers during the Ephs' current seven-game winning streak:

20 ppg, 7 rpg, 3 apg, 57% from the field, 52% from three, 1.5 spg, 1.3 bpg, 1 turnover pg.  The lack of aggression from early in the season is totally gone, and, without ever seeming to force the issue (as evidenced by the low turnover number) he has been looking for his shot much more frequently.  His passing over this stretch has really impressed me as he has consistently created good opportunities for teammates.  In the first half last night, I thought he was playing at a different speed from everyone else on the floor, the way Toomey has looked many times this year.  Williams is going to need a lot more of that as the competition continues to get tougher in the postseason.