MBB: NESCAC

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Games against non-Division III teams are generally not considered in the regional rankings, no. They would be considered among the secondary criteria, which is more of a tiebreaker. The secondary criteria are generally considered only in the last handful of Pool C slots.

And to continue on this point, it would only be considered as adding a W to the overall WL% and only if a team being discussed with Amherst ALSO had played the same NAIA team. Usually, those games end up having little or not affect. If they are that deep into the selection process, they are splitting the finest of hairs.

[ronk]

Some comments upon reflections on the comments posted on the games played over this weekend.  Am awaiting the Tufts vs Trinity game.  Seems that game will impact the Tourny seedlings as refective of the Nescac MBB standings posted today.  It presently has Bates in the 8th place spot.
Do have a question for the smarter posters on this board.  Amherst's record includes a lost to a non D3 team...a NAIA D2 team ranked 7th in the country at the time.  Is that counted in the D3 regional rankings...as number of losses seem to be weighed heavily in polls.  Believed a presently D3 ranked team lost to a non D3 team and does not list that lost...York(Pa.)? Maybe?  Yes two questions.
Anyway, back to my comments..
ECSU...thanks to your positive comments wrt Amherst's wins, the conference and on HC Hixon!  Plus K
old hopper...spot on remarks! Agreed on the TOs.  However, I see the turnover numbers as a result in part to the "bench" players sharing the ball...and the presses by the weekend opponents.
Vandy74.... a most heartfelt post from a true Panther...and Commodore fan .  Only a few posters here are aware of your deep LJ family ties.  Plus K.  I will reveal several.  Vandy's father is an Amherst alum.  Vandy's  niece is presently at Amherst.  After the death of one of his brothers, a Lord Jeff alum, Vandy helped in the raising of his niece.

York lost to D1 Mt. St. Mary's in an exhibition game for York, so it doesn't count in their record.

[ECSUalum]

Some comments upon reflections on the comments posted on the games played over this weekend.  Am awaiting the Tufts vs Trinity game.  Seems that game will impact the Tourny seedlings as refective of the Nescac MBB standings posted today.  It presently has Bates in the 8th place spot.
Do have a question for the smarter posters on this board.  Amherst's record includes a lost to a non D3 team...a NAIA D2 team ranked 7th in the country at the time.  Is that counted in the D3 regional rankings...as number of losses seem to be weighed heavily in polls.  Believed a presently D3 ranked team lost to a non D3 team and does not list that lost...York(Pa.)? Maybe?  Yes two questions.
Anyway, back to my comments..
ECSU...thanks to your positive comments wrt Amherst's wins, the conference and on HC Hixon!  Plus K
old hopper...spot on remarks! Agreed on the TOs.  However, I see the turnover numbers as a result in part to the "bench" players sharing the ball...and the presses by the weekend opponents.
Vandy74.... a most heartfelt post from a true Panther...and Commodore fan .  Only a few posters here are aware of your deep LJ family ties.  Plus K.  I will reveal several.  Vandy's father is an Amherst alum.  Vandy's  niece is presently at Amherst.  After the death of one of his brothers, a Lord Jeff alum, Vandy helped in the raising of his niece.

amh63, you can never underestimate a team coached by Dave Hixon!!!  Best of luck in the tournament, we will be rooting for you!!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Some comments upon reflections on the comments posted on the games played over this weekend.  Am awaiting the Tufts vs Trinity game.  Seems that game will impact the Tourny seedlings as refective of the Nescac MBB standings posted today.  It presently has Bates in the 8th place spot.
Do have a question for the smarter posters on this board.  Amherst's record includes a lost to a non D3 team...a NAIA D2 team ranked 7th in the country at the time.  Is that counted in the D3 regional rankings...as number of losses seem to be weighed heavily in polls.  Believed a presently D3 ranked team lost to a non D3 team and does not list that lost...York(Pa.)? Maybe?  Yes two questions.
Anyway, back to my comments..
ECSU...thanks to your positive comments wrt Amherst's wins, the conference and on HC Hixon!  Plus K
old hopper...spot on remarks! Agreed on the TOs.  However, I see the turnover numbers as a result in part to the "bench" players sharing the ball...and the presses by the weekend opponents.
Vandy74.... a most heartfelt post from a true Panther...and Commodore fan .  Only a few posters here are aware of your deep LJ family ties.  Plus K.  I will reveal several.  Vandy's father is an Amherst alum.  Vandy's  niece is presently at Amherst.  After the death of one of his brothers, a Lord Jeff alum, Vandy helped in the raising of his niece.

