MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

NothingButNESCAC, I'm not sure I'd agree with you re: the comment about Hayden.

With Hayden, Williams is 13-6, without him, they went 2-3.  The Ephs average 75.5 points per game, overall.  In the five games without Hayden, excluding three overtime periods in those games (which skew scoring, obvoiusly), they averaged 66 ppg, so we are talking roughly a 10-11 ppg difference (since the 75.5 average goes up when you exclude those five games) in scoring output as a team.  Granted, that five game stretch featured some tough opponents, but this year, especially in NESCAC, almost any game is winnable and almost any game is loseable, so I give that a bit less credence than usual.  Hayden's first game back was Hamilton, which Williams lost (despite him playing very well), but he was clearly running on fumes towards the end of that game.  Since that time, the Ephs have been consistently solid on offense, excluding the miserable Wesleyan game, which was just one of those nights were EVERYTHING went wrong and things kind of snowballed.  Bates at Bates is really tough, that was a fired-up crowd and Bates played some stellar D that game, yet Williams still scored 68 thanks to Hayden's great shooting -- without him in that game, I think they lose by 15 or more.  They put up 80-plus on Midd, Tufts, and Conn, and would have scored over 90 vs. Castleton but for taking the starters out halfway through the second half. 

The difference is less dramatic than you would expect given how efficient Hayden has been and how much of the offense has revolved around him ... but I would not call that "basically the same."  I'm not saying that his presence should make Williams the favorite -- Bowdoin is a different team than they were in that game, as John Swords has been more assertive and of course Hausman has gone from very good offensive option to unstoppable superstar in just a few short weeks.  But I certainly like Williams' chances better in any game with Hayden than without him.  I think it will be a very close game that goes down to the wire on Saturday.   

[AmherstStudent05]

Not sure if anyone else was planning to do it, but I'll throw out some lines for tomorrow.

Colby +11 at Trinity: Trinity won by 9 the first time they played and I expect a similar game to that.

Williams +7.5 at Bowdoin: Both teams have matchup problems with the other so it will come down to who better exploits their advantages better. Also, Williams simply has to make shots.

Wesleyan +2.5 at Bates: Hardest game to put a line on because of how well Wesleyan played last weekend. Wesleyan also had the first game in hand before Safford went off in the second half. Actually think Wesleyan wins but this is where the line should be.

Amherst +4.5 at Tufts: Obviously it is going to be closer than last time. Still think Tufts should be favored especially if Sabety plays a little bit.

All four home teams are favored but not by much.

Nice work!  I really like Amherst and Bates at these lines.

[NothingButNESCAC]

With Hayden, Williams is 13-6, without him, they went 2-3.  The Ephs average 75.5 points per game, overall.  In the five games without Hayden, excluding three overtime periods in those games (which skew scoring, obvoiusly), they averaged 66 ppg, so we are talking roughly a 10-11 ppg difference (since the 75.5 average goes up when you exclude those five games) in scoring output as a team.  Granted, that five game stretch featured some tough opponents, but this year, especially in NESCAC, almost any game is winnable and almost any game is loseable, so I give that a bit less credence than usual. 

The difference is less dramatic than you would expect given how efficient Hayden has been and how much of the offense has revolved around him ... but I would not call that "basically the same."  I'm not saying that his presence should make Williams the favorite -- Bowdoin is a different team than they were in that game, as John Swords has been more assertive and of course Hausman has gone from very good offensive option to unstoppable superstar in just a few short weeks.  But I certainly like Williams' chances better in any game with Hayden than without him.  I think it will be a very close game that goes down to the wire on Saturday.   

Fair analysis NESCAC1. Two points in response.
1. I am basically excluding the early non-conference season in my analysis which makes the 13-6 record look a lot better. I think Williams was playing their best basketball in December too. I think their season is very different if Rooke-Ley stays healthy all season and they continue to grow and figure out how to play together. Instead, he got injured, Williams managed to tread water without him, and they have been only a little better since he got back. For whatever reason they simply have not gotten back to the same level they were playing at in December.

2. I have not seen Rooke-Ley as much as you have but he doesn't seem to me to be a great defender. The group of freshmen are all pretty good defenders and do a good job of sticking their nose in on defense. So while you might have demonstrated that Rooke-Ley really does make a big difference for them on offense, I feel like that gets offset some on the other end.

Like I said, having Rooke-Ley in the lineup terrifies me and they are certainly a better a team with him. However, the results do not bear that out as much as you might think.

[nescac1]

NBN, I think Hayden is a solid defender, not really a stand-out in either direction.  But his offense at this point in his career is SO far superior to whoever might replace him in the lineup, that it far outweighs any minor advantage that, say, Galvin offers on the defensive end. 

