MBB: NESCAC

grabtherim · November 02, 2017, 08:37:08 AM

I believe the pre-season rankings don't mean that much. In fact, looking at the big picture, I think it's better to be unranked at this point or at the lower end of the top 25. Teams on top really have no where to go but down. Not many bigger Middlebury partisans out there than me. That said, an honest look at what they lost (1700 point scorer and assists/floor general) and what they return (great young talent and battle tough senior guard) in my mind may well raise more questions than it did last season or during other strong runs the team has had before under Jeff Brown. I'm not drawing any conclusions on this year's team, there's plenty of time for that later. It's more of a wait and see for me, but pre-season #8 in the country? Really? I hope the "experts" know a lot more than I do and the last poll of the season in March has them higher than this one.

nescac1 · November 02, 2017, 10:30:48 AM

Speaking of Middlebury, they have a very unusual schedule this year. Perhaps recognizing that a lot of young guys will need to play, Coach Brown scheduled a generally weak and very thin slate of games in the first semester -- with Endicott likely very down, at Skidmore looks like by far the toughest of the eight games. Should give the team a chance to build confidence and momentum. And with so few games, that will allow for a lot of extra practice time for the young guys early in the year. But MAN January and early February are packed with games, and mostly tough games at that -- the NESCAC schedule, Albertus Magnus, Swarthmore, and Keene State, along with three easier games. Maybe those last three games are sort of viewed essentially as practices. But 16 games in a 40 day stretch is tough. Compare that to Williams (13 games) or Tufts (12 games) and it is a stark difference. I'd worry a bit about getting worn down ...

amh63 · November 02, 2017, 10:51:36 AM

Young players need floor time experience...and they do not get tired

Do not believe HBC Hixon is worried about pre- season rankings. Coaches working for the rankings ar the end of the regular season as they seek a spot in the post season festivities.
Amherst's has a nice article wrt new asst. coach on its basketball website. Amherst's update of its website shows only three coaches and no update of roster on day 2 of former practice.

gordonmann · November 02, 2017, 12:22:02 PM

Question for the board: when was the last time Amherst started the season not ranked in the top 25? I'm guessing that it's been a while.

Answer for the board: It's all in our super fancy new Top 25 archive!

http://d3hoops.com/top25/men/archive

BigMike33 · November 02, 2017, 01:29:35 PM

Grab the Rim

Don't worry about rankings, enjoy our excellent Basketball program. Keep us warm all winter.

No doubt, these rankings are meaningless, except that these 3 teams in Top 10 says more about talent in our league , coaches, style of play. Last year, opened eyes nationally on NESCAC, this is the pendulum swing. I believe in Williams & Middlebury, not Tufts

Middlebury luckily has Daly to run show. Young guards will need lots of time and seasoning. Coach Brown plays 5D chess, NESCAC Coach of Year, schedule is purposeful, recruiting as well (all guards)

Every team is different, Middlebury was such a wonderful passing team last year which will improve this year. They may benefit from a more balanced scoring offense where slowing down a main scorer is not an opposing team strategy. Remember that Elite Eight game, heavy legs on a back to back for both starting back-court players

Now on Match-up side, Williams & Middlebury can create interesting mismatches with height. Scadlock & Folger at 3 are significant mismatches, definitely in NESCAC, nationally as well. Middlebury's big rotation is well-coached (Coach Reilly) solid unit. Williams Big depth is superior to all.

NESCAC defensive focus makes this not your Warrior's NBA, so guards cancel each other out, which is why two teams with Superior bigs were in Elite Eight. Tufts lost Palleschi and had half of Vinny Pace which dropped their Bigs performance below Williams & Middlebury.

Sweet 16 games: Williams Bigs depth easily put the 1 Susquehanna Big on bench with fouls, they cruised. Middlebury Bigs just dominated Endicott, went up 39 in 2nd half, it was a clinic because they were outplayed by Endicott bigs in regular season in December, before Middlebury Bigs emerged in January as a force. This was their test game.

Williams & Middlebury have deep talented teams.

grabtherim · November 02, 2017, 03:57:43 PM

Sort of thought I made it clear my whole point was I don't care or worry about rankings, especially this one. The only one that matters to me comes out after the last game in Salem. I do appreciate your analysis. Lots of thought, time and effort. As for me, I think it's way too early to be that precise or sure of myself in the predicting game. I prefer to watch the kids play a bit first.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · November 02, 2017, 04:14:37 PM

Quote from: grabtherim on November 02, 2017, 03:57:43 PM
Sort of thought I made it clear my whole point was I don't care or worry about rankings, especially this one. The only one that matters to me comes out after the last game in Salem. I do appreciate your analysis. Lots of thought, time and effort. As for me, I think it's way too early to be that precise or sure of myself in the predicting game. I prefer to watch the kids play a bit first.

