MBB: NESCAC

[7express]

If anyone wants some action for LEC vs. NESCAC games this year.  I'll do this for all the conference games and LEC vs. NESCAC games or tournaments where each conference have a team. 

For Saturday:

Colby
vs.
Purchase (@ Eastern Connecticut)
Purchase -6.5; over/under 144

Trinity (CT)
@
UMass-Dartmouth
Dartmouth -1.5; over/under 140

Framingham State
@
Conn College
Conn -9; over/under 138.5

[nescacobserver]

Ray Barry listed on the Amherst roster.  Very interesting.  When healthy, he is a very tenacious player, one of the better one-on-one defenders you will see at this level.  Talented offensively as well.  This gives Amherst tremendous depth at the point guard position, with Dawson, Barry, and Berman.  How many Nescac coaches would like to have that kind of depth at such a critical position?  How will Hixon keep these three guys happy?  (same could be asked how he'll keep Pollack, George, Conklin, and Nabatoff happy splitting time at the 4/5 slots).

[lumbercat]

7express
I'll take all the NESCAC teams based on your lines

[nescac1]

re: Amherst, how is Jayde Dawson listed as a first-year when he played an entire season of basketball at FDU last year?  There is no way he has four years of eligibility left.  Similarly, how is Ray Barry only a sophomore?  I know he hasn't played much due to injuries, but he was originally in the class of 2015 -- does that mean he skipped TWO years at Amherst to retain three years of eligibility?  I do recall that he was the most highly touted recruit in his class, so with the addition of Barry, Dawson, and the two big frosh, Amherst's perimeter game is no longer a question mark, and indeed should be pretty loaded for the next three seasons. 

Seems like several of the bigs from last year's Amherst roster saw the writing on the wall with all of the interior talent, and decided not to return, with three guys, most notably Joe Mussachia who was a rotation player, absent from this season's roster (the two others saw no meaningful action).  It's certainly scary that Amherst figures to be at worst the co-favorite this year without, likely, a single senior, and with only two juniors, in the rotation. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

If I remember correctly, Amherst lists students based on their academic standing, not athletic eligibility.

[amh63]

Roster out?  Surprised a bit since I checked last night.  Oh well...late to the show.  The surprise is the absence of Kevin Hopkins '08, assistant coach.  Also that no Captains are listed...yet.
Ray Barry is listed as a jr.   I did meet the only senior Levin at the football game and we chatted briefly. Seems he has dropped an inch and gained some weight.  Checked all the weight of the returning players and see that the front court players....including Green..has put on some weight...size.
Coach Hixon did mention he had only one senior on the roster.  Was pleased that Ben Pollack was stronger and fully recovered and that Green was also fit.  Ray Berry's return is a surprise.  We talked a bit about his transfers and why they came to Amherst.  Both wanted an academic school.  Mentioned the big Arizona player working out and reading chem books during rest periods...med school in the future.  Liked both freshmen.  The player from Virginia is athletic, while the one from Ma. Is more polished for Nescac play...is how I interpreted the comments.
I believe the roster is not complete.  There is a football player that is expected to show up.  Told the former point guard to show up AFTER the football season finished.  Jamie Spears was the point guard on a top St. Marks team.  The other 4 starters all went Div. 1
We will see.  It should help in practice.  Coach Hixon mentioned that it was hard on both Kalema and Aaron guarding each other during practice.
Like Jayhawk pointed out..it will take time to mesh the team. 

[lefrakenstein]

Roster out?  Surprised a bit since I checked last night.  Oh well...late to the show.  The surprise is the absence of Kevin Hopkins '08, assistant coach.  Also that no Captains are listed...yet.
Ray Barry is listed as a jr.   I did meet the only senior Levin at the football game and we chatted briefly. Seems he has dropped an inch and gained some weight.  Checked all the weight of the returning players and see that the front court players....including Green..has put on some weight...size.
Coach Hixon did mention he had only one senior on the roster.  Was pleased that Ben Pollack was stronger and fully recovered and that Green was also fit.  Ray Berry's return is a surprise.  We talked a bit about his transfers and why they came to Amherst.  Both wanted an academic school.  Mentioned the big Arizona player working out and reading chem books during rest periods...med school in the future.  Liked both freshmen.  The player from Virginia is athletic, while the one from Ma. Is more polished for Nescac play...is how I interpreted the comments.
I believe the roster is not complete.  There is a football player that is expected to show up.  Told the former point guard to show up AFTER the football season finished.  Jamie Spears was the point guard on a top St. Marks team.  The other 4 starters all went Div. 1
We will see.  It should help in practice.  Coach Hixon mentioned that it was hard on both Kalema and Aaron guarding each other during practice.
Like Jayhawk pointed out..it will take time to mesh the team.

