MBB: NESCAC

[BigMike33]

Fan of NESCAC

Versatile bigs was not the Polar Bear point. He stated Bigs bombing from outside exist but no true centers
He was speaking of true post centers which game has moved away from.

Versatile big = Stretch 4

[BigMike33]

Agree with Amherst sentiment on Dawson.

The few times I saw him play, he would go through periods of being disinterested, them he would also force a shot where a teammate had an open look. He played frustrated.

To me this defines someone who does not trust his teammates and their talent.  Addition by subtraction.

[D3HforLyfe]

As I tried to mention in my first post on Sunday, I hope everyone recognizes that my posts are meant to be in good fun and are simply my perspective on this great league that we all love.  They are my best guess and are what I truly think will happen, but they are, at the end of the day, nothing more than a guess and (as some of you have correctly pointed out) really have no bearing on anything. Just a fun way to distract me from the other, less fun and more serious, parts of my day-to-day life. And, for that, I am appreciative of everyone on this board.

In terms of the comments towards big men in basketball, I disagree that they are becoming obsolete in college hoops. Yes, in the NBA - due to analytics proving threes, pacing/spacing, no 'tough 2s', and defensive versatility are a more efficient way to play - there has been a movement away from old-school, physical big men. Rule changes that opened up the lane and made perimeter defense much harder in the NBA (no hands at all when guarding the ball) also played a role in this movement. However, I'm not sure this is entirely the case at the college level. Games during the end of the season in tournament play are still won on defense and on the glass. In fact, Jay Bilas wrote an awesome article that came out earlier today, more importantly, on the much-needed makeover for the corrupt NCAA, but also highlighting how this a year of great big men in college hoops - http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21250068/the-bilas-opus-gives-everything-need-know-college-basketball. All in all, i think the NBA and college hoops are very different and that there is still a place for great (old-school) bigs at this level.

[BigMike33]

Ephs fans....calm down

I put out one potential weakness, a more esoteric than substantive one. Be honest, Aronowitz always provided steady leadership.

I think his successor is that little point guard who played a gritty Elite 8 game against Middlebury. He impressed me with his courage and decision making.

Middlebury lost that game because Williams switched 3 point strategies and Middlebury's defense did not adjust. Kudos to Williams coach.

Williams in first 2 Middlebury games employs their Drive and kick, helter skelter cutting to get open 3's. By 2nd half of NESCAC championship, Middlebury figured out how to defend it.

Elite 8 Game, Williams uses a swing the ball on perimeter with post entry so an inside out approach with more passing than driving.
Middlebury perimeter defenders slid towards post to, help defend, which gave us the Bobby Casey show.
You have to make Williams hit contested 2's versus uncontested 3's. Especially with Middlebury's 4 big rotation.
This was a significant tactical mistake and the difference between 2 excellent teams that night.

Middlebury had a huge emotional game against Endicott, the night before. Tough to reclaim the emotional high. Williams seemed to be in same boat for Final 4 game after super emotional Middlebury game.  The human element....which is why games must be played.

[middhoops]

From D3HforLyfe:
"All in all, i think the NBA and college hoops are very different and that there is still a place for great (old-school) bigs at this level."

Very true.
Great old school bigs are hard to find.  Unless you are Williams these days. 
The Ephs have so many quality 5s that they can't find enough minutes for them.  Expect teams to run like crazy and launch a lot of treys when visiting Chandler Gym.

[BigMike33]

D3forLife

I agree with you.  There is room for big man.

Problem is role models. Up and coming talent plays the way they visualize from watching the professionals play.

So if no true posts in NBA, it eventually trickles down to college via young kids emulating Stretch 4's of today
Olajuwon, Ewing, Jabbar....who is todays role model, Dwight Howard, he's be traded many times because his role is expendable.

[P'bearfan]

Interesting discussion of big men.  It's a huge luxury to have a true 5 who you can throw the ball to and, six out of ten times that he is single-covered, he will either make a basket in the lane or draw a foul.  NESCAC does seem especially bereft in that department heading into the year.  Hugh O'Neil and Andrew Groll are the two returning true 5's who had the highest scoring average last year, but neither exactly put the fear of god into a defense when they get the ball with their back to the basket.  I think given more opportunities, Karpowicz is the one obvious guy in the league who might have that skill set -- his post scoring acumen is uncanny. 

But really, this is not unique to NESCAC.  Every dude who is over 6'6 used to work primarily on their post moves, and few could shoot a lick outside fifteen feet.  Now, they all want to handle the ball and launch 3's.  That's just the direction hoops has gone, and there is no reason to think it's won't filter down to Division 3 ... the back-to-the-basket post-up game is slowly dying.

