MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

Boy they can play basketball in Vermont!  Yes, the boys of Midd. However, I'm talking D1 big boys here.   I just watched the UVM giving the Un. of Kentucky a battle!   Had TWO CHANCES TO tie the game in the last minute.....stayed close the whole game.  Older players giving the "One and Gone" players fits.

[Old Guy]

Who is D3HforLyfe? I would love to sit in a bar somewhere with him and NESCAC1 and just listen to them talk about NESCAC basketball. I'm buying. They have such a through knowledge of team rosters and the game itself, I could learn a lot.

I think D3HforLyfe's estimate of Middlebury is fair. A team doesn't lose a backcourt of the quality of Brown/St. Amour and not  take a step backward. Also, he's right (she?) that Daly has benefitted from playing in the shadow of his two backcourt stalwarts which allowed him to do his extraordinary all-round thing. Does he have the game to be the main guy? Skepticism is reasonable. We'll see.

Most people here think that Daly IS the guy and point to the sample of the four games at the end of the year when Brown went down and he took over at the point (12pts/7rebs/8assists). Very effective running the offense (and of course picking up the opposition's best player). He too likes to push it. People don't like his shot — he doesn't look like Ray Allen, true, but it's hard to argue with the 45% he shot from three in league play last year. Daly is special. He's ready. We think he'll have a great year!

Middlebury has had a decade of terrific guard play. In 2009, All-American Ben Rudin graduated, along with his backcourt mate Kyle Dudley (now Jeff Brown's ace assistant). The cupboard was bare. That fall, Nolan Thompson and Jake Wolfin showed up and gave us four years of fabulous guard play (helped enormously in their first year by defensive POY senior Tim Edwards as a transitional figure). When they graduated, Matt St. Amour (from tiny Swanton VT) and Jake Brown showed up, abetted for one year by senior All-American Joey Kizel. Brown and St. Amour gave us nonpareil backcourt play for four great years.

Now, four years after their arrival, what do we have? Well, there's Daly, in the Edwards-Kizel role, and some first-year backcourt players of real promise. Are these new guys in the Thompson-Wolfin/St. Amour-Brown mold? Will we have another four year stretch of solid, and perhaps spectacular, backcourt play? Again, we'll see. The early returns on Max Bosco and Jack Farrell are decidedly positive. They are lightning fast, skilled, and apparently unintimidated. Again, optimism.

It will take some time: they are freshman after all. As has been the case in recent years, Middlebury has a challenging early season schedule. Coach Brown will have to figure out his best rotations. Keep in mind that Hilal Dahleh, out all last season, is back and at full strength. Folger has license to shoot it from anywhere on the floor — his range is from half-court in. He could be a candidate for POY. He has that level of ability.   

It may be that Middlebury plays its best basketball in the second half of the season, as has been the case in recent years.

As D3HforLyfe prognosticates, Midd could be middle of the pack, with the losses to graduation they experienced. But, maybe not. Don't bet against the Panthers. Take us lightly at your own risk! it's a long season.

Again, we'll see — and soon! Game on.

[Greek Tragedy]

It was mentioned earlier that no nescac players were named to the preseason AA teams. That's really interesting as it seems like there is at least one guy representing the conference at the end of the year. I'm running a pool in the fantasy league page and several posters have named a couple of obvious candidates in Pace and McCarthy. They are well-known names for us non-NESCAC diehards. Daly could be a name as well.  Anyone else with AA credentials?

[nescac1]

I mentioned a few guys earlier. Kyle Scadlock to me seems like the most obvious choice. He played at an all-American level in the post-season last year.  Just has to carry that through to this year and do it more consistently.  Jack Simonds would be the other most likely choice, he should put up huge stats this year. 

The darker horses include Kena Gilmour, James Heskett, Jeff Spellman and Matt Folger — big talents who are probably a year away but could take an early leap.   But all those guys are more likely contenders for 2019. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

A few NESCAC players were considered in the preseason AAs, but a lot of seniors leaving both the previous year's teams and from the NESCAC left some interesting work.

One issue I had with some was they weren't on last year's All-Region teams. If I had to go off that list to find individuals, I would have... but it would have had to be a unique situation to go off the all-region teams (like Conor Raridon due to injury last year) to suddenly jump onto the Preseason list.

I think for many, I look forward to seeing them play onto these teams.

[nescac1]

I don't think any NESCAC folks this year really warranted inclusion.  Part of the issue is that there are LOT of really talented, established individual players from other New England teams returning.  I I don't know anything about the guy from Husson nor have I seen Jaquan Walters play (I imagine they are very good) but certainly Jake Ross, Nick Comenale, Echevarria and Ty Nichols are dudes who, if they were in NESCAC, I'd place in the top echelon of the league talent-wise.   I especially love Jake Ross's game.   All those guys are totally legit.  NESCAC is still the strongest conference in the region, but this year doesn't come close to a monopoly on the best individual players.  By the end of the year, however, I think a few NESCAC guys are likely to emerge into that category as well.   Especially if 1-2 NESCAC teams make deep tourney runs. 

