MBB: NESCAC

[JEFFFAN]

Amherst lost in LeFrak to Wesleyan 70-66 in a game that was a disappointment to me BUT was also very encouraging in several areas.
First, the Cardinals are a big athletic team that can match up well with any Nescac team...a legit top 25 team.  Not saying this to boost Amherst....it is to be noted that Amherst lost to Wes twice last season!.  Amherst was out rebounded by Wesleyan and had more TOs...due in part by the tough defense they faced.  Six early TOs in the first half had me much concerned.  Looking at the stats, the one that stands out is the 10-19 Long ball one.  Wes shot better from outside than overall!
Dixon, a lengthy 6'9" center wearing his glasses comes off the bench and hits two threes.  He also has a smooth inside game. 
A problem area in the game is that Riopel, a senior captain, gets into foul trouble early. 
The encouraging sighs....the younger players are contributing well in rebounds, points and playing better on the defensive side.  When they try too much on their own...not playing team offense..they are taken out of the game quickly.  Amherst's bigs are playing much better, especially on the defensive side.  Amherst likes to go inside first on offense.
Last point....Down 10 late in the game, Amherst goes into a full court defense and even fouls early to get the ball back..preventing Wes from running down the clock.  Wes starts missing foul shots and it became down to whether Amherst could make a Three in the last 20 seconds of the game. 
I want to believe that Amherst is developing into a team that can make a statement in the CAC Tourny...and make a long run in the post season. 
Big game in Willytown on Wed...a Little Three game.  Hope Amherst will be up and ready for the Big and talented EPHs.  First Showtime game, IMO.

Hope springs eternal, AMH63, but I have not seen anything so far that suggests that the Jeffs make amything more than a barely audible peep this year!

[Colby Hoops]

After a disappointing opening weekend in league play, Colby handles Trinity with ease 61-51. Colby opened up an early lead and the game never got closer than 8 points for the rest of the game.

Alex Dorion didn't miss, knocking down all four threes he took, and Sam Jefferson scored 14 in the second half, finishing with 15 and 11. Star of the game was Dean Weiner despite shooting 4-15 from the floor. He finished with 11 pts, 13 boards and EIGHT blocks. When he stays out of foul trouble, Colby is an entirely different team on the defensive end.

Trinity was pretty unimpressive in what was easily their worst performance of the year. Trinity's starters shot just 6-30 including an 0-10 from Arthur.

[nescac1]

After Saturday, NESCAC conference play is already half-over ... crazy!  There seems right now to be four tiers in NESCAC.  Now, this could change rapidly, as I think that teams in tier 3 can easily beat teams in tier 2 on any given night.  But, as of now, the league seems to be coalescing as such:

Tier 1, the favorite: Hamilton.  Their record speaks for itself, zero losses, when all other teams have at least 3.  Until they lose a few games, they have earned their place atop NESCAC.  At this point, essentially a lock for their first NCAA bid in years. 

Tier 2, the contenders: Middlebury, Wesleyan, Tufts, Williams.  These teams are inseparable.  Heck, over the past ten days, Williams beat Wesleyan, which beat Middlebury, which beat Tufts, which beat Williams.  Wesleyan is only 2-2 in the league, but has also played a brutal league schedule, with the easiest remaining schedule of those four squads.  I'd say at least one, and as many as four, of these four teams will be in the NCAA tourney depending on how things shake out.  Each can afford to lose at least two more games and still be a good bet for Pool C; more than that, and it starts getting dicey.  Wesleyan clearly does need O'Brien to return healthy, as they aren't the same team without him.

Tier 3, the also-rans: Trinity, Amherst, Colby, Bowdoin, Bates.  These teams are capable of beating anyone on any given day, but all have some rough losses so far.  Trinity has a strong W-L record but the Colby loss hurts and the Bantams still have yet to face Tufts, Williams, Middlebury, or Wesleyan, as well as a stern non-conference test at Eastern Conn.  Earning a Pool C looks like a major stretch for all of these squads, who will need to win the NESCAC tourney, very likely, to earn an NCAA bid. 

Tier 4, Conn: ouch.  Even one win in league play will be a victory at this point.

In terms of individual accolades, that has shifted quite a bit as well.  POY looks like a three-man race between James Heskett, Jack Daly, and Kena Gilmour, with Bobby Casey, Vinny Pace, and Jeff Spellman as long-shot candidates.  DPOY looks like a two-man race between Dean Weiner and Jordan Sears (I'd give Sears the edge there, he's been incredible).  A lot of the rookies have, predictably, fallen off a bit in conference play.  With some other contenders struggling to stay healthy or struggling in league play, Austin Hutcherson looks like an overwhelming favorite for ROY at this point ... 

[toad22]

The fact that Hamilton isn't ranked ahead of all other NESCAC teams in the national poll must be a function of history. Nobody believes that Hamilton can be this good.