Keep in mind that Hugh O'Neil was primarily a volleyball player and took up basketball relatively late.  He has great athleticism and made big strides between his first and second seasons.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him take his game to another level this year and be a more significant offensive presence / threat.

[P'bearfan]

Here's the Bowdoin roster -- noticeable is the absence of speedy PG Tim Ahn, who had seemed like the PG of the future . .

My understanding is that Tim Ahn decided to take a semester abroad this year.  Disappointing as he is a very talented PG.  Hope the experience abroad is a good one for him.

[middhoops]

Here's the Bowdoin roster -- noticeable is the absence of speedy PG Tim Ahn, who had seemed like the PG of the future . .

My understanding is that Tim Ahn decided to take a semester abroad this year.  Disappointing as he is a very talented PG.  Hope the experience abroad is a good one for him.

Can't remember the last time I heard that about a point guard at Duke.

[nescac1]

To be fair, Middhoops, I can't recall the last time a Nescac starting player went abroad for a semester.  Very uncommon.  Although I kind of wonder why more Nescac stars don't do junior years abroad, retain a year of eligibility, and leverage that into a free year of grad school (or a paid year of Ivy grad school) in D1.  There are at least 2-3 Nescac players per year I'd say that as a fifth year senior could be a serious asset for a lower tier D1 program.  Not to give anyone any ideas !!  Will Mah be back next semester?  That would give the Bears a boost.  In the meantime Bohrs and frosh Matte should form asolid PG duo for the PBears. 

Hugh O'Neil is definitely a big emerging talent.  I don't think of him as a classic back to the basket post.  But I've barely seen him so I could be wrong.  I think the pendulum will swing back eventually.  But I do fear that every tall kid now is modeling his game after Durant rather than Olajuwon or McHale.  Look at Jahlil Okafor — that dude has great post moves and can't even get on the court.  Sure it's the NBA but as noted by others everything flows down. We are gonna see young bigs more and more flowing into two camps: hyper athletic dive 5's, and floor-stretchers. But perhaps D3 can be the last refuge for the old school bruiser with great post moves and footwork.  That takes hours and hours of practice and probably is not as fun as jacking threes, alas. 

Oh, and Dave, no worries — busy week indeed!

[BigMike33]

Amherst fans,

You should make note of the Middlebury Zach Baines transfer when thinking of Dawson. Addition by subtraction.

Look at result, Baines was hesitant on offense with his passing.  He transfers to West Coast at Holiday break.

Middlebury creates a 4 man big rotation which allows McCord & Folger playing time to develop and emerge. McCord has his breakout game at Tufts becomes starter. Folger improves by tournament time to be double double threat off bench.

Middlebury is now able to execute a dual opposite low post big arrangement, with high screen pick & rolls which provides space for Brown to drive, St. Amour to tee it up,  & Daly to weakside rebound because Bigs are a consistent threat (4 man rotation) with a purpose.

Probably more circumstances, than Baines fault, since Daly, Brown, St. Amour had to play,  Baines had to play 4 & could never really adjust to that responsibility in the offense

Middlebury becomes the Top Assist team in NESCAC due to superior passing without the one player who hesitated on pass/ shoot just enough to reduce the full potential of the offense.   
Middlebury became Top Offense in NESCAC too.

[BigMike33]

Tufts analysis,

A lot of talent but.....do not match up well with Middlebury or Williams.  Pat Racy is now their only big.

Without depth up front, Tufts will be worn down by the Top Teams. Garrett at the 4 would reduce his mismatch value at 3.  I know Racy well from his Connecticut high school period. Good player, needs to really take a leap forward.

What % will Vinny Pace be at for season. He is an electric player. His ability to make it through a full season is questionable given his knee situation.

It is Williams & Middlebury, then a little drop-off, then a cliff.

[P'bearfan]

To be fair, Middhoops, I can't recall the last time a Nescac starting player went abroad for a semester.  Very uncommon.  Although I kind of wonder why more Nescac stars don't do junior years abroad, retain a year of eligibility, and leverage that into a free year of grad school (or a paid year of Ivy grad school) in D1.  There are at least 2-3 Nescac players per year I'd say that as a fifth year senior could be a serious asset for a lower tier D1 program.  Not to give anyone any ideas !!  Will Mah be back next semester?  That would give the Bears a boost.  In the meantime Bohrs and frosh Matte should form asolid PG duo for the PBears. 

