MBB: NESCAC

[Panthernation]

Funny that a Second-Team All NESCAC player has been offered a scholarship at a D1 powerhouse (I think I have been clear about which side of that equation I think was flawed). man as he weighs an obviously difficult and important life decision.

Where you stand on the D3 All American landscape has little or nothing to do with a player's ability to compete at D1.  There is no "equation" to be "flawed".  No doubt there are players not even sniffing post season honors who can compete quite well at D1 if given the chance and others named to the teams who would have no shot to do the same. 

This is so wrongheaded that it barely merits a response, but I guess I will take the bait. 

Really? OK, you are a mid major or lower D1 coach with guards who are doing the job for you.  You have a nice big man but you need to spell him for 6-10 minutes a game with someone who can come in, hopefully make a layup but more importantly clog up the middle and block a shot or two.  Toomey, DeBarto out of Rochester, your boy Willie and Andrew Locke as a senior are all available and dying to transfer to your school .  Who are you taking?  Two were All Americans, the 3rd arguably should have been.  Locke?  No one mentioned his name, EVER in All American or even ALL NESCAC discussions.  Wrongheaded?  Learn about situations, needs and what players bring to the table versus awards and accolades.  Equations belong on math tests and MIT problems, not common sense basketball decisions.  It's not the science you want it to be.  Sorry. 
     

Again, my comment, which you are still incapable or unwilling to address head on, was limited to a "D1 powerhouse."  As a matter of course, the Michigans of the world simply do not look to the NESCAC to fill out their scholarship quota -- even if conference stalwarts like Andrew Locke expressed interest. This is an incredibly special achievement worthy of an incredibly special talent -- the kind of talent that simply COULD NOT fly under the radar come ALL NESCAC selection time.  DR is certainly such a talent.

You're both partially right, which means you're also both partially wrong. Duncan Robinson absolutely should have been a First-Team All-NESCAC selection, but the fact that Michigan came calling has nothing to do with it; his performance over the course of the season more than justified that decision. As we wrote then: "If we were in the business of giving co-PoY’s, it would have been hard not to split this one between Toomey and Robinson. The Jeff and the Eph put together two distinct but dominant seasons .... If you can have a flawless season as the top scorer on a top team nationally, it would look a lot like Duncan Robinson’s 2013-14. But Robinson missed one game out of ten in conference play, and Toomey’s points plus assists might surpass his efficiency deficiency, so we think the award should go to the Amherst senior. However, both should be remembered as deserving candidates."

That Duncan Robinson will likely finish his career at Michigan or Davidson does not make his case for First-Team honors any stronger, but it does make his Second-Team selection a more unfortunate decision. He had one of the great single-season performances in NESCAC history and it should have been recognized by the coaches and conference as such. So yes, DR was a First-Team snub, but it had nothing to do with how he projected as a Division I player and everything to do with the numbers he posted. Again, from our post-season awards writeup: "Robinson scored 18.9 points per game, shooting 75% on 2-point field goals and 53% on 3-point fields goals, making him the best pure scorer in the conference. Robinson led the conference in both 2-point and 3-point percentage. As in, the best three-point shooter in the conference had a higher field goal percentage inside of the arc than John Swords and Hunter Sabety — and it wasn’t even close."

But grabtherim is right that the D1 discussion is different. There are a number of very good NESCAC players who never would have attracted D1 attention (Peter Lynch comes to mind) as well as a number of far less decorated players who have considered transferring or whose game might better fit the D1 style. There certainly is no equation for guys making the jump across levels of play (as madzillagd and toad22 have pointed out, Spike Albrecht was nearly an Eph and certainly doesn't "look" like a D1 player). But despite the fact it's not "science" we can come much closer to creating an equation for who deserves First-Team All-NESCAC recognition and no one has yet made a compelling argument against Duncan Robinson's case.

[sac]

Anyone know Duncan's birthdate?

The reason I ask is John Beilein has this thing about recruiting kids with certain birth dates, or using it to determine a players development level.

