MBB: NESCAC

[jayhawk]

Have appreciated D3Hforlyfe comments
Obviously difficult to predict success for teams with individuals who have not played before, and I know more about Amherst than other NESCAC teams
It is difficult for me to comment on some other teams except for teams such as Williams which returns a significant number of players  and did well. Be interesting to see how Mjddlebury and Tufts and Wesleyan etc play out
As far as Amherst I thought the comment by D3hforlyfe about Riopel was spot on. Riopel by the end of last year was Amherst's best 3 point shooter and very athletic. Hope he does well, that he does not get hurt and stays out of foul trouble. The combo of McCarthy and Riopel could be very strong. As far as freshman, an individual such as Grant Robinson has a big advantage  as he spent an extra prepping and did so at New Hampton which has a number of D1 players and plays against teams with similar players.  Grant has  chance to be quite good. Simliarly the point about Fru Che was also quite appropriate= he prepped at Brooks and made all league there on an undefeated team and is once of those guys that does anything that is needed to win
Eric Sellew will a sophomore and could have a better year just like the Williams crew did as sophmores. Amherst has a ton of better shooters (than last year) who did not play last year. So perhaps by the end of the year Amherst has a chance to be much better than last year's team. We will have to see about Joe Schneider

One other note I saw the discussion about Julius Erving. The key about Dr. J was that in high school  on Long Island he was a 6'3" center and during his transition to  UMASS he grew four inches to 6'7" and that allowed him to move from being a high school center to being a forward- This probably accountsfor why he was not a higher recruit in high school

[Canvas Hightops]

If Vinny Pace is fully healthy and stays that way, he could easily be near the top of the list for POY.  Not as sure as D3HforLyfe is that Tufts has enough horses around him to lift them to the top of NESCAC, though.
The discussion of the importance of big men at this level is one that will play out as the season progresses.  Seems like the unanimous favorite in the league is the team stocked with, oh yeah, lots of good big guys.  Really big guys.
Tufts is, on the other hand, stocked with great wing players. 
It's like a historically confused mixed metaphor to compare Tufts and Williams to the present day GS Warriors and the Bird/McHale/Parish Celtics from the 80s.
Both styles of basketball can win if you have quality talent playing to their strengths.
My guess is that Williams, playing to their strength, is going to wear teams down with waves of big guys blocking shots, grabbing offensive boards and scoring on easy put backs.
Can Tufts, and other teams, overcome that by running hard at the bigger team, shooting well from distance and creating speed-based mismatches (a la the Warriors)?

As a basketball dinosaur, I have a hard time thinking that if Wilt and Shaq were in their primes today that they could be neutralized by the modern game.  But having said that, I'd rather watch a team that is in fast break mode at all times than 'grind it out' basketball.

This board is off to a rousing start before the first game is played.  Let's hope that we can pick up some participants from Conn College, Wesleyan, Trinity, Colby and Bates.  Unless you count Old Guy who despite his Middlebury bona fides seems to also be a Bobcat at heart.

[Ubuntu]

ROY
Looking at Highlights Grant Robinson is real deal
https://www.hudl.com/video/3/2019303/5721de1d90eead5d90e7626e

I'll take the very small leap, he's going to have a great career.

Checking out some of the other Rookies on that list there looks to be some very good guards coming into the league

Just google there name, hit videos and voila.

