MBB: NESCAC

[middhoops]

More stats to play with.

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

If nothing else, with a couple big weeks left in the season it's clear that the NESCAC has teams firmly atop the Northeast Region.

Keene St. always brings their A game for Middlebury.  The Owls knocked Midd from their #1 perch in 2012 and took them out of the NCAA tourney two years ago.  Should be a great game in NH tonight.

[amh63]

The cited long time coach at RIC that left to move to D1 is an alum of Hamilton College.  So is the present HC of ECSU.  Both coaches have set up yearly games with Amherst and as seen this year ECSU beat Amherst in LeFrak.  Amherst has met LEC teams also in the post season.
Just a secondary Nescac connection comment.

[ECSUalum]

Midd-Keene State could be interesting.  I'd be pretty surprised if 4-14 RIC gives Amherst much of a game.  RIC used to be at least good and usually better nearly every year, but has yet to really recover from the blow of their long-time coach moving up to D1 ...  the LEC in general has been on a bit of a downward trajectory as formerly solid programs RIC, Plymouth State and UMass Dartmouth have really been struggling.  Now it seems like basically a two-team league, with Keene and Eastern Conn as the dominant forces in the league the last few seasons ...

Actually Plymouth State only had above .500 records in seasons 15-16, and 09-10 over the last 10 or so years!  UM Dartmouth had some NCAA appearances from 07-08-09-10 and decent teams over the last 5 years! ECSU has essentially lead the LEC over the last 10 years except off year seasons 07-08, 08-09. ECSU has been plagued with injuries to top players at season end which has negatively affected their results in the last few NCAA tournaments. Since RIC lost Bob Walsh to Univ. of Maine,  RIC has struggled and I agree should not be a problem for the Lord Jeffs!   Keene is a very dangerous team in the off season as seen over the last 3 or so years and could be again this year with upperclassmen Ty Nichols and Dizel Wright the players to watch on this young squad.
This year the LEC is pretty weak with Eastern, Keene and Western the only teams that are positioned to compete with top conferences!  AllStar and I posted the LEC standings last week on the LEC thread!

[Old Guy]

Good win for Middlebury over a formidable Keene State team. Watched the game in a restaurant with my wife (a fan!) on her I-Pad, as we were in the final stretch of a long travel day (Phoenix). We didn't listen to the audio, but the video presentation was terrific; we wondered if Keene has a TV journalism/production program.

Midd was ahead most of the way, by as many as 13, but Keene State never went away and tied it at 61-61 at 10 minutes in the second half, and thereafter Midd was up 2-5 points only until the final decisive minute or so. Exciting game

Daly really runs the show - 19 points tonight (8-8 from the line), 9 assists, 4 steals. Folger returned to form after a couple of modest (for him!) outings, with 22 points (8-12), 3 blocks, 5 assists. Tarantino had 13 boards and 8 points; his play underneath was nicely augmented by McCord (who is playing very well of late) with 10 points and 9 rebounds and Majors also with 10 points and 5 rebounds. Very solid play on the baseline. 

Midd had 24 assists on 30 buckets and won the rebounding battle 41-28. A good strong win for a tough and cohesive group against a tough non-league opponent in their own gym before a big crowd. This Midd team is like its predecessors — some games are better than others but they never have an off night in effort.

Perhaps one of the posters who was there or watched more analytically will weigh in.

[AllStar]

A good game tonight between the Panthers and Owls.  Good luck to Middlebury over the remainder of the season!  Hope you have a good run!  I'll be following.

[maineman]

Good win for Middlebury over a formidable Keene State team. Watched the game in a restaurant with my wife (a fan!) on her I-Pad, as we were in the final stretch of a long travel day (Phoenix). We didn't listen to the audio, but the video presentation was terrific; we wondered if Keene has a TV journalism/production program.

Midd was ahead most of the way, by as many as 13, but Keene State never went away and tied it at 61-61 at 10 minutes in the second half, and thereafter Midd was up 2-5 points only until the final decisive minute or so. Exciting game

Daly really runs the show - 19 points tonight (8-8 from the line), 9 assists, 4 steals. Folger returned to form after a couple of modest (for him!) outings, with 22 points (8-12), 3 blocks, 5 assists. Tarantino had 13 boards and 8 points; his play underneath was nicely augmented by McCord (who is playing very well of late) with 10 points and 9 rebounds and Majors also with 10 points and 5 rebounds. Very solid play on the baseline. 

Midd had 24 assists on 30 buckets and won the rebounding battle 41-28. A good strong win for a tough and cohesive group against a tough non-league opponent in their own gym before a big crowd. This Midd team is like its predecessors — some games are better than others but they never have an off night in effort.

Perhaps one of the posters who was there or watched more analytically will weigh in.

Concidentally, the Keene announcers, who did a nice job, did allude to the Panthers benefitting from fouls called on defensive players that had jumped straight up and not into the offensive player.  So similar to the Trinity game, there was a discussion of Middlebury being bailed out by the refs every time Keene got within a few points.  But, the announcers also said that Midd knew how to finish close games, citing their series of wins by 6 points or less.  Statistically, there was no real evidence that Midd received an over-generous amount of fouls, only that they sunk 80% of them as a team.