[ziggy]

A few links, for those interested in reading more on the Robinson situation:

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140729/SPORTS0201/307290085/1361/Report--Williams-College-sharpshooter-Duncan-Robinson-visiting-Michigan
https://twitter.com/Balas_Wolverine/status/493970495763521536
http://www.umhoops.com/2014/07/29/report-michigan-host-division-iii-transfer-duncan-robinson/

Also, Robinson is visiting Davidson too: https://twitter.com/umhoops

As a Michigan fan, I'll add one more link: http://mgoblog.com/content/out-several-left-fields-duncan-robinson
I found this part particularly good when thinking about the jump from DIII to Michigan (just after the video):

And... yeah, doesn't most of that translate to D-I? I mean that on the block fadeaway is a Stauskas move and the various moving three pointers are un-checkable at any level. If this was a high school reel we'd all be like "yes please."

There is quite a bit of "In Beilein we trust" coming from Michigan fans, but he has more than earned that trust.

[AmherstStudent05]

Funny that a Second-Team All NESCAC player has been offered a scholarship at a D1 powerhouse (I think I have been clear about which side of that equation I think was flawed). man as he weighs an obviously difficult and important life decision.

Where you stand on the D3 All American landscape has little or nothing to do with a player's ability to compete at D1.  There is no "equation" to be "flawed".  No doubt there are players not even sniffing post season honors who can compete quite well at D1 if given the chance and others named to the teams who would have no shot to do the same. 

This is so wrongheaded that it barely merits a response, but I guess I will take the bait. 

Really? OK, you are a mid major or lower D1 coach with guards who are doing the job for you.  You have a nice big man but you need to spell him for 6-10 minutes a game with someone who can come in, hopefully make a layup but more importantly clog up the middle and block a shot or two.  Toomey, DeBarto out of Rochester, your boy Willie and Andrew Locke as a senior are all available and dying to transfer to your school .  Who are you taking?  Two were All Americans, the 3rd arguably should have been.  Locke?  No one mentioned his name, EVER in All American or even ALL NESCAC discussions.  Wrongheaded?  Learn about situations, needs and what players bring to the table versus awards and accolades.  Equations belong on math tests and MIT problems, not common sense basketball decisions.  It's not the science you want it to be.  Sorry. 
     

Again, my comment, which you are still incapable or unwilling to address head on, was limited to a "D1 powerhouse."  As a matter of course, the Michigans of the world simply do not look to the NESCAC to fill out their scholarship quota -- even if conference stalwarts like Andrew Locke expressed interest. This is an incredibly special achievement worthy of an incredibly special talent -- the kind of talent that simply COULD NOT fly under the radar come ALL NESCAC selection time.  DR is certainly such a talent.

You're both partially right, which means you're also both partially wrong.

Thanks for settling this so definitively, PN!  I am afraid though that your post isn't quite on point.

Again, for the third time, this isn't a discussion about how some NESCAC player MAY have projected to the lower Ivy or Patriot League if ever given the chance.  This is a conversation about a young man who has ACTUALLY been offered a SCHOLARSHIP from MICHIGAN.

Unfortunately, the sample size for this in the NESCAC seems to have been a null set until a day or two ago so we don't have much history to work with.  My contention though is that no big time D1 college coach would offer a scholarship to a NESCAC player unless that player demonstrated (by NESCAC standards) outstanding size/athleticism, talent, and production.  I would further say that anyone who has demonstrated such traits would be an obvious First-Team All-NESCAC selection.

I think if Coach Beilein really thought that DR played at a level worthy of only Second Team All NESCAC status I highly doubt he would have offered him in the first place.  If you can't dominate the NESCAC, how will you play in the Big 10.

Again, I am NOT saying, and have never said, that all NESCAC players would have the same relative value in the Ivy League if we could magically transport them to that level of competition.  Certain players may well have games that, at the very margin of things, translate better to the different style of play. (Although, I think that is largely moot since I don't think those players would really get much PT at the D1 level of play anyway).  But to get a scholarship from Michigan out of the NESCAC is something very special.  If DR didn't turn in a special season last year, I don't think he would have gotten that opportunity.

(As an analogy, d3 players are rarely drafted into the NFL.  I suspect there too that almost always those players that are drafted -- Garcon, Shorts -- were highly decorated at the D3 level.  If you didn't dominate at the division 3 level, NFL teams are likely to be VERY hesitant to draft the player.  This doesn't mean that less decorated players couldn't contrbute to an NFL team -- just that they are almost certain not to be drafted.)