The reality of hoop though it's about your best players not your role players. 
As new to the NESCAC, are the stars in the league generally stars from the get go (fresh) ?  Was St. Amour a 4 year starter?  Curious 

[D3HforLyfe]

Canvas Hightops - You might be onto something about Tufts, and I'd lying if I said that, after recapping 3-6, I wasn't thinking of moving them down a few spots. Despite my affinity for the Pace/Dayton backcourt I just don't know if their frontline will be able to hold some of the bigger teams off. I might do some reshuffling in my predictions before the first game tips. lol

[D3HforLyfe]

Hamilton - This is supposed to be the year they finally get over the hump. They made significant strides last year in 2016-2017 and all signs point up for them right now. Peter Hoffman was the only underclassmen to make an All-NESCAC team in 2016-2017. Kena Gilmour was a unanimous choice for NESCAC ROY. Michael Grassey emerged as a versatile inside-out offensive threat. Jack Dwyer and Joe Pucci seem to be as steady of senior-experienced leaders as there are in the league...So someone tell me why I am still so hesitant to put them in the top four, dammit! Is it because of their travel schedule? The fact their Margaret Bundy Scott Field House is an airplane hangar that is routinely sub-50 degrees the entire winter? Or maybe it is because the first thing I think of when hearing their name is the broadway play instead of their school. I don't know. Regardless, I'm rooting for these guys. 

Lets delve back into the personnel for a second. Obviously Hoffman had a great statistical season in 2016-2017 - 16.7 PPG (on 55/42/52) and 5.6 RPG for a sophomore is really good. I'm not sure if he goes up from here though and take that next step to All-NESCAC/All-American status like some are whispering, mainly, because I'm not sure that he can really shoot. That 52% on free throws is concerning, and while he did shoot 42% from three it was on a relatively small sample size (19-45). I think he puts up big Non-Con numbers before dipping when elite 'CAC defenses lock in on him. As for Kena Gilmour, I see him emerging as an All-NESCAC player, a truly elite D3 scorer, and the go-to guy on this team. He averaged 12.0 PPG on 48/33/73 splits last year, but did so in only 18 minutes per a game! Now that is really impressive, and I think Adam Stockwell (who, despite not winning at a high enough clip,is an innovative and brilliant coach) would be wise to take off the training wheels and let Gilmour go.
Somewhat surprisingly for my 6th pick in the league, the talented players don't stop there. Michael Grassey averaged 12.4 last season, and I don't think that was a fluke either. At a sturdy 6'5", Grassey has a quick trigger and can shoot it, but also has good back to the basket game particularly against smaller players. Stockwell, who is never afraid to do the unconventional (often starts 5'9 Jack Dwyer on the other team's opposing center on defense), often uses the versatility of Grassey, and Hoffman for that matter, in quirky ways during ATO's and important half court sets. I, for one, am excited to see him expand on this as these guys get a year older and more experienced. Andrew Groll also emerged as a nice forward/center for these guys, and provides some comforting size to battle bigger teams. It would be really nice if he was 6'9" instead of 6'7" so he could be this team's true anchoring center (ala Amherst's Pete Kaasila '12 or Trinity's George Papadeas '15), but gotta work with what ya got.

Lastly, what brings these guys together are the aforementioned Jack Dwyer and fellow senior Joe Pucci. Despite not having the numbers the others have posted, both of these guys are the definition of solid and reliable, and I believe deserve to have a winning season to go out on. Dwyer is a GREAT point guard - never rattled, great pace-setter, and gritty on both ends of the court. He averaged 7.7 PPG and 5.4 APG to only 2.0 TOPG (for a 2.7 A:T ratio). He is very limited as a shooter, but makes free throws (81.5%) and is heady enough to keep defenses honest if they lay off too much. Pucci is a jack-of-all-trades who provides great depth on the wing and does a nice job of making an impact despite being a 4th fiddle to the mirage of more aggressive scorers on this team. A quintessential glue guy, I think he could be a piece on a championship team.