Man, that's too bad about Joe Mussachia. I thought he had a chance to follow in the Allen Williamson/Tom Killian mold and have a big senior year. Also, that leaves Amherst extremely thin on the wing, with really only Connor Green having any experience at all playing any of the 2/3/4 positions. Amherst will have to look to a combination of newcomers (McCarthy, Riopel), sophomores who barely saw the court as freshman (Racy, Wright, Magana, Holding), undersized guards (Barry, Dawson), and over-sized bigs with little range (Pollack, George, Conklin, Nabatoff) to fill in the gaps. I still don't think any of those last four guys are going to see any time at any position other than center. Either Nabatoff or Conklin is going to be the best 4th-string center in all of d3.

I can't wait till Tuesday to see what Coach Hixon has in mind for this roster.

[nescac1]

lefrankenstein, you obviously know Amherst better than I do, but notwithstanding that, I'd gladly take "over 40" on a bet of how many minutes will Pollack, George, Conklin and Nabatoff play per game.  I have to think that two of those guys see time at the four ... and in particular, I just can't see having one of, most likely, the four best guys on the roster (who will likely be Green, George, Dawson and Pollack in some order) seeing limited minutes off the bench.  But I guess time will tell.

As I see it, the only real question for Amherst is who will start at the 2 and get minutes as a back-up wing.  If Amherst's biggest problem is having to choose from six guys, all 6'4 and over and most of them highly-regarded recruits, for those two positions, that is a problem almost every D3 coach in the country would trade for ...

My totally uninformed guess as to Amherst's rotation: George, Pollack, Green, Racy, Dawson starting 5 through 1 respectively, backed up by Nabatoff, Conklin, Wright, McCarthy and Berman, with McCarthy potentially supplanting Racy once he gets more experience. 

My somewhat more informed, but still speculative, guess about Williams' rotation:

Kilcullen, Wohl, Aronowitz, Rooke-Ley, Greenman 5-1, backed up by Flynn, Kroot, Teal, and Thoreson.  Eventually, at least one of the three football guys will break into the rotation as well (most likely Sime or Hayes helping out at the 5 and 4 up front), but I'm sure that it will take awhile for them to be ready for meaningful playing time. 

[lefrakenstein]

lefrankenstein, you obviously know Amherst better than I do, but notwithstanding that, I'd gladly take "over 40" on a bet of how many minutes will Pollack, George, Conklin and Nabatoff play per game.  I have to think that two of those guys see time at the four ... and in particular, I just can't see having one of, most likely, the four best guys on the roster (who will likely be Green, George, Dawson and Pollack in some order) seeing limited minutes off the bench.  But I guess time will tell.

As I see it, the only real question for Amherst is who will start at the 2 and get minutes as a back-up wing.  If Amherst's biggest problem is having to choose from six guys, all 6'4 and over and most of them highly-regarded recruits, for those two positions, that is a problem almost every D3 coach in the country would trade for ...

My totally uninformed guess as to Amherst's rotation: George, Pollack, Green, Racy, Dawson starting 5 through 1 respectively, backed up by Nabatoff, Conklin, Wright, McCarthy and Berman, with McCarthy potentially supplanting Racy once he gets more experience. 

My somewhat more informed, but still speculative, guess about Williams' rotation:

Kilcullen, Wohl, Aronowitz, Rooke-Ley, Greenman 5-1, backed up by Flynn, Kroot, Teal, and Thoreson.  Eventually, at least one of the three football guys will break into the rotation as well (most likely Sime or Hayes helping out at the 5 and 4 up front), but I'm sure that it will take awhile for them to be ready for meaningful playing time.

I hope you're right. We'll see. Williams' pieces fit much better together. One of the major reasons I think they'll win the league this year.

