MBB: NESCAC

[madzillagd]

In theory, you put your best players on the floor and typically you identify those players through their performance both in practice and in games.  We don't have stats for practice so we can only rely on stats for games.  I see comments from last night's Williams game about the need for more defense, better passing on offense, and better overall play in general.  I decided to put together a little analysis of which players could actually bring that better overall play.  I had my suspicions but thought I'd put it on paper.  What I looked at was very simple - I went by career numbers to compare the guards/wings shooting averages, as well as their Per 40 mins production on the other major statistical categories available on our stats site.  Career #s should help ease the statistical pain of slumps for some  players (aka Teal) versus just looking at this season alone.  8 categories: all pretty self explanatory... Field Goal %, 3 pt Field Goal %, Free Throw %, Reb Per 40 Mins, Assists Per 40 Min, Steals Per 40 Min, Blocks Per 40 Min, Points Per 40 Min.

I took a look at the guards/wings that are in the rotation in one fashion or another (in alpha order)...  Casey, Galvin, Greenman, Heskett, Kroot, Teal, Thoreson.  I  assigned each player a  letter (not in alpha order). For each category I listed the Top 3 players in that category, the results were as follows: 

(apologize for the formatting)
Top 3 in each category - all 7 players
FG%   3%   FT%   Reb/40   Ast/40   Stl/40   Blk/40 PP/40
F        F        F      E              E               D             B           G
E       G        B     B               G              E             G           C
G       D       A      C               B              B             E           A

We can look at this a few ways, but if we are looking for overall help to the team you'll likely want to focus on the players that provide help across multiple categories.

# of Categories Top 3

5 Categories:  B, E, G,
4 Categories: 
3 Categories: F
2 Categories: A, C, D

Another way to look at it is to assign a point system. I gave 3 points for a 1st place, 2 pts for 2nd place, and 1 point for 3rd place in a category. 

The totals:
A:  2   
B:  9
C:  3
D:  4
E:  8 
F:  9
G: 10

But not everybody was able to play in the last few games for Williams, so then we have to cut a few folks out of our analysis to show who is available to help out.  Same breakdown, but now we eliminate the 2 players that are hurt (Galvin, Greenman)

FG%   3%   FT%   Reb/40   Ast/40   Stl/40   Blk/40 PP/40
G       D      B      B             G             D               B         G
B       G      A      C             B              B              G          C
A       A      G      A             A              A              n/a        A


# of Categories Top 3

7 Categories: A
6 Categories: B
5 Categories: G
4 Categories:
3 Categories:
2 Categories: C, D

The point breakdown of those players with the same 3, 2, 1 system:
A: 8
B: 13
C:  4
D:  6
E: NA
F: NA
G: 14

A few comments...

- With a full squad available your most well-rounded players are B, E & G.  With a limited squad of the last few days those players are G, B, & A.
- With a full squad your most effective players are G, B, F.  With a limited squad your most effective players are G, B, A...but B & G are ahead by a considerable margin. 
- The only two players to land in all four lists, being both well-rounded and effective - with or without a full squad are B & G. 

Now that you've had a chance to guess who is who and see how they've performed on the court, let's take a look at how they stack up by minutes (this year only).

A   29.1 mpg
G   28.3 mpg
F   22.3 mpg
E   22.0 mpg
D   10.7 mpg
C   10.0 mpg
B   6.5 mpg

You read that correctly, the person getting the most mpg, A, is the person that is least effective of the seven.  The next, G, is the most effective and one of the most well-rounded so the minutes make sense.  The third and fourth, F and E, come in 4th  and 2nd  in effectiveness, with E being one of the more well-rounded players on the team.  D and C are neither effective, nor are they well-rounded so the drop in minutes make sense.  Finally we have player B, who despite being the second most effective player on the team, and also tied for most well-rounded comes in with the least amount of minutes by a wide margin.

If you are looking for a rotation that improves the defense, passes the ball, and takes advantage of well-rounded players that can do everything you're going to want to focus your minutes on G, B, & E.  Those 3 players provide the most return on their minutes in the most categories.  The players that you want to shy away from are A, C, D.  These players are not particularly well-rounded and they are not effective.  There is an alternative to what we've been seeing through the first month of the season but so far App has elected to stick with the same folks despite their predictable performance. I don't expect that to change although I would love to see a mix up because I think a 30 games is long enough to know what you are going to get from some players.  I'll go back into hibernation now.

