MBB: NESCAC

[Old Guy]

Middlebury ran them out of the gym - early.  Time to re-group.  Learning to win road games begins when the visitors play with force early, find their sea legs and withstand the home team's adrenaline, energy, intensity, etc. Ham did not move the ball as they usually do. As the Midd lead increased, Ham was less comfortable with every possession. I think Ham was surprised by Midd's ability to push pace.  Of course, with Midd shooting 62% from the field or whatever it was, the rout was sealed. #2 for Midd was unconscious from everywhere.

On to Maine.

62% from the field; 59.3% from 3; 91.7 from the line; 26 assists, 12 steals; 42-27 rebounding edge. Not sure we can play better than that.

[lumbercat]

Well said Pinseeker.
Bates can cause problems for a lot of teams from here but their fate will be determined by a tough trip next weekend on the road against Amherst and Trinity. It will be a test.

[grabtherim]

[quote author=BigMike33 link=topic=4491.msg1787866#msg1787866 date=148564000
But you know the point totals in box score tell the whole tale of all these games... if only those lazy generalists could actually watch a game. If you watch games...you actually see rather than regurgitate.
[/quote]

Maybe it's just me, but can you explain what you mean by this? I dont understand what you are saying.

[Cards Fan]

Looks like we will have 9 contenders for the playoffs, as Bowdoin and Colby have virtually eliminated themselves. I give 2 teams chances to be that 3rd team - Conn and Middlebury. Hamilton has two tough games, but two against Colby and Bowdoin, and should make the tournament as an 8 seed or higher. Wes would have a shot to lose out, but has faced their toughest challenges thus far, and should go at least 2 of their last 3. Colby will make them sweat at least, as thy have dominated Wes recently.

I would consider it almost a lock that Colby and Bowdoin are eliminated, and Conn College and Williams will fight it out for the last seed.  However, the Ephs have a rough schedule ahead, against a ton of talented teams. If they can't overcome the Camels, they may well not make it.

[Cards Fan]

Looks like we will have 9 contenders for the playoffs, as Bowdoin and Colby have virtually eliminated themselves. I give 2 teams chances to be that 3rd team - Conn and Middlebury.

Sorry about that. Conn and Williams.

[jumpshot]

As pointed out last week, a sample confirms that NESCAC is defaulting to a three-point shooting league, and not as accurately as one might expect.

In yesterday's games (plus one recent Williams game since the Ephs didn't play on Saturday), for example, 37% of the shots taken (274 of 745) were three-point attempts with the teams making 102 or 37%.

Of the twelve teams in the sample, half individually took right at 37% of their shots as threes, two took over 50% (Colby vs. Bowdoin and Williams vs. Mid), and only two fewer than 30% of total shots (Trinity and the plague which usually shoots more).

A team needs to make 40% of three-point attempts for threes to be as productive as twos (without considering other impacts or tactics).

A larger sample is likely to align with these metrics.

The elegance and effectiveness of a mid-range game enables several of the consistent scorers currently playing in NESCAC to have disproportionate impact.

[ronk]

As pointed out last week, a sample confirms that NESCAC is defaulting to a three-point shooting league, and not as accurately as one might expect.

In yesterday's games (plus one recent Williams game since the Ephs didn't play on Saturday), for example, 37% of the shots taken (274 of 745) were three-point attempts with the teams making 102 or 37%.

Of the twelve teams in the sample, half individually took right at 37% of their shots as threes, two took over 50% (Colby vs. Bowdoin and Williams vs. Mid), and only two fewer than 30% of total shots (Trinity and the plague which usually shoots more).

A team needs to make 40% of three-point attempts for threes to be as productive as twos (without considering other impacts or tactics).

A larger sample is likely to align with these metrics.

The elegance and effectiveness of a mid-range game enables several of the consistent scorers currently playing in NESCAC to have disproportionate impact.

Why? I'd think they'd only have to make 2/3 of their 2-pt % to be equally effective; I don't think 60% 2-pt shooting is realistic for a norm.