[GingerBaker]

Anyone know Duncan's birthdate?

The reason I ask is John Beilein has this thing about recruiting kids with certain birth dates, or using it to determine a players development level.

What's that, pray tell?

[P'bearfan]

http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2014/07/report_michigan_basketball_in.html

This article mentions that DR also has interest from Creighton (though it's unclear whether he will take a visit there).  While a scholarship offer from Michigan is a tremendous achievement, IMHO Creighton would seem to be a better fit - they know how to use someone who can score from inside and out.

Good luck to DR whatever his decision.

[nescac1]

Toad, if you happen to see Duncan hanging around Williamstown, can you pass this on to him?  (Hey, it's worth a shot!) ...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2014/07/30/williams-college-ranks-no-1-on-forbes-7th-annual-ranking-of-americas-top-colleges/

[sac]

Anyone know Duncan's birthdate?

The reason I ask is John Beilein has this thing about recruiting kids with certain birth dates, or using it to determine a players development level.

What's that, pray tell?

The middle portion of this article talks about it a little.   Essentially he wants to know if a kid is young for his class or old for his class.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24606891/is-john-beilein-the-best-at-turning-lowly-recruits-into-lottery-picks

[GingerBaker]

Pretty interesting.  Thanks for putting that up.  Duncan's birthday is January 1.  Just kidding. 

[Panthernation]

Thanks for settling this so definitively, PN!  I am afraid though that your post isn't quite on point.

Again, for the third time, this isn't a discussion about how some NESCAC player MAY have projected to the lower Ivy or Patriot League if ever given the chance.  This is a conversation about a young man who has ACTUALLY been offered a SCHOLARSHIP from MICHIGAN.

Unfortunately, the sample size for this in the NESCAC seems to have been a null set until a day or two ago so we don't have much history to work with.  My contention though is that no big time D1 college coach would offer a scholarship to a NESCAC player unless that player demonstrated (by NESCAC standards) outstanding size/athleticism, talent, and production.  I would further say that anyone who has demonstrated such traits would be an obvious First-Team All-NESCAC selection.

I think if Coach Beilein really thought that DR played at a level worthy of only Second Team All NESCAC status I highly doubt he would have offered him in the first place.  If you can't dominate the NESCAC, how will you play in the Big 10.

Is it really so hard to imagine a scenario in which Duncan Robinson was actually deserving of a Second-Team All-NESCAC spot and John Beilein still recruited him? What if he had missed five conference games due to injury or illness, diminishing his First-Team candidacy but not his overall stat line and obvious potential? Or what if he scored four fewer points per game during the regular season (making him a deserving second teamer), but finished with the same stat line because he had an even more dominant NCAA Tournament run (which wouldn't have factored into NESCAC awards)?

And if either of those counterfactual scenarios is possible, how is using a scholarship offer from Michigan helpful to making a First-Team All-NESCAC case? If Duncan Robinson had put up Tom Killian's line during the regular season and conference play (15.1 ppg on 51/39/80) and then had an even better NCAA Tournament do you think that Beilein or the "couple of ACC and Big 12 schools" that were interested would have gone away? Even if he had *just* put up Killian's numbers with the incredible potential he has do you really think Beilein wouldn't have been interested? Is there that much difference in your mind between 15.1 on 51/39/80 and 17.1 on 56/45/87? (After all, Belein wasn't limited by the parameters the NESCAC coaches were in making his decision. And who really knows how much tape or stats of Robinson he needed to see to take interest?)

So again, why rely at all on the reductive logic that a scholarship offer from a D1 power program guarantees that the player was First-Team worthy when you can use the wealth of stats unique to Duncan Robinson that clearly demonstrate he was a First-Team player? A scholarship offer from Michigan doesn't inherently make Robinson's (already tremendous) candidacy any stronger.

[GingerBaker]

Maybe I'm wrong, but Amherst 05's OG comment seems to me to have re-raised the "Shouldn't Duncan have been on the First Team?" question. 