York lost to D1 Mt. St. Mary's in an exhibition game for York, so it doesn't count in their record.

Correct... this is a non-game for York, so not worth being part of the conversation.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Duncan Robinson update.

He replaced an injured starter today at Wisconsin (where the Wolverines had been 1-13 this millennium) and had 16 points (4 threes) in a blowout-turned-tight victory.  He has not had the career I'd initially envisioned at Michigan, but still pretty damned good.  I doubt he has any future in the NBA, but should have quite a lucrative future overseas if he is so inclined.

[Old Guy]

Congratulations to the Lord Jeffs on today's convincing victory over my Panthers.  As of today they are unranked and the Nescac regular season champions.     

Am I wrong to think that your Panthers tied for first place in NESCAC's regular season at 7-3?

True, they have some company in that spot.

[AllStar]

[P'bearfan]

Bowdoin dropped a tough one to Wesleyan this weekend and heads into the NESCAC tournament as the 8th seed where they will face Amherst.  That's a tough assignment but the Polar Bears have been competitive with most teams so we'll keep our fingers crossed.

The Wesleyan game was also Bowdoin's Senior Day.  Congrats to the Polar Bear seniors - a great group of guys! 

[Colby Hoops]

Going to be some interesting match ups this weekend. A couple of weeks ago you there would've been some long odds on Amherst as the #1 seed, and I would've bet a lot of money on Middlebury having a home game in the first round of the tournament. A few quick thoughts on each match up this weekend:

Amherst vs. Bowdoin: Kind of a double-edged sword for Bowdoin in this game. Amherst is probably the weakest team Bowdoin could have asked for as an 8 seed, but Amherst matches up really well defensively against Bowdoin. McCarthy, Che and Cherry and are all strong, long defenders to throw on Simonds and Reynolds. Amherst can struggle offensively, but the Bowdoing D is mediocre, so even an okay offensive performance shouldn't hurt Amherst too much. A much more even game than you would expect for a 1-8 matchup, but Amherst should be able to slow down the Bowdoin offense enough to win.

Williams--Trinity: Trinity will make this a slog as always, but Williams is too talented. There will be even more attention on Heskett after he torched them for 30+ in the last matchup, but I think Casey and Karpowicz should have more opportunities.

Hamilton--Tufts: Despite Hamilton crushing Tufts on the road, this seems like a good bet to be a competitive game. Tufts had a Jekyll and Hyde season (not unusual for Bob Sheldon's teams). Who knows which team shows up? Hamilton has a little bit of that in them too, so this is a tough one to predict. Leaning Tufts in an upset, if there is such a thing this year.

Wesleyan--Midd: I still think Middlebury is the best team in the league, but I certainly don't feel confident about that. Wesleyan has had a few head-scratchers this year, but I highly doubt they don't show up for this one. I'll take Midd as Daly is due for a bounce back game, but the Wesleyan D is no joke.

[toad22]

Wesleyan--Midd: I still think Middlebury is the best team in the league, but I certainly don't feel confident about that. Wesleyan has had a few head-scratchers this year, but I highly doubt they don't show up for this one. I'll take Midd as Daly is due for a bounce back game, but the Wesleyan D is no joke.

Wesleyan would be my last choice as an opponent in the quarterfinals, especially if the game is played in Middletown. A very tough draw.

[amh63]

Allstar....see you brought your talents to this board....thanks and +k
Colby Hoops ...good thoughts on the upcoming match ups.  Amherst played Bowdoin in Maine and won by 15.  One of their easier games up in Maine.  Announcer was one that would state Bingo after a Polar Bear outside shot.
Wes is one of the hardest teams to matchup with, IMO.  Their 6'6" FY PG has a deadly outside shot and hard to guard.  If their glass wearing center with a fine outside shot is in the game and is left unguarded, the Cardinals can be hard to beat.  Still the trip to Middletown maybe easier than the one to Clinton for the Panthers.  Expect Daly to have a great game and Folger to disrupt Wes's talented PG.

[AllStar]

...and here is how the regular season played out (the image can enlarge by clicking on it and a scroll bar will also appear).

[Colby Hoops]

Figured I'd also do a quick season recap for the Mules. Overall, it was probably a slightly disappointing season in terms of record. Would have been nice to put up a little more of a run at the 8 seed. The two losses to Bates stand out and would've been nice to pull one of the upsets out against Amherst or Hamilton, both games came down to the wire. Weiner's injury and an apparent flu bug that hit the team were tough timing early in the conference schedule, but every team deals with injuries/sickness.

Some good signs and promise, some things to be worried about:

Positives:

• Dean Weiner really emerged from nowhere to be a potential all-league player heading into his senior year. Great shot blocker, rebounder and underrated passer. A bit strange that he barely played last year. Not like Colby was teeming with talent at the center position
• Sam Jefferson continued to develop into a legitimate scorer. Doesn't create his own shot well enough to be a top option, but has a quick release and deep range and should thrive as a second option over the next couple of years
• Matt Hanna and Wallace Tucker have solidified the backcourt of the future in Waterville. Hanna was red hot the first two months of the year and then really saw his shooting tail off in the second half. Tucker was pretty consistently good throughout the year. They lack height, and Hanna is an okay athlete at best, but I think both guys take a big leap next year. They have basically been the led ball handlers from the get go, which is tough sledding in league play as freshmen.
• Dorion, Schlager, Williams and Gilmore are all just sophomores and should develop into solid role players next year. Would like to see Williams a bit more aggressive on offense and Schlager had a rough shooting season and I think would benefit from being a little more selective. Him and Williams are Colby's best (only?) perimeter defenders so would be nice to see their offensive contributions tick up.

Negatives

• Defense without Weiner was pretty rough. He covers up a lot of mistakes, and he missed several games with injuries and was often plagued by foul trouble. There's a real lack of front court depth behind Weiner, so perimeter defense is going to need to take a big step forward next year.
• Athleticism is a big question mark. Colby is outgunned from a size and athleticism perspective at most positions. Hopefully a few longer, more athletic wings or bigs in next year's freshman class. A new $200M athletic center on the horizon should help with recruiting.
• Amherst, Middlebury and Tufts all lose some key seniors, but Tufts is probably the only team that seems like it could fall out of the conference tournament. Colby realistically needs to pass Trinity, Bates, Tufts and Bowdoin (assuming Conn is still not good) to finish middle of the road next year. Not the easiest task as Tufts is the only team that loses multiple key guys.

Exciting to have some good young players, but a long hill to climb.

[nescac1]

Thoughts on what I see as the six legit contenders in the NESCAC tourney (and by the way, I can easily see Trinity or Bowdoin pulling first-round upsets, but I don't think either has enough to win three straight on the road):

(1) Amherst -- Amherst, like it has all year, is the hardest team to figure out.  Case in point was last week when they lost convincingly to Wesleyan then cruise to wins over Middlebury and Williams.  I think that a key to Amherst's improved play has been Josh Chery's emergence as a solid sixth man.  He was injured early in the year and got his chance once some other guys suffered injuries, and he has added a needed dose of elite speed and athleticism to a bench group that is severely lacking in both now that Fru Che is a starter (Mobley, Groff, and Day are shot-makers on the perimeter, but don't give a ton beyond that).  Chery's last three games, against three top-25 teams: 8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2 apg, 2 spg.  He has emerged as an excellent "glue guy" sixth man who can guard three different positions effectively.  Michael Riopel and Johnny McCarthy have also been playing well and each, I think, has played their way onto the second-team all conference team.  To me, Amherst's biggest weakness remains the lack of a true go-to scorer who can take over games on his own, someone who can be counted on to create on his own down the stretch of a close game.  I think Robinson may be that as an upperclassman, but he's not there yet.  Riopel at times can get to that level, but not every night -- and he recently had a stretech of four straight games where he scored in single-digits. 

Amherst could easily win the league, especially playing at home, where they have lost only twice all season and seem to play much better.  Of course, a loss to Bowdoin wouldn't be a huge shock, either -- it's been that sort of up and down season for the Jeffs. Even two wins in the NESCAC tourney MIGHT be enough for Amherst to squeeze out a Pool C bid, which I thought they were dead in the water for. 

(2) Williams - For Williams, nothing really has changed since Greenman went down.  The team needs both Bobby Casey and James Heskett to be shooting and scoring well to beat top-tier opponents.  If Matt Karpowicz is in double-digits scoring, that is a huge plus as well.  The rest of the lineup is struggling to get buckets right now.  On the other hand,when  Casey and Heskett have it going (and both do more games than they don't, right now, with Jack Daly struggling just a bit, I'd say they are the two best offensive players in the league) the Ephs are VERY difficult to beat because Williams' defense has gotten so good, and the Ephs have a long list of big, physical, tough defenders playing in the rotation now ... Kroot, Feinberg, Kempton, Galvin, etc.  The Ephs still haven't given up more than 73 points in a single game all season, which is pretty amazing.  But in the games Williams has lost, they've generally struggled to make shots ... there is no way that with every defense keying in on them, Casey and Heskett but both be on fire every game from now on, so a few other guys are gonna HAVE to step up and make more big shots on offense.  Trinity is going to maul Casey and Heskett all game, I have no doubt, which will open things up for other guys.  The role guys need very much to take advantage of all the attention paid to the big two.  I note that Karp has only averaged 5 FGA attempts over this past four games, which is just not gonna cut it.  I'd like to see that number be in the 7-10 range going forward, the Ephs REALLY need him to be getting good looks at the rim whenever he is in the game.   

One other note on Williams -- the Ephs certainly had the toughest in-league schedule in the conference.  The Ephs had to play six league road games against only four home games.  And they had to play the other four teams who tied for first on the road, as well as Trinity, who finished seventh.  Going 2-2 at Wesleyan, Amherst, Hamilton and Midd (in league games) is certainly not easy.   

(3) Hamilton -- I still have yet to see Hamilton play more than a few minutes this season, so have no thoughts on their prognosis! 

(4) Wesleyan -- Agree with everyone else that Wesleyan is playing like the team to beat now.  O'Brien is working his way back and will, I imagine, benefit from another week of rest.  The Cards are a very different team with him healthy, and it's noteworthy that in their three recent losses, he didn't play or in one case barely played.  Wesleyan has so much length and athleticism with O'Brien, Hutcherson, Sears, and Bonner on the perimeter, and then four capable big guys inside, that points do not come easy against them for ANY team.  Wesleyan is especially adept at focing opposing teams' top scorers into off nights ... e.g. Jack Simonds, 2-10; Michael Riopel, 0-5; Vinny Pace, 7-21; James Heskett, 5-14; Jack Daly, 6-18; Jake Ross, 6-20, the list is impressive.  For Wesleyan, like with Williams, the question is on offense.  If you can limit Bonner and Krill's looks from 3