[D3HforLyfe]

PolarBear16 - I think you are spot on. The lack of defense played on a yearly basis in NY has been an issue, and I definitely overlooked it. With that said, defensive rating does not always seem to be the best indicator of who will win the NESCAC. While Hamilton was objectively bad last year, Middlebury and Tufts (probably the best two teams in the league until Willy went on their run) actually gave up more PPG and rated lower than the Continentals in some other telling defensive categories. Maybe this season is the one where Hamilton will finally have enough firepower to overcome their lack of defense? I think that is their most likely road to success because I don't see their poor defensive trends suddenly changing even with more experience.

[middhoops]

Blatant homer-ism here but the reason Midd has high PPG against is that they run at full speed at all times.  Both teams get a higher number of possessions per game.
Not UNLV or Loyola Marymount circa 1990, but Jeff Brown tries....

[nescac1]

Count me as a Hamilton believer, but then again they played maybe their best game of the year vs. Williams, so my perspective may be distorted.  They graduated no one who was a major contributor and now are a far more experienced squad.  They should be better than last year's 16-9 record, the question is how much better ...

To me the big question mark for them is inside -- if they brought in some guys who can play quality minutes on the interior right away (I haven't heard of any) they could be very, very good.  Andrew Groll is a solid big man but definitely needs some help as the only returning big guy.  Otherwise, they look really good.  Dwyer, despite the lack of an outside shot is an old-shool rock-solid PG and I like teams with veteran senior starters at the point.  Vincent Conn is an able back-up.  And Hamilton is absolutely loaded at the wings -- Grassey, Gilmour, and Hoffmann are all absolutely legit and now far more experienced, and they also have Tim Doyle who averaged 20 ppg in three games before getting hurt last year and after missing a month of action wasn't quite the same. plus a heralded wing recruit in Tyler Washington.  They can have three fairly big, athletic, talented wings on the floor at any given time, with plenty of depth to rotate them in and out.  If they can get any kind of inside game together -- granted a big question mark -- they should be very tough.   

[D3HforLyfe]

(8) Bates - The Bobcats will always be a team that plays the upper half tough and has a big upset somewhere along the way (last years being their home win versus Tufts) simply due to the fact that Jon Furbush is a good coach cut from the same cloth as Cosgrove and Reilly. He lives for tough, hard-nosed hoops. In his ten years, they have been very good defensively and always play their tails off. Also, Alumni Gymnasium is the best home court advantage in the league and a relic to all levels of college hoops. A great, great basketball venue - particularly on Friday nights and double so when the Bobcats are good.  Unfortunately, I don't see the latter being the case this season.

If there is one thing the Bobcats can hang their hats on though it is good, deep guard play. The senior duo of Justin Zukowski and Shawn Strickland are this year's captains and both are tough, tough kids. Zukowski is a pre-season favorite for the All-NESCAC Crazy Team and for fans who haven't watched him intently in person, I suggest doing so this season before he leaves Lewiston-Auburn. He won't blow you away with the obvious, but he does all of the little things to get under an opposing team's skin. With so many guards, I wouldn't be surprised if Furbush just ends up playing Zukowski on the wing because he won't get pushed around by bigger players. Strickland is someone who I actually think could come through with a surprisingly productive senior season too. The Middletown, CT native missed a large portion of last season due to injury, but is a strong, quick combo guard who also can stretch the floor with his shooting ability and play bigger than his size.

The sophomore class is where Bates really finds their guard depth. Nick Gilpin seems to be the guy that Coach Furbush has the most faith in after making 21 starts and playing 24 minutes a game as the team's point guard as a freshman (only averaged 5.2 PPG but did so on impressive 47%FG and 46%3FG). Gilpin was a highly-touted Maine high school player, so it makes sense, but he hasn't proven that he deserves all of this time to me yet. He did play with poise beyond his years and was a steady-hand at the lead guard spot (3.6 APG and 2.2 A:TO), but he is going to have to take a big step forward if he wants to make Coach Furbush look smart for giving him so much time so early on in his career. Jeff Spellman is interesting as well, and averaged 9.2 PPG in 21 MPG in his first 'CAC rodeo. An extremely old sophomore, but a sophomore nonetheless, Spellman has taken a crazy path to Bates, but is one of the better athletes in the league and perhaps set to have a breakout year after transitioning back into college basketball last season. With those two being the more heralded guards, I actually think Tommy Coyne is the guy who will emerge as the star of the sophomore class before it is all said and done. Coyne, who averaged 7.2 PPG in only 14 MPG, is one of the league's best returning marksmen, and a gritty Mainer at heart. I watched Coyne win a state championship alongside Bowdoin's Jack Simonds at Falmouth HS, and I was most impressed with him out of these three during their freshman season because of his lights-out shooting ability and lack of conscience in doing so. I don't know if Furbush will ever play him over the other two, who are decisively better athletes, but I think he would be smart if he did.