It is a little interesting that there was some sentiment that Matt Hart should have been on the 2nd team (don't remember specifics about that), and he's now headed to a low D1 (still awesome!), and Duncan got placed on the second team (where Matt Hart belonged at the very least) and may be headed to one of the premier programs in the country.

So, no, awards don't matter.  And, yes, if a freshman has a good a season as Duncan had (particularly in-conference), and there's space for him on the first team, put him on it, mon frere.   

[grabtherim]

This is paralysis by analysis.  I am sure Beilein and members of his staff had heard of Robinson at some point before he arrived at Williams and certainly after he showed his skills once he was there.  Rumor has it there might be a relationship to support that theory.  Watching him play last season required his staff to have a working knowledge of the Williams website.  Tough stuff indeed. 
You think a phone call between old friends for an assessment of his skills and/or to get some tape ever took place?  Probably not, and I'm sure Beilein agonized on him making 2nd Team NESCAC versus 1st before pulling the trigger on offering him. 
Robinson clearly has D1 skills.  Good enough to excel and get meaningful minutes in the Big 10 after he sits out this season?  I sure hope so. Time will tell.     

[AmherstStudent05]

PN, I find it hard to imagine that a Big 10 coach would seriously consider giving any NESCAC player a scholarship.

Much as I love the NESCAC, the gap between the NESCAC and the Big 10 is enormous.  While we may never know, I think Duncan Robinson needed every inch of his stellar performance last year to get Coach Beilein's attention.  Was Coach Beilein interested when Duncan was in high school? Do we know? If not, why the sudden change?  Did he just completely overlook him at first or did his performance on the hardwood over the past year open his eyes?

Duncan Robinson had a fabulous year last year -- a season that fully deserved d3hoops.com All American recognition (which he got) as well as First Team All-NESCAC (which he obviously didn't get).  Had his sensational efforts -- not just captured by stats -- been merely very good, I am not sure that top D1 schools would have been interested.  Not sure we will ever know. As we can all agree (I think), this sort of thing happens very rarely.  Who knows, maybe I will wake up tomorrow that Coach Crean has offered James Sanderson based on that young man's potential as has been talked up from time to time by fellow Amherst partisans on these boards.

I in no way "rel[ied]" on this recent news in making the case for DR as a First Team selection.  I believe if you go back you will see that, prior to March 1 or whenever these awards were anounced, I (along with tons of other people) was touting his case for a First Team spot.  I merely find it "funny" or interesting that the first ever NESCAC player -- as far as we know -- to have ever been offered a Big 10 scholarship wasnt even considered to have had one of the top 5 seasons in the conference.

[nescac1]

GingerBaker, I wouldn't call where Hart is headed, GW a "low" D1.  But, he is headed there as a walk-on (he did on the other hand receive scholarship offers from low-tier D1s, which is not all that rare even for guys who choose NESCAC schools out of high school, see, e.g., David George).  Duncan (as a transfer) had multiple scholarship offers from mid-tier D1s, and at least one from an elite D1 program, and that is indeed a big difference, and heretofore unheard of.  I know Mike Nogelo received interest from those kind of D1 programs in high school, but that was before he suffered a knee injury as a senior.  I can't think of anyone else in NESCAC who has even been on the radar of programs like Creighton, let alone Michigan. 

As for all-NESCAC, it comes down to this: NESCAC coaches don't put first year players on all-NESCAC teams, even when they are deserving.  For Ducan to even make a second team all-NESCAC squad (when obviously he warranted first team recognition based on his performance) was something that we've only seen once, I believe, and may never see again -- his performance was just too good to TOTALLY ignore.  I'm guessing that a bunch of coaches had him on the first-team squad, and a bunch refused to vote for him at all out of principle, hence the second team compromise.   

And by the way, Joey Flannery must feel pretty good right now considering that he beat out Duncan for D3 New England ROY on D3hoops (of course, after his awesome NCAA performance, Duncan ended up beating out Flannery for National ROY). 

[NEhoops]

nescac1, great point. Robinson was the first FY to make either all conference teams and I'm certain that this wasn't the first time that a FY was one of the top 10 players in the conference (Rhoten/Ellis/Brown). The voting by the coaches isn't a slight to certain players, more so a reward to the upperclassmen.