[middhoops]

Amherst down by one  (35-34) to Babson on the road in what looks like a game that could be replayed in Salem come March.
LJs offense didn't flow for the LJs in the first half.  Not much post offense, either.
Babson has a deep group of talented scorers.
Second half should be a great one.
(Later.....)
With 5 minutes to go, Babson up by 4.  Amherst not playing close to their best but still in it with a really impressive Babson team.
(Later still.....)
Two heavyweights slugging it out.  Going to OT tied at 78.
(Aw, c'mon...)
LJs are missing three starters to fouling out but heading into double OT tied at 90.
(And finally.....)
Amherst outlasts Babson, riding Connor Green's 37 pts. to a 103-96 win.
What a game.

[pinseeking1]

Bates opens up a 28 point lead at the half behind the hottest shooting they've seen all year. The Bobcats are 12 for 18 from threes and hold a huge lead in rebounds against St Joseph's of Maine. They are finally seeing what happens when you hit from the outside and control the boards. The Delpeches are dominating inside.

[nescac24]

Babson was ranked No. 10 in country to start season. Now 6-3 with all 3 losses to NESCAC teams: at Bowdoin, at Tufts, tonight at home vs. Amherst.

[AmherstStudent05]

As midd hoops mentioned, Amherst pulls out an awesome 103-96 win over Babson in 2ot.  Entering the season Jeff fans highlighted our fantastic depth -- well, we needed every bit of that depth today.  JMac, George and Dawson all fouled out and Nabo continues to be out of the lineup (is he hurt or sick?)

Fortunately, Connor Green was in Classic form tonight. 37 points on 11-20 shooting (6-13 from 3) including some absolutely clutch threes in the second half as Amherst had to erase the 4-8 point advantage the Beavers held for most of that period. 

The game was officiated in an incredibly tight manner.  The teams combined for 66 free throws on the evening.  Frustratingly, Babson made only 2fgs in the final 7 minutes of the second half but still kept scoring because we kept sending them to the line.  I do think the game was called too tight, but it was consistent on both sides and we did not do a great job adjusting at all.  However, Green, Racy and Riopel nailed some clutch 3s when we absolutely needed to have them and we somehow were able to get a stop or two down the stretch.  Nice to avenge last year's loss (neither team can defend home court in this rivalry) and head into the holiday break with some momentum and good feeling.

Also, it is surely a feather in our cap that the NESCAC is now 3-0 against Babson this year (with all games decided in OT).

[amh63]

Middhoops.....nice post!  Watched every minute of the game and the 2OT.  Fortunately, it DID NOT go into another OT.
There were two All-Americans also battling it out and several transfer on both teams playing well.  At the end of the 2nd OT, Conklin, Amherst's D1 transfer was standing at center, while Nelsen, Babson's D2 transfer at center fouling out.  It was a nail biter. 
One error...Conner Green had 38 points.  Babson's All American was subbed in and out to avoid fouling out....he got Babson into the 2OT as he got his grove....was Babson's high scorer with 28, I believe.
Fans yelling at foul shooters and yet deadly quiet at other times.   Top announcer getting into the foul calls.....all the excitement of a Title game.
Babson has lost to all three CAC teams it has played to date.  May need to win the Newmac to get a post- season bid.  As the announcer stated...Babson's loses to date are better than many team wins.

Amh Stud05 posted Green had 37 points....must be true!  My bad Midhoops.  I definitely saw 38 on the scoreboard for Green

Nabo was on crutches at the Brandeis game....was in street clothes without the crutches tonight.

[AmherstStudent05]

According to the updated box score I am looking at now, Green finished with 39 points.  37, 38, 39....whatever.  It was a lot.  And we needed them all tonight.  When he is on his game like he was tonight he truly is one of a kind. 

[Vandy74]

According to the updated box score I am looking at now, Green finished with 39 points.  37, 38, 39....whatever.  It was a lot.  And we needed them all tonight.  When he is on his game like he was tonight he truly is one of a kind.

There would be a few less gray hairs on the heads of Amherst fans if he'd settled for 29.

[JEFFFAN]

According to the updated box score I am looking at now, Green finished with 39 points.  37, 38, 39....whatever.  It was a lot.  And we needed them all tonight.  When he is on his game like he was tonight he truly is one of a kind.