In the end, I don't think this plethora of talented guards will matter too much when determining their fate as a bottom tier NESCAC team. The issue is that the Bates Bobcats don't return a single forward or center who has ever played a meaningful college minute. Obviously this is due to the fact they lost the pillars of their program to graduation. It has felt like a while since The Delpeche twins weren't anchoring the back line in L-A. It was going to be a tall task for anyone to immediately replace the presence of perhaps the two best rim protectors in the league, but it is an impossible one for a player who hasn't been on a college basketball floor before. To even make the playoffs, they will need at least two of their guards to step-up and be their guys like Graham Stafford and Mike Boornazian did. A couple of their sophomores is their best bet, but it seems like a stretch to expect these guys to carry the offense load this upcoming season. I'm not sure if I gave them the 8th and final playoff spot because they deserved it or because I love Alumni Gym. Regardless, I think they are one of the the four for sure cellar dwellers of the league.

[JEFFFAN]

I don't know who found D3HforLyfe or how he found us, but these write-ups are terrific.  Not only that but he hasn't yet developed the cynicism required to be a regular poster on the NESCAC board!   Keep it up D3HforLyfe - good stuff.

[nescac1]

I second Jeffan.  Keep up the good work!

[Canvas Hightops]

Yup, for sure.  Really enjoying the pre-season team by team analysis.
May differ in opinion here and there but not enough to put in the work that D3forLyfe is doing for our entertainment.
I hope we get visitors from distant boards who see the new standard.

Something tells me D3fL's age is less than half that of the average poster on this forum.

[Old Guy]

(8) Bates - The Bobcats will always be a team that plays the upper half tough and has a big upset somewhere along the way (last years being their home win versus Tufts) simply due to the fact that Jon Furbush is a good coach cut from the same cloth as Cosgrove and Reilly. He lives for tough, hard-nosed hoops. In his ten years, they have been very good defensively and always play their tails off. Also, Alumni Gymnasium is the best home court advantage in the league and a relic to all levels of college hoops. A great, great basketball venue - particularly on Friday nights and double so when the Bobcats are good.  Unfortunately, I don't see the latter being the case this season.

Bates gave Midd a terrible scare last year in the NESCAC quarterfinals in our gym before a raucous full house, 88-84: every short stocky guard they threw out there lit it up, and even Malcolm Delpeche who we did not bother to guard hit a number of outside shots. We had to pay attention to the Delpeches (who had 18 and 17 anyway), and taking into consideration Bates's season stats, we said make them beat us from the outside, and they almost did, shooting nearly 50% from the arc, 13-27. One Bates friend at the game said it was the best game they had played all year.

A little bias here but a significant factor in Bates's season may be the play of 6'7" Nick Lynch. He certainly will get minutes. He played in only three games last year before injuring his knee and requiring surgery (I think I have that right; if not, I'm close). Here's hoping he's healthy and has something of his big brother in him.

His brother, Peter Lynch '13, was a terrific player at Middlebury, a somewhat undersized post player (6'6"), who emerged as a lynchpin (like that?) of very successful Panther teams after Locke and Sharry departed (25-4 his senior year; three NCAA tourney wins; 15 ppg). Middlebury would run their offense through Peter, passing him the ball on the blocks from the wing or corner: doubled, he found the open man; not doubled, he Mchale'd it into the hoop, terrific post moves. Smart player, hard worker. He played in Ireland after his graduation for a year or two.

There will be a lot of Panther fans rooting for Nick, and it will be great to see Lynch pere and mere in the Middlebury gym again in early January when the Bobcats come to town.

[amh63]

Amherst's roster is still not up...but most posters know about the new players and can add them to the returning players.  Amherst has two tourneys at home going on in Le Frak this weekend.  Hoped to make a trip up....but family matters have made it hard as well as weather.....snow anticipated in the Pioneer Valley over the weekend. 
Anyway, a WSJ sports article on Coach K of Duke and his thoughts on the future of D1 MBB brought a smile when the writer mentioned  Duke's Cameron Stadium...holds  about, 9100 plus now...as a "Mouse Trap" place.  Yes as compared to the other ACC places.  Home games with its passionate fans provide an advantage.  I  see Bates historic venue as the "mouse trap" of the Nescac when conference teams arrive in town. 
The fans in the CAC can be and often are as passionate in particular games.  Amherst vs Williams games are usually packed and so are the Midd vs. Amherst games this decade.
I expect the conference title will be tight....again...and home court advantage Will be a factor.  I also expect the conference to have as many as three teams in the post season.
There my two cents thoughts/ "predictions".