Your other comments are spot-on.  Williams has played brilliant basketball in spurts -- the Midd game, or the second half of the Tufts game, for example.  But against both Hamilton and Wesleyan, and in the first half of the Bowdoin game, they played terribly, sloppy turnovers, no rhythm at all on offense, defensive lapses, etc.  It's hard to figure, especially the Wesleyan game, which followed a stretch when things seemed to be falling into place.  Which makes them like pretty much every other team in NESCAC, this year ...  I mean, Amherst is the most extreme example -- they look like absolute world-beaters some nights, then get blown out of the gym by Trinity, Tufts and Midd, and barely escape Goucher.  The best hope for Williams is that they are now as healthy as they've been all year, and they are a very veteran team led by a trio of battle-tested seniors who have thrived in some big moments.  They will be ready tomorrow, I have little doubt.  But there is only so ready you can be when the other team's center is 7'0 tall, and yours is a generously-listed 6'7 with limited hops. 

[booyakasha]

A post on another board got me thinking. How about a list of best of food and beverage in the vicinity of each school. I know some of it would be repetitve, but I don't think I have heard much outside of AMH or WMS.

I'll start with Colby: There is a campus pub that got a nice renovation a few years back. It has a selection of drinks and some apps/pub fare. Otherwise, you need to drive off campus. My favorites were always:
Pub Fare/Beer/Pool: You Know Who's pub - Kevin Joseph, the owner is a nice guy to chat with.
Upscalse: The Last Unicorn
Sandwich/Lunch shop: http://www.riversidefarmmarket.com/

[toad22]

I am no good at looking objectively at games the Williams plays in. However, there are times that I feel uncomfortable before games. I don't feel at all uncomfortable about playing Bowdoin. They are a good team, but a team that can be exploited. As Mike Maker used to say all the time: "It's about you, it's not about the opponent". Against teams of rough comparability, if you play well you likely win. The Ephs lost last time, after playing the worst first half of basketball they played all year. I think they are going into the game feeling they have something to prove.

[Old Guy]

Also, been away for the last week and wanted to ask about the Sinnickson (sp?) commentary wrt the possibility of playing another year in d1.

I don't have a great read on his abilities, but by all accounts he is clearly a very good NESCAC player and gifted athletically. I find myself wondering how many coaches would want to take a flyer for only 1 year on a guy who is not going to be a complete stud at that level, or have some really special talent like being a specialist 3 point shooter or something. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Another option would be to head to whichever UAA school has the best returning team next year (with appropriate graduate degree program of course). That way you'd have a great school academically, get to travel around a bunch, and be a sure fire impact player on a team looking to compete at the national level.

Either way, I find myself envious of his position.

IMHO no reputable coach is going to take "a flyer".  There has to be a mutually agreeable fit for the transferee and the coach - that has confidence his team can mentally handle a transfer coming in getting significant PT.  Usually a "no guarantees or promises" agreement.  But in the right situation, it can definitely work.

This is just conjecture but Sinnickson also has a remaining year of baseball eligibility.  I've heard that the D1 schools that interest him (possibly among others) are URI and Stony Brook.  He's from Sands Point, NY.  He started every game as a freshman and sophomore.  His fy batting stats were unremarkable but solid enough for a freshman.  His sophomore season he batted .379.  Of the team's three HR he hit two of them and he stole 9 bases on 12 attempts.  On the defensive side he played a near flawless outfield handling 181 chances while committing only 2 errors in both seasons combined.  The Stony Brook site has not updated to include last season's results but the year before was rather dismal.  This season's roster lists five OF.  One junior, three sophs and a freshman.  Not exactly a starting outfield etched in stone.

[Old Guy]

Also, been away for the last week and wanted to ask about the Sinnickson (sp?) commentary wrt the possibility of playing another year in d1.

I don't have a great read on his abilities, but by all accounts he is clearly a very good NESCAC player and gifted athletically. I find myself wondering how many coaches would want to take a flyer for only 1 year on a guy who is not going to be a complete stud at that level, or have some really special talent like being a specialist 3 point shooter or something. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Another option would be to head to whichever UAA school has the best returning team next year (with appropriate graduate degree program of course). That way you'd have a great school academically, get to travel around a bunch, and be a sure fire impact player on a team looking to compete at the national level.

Either way, I find myself envious of his position.

IMHO no reputable coach is going to take "a flyer".  There has to be a mutually agreeable fit for the transferee and the coach - that has confidence his team can mentally handle a transfer coming in getting significant PT.  Usually a "no guarantees or promises" agreement.  But in the right situation, it can definitely work.

This is just conjecture but Sinnickson also has a remaining year of baseball eligibility.  I've heard that the D1 schools that interest him (possibly among others) are URI and Stony Brook.  He's from Sands Point, NY.  He started every game as a freshman and sophomore.  His fy batting stats were unremarkable but solid enough for a freshman.  His sophomore season he batted .379.  Of the team's three HR he hit two of them and he stole 9 bases on 12 attempts.  On the defensive side he played a near flawless outfield handling 181 chances while committing only 2 errors in both seasons combined.  The Stony Brook site has not updated to include last season's results but the year before was rather dismal.  This season's roster lists five OF.  One junior, three sophs and a freshman.  Not exactly a starting outfield etched in stone.