LOL I do laugh at your notion you don't care about the rankings. I can think of several occasions where you have chastised voters for not voting for your team (AMC, right?) at all or high enough.

Just wanted to give you a bit a poke with that one.

gordonmann · November 02, 2017, 04:26:55 PM

Grab the rim is a Middlebury fan.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · November 02, 2017, 04:50:02 PM

Damn it! It worked so well in my head! LOL

I will wait for when he hates where Middlebury is ranked.

I kid... I seriously kid. Just trying to make light of things.

grabtherim · November 02, 2017, 08:12:33 PM

Appreciate the attempt Dave. I'm sure I will give you ample opportunity to get me as the season roils on. To me, especially early rankings are less than an educated guess. What I do take note of in looking at Middlebury's schedule is they seem to have made it more challenging pre-NESCAC than in past seasons. I would be interested if others agree with my take on that. Personally, I like it. Challenge your guys. See what you have.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · November 02, 2017, 11:34:11 PM

Quote from: grabtherim on November 02, 2017, 08:12:33 PM
Appreciate the attempt Dave. I'm sure I will give you ample opportunity to get me as the season roils on. To me, especially early rankings are less than an educated guess. What I do take note of in looking at Middlebury's schedule is they seem to have made it more challenging pre-NESCAC than in past seasons. I would be interested if others agree with my take on that. Personally, I like it. Challenge your guys. See what you have.

You may think it is less than an educated guess... but I, and other voters, put in too much work and hours looking over the information and doing whatever else to learn more (I make phone calls, text individuals, emails, etc.) to have it be less than educated.

toad22 · November 03, 2017, 12:57:53 AM

I am very impressed that most national champions are ranked quite highly in the preseason poll. Sure, there are always teams that emerge from, seemingly nowhere, to go deep in the tournament, but most have been spotted, quite early, by the voters.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · November 03, 2017, 08:32:31 AM

Quote from: grabtherim on November 02, 2017, 08:12:33 PM
Appreciate the attempt Dave. I'm sure I will give you ample opportunity to get me as the season roils on. To me, especially early rankings are less than an educated guess. What I do take note of in looking at Middlebury's schedule is they seem to have made it more challenging pre-NESCAC than in past seasons. I would be interested if others agree with my take on that. Personally, I like it. Challenge your guys. See what you have.

The problem is really that each year is different. Pre-season rankings are, more or less, what we think these teams would've done last year if they had the talent they'll have this year. Of course, this is a different year - and it's pretty tough to take in all the other factors we can't really know about. Besides chemistry, it's impossible to know if the guy who gained a year of experience, two inches, and ten pounds of muscle also got dumped by his fiance and won't even start by January. We can't know the 15th guy in the bench who graduated with less than 100 total minutes in four years was also the heart and soul of the team.

Things change - we can only take what we know and guess.

Of course, in d3, pretty much every poll is just an educated guess until they all play each other in March.

middhoops · November 03, 2017, 09:14:16 AM

Quote from: grabtherim on November 02, 2017, 08:12:33 PM
Appreciate the attempt Dave. I'm sure I will give you ample opportunity to get me as the season roils on. To me, especially early rankings are less than an educated guess. What I do take note of in looking at Middlebury's schedule is they seem to have made it more challenging pre-NESCAC than in past seasons. I would be interested if others agree with my take on that. Personally, I like it. Challenge your guys. See what you have.

Yes, I like it, too.
Of course it's mostly due to the fact that a surprisingly large number of former opponents dropped Middlebury from their schedules.
nescac1's previous assessment was right on, I think. More practice time for the freshmen guards early in the season will help.
As for wearing down, Jack Daly is likely to be the only guy who plays +/-35 minutes a game. Lots of young players competing for playing time.
With 19 year old kids I'd expect 16 games in a month to put more strain on academics than quadriceps.

grabtherim · November 03, 2017, 10:06:39 AM

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 02, 2017, 11:34:11 PM
Quote from: grabtherim on November 02, 2017, 08:12:33 PM
Appreciate the attempt Dave. I'm sure I will give you ample opportunity to get me as the season roils on. To me, especially early rankings are less than an educated guess. What I do take note of in looking at Middlebury's schedule is they seem to have made it more challenging pre-NESCAC than in past seasons. I would be interested if others agree with my take on that. Personally, I like it. Challenge your guys. See what you have.

You may think it is less than an educated guess... but I, and other voters, put in too much work and hours looking over the information and doing whatever else to learn more (I make phone calls, text individuals, emails, etc.) to have it be less than educated.

A bit touchy for a guy who tried to make a joke at my expense. That's OK, I don't mean to minimize your work, texts and emails, I will concede it is not less than an educated guess, it is indeed educated. Out of curiosity, I'm curious, since you have been doing these opening season rankings, how many of the the top 5 ranked teams from the 1st poll went on to win a national championship? I would certainly guess a repeat winner like Wash U. and others for sure.