[P'bearfan]

Also, that leaves Amherst extremely thin on the wing, with really only Connor Green having any experience at all playing any of the 2/3/4 positions. Amherst will have to look to a combination of newcomers (McCarthy, Riopel), sophomores who barely saw the court as freshman (Racy, Wright, Magana, Holding), undersized guards (Barry, Dawson), and over-sized bigs with little range (Pollack, George, Conklin, Nabatoff) to fill in the gaps.

Thank you.  I thought I was the only one who saw real challenges in the Amherst lineup.  The LJ's have a lot of talent but too much of it is at the same position and much of it is unproven. 

If the other NESCAC teams all had weak front courts this season then this imbalance might not be as big a challenge for Amherst.  However, they're likely to face at least 4 teams with front courts that can go toe-to-toe with them on any given night (i.e. Tufts, Trinity, Bates, Bowdoin).   If these teams are healthy and stay out of foul trouble when they play Amherst, each of them should give the LJ's a run for their money (or more). 

IMHO, the LJ's don't want to get into a close game that comes down to foul shots.  That's not likely to be their strength this year – but that may be exactly the type of matchup they face this year.

[P'bearfan]

Williams' pieces fit much better together. One of the major reasons I think they'll win the league this year.

I think the NESCAC is pretty wide open this year and a reasonable case can be made for any of at least six teams, including Williams, winning it.  However, I'm struggling with the assessment that Williams' pieces fit together better (than Amherst?).

When you look at their respective rosters, Amherst and Williams are almost exact mirror images of each other.  Amherst has an uproven back court and only 1 proven long range shooter and these are likely to be Williams' strengths this season.  Amherst, as you mentioned, has tremendous depth in the front court but Williams is likely to be weak up front and will struggle on the boards (the return of Ed Flynn is likely to improve their front court but it's hard to see him doing it all himself). 

The Ephs will win games but they will really need their outside shooters to be on when they face a team like Trinity who is likely to crush them on the boards.

[toad22]

In general, I'll take speed and shooting over size and rebounding every time. Thus, I have high hopes for Williams this year. They will not be very big - Kilcullen 6'6 1/2" at center, and Wohl 6'6" at PF, for example, but they should shoot it great. Kilcullen was a couple of attempts from leading the league in 3 pt. shooting % last year. In his 5 starts when Mayer was hurt, he averaged ~ 13 ppgs., and shot the 3 at roughly 60%. Dan Wohl is an All American caliber player who has always played in the shadow of other great players. He should shine this year. It should be a very interesting year for Williams, since the Ephs will be facing much bigger, but probably much slower, teams in most NESCAC contests.

[jayhawk]

Interesting discussion
Both Ray Barry and Jayde Dawson are combo guards and could play the 2 guard position
Ray Barry has worked to significantly improve his strength- tremendous hustle and go get him
Both Barry and Dawson are physically strong guards.

Each of the Amherst bigs have some similarities but also some differences.
Conklin likes to drive off the dribble and is very good at inside contact, George is more of a straight jump shooter (best shot blocker), Ben Pollack is a little mix of the two (excellent defensive position) and actually Nabatoff at some point could play 4 or 3
He has a lot of athleticism and initially played guard before a big growth spurt

Be interesting to see how much of the time two bigs will play together
McCarthy is more of a two guard  who is very good at slashing to the basket while the other freshman could play point, 2 or 3 guard- very athletic and skilled dribbler

[amh63]

Interesting comments...wrt to Amherst.  "Undersized" guards...have to think about that when I remember several smallish guards playing at UMass and UConn leading their respective teams into the playoffs and one to the Title.
Agreed with Toad22 about the "quickness" factor.  I believe that the rotation at the end of the season will change from the early part of the season...based on how well players play on the defensive side as a team. 
I'm really intrigued with the possibility of Jamie Spears....quickness is a given..and his experience to distribute the ball and run a team.  He was a highly rated NE guard at St.Mark. Several people I spoke to all remember that his St. Mark team was loaded with talent.  Looking forward to see how the players mesh into a team going into the start of CAC play.

[P'bearfan]

In general, I'll take speed and shooting over size and rebounding every time.

Thanks for the clarification.  Not sure that this trade off exists with some teams in the conference (i.e. Trinity and Bates will be both big and athletic).  Should be interesting.