Ty Nichols, who was off in the first half, ended up superb, on a level with the guard from Albertus.  Despite giving away inches to Midd, their big men played great especially Anozie.

[amh63]

Old Guy....Allstar posted on the Little East board a bit more wrt Midd win at Keene.
Amherst won big over a generally smaller over matched RIC team in LeFrak.  Do not even remember the final score, but Amherst led by over 40 points during a game that every dressed Amherst player got floor time.  Good news...no injuries and the players on the floor played hard, loose and shared the ball. Example....Amherst starting center had rebounds, blocks and Steals, but no points in limited time on the floor.  The FY center from NC got his points on the foul line and the Amherst bench stood up and cheered when he scored.  I was impressed with another FY tall player, Gerwin, that rarely gets into games....by his mature floor moves, shots and passes from the top of the key. 
Big game on Friday at Tufts...who also won big last night.

[nescac1]

After last night, according to the regional rankings shared earlier by Middhoops (and which I believe correspond closely to the numerical portion of how regional rankings and ultimately NCAA selections are determined),  Middlebury is ranked first in the country.  Hamilton is third, and Williams and Wesleyan are not far behind, at 11th and 15th.  Midd and Hamilton are locks for the NCAA tourney, almost surely, with two more wins (between regular season and NESCAC tourney games) each.  It's possible even one more win could do it for Midd.  Williams and Wesleyan each need probably three more wins to feel safe, although two for either MIGHT be enough depending on who they defeat.  For the Ephs, the season-opening home tourney, which featured wins over likely NCAA teams Salem State and Stevens, may end up being key to their chances of nabbing a post-season bid. 

Tufts, at 7th in the region and 28th overall, is very much on the bubble.  The Tufts-Amherst game on Friday is huge ... a loss for Amherst (which has a very weak non-league strength of schedule) probably knocks them entirely out of Pool C contention, and a loss from Tufts would put them on the outside of the bubble looking in.  I think at this point to make it in as a Pool C team Amherst probably has to win out all the way until the NESCAC title game.  The way the Jeffs have been looking of late, that (or even a NESCAC title) is certainly within the realm of possibility, but the path ahead is brutally difficult with games vs. Wesleyan, Tufts, Midd and Williams remaining. 

It's looking like a ton will be decided in terms of NESCAC hosting privileges in that Williams/Midd vs. Hamilton/Amherst weekend to end the season.  Those games involve some intense rivalry games and 3 of the top 4 (projected) teams in the New England region, as of now, and along with Wesleyan, 4 of the top 5 teams in NESCAC.  Should be wild!  Of course, all four of them could suffer a loss, or losses, this weekend that change the outlook significantly.  Other than playing Conn, no NESCAC game is a guaranteed win for anyone this season ...

Nice to see Williams pick up a strong road win over a decent team last night.  The Ephs continue to be led offensively by Heskett, Casey and Karp, who bounced back from a quiet game vs. Trinity to post his most productive stat line of the season -- 16 points, 6 boards, 3 blocks in only 17 minutes.  All three, as great as they have been playing in nearly every game since the start of league play, can't possibly have it going simulataneously in every big game (see Casey vs. Tufts or Karp vs. Midd), so Williams really needs another guy or two to step up from the supporting cast.  The most likely contenders are Cole Teal and possibly Henry Feinberg, each of whom has had some good moments, but no huge break-out game where they pour it on offensively.  Both of them will probably need to really step it up from time to time and post some double-digit scoring games if the Ephs hope to make a run to the NESCAC title game and/or a significant NCAA run.  The Ephs in particular could use a vintage 5-8 from 3 type of game from Teal in a game where they are otherwise struggling ...

[Greek Tragedy]

I really think Tufts has to win out too and then win their 1st round NESCAC game to get a Pool C bid.

[nescac1]

Greek, I imagine Tufts might squeeze in with one more regular season loss and a run to the NESCAC title game, losing there.  That would give Tufts a 19-8 record against a pretty tough schedule (NESCAC teams plus MIT, Salem, Wash U).  Williams made it in, with room to spare I think, with essentially the same resume last season.  But still, Tufts is definitely teetering on the edge of the bubble right now ... the Jumbos are capable of beating just about anyone on any given day, but also capable of losing to some teams with inferior talent. 

[Greek Tragedy]

Greek, I imagine Tufts might squeeze in with one more regular season loss and a run to the NESCAC title game, losing there.  That would give Tufts a 19-8 record against a pretty tough schedule (NESCAC teams plus MIT, Salem, Wash U).  Williams made it in, with room to spare I think, with essentially the same resume last season.  But still, Tufts is definitely teetering on the edge of the bubble right now ... the Jumbos are capable of beating just about anyone on any given day, but also capable of losing to some teams with inferior talent.

We're basically saying the same thing. I'm saying win out and lose in the semis. You're saying lose another but make it to the final. 