The term they use, in a complimentary way, about players like Dylan Sinnickson is "freak." He's probably the most athletic young man I've seen at Middlebury in four decades. In baseball, at 6'5", he's a joy to watch in centerfield running down fly balls (to repeat a phrase about Shoeless Joe Jackson, his glove is "where triples go to die"). As a soph, he batted lead-off and was the fastest player Coach Smith had seen at Midd in 25 years going from home to first. But he's not a polished stone; I'm not sure how much baseball he's played and time is passing.

I'm a fierce Panther partisan, and most years under these circumstances, my attention would have shifted entirely to baseball, but I'm fascinated by these match-ups this weekend. No game, except perhaps Colby-Trinity, is easy to call (which means, this year, Colby will probably win).

I too like the fact that the games are staggered. I will probably watch, primarily, Bowdoin-Williams and Bates-Wesleyan, but will be doing a lot of switching around. Young Guy is coming home to watch - he's very animated - and we'll throw it all up on the large screen.

I like the home teams in close games, though if the real Rob Lowe shows up for Williams and Amherst, they win. Bates will be a full house (in part because the house is so small), but it won't be crazy because students are on break (right?). Bates has played so well at home, and winning the close ones gives a team confidence, so valuable, in close games at the end. I saw Wes lose to Midd by 37, so don't have a very objective view of the Cards.

Rooke-Ley is a great player, no further discussion needed: the key for the Bills is the other guys. If I were Bowdoin I'd play a box & four - plant Swords in the middle and tell the other guys not to help when RL and Wohl dash to the hoop. If Kilcullen hits an early three, and makes Swords play him, that could help. Could be a fabulous game. Williams has to shoot the ball well, bring their "A" game.

Gentlemen, start your engines!

[Red1]

Just a quick clarification.  Tickets for all NESCAC tournament first round games are $3 for adults and $1 for students.  This is mandated by NESCAC.  It is not a school by school choice.  Tickets for the game at Bates are not free.  If you're a Bates student or employee the Bates athletic department will buy your ticket for you.  Due to Bates' trimester schedule, the students are currently on break, so the athletic department is probably trying to entice as many people as possible to attend in hopes of still having a sizable home crowd.

[amh63]

Red1....nice to point out that Bates gives a ticket break to students.  Believe Amherst does the same.  I recall that Seniors...old people like me...also get a break....even the very young.  During NCAA games Amherst provides such subsidies.  Often wonder if the ticket funds allows for Different level of refs for the games ...boy that would be nice...I know I should not go there.

[polbear73]

Red1....nice to point out that Bates gives a ticket break to students.  Believe Amherst does the same.  I recall that Seniors...old people like me...also get a break....even the very young.  During NCAA games Amherst provides such subsidies.  Often wonder if the ticket funds allows for Different level of refs for the games ...boy that would be nice...I know I should not go there.

I seem to recall from the NESCAC Handbook that gate receipts are split (majority going to home team) to help defray game and travel costs for the participants. Doubt any extra budget to upgrade refs.

[booyakasha]

I too like the fact that the games are staggered. I will probably watch, primarily, Bowdoin-Williams and Bates-Wesleyan, but will be doing a lot of switching around. Young Guy is coming home to watch - he's very animated - and we'll throw it all up on the large screen.

I like the home teams in close games, though if the real Rob Lowe shows up for Williams and Amherst, they win. Bates will be a full house (in part because the house is so small), but it won't be crazy because students are on break (right?). Bates has played so well at home, and winning the close ones gives a team confidence, so valuable, in close games at the end. I saw Wes lose to Midd by 37, so don't have a very objective view of the Cards.

Rooke-Ley is a great player, no further discussion needed: the key for the Bills is the other guys. If I were Bowdoin I'd play a box & four - plant Swords in the middle and tell the other guys not to help when RL and Wohl dash to the hoop. If Kilcullen hits an early three, and makes Swords play him, that could help. Could be a fabulous game. Williams has to shoot the ball well, bring their "A" game.

Gentlemen, start your engines!

This sounds like a great way to watch. I still haven't figured out how to plug my computer into my tv (I guess I've got a little Old Guy tendencies for someone graduating in the 2000's). I'll be sandwiched between a Williams Grad and Bowdoin Grad in Brunswick this afternoon, watching the Colby game on my phone. These next seven games are close to my favorite stretch of sports all year.

[P'bearfan]

Looking forward to the Bowdoin - Williams game this afternoon. 

This is likely to be a close game but I'm giving the edge to Bowdoin.  The P'bears have been playing very well lately and they have had several days rest.  I think a fresh Bowdoin team - especially Hausman and Swords - will be difficult to stop.  Of course if Williams gets hot from behind the arc it will get interesting.

[polbear73]

I am with you P'bearfan and wish all the teams good luck and a healthy first round.  Here's to a great day of basketball!

[lemonjello]

Looks like there are some technical difficulties on the Tufts-Amherst feed, hopefully that gets resolved soon.  11-7 Jeffs in the early going, Connor Green has 9, and no Hunter Sabety in the starting lineup for the Jumbos (can't tell if he's dressed or not from live stats).