There would be a few less gray hairs on the heads of Amherst fans if he'd settled for 29.

Completely agree!  Short armed that last one in regulation or it would have been over 30 minutes earlier.

Having said that, it was a terrific D3 game down the stretch and into OT.   With three of Amherst's starters fouled out, it took the heralded depth that they have to win this game.   Amherst hit two tough threes - especially one by Conor Green with hands in his face, fading away - to turn a four point deficit into a lead.   A ton of fun to watch.

[AmherstStudent05]

As midd hoops mentioned, Amherst pulls out an awesome 103-96 win over Babson in 2ot.  Entering the season Jeff fans highlighted our fantastic depth -- well, we needed every bit of that depth today.  JMac, George and Dawson all fouled out and Nabo continues to be out of the lineup (is he hurt or sick?)

Fortunately, Connor Green was in Classic form tonight. 37 points on 11-20 shooting (6-13 from 3) including some absolutely clutch threes in the second half as Amherst had to erase the 4-8 point advantage the Beavers held for most of that period. 

The game was officiated in an incredibly tight manner.  The teams combined for 66 free throws on the evening.  Frustratingly, Babson made only 2fgs in the final 7 minutes of the second half but still kept scoring because we kept sending them to the line.  I do think the game was called too tight, but it was consistent on both sides and we did not do a great job adjusting at all.  However, Green, Racy and Riopel nailed some clutch 3s when we absolutely needed to have them and we somehow were able to get a stop or two down the stretch.  Nice to avenge last year's loss (neither team can defend home court in this rivalry) and head into the holiday break with some momentum and good feeling.

Also, it is surely a feather in our cap that the NESCAC is now 3-0 against Babson this year (with all games decided in OT).

I completely overlooked that we are playing Lasell this Saturday (I believe, historically, we typically play them after the break).  After opening the season with 3 losses, the Lasers have won six straight, including wins at Brandeis and RIC.  I trust Coach Hixon and Co. won't make the same mistake of (inadvertently) overlooking them as I did! 

[P'bearfan]

Bowdoin hosts the Beavers from UMF tonight at 7 pm.

This will be the last game before winter break but interestingly not the last game of 2015.  UMF brings in a 0-7 record on the year with only 1 game ending with a deficit of less than 10 points.  The foul line seems to be the only place from which the Beavers shoot well (70%); from behind the arc they're only 28% and only 34% from the field.  From a size perspective they should match up fairly well with Bowdoin so it could be an interesting battle on the boards.

Looking forward to watching the web cast (this constitutes and exciting night in our house!).  Hopefully the Polar Bears will stay sharp and not look past this game - a real risk given that finals and some time at home are both on the horizon.

GoUBears!!

[amh63]

Several loose end comments on the "Thriller in Newton?" ....Babson Park doesn't sound right too...where is Babson located?
It must be noted that Green and Babson's JR All-American Flannery were their teams' leading rebounders...both in double figures.  Believe that Babson's  2nd top scorer started to hit his 3s after JMac fouled out.  JMac, Amherst's best defender last season was guarding the All American....both the same size, 6'5" and body built...JMac is listed about 15 pounds heavier this year.
Looking over the " cold" stats, the one that jumped out was the foul shooting accuracy.  I posted earlier that last season's foul shooting by Amerst was disappointing.  It can be said that the game was determined on the foul line....Amherst's foul shooting has been better to date and was better last night than Babson's. Other stats were overall about even between the teams.
Close game...great game....still have my grey hairs.
Nabo seems to be wearing a boot on one of his feet.

Ugh, forgot about the next game on Sat.  Committed to a 4 PM  Piano Recital...Reception following

[booyakasha]

Babson is in Wellesley I believe.

[30 for 30]

For stat geeks; early season results for Robinson and Hart. Both over 21 ppg per 40, high performance per 100 possessions, very high O performance and high win shares per 40. Hart stymied on PT by two four year guards one of which starts for Argentina Olympic team. Based on performance minutes likely to grow. GW currently 11 RPI.
Robinson has been great. UM certainly certainly needs him. All those NBA defections have hurt the UM roster depth.

After 9 games impressive results for both while making this big transition

GW stats

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/george-washington/2016.html#per_min::none

UM stats

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/michigan/2016.html

[amh63]

Booyakasha.....thanks!   I would be in trouble with all sorts of PC groups if I used "Thriller in Wellseley".....oops just did