Hugh O'Neil is definitely a big emerging talent.  I don't think of him as a classic back to the basket post. But I've barely seen him so I could be wrong.  I think the pendulum will swing back eventually.  But I do fear that every tall kid now is modeling his game after Durant rather than Olajuwon or McHale.  Look at Jahlil Okafor — that dude has great post moves and can't even get on the court.  Sure it's the NBA but as noted by others everything flows down. We are gonna see young bigs more and more flowing into two camps: hyper athletic dive 5's, and floor-stretchers. But perhaps D3 can be the last refuge for the old school bruiser with great post moves and footwork.  That takes hours and hours of practice and probably is not as fun as jacking threes, alas. 

Oh, and Dave, no worries — busy week indeed!

That's fair.

[D3HforLyfe]

(5) Middlebury - Friday has arrived and after posting Wesleyan above Middlebury (a team that "Canvas Hightops" - an incredible username btw - accurately acknowledged hasn't beat the latter since the Bush Administration) I am surprised that I am still allowed to post on this forum. Is this 5-hole ranking for the two-time defending league champs disrespectful? Probably. Great players and good fortune have been in full supply the last decade in Pepin. From Rudin to Sharry to Wolfin to Thompson to Kizel to the most recent graduating senior class and everyone in between, Middlebury has been consistent in its excellency on the court. Jeff Brown has earned his rep as one of the CAC's best and the way he has these guys play on a year to year basis is inspiring, fun, and makes all haters of the Western Massachusetts duo (me!) sleep a little bit better at night....And, yet, I think this is the year they dip a bit, at least during the regular season. They lose too much of their identity. Matt St. Amour is gone now doing his thing in YMCA gyms in Ireland, and Jake Brown is teaching his tricks of the trade to up and comers at Muhlenberg. In my opinion, the departure of these two will take at least a year to patch up. Their entire pace, spacing, and style of play was predicated on the tempo setting of Brown and the absurd shot taking and making of St. Amour. I don't think it is as simple as just plugging in new pieces that can seamlessly replace them ala Patriots/Belichick style. Change takes time.

I can already hear the upset Vermont bunch now, "But Jack Daly...and the chemistry of our bigs...and Jeff Brown...and Koby Altman...and" -- listen, Middhoops and all of your proteges, I understand. Let me debunk my thinking more for you, despite the fact that none of it will resonate with you loyal maple syrup loving fans. First on the agenda, Daly - I don't want to sell him too short because he has put up incredible stats over the past two seasons. He is scrappy, has a great feel for the game, and seems to be a genuinely nice person. He also does an underratedly quirky thing on foul shots when he wipes the perspiration from his hands on the ground (never seen this by another player before) for which could count as a 'signature move' for him. I really respect Daly as a player. However, I am not sure he is cut out to be the number one guy on a top-tier 'CAC team. He isn't a great shooter, doesn't really beat people off of the dribble, and did most of his scoring off being a heady player and making simple plays. I think a lot of his success came from masterfully playing off of Brown and St. Amour, and if Midd has to rely on him to suddenly be the go-to guy I don't think that fairs well for them. Matt Folger and Hilal Dahleh I think are both good players on the perimeter with potential to find their way into bigger roles but it remains to be seen. The paint trio of Adisa Majors, Eric McCord, and Nick Tarantino does have nice chemistry, and I think all three will be very very solid (as they have been), but I don't see any of them making a push towards being All-NESCAC level.

One guy who does worry me a bit for this prediction: Freshman Griffin Kornaker from Suffield Academy. That kid is good - son of a basketball coach, from a high level high school program, and it looks like he can really shoot it. All of those things point to a seamless transition to the college game. He will likely be my pick for 'CAC ROY and one of the reasons I even kept the Panthers at five at this point. If he, another freshman, or someone else who didn't play much last year emerges as a main scoring option that allows Daly to sit back and do what he does best, my whole prediction could very well be way off. Heck, it probably will be anyways. Middlebury always seems to find a way to make things eventually run through Pepin come March. For now though, I'm sticking to my guns - I think they are a bit overrated and it takes them a while to find their new identity once we get into conference play.

[nescac1]

For the first time in the eight years that this site has been publishing pre-season all-American teams, not one Nescac guy is represented.   No surprise since no single obvious candidate.  I bet, however, that one or two from the Scadlock, McCarthy, Daly, Simmons, Hoffmann, and Pace group will be an all-American when all is said and done.  Just hard to say which one or two ...

As for Pace, it's been 20 months since his knee surgery.  I expect he will be 100 percent and have a monster year as Tufts' clear go-to scorer and playmaker.