So wait, once again, why can't I get myself to shuffle them up a few spots?! Not much separates these guys on paper from any of the five ranked above them. For me, there seems to be some Hamilton block that won't allow me to put them higher than this. They haven't been relevant since joining the league in 2011-2012, and, to the best of my knowledge, have struggled as a program since parting ways with their legendary coach Tom Murphy. The Matt Hart stint was fun and exciting before breaking hearts when he left - losing such a great talent to the D1 ranks when things started to finally look up set everything back a few years, and, ultimately, I believe was a lose-lose for both parties. I sincerely hope this year's squadron can bring some excitement back to the New York contingency of the NESCAC. They once again have an easy out of conference -- which I believe I heard on the Hoopsville's tourney show last March is smart for any NESCAC team to do for RPI and NCAA Tournament implications (would have to ask McHugh to get the real low down though, could be messing this up) -- so they will likely come out of the gate hot. I could realistically see this team competing for the top spot in the league. They really do have the talent, cohesiveness of parts, and coaching to do so, but since they are Hamilton I am going to have to see it to believe it.

[PolarBear16]

I think the reason why Hamilton won't end up higher is simple: their defense is not very good. Last season they ranked last in PPG allowed in conference games at 81.3. Having your 5'9" point guard defend the other team's center might be unconventional and work in spurts, but it is telling: Hamilton has to do funky things on defense just to throw the offense off balance.

Now, part of those numbers being so bad last year are a function of youth, and one would think that with another year under their belts that the defense gets better. On the other hand, I don't remember Hamilton having a decent defense while Stockwell is the coach and don't anticipate this team making a great leap on that end.

[Ubuntu]

This should be scrimmage day.  IF a NESCAC school could get a game it would almost have to be today or tomorrow?  Anyone know of any NESCAC teams that played anyone?

[JEFFFAN]

ROY
Looking at Highlights Grant Robinson is real deal
https://www.hudl.com/video/3/2019303/5721de1d90eead5d90e7626e

I'll take the very small leap, he's going to have a great career.

Checking out some of the other Rookies on that list there looks to be some very good guards coming into the league

Just google there name, hit videos and voila.

The reality of hoop though it's about your best players not your role players. 
As new to the NESCAC, are the stars in the league generally stars from the get go (fresh) ?  Was St. Amour a 4 year starter?  Curious

Terrific highlights.  He starts immediately.

[Vandy74]

ROY
Looking at Highlights Grant Robinson is real deal
https://www.hudl.com/video/3/2019303/5721de1d90eead5d90e7626e

 
As new to the NESCAC, are the stars in the league generally stars from the get go (fresh) ?  Was St. Amour a 4 year starter?  Curious

St. Amour started only 9 games as a FY.  Jake Brown started 8.  Joey Kizel only started 2 games his freshman season.  All three, however, averaged 22 mpg.  Starting "from the get go" is rare.  Even a player like Ryan Sherry wasn't much of a factor as a FY.  The only Middlebury player I recall who started from day one was Nolan Thompson.  Classmate Jake Wolfin didn't begin the season as a starter but replaced an injured Ryan Wholey about 7-8 games into the season and never gave up the starting role after that.

[ContinentalDomer]

Your point about defense is well-taken.  Taking care of the ball and rebounding are also critical.  If this high-scoring team is more efficient - maximizing possessions by limiting TOs and reducing second/easy chances by opponents, Hamilton will pose a lot of problems for league rivals.  Those are areas that can and should improve with experience. Those phases of the game will undoubtedly define the difference between 4, 5, 6, etc. league wins.

I think the reason why Hamilton won't end up higher is simple: their defense is not very good. Last season they ranked last in PPG allowed in conference games at 81.3. Having your 5'9" point guard defend the other team's center might be unconventional and work in spurts, but it is telling: Hamilton has to do funky things on defense just to throw the offense off balance.

Now, part of those numbers being so bad last year are a function of youth, and one would think that with another year under their belts that the defense gets better. On the other hand, I don't remember Hamilton having a decent defense while Stockwell is the coach and don't anticipate this team making a great leap on that end.