[amh63]

Had a busy day switching between a number of D3 and D1 games online.  My general comment follows.
In the Bates game, the video coverage was great...good crowd but not packed.  Tufts made one last run in the last few minutes led by Vinny Pace...his outside shots did not drop and Tank was blanketed.
Palleschi was sitting on the bench....no crutches or sign of a brace under his uniform...but right leg appeared stiff when he sat down.  Tufts comes to Amherst next weekend. 
Yes, watched a bit of the Amherst vs Trinity game.  It was closer than the score.  Amherst started slow but finished strong.  Two encouraging trends....better foul shooting and defense and more inside points.  Yes, that is three   Low scores indicate more defensive efforts by both teams.  Amherst shot 80 plus from the foul line as Trinity fouled to get the ball back.  Amherst just slowed their offense down in the last few minute.
Did drop in on the Midd game but the outcome was too evident to hold my interest.
Number of other ranked D3 teams lost to unranked teams yesterday.  TCNJ beat a ranked team.  The HC of TCNJ was a player on the '07 Amherst Title team and the son of a former poster here...Hoya74.  Happy for both of them.  The TCNJ HBC must finally be getting Jersey players taller than himself .
Last comment.  Decided to watch the UWSP vs UWRiver Falls game at Stevens Point.  Midwest caliber/style BB.  Possible opponent for Nescac teams in the post season.  UWSP is far from its glory days...remember them coming into Salem with multiple Nat. Titles.  River Falls is now the top dog and highly ranked.  Discipline offense that wants to score inside.  Tough defense.  Good passing team that does NOT have much of an outside game if any...the outside game that seems to prevail in today's top D1 teams.  I maybe mistaken  when I say that Nescac teams match up well with River Falls.

[lumbercat]

Great game at venerable Alumni Gym yesterday. A big day for Bates. Below is link to the highlights.


https://t.co/xiLbJ1skeB   

[jumpshot]

Ronk, as one with your knowledge of basketball, you know well that the  issue is most points produced from a situational and dynamic mix and volume of shots attempted and made, not simply one static variable.

[BigMike33]

Grab the rim

We have had a lot of names thrown out for Freshman contributors and Best Freshman in NESCAC.  My point was, it is easy to pull highest scoring freshman from each team based on box score & season totals. But points scored require an additional analysis of time, score, situation. separate wheat from chaff. Best analyzed through watching the games.

Kena Gilmour analysis, great slasher, very athletic, can finish at rim.  His shot outside of 15 feet....very suspect.  Folger played him to drive as he should & Gilmour was forced to pass quite a bit mid 2nd half when a run was needed to get under 15 point deficit.

Folger had a couple of turnovers trying to play faster than normal because Gilmour was defending.  Slight edge to Folger this day. The body of work thus far favors Gilmour. Gilmour & Folger still the head of freshman class.

We heard about Eric Savage from Tufts.  Big game at Bates...16 minutes, 4 turnovers, 3 fouls, 2 points on 1 for 4 shooting

[ContinentalDomer]

In terms of the frosh, sure - looking at games and data goes without saying. Having seen every one of KG's games and having looked at his game log, your assessment of "very suspect" is remarkably inaccurate.  Sure, 36% on 3 pointers is not top shelf.  But he has consistently shown touch from deep (mid-range and 3 pointers).  That's piece of his game will only improve. Recently, KG buried Williams with 3 pointers. KG has also made a number of clutch 17-18 foot jumpers to start runs or end droughts in tight games. By your own analysis, it sounds like Folger respected KG's long range game by forcing him to drive. One game and one page view does not provide enough data points to analyze trends. In the end, they're both nice players. KG has clearly had more of an opportunity than MF to demonstrate offensive prowess. Advantage KG for end of the year stuff, but no disrespect to MF as the kid can play and has an excellent upside.

Grab the rim

We have had a lot of names thrown out for Freshman contributors and Best Freshman in NESCAC.  My point was, it is easy to pull highest scoring freshman from each team based on box score & season totals. But points scored require an additional analysis of time, score, situation. separate wheat from chaff. Best analyzed through watching the games.