[nescac1]

Agreed with Toad.  Williams, Midd and Wesleyan all seem like teams that could fall anywhere between around 10 and 25 in the poll.  15-20 feels about right to me for all three, meaning that Williams is slightly overranked and Midd and Wesleyan seem to be about right.  Hamilton is DEFINITELY deserving of a higher ranking, they have been destroying teams left and right and now have some solid, quality wins on their resume.  I realize Hamilton's schedule is still on the soft side but as one of only four undefeated teams in D3, they certainly deserve to be in the top 10.  Certainly, they have a deep reservoir of experienced talent.  Hamilton's schedule is soon to get a LOT tougher -- five straight league road games, including two very long Maine weekend trips, which are never fun, and ending the season with a Midd-Williams double-whammy.  So they will soon have a chance to prove just HOW for real they are. 

[Greek Tragedy]

The fact that Hamilton isn't ranked ahead of all other NESCAC teams in the national poll must be a function of history. Nobody believes that Hamilton can be this good.

Its where the other teams started the season too. Their preseason ranking also has to do with how they finished last year. How did Hamilton finish last year?

[nescac1]

Hamilton is dramatically improved since last year, and they haven't made the NCAA tourney for a decade, so certainly they would not have been on any voters' radar heading into the season.  They also play a very weak non-conference schedule, in a weaker region than the rest of NESCAC competes in.  So I do understand the voters' hesitance.  Williams is benefiting from being a Final Four team last year that looked loaded heading into this year -- but of course, losing your top player, who was likely headed for an all-American season, to a season-ending injury changes the trajectory a bit and Williams has played about as well as you would expect given that.  Middlebury and Wesleyan were also NCAA teams last year (in Midd's case, an Elite 8 team) so like Williams, the voters are more familiar with them. 

On the other hand, a lot of NESCAC observers (including me) had high expectations for a far more experienced and clearly very talented Hamilton team this season.  And they have gone undefeated to date, blew out a solid Trinity team, and beat Wesleyan.  I think they've done enough to prove that the gaudy record is no fluke.  And what is scary for the rest of NESCAC is that Hamilton has done it despite getting minimal production from seniors -- next season is when they are likely to peak.  To me, Hamilton is one more big man to play some tough inside minutes, and some post-season experience, away from being a top-five national sort of team and legit NCAA contender heading into next year ...

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Just for clarification, Hamilton is a NE region team, by virtue of their membership in the NESCAC.

[nescac1]

Ryan, I just meant the region their out-of-league opponents come from.  Hamilton's all come New York, which is not a particularly strong region, and to the extent there is strength, Hamilton hasn't played any of the better teams in that region this year (Rochester, Skidmore, the best teams in SUNYAC, etc.).   The other NESCAC teams play in the far stronger New England region and have played the likes of Nichols, Salem State, Babson, MIT, Eastern Conn, Keene State and so on ...

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Ryan, I just meant the region their out-of-league opponents come from.  Hamilton's all come New York, which is not a particularly strong region, and to the extent there is strength, Hamilton hasn't played any of the better teams in that region this year (Rochester, Skidmore, the best teams in SUNYAC, etc.).   The other NESCAC teams play in the far stronger New England region and have played the likes of Nichols, Salem State, Babson, MIT, Eastern Conn, Keene State and so on ...

Yeah, I just wanted to make sure we said it.  Sometimes people forget.

[nescac1]

I actually didn't realize that until someone mentioned it this year, Ryan ...

The New England region rankings look like they are going to be pretty loaded.  If I had to guess where things stand right now, I'd say something like:

1. Hamilton, 2. MIT, 3. Wesleyan, 4. Williams, 5. Middlebury, 6. Eastern Conn, 7. Nichols, 8. Salem State, 9. Tufts, 10. Keene State / Trinity.  That is 6 top 25 teams and 8 of the top 30.   As always, of course, the Central region is similarly-stacked. 

[nescac1]

Midd and Albertus Magnus headed to OT.  Walters (playing for awhile now with four fouls) has single-handedly been keeping Albertus in this one, he is absolutely a legit all-American.  Jack Daly is similarly carrying Middlebury with tremendous individual play on both ends.  Which other guys step up on OT should decide it!  Poor outside shooting has hurt Midd; but poor free-throw shooting has hurt Albertus. 

[nescac1]

Midd pulls out the win in OT.  I'll let the Midd folks describe the details but Daly was immense in OT on both ends.  The guy is relentless, rarely sitting, controlling the entire offense, guarding the best guy on the other team down the stretch (and doing it well), I don't know how he has the energy. 

Well, now I feel bad that I may have jixed Hamilton.  Continentals in deep trouble at home, down seven with three minutes to go.  Looks like Grassey and Hoffmann have both struggled with serious foul trouble and are having really tough night in limited minutes. 

[lumbercat]

Had a chance to see the Middlebury team tonight for the second time this year. Obviously not as strong as the past few years but they battle and grind like hell.
Majors and his sidekick Folger (despite his lack of time in the weight room) are tough down low. Majors is cast in the mold of Bob Brannum, Jungle Jim Loscatoff and Roughhouse Rudy LaRusso. Only the Panther inner circle will remember those guys....
Majors is the NESCAC equivalent of Wayne "The Wall" Embry.

[nescac1]

Wow, Hamilton storms back to win by four and stay unbeaten. Three very solid nonconference wins tonight. Nescac is 11-1 in non-league action since a rough patch on January 2.  The league as a whole once again has a very gaudy record vs non-league foes.