[amh63]

Grant Robinson is still a FY.  Went to his highlight films in HS...Potomac School featured in Va.  Respect JEFFFAN's opinions...but will differ with his comment wrt starting.  Grant is about the size and reminds me of Kalema from a Northern Va. school.  Kalema turned out to be a scorer and a driver and a starter along with Toomey in the last Amherst Title team.  Also remember his first start when Toomey was out.  Not too good is being nice,...IMO
The highlight video has Grant going to the basket and very few events showing him setting up his teammates. 
This year's team has a number of scorers that can go inside and shoot outside, rebound, etc.  Team needs more of a distributor and a defender, etc. at the PG, IMO. Grant may get som floor time but FYs must learn the defensive side first in a Coach Hixon team.

[Vandy74]

ROY
Looking at Highlights Grant Robinson is real deal
https://www.hudl.com/video/3/2019303/5721de1d90eead5d90e7626e

 
As new to the NESCAC, are the stars in the league generally stars from the get go (fresh) ?  Was St. Amour a 4 year starter?  Curious

St. Amour started only 9 games as a FY. 

And then again, there's always what really happened.   The Cuz reminds me that St. Amour did start until an injury put him on the shelf.  My bad.  I'd blame the ol' memory bank but I forget where I saw it last.

[D3HforLyfe]

(7) Trinity - For starters, The #7 slot is where I think we see a big drop off of talent in the league. I could see the top six shaping up a number of different ways, but I would be very surprised if anyone from here down made their way into the top four. Out of respect for what Trinity has been in the NESCAC the past 4 years (2x regular season champs and four straight CAC final four appearances) and the way they have done it, I can't put them lower than here. It's hard not to appreciate the way these guys compete, and, no matter their personnel, I think it will keep them in close ball games on most nights. Yes, some teams below them have more talent. Yes, the bully of all the other bullies, Ed Ogundeko, is gone (and not surprisingly enjoying a 5th year playing tight end down the interstate at Division 1 Central Connecticut), but Jimmy Cosgrove will have these guys in typical Trinity Bantam form by January without him or anyone else, no matter what.

Their lineup begins with the duo of Eric Gendron and Jeremy Arthur, both of whom emerged as solid NESCAC players last season. Gendron averaged 10.5 PPG (43/37/84 splits) and Arthur averaged 8.7 PPG (40/30/62 splits), but I think you need to bump these stats up a notch in your head because of their style of play. Averaging 10.5 at Trinity is like averaging 14 or 15 at Amherst, Middlebury, or other offensive-centric schools. Trinity games are very often played in the 60s, and points are simply harder to come by in their grind it out style and thus more valuable. Gendron is poised to be head honcho, and I think he is a fairly dynamic offensive player. A respectable shooter both from the three and mid-range, but also a hard slasher who can make plays off the jab or in transition. Arthur, on the other hand, played a lot of undersized power forward last season because his shooting ability opened up the paint for Ed-O to do his thing. However, I'm not sure if we have seen his full arsenal yet. He is versatile enough where he could play more on the wing this season, and be put in more positions where he is the primary ball handler making plays for himself and others. We will have to wait and see how he is utilized.

Kyle Padmore, Nick Seretta, and Connor Merinder are all tough wing/forward options who don't give much on offense, but do what is expected on defense - which is clearly much more important in Bantam country. If I had to pick a returner who didn't play much to make a big leap forward it would be Joseph Bell. He fits the toughness creed, but also gives a little more than the other guys offensively and could help heal the departure of Langdon Neal. The rest of the gaps will be filled in by a committee of tough role guys willing to get into a fist fight for any rebound or loose ball. They did get one high profile recruit in 6'6" Cushing Academy product Francis Uzorh who looks to fill the daunting shoes of Ogundeko, but, barring more impact pieces to their recruiting class that I don't know about, this team does not have enough talent to compete for a NESCAC Championship. However, like I said, they will always be a hard game. Cosgrove will accept nothing less.

[gordonmann]

Awesome scouting report. +K

[Greek Tragedy]

Well, for fun, I added Grant Robinson to my keeper league team. Let's see what he can do for the next 4 years.