Kena Gilmour analysis, great slasher, very athletic, can finish at rim.  His shot outside of 15 feet....very suspect.  Folger played him to drive as he should & Gilmour was forced to pass quite a bit mid 2nd half when a run was needed to get under 15 point deficit.

Folger had a couple of turnovers trying to play faster than normal because Gilmour was defending.  Slight edge to Folger this day. The body of work thus far favors Gilmour. Gilmour & Folger still the head of freshman class.

We heard about Eric Savage from Tufts.  Big game at Bates...16 minutes, 4 turnovers, 3 fouls, 2 points on 1 for 4 shooting

[Bucket]

We heard about Eric Savage from Tufts.  Big game at Bates...16 minutes, 4 turnovers, 3 fouls, 2 points on 1 for 4 shooting

And I am assuming your assessment of Mr. Savage is based on watching his play vs. Bates, and not simply a regurgitation of his statline.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Believe it or not... there is just one more month remaining in Division III basketball's regular season. In other words, time is running out for teams looking to play in March. One month from today, most conference champions will be crowned and the conversation will be who may be in and will be out of the NCAA championship tournament.

So as the season head's for the home stretch, what programs will we be talking about in a month? Who may emerge from some tight conferences races to prove they are the best?

Sunday night on Hoopsville, Dave hopes to turn the spotlight on a few programs others may not be paying attention to as much. Tufts' men's program is seperating themselves from the rest of the NESCAC, Elmhurst women are making the CCIW race more interesting than expected, LeTourneau men have turned their program around and now lead their ASC division, and Montclair State women have a battle on their hands in the NJAC.

Also on Sunday night, we head to the WBCA Center Court and talk to one of the up and coming women's basketball coaches. Already honored for his success at a young age, what has Alex Richay done to turn the Oglethorpe program around?

Dave will also preview the upcoming annual Hoopsville Marathon and give an update to this season's fundraising efforts.

Tune in starting at 7:00 PM ET to watch the show live here: http://www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2016-17/jan29 (or via Facebook Live). If you miss any of it, you can watch the show On Demand or listen (download) the podcast.

Don't forget to contribute to the new "Hoopsville Mailbag" segment. Email questions you may have to hoopsville@d3hoops.com. Dave will answer them tonight or on a future show.

Guests schedule (in order of appearance):
- Bob Sheldon, No. 4 Tufts men's coach
- Tethanie Carriollo, Elmhurst women's coach
- Alex Richay, Oglethorpe women's coach (WBCA Center Court)
- Dan Miller, LeTourneau men's coach
- Karin Harvey, No. 18 Montclair State women's coach

You can also tune into the podcast(s) after the show has aired:
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iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/hoopsville/id1059517087

Don't forget you can always interact with us:
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[P'bearfan]

Just back from my trip up to Waterville where Bowdoin lost a head scratcher to Colby: 82-87.

In the first half Bowdoin solidly outplayed Colby.  The Polar Bears had a 15 point lead late in the second that narrowed to a 7 point lead at the break as Bowdoin had several starters on the bench to protect them from foul trouble.  At this point the game felt very similar to the victory against Williams. 

Unfortunately, the wheels came off in the second half as Colby scored 55 points to secure the win.  Bowdoin's defense wasn't great in the first half - a few too many break downs in rotations - and this go worse in the second half.  Credit definitely goes to the Mules' offense which ran many successful screens to free up scorers but mainly Bowdoin just wasn't as disciplined on D as they have been lately and they paid the price.  Also, Bowdoin's offense, which had been sparked by Jack Bohrs in the first half, was a bit out of synch in the second.   It seemed (and I could be wrong) that Bowdoin didn't even attempt a 3 pointer until late in the second half. 

When you look at the final stats Bowdoin had 4 players in double figures: Bohrs (24); Reynolds (16); Simonds (13); O'Neill (12 plus 11 rebounds); Fuller (11).  With that type of offensive balance the P'bears are usually in very good shape.  Unfortunately it wasn't enough yesterday.

Hopefully the Polar Bears can regroup quickly.  The face off against Husson at home on Tuesday and then next weekend they have tough challenges against Hamilton and Middlebury during Senior weekend.

GoUBears!!