[PolarBear16]

There might be a better time for this than right before a huge weekend of conference play, but I'm interested in hearing what people think about Duncan Robinson's career at Michigan. Here is the link to his stats: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/3157465/duncan-robinson.

After his sophomore year, the sky seemed like the limit. On a team that made the NCAA tournament and featured a solid NBA player in Caris LaVert, Robinson played 29 minutes per game and averaged 11.2 PPG while shooting 45% from 3 point range. He took a step back last season and hasn't rebounded much this year as a senior. His playing time in some important games has dipped into the single digits.

I think Robinson's first season spoiled me, and that I would see this season as a success without it. At the same time... I am surprised that Robinson wasn't able to improve every year. Additionally, Michael Crotty's quote that Robinson is one of the best shooters on earth has aged poorly this season with him shooting just 36% from 3 this year. He is at 92% FTs though.

[amh63]

Some random comments before another important Nescac weekend slate of games.
Looked in on the Trinity vs ranked ECSU game in Williamatic last night.  Both teams have beaten Amherst and Trinity's " style" of defensive play has been discussed a bit on this board.  It was a close game in the first half but The Bantams were making too many TOs and the Warriors turned them into points to pull away as the first half ended.  Trinity's big scorer in its last game...30 pts...was shut down.  I looked for another game to watch...maybe the MIT game or another ranked team game such as Swarthmore.  I checked in on the D1 UVA game in Charlottesville...want to visit the new venue sometime.  Good competitive enjoyable BB game.
Anyway, the Trinity game became a somewhat blowout.  The other two D3 games were upset games! Oh well.  It seems to me that ranked teams to date are playing more "up and down" games.  Very much like the weather here in the Md-DC area.
If you have time, suggest you drop in on the Hoopsville Marathron broadcast going on now.  I looked in on it since Amherst's HC Hixon is a guest.  It started at 10 am and Hixon's interview is before noon.  I went back in time on my electronic device.  Good interview all around with Hixon given his view of where his young team is presently in the season.  Hixon gives some remarks wrt his future, present duties and his view of how the season has been going.  He is looking at only one game ahead and thinks the conference is very competitive this year....and IMO...likes his team's chances in the remaining games. 

[nescac1]

Duncan remains a tremendous, tremendous shooter with excellent basketball skills for his size.  He likely would have won a few national player of the year awards had he stuck around Division 3.  But physically, he just isn't cut out for top-tier D1 stardom.  Despite putting on a fair amount of muscle, he was never going to have the sheer bulk or strength needed to battle top-flight D1 big men, or the lateral quickness or fast-twitch athleticism to create room on the perimeter (or defend at an elite level) vs. top-flight D1 wings.  The fact that he has been a successful rotation player and part-time starter at the very top level of Division 1 is testament to his skill level (in particular his shooting), work ethic, and hoops IQ.  However, it's much easier to improve skills over time when you are an elite athlete than it is to grow as a player when your skills are already at an elite level, but what limits you is your athleticism.  Hence it's not really surprising to see Duncan plateau (especially after a few years, when teams can scout his strengths and weaknesses as a player)

Had he gone to Davidson or a Patriot League school, Duncan probably could have been a big time scorer.  Indeed, this year he's put up some great numbers in games in which Michigan plays the lower half of Division 1 teams.  That in and of itself represents a pretty big step up from Division 3 competitive.  But then it's ANOTHER major leap forward to compete with top-50 type power conference Division 1 teams, which comprise the majority of Michigan's schedule.  Those teams are comprised of recruits who are generally the most elite basketball athletes in the country.
Duncan has very little room to operate against that level of athlete, who generally need to find ways to get quality shots off with very large guys draped all over them or closing out very fast.   

Look at this year: even though his three point shooting is a bit down, it's really a result of one bad mid-season slump vs. tough competition ... four games vs. Indiana, UCLA, North Carolina, and Ohio State when he shot a combined 4-24 from 3, and 5-30 overall.   Other than that brutal four game stretch, he's shot at at about the same high level of efficiency he did his first two years. 

Duncan has basically been between the 5th and 7th best guy on what has been a borderline top 25-30 team throughout his three years on campus.  That puts him easily in the top third, maybe higher, of D1 scholarship players, nationally, which again is pretty remarkable coming from even the very top of Division 3.  The level of success Duncan has attained shows that a truly elite Division 3 talent can make a major impact vs. a good chunk of Division 1 competition ... but the leap from lower-level D1 to the top half of power conferences is perhaps even larger.   

[Mr. Ypsi]

nescac1, excellent summary of Duncan's UM career, and why it was remarkable, but didn't go even higher.  As both a D3 fanatic and a UM grad and fan, I've avidly followed Duncan's career.  I confess that I thought once the UM strength coach worked with him, he was destined for flat-out stardom.  You nailed the problems: even bulked up he still can't really compete on equal terms in the paint.  Even more key for his style of game, he lacks the lateral quickness to compete at the top of D1 at the wing - a defect I'd not realized because it didn't get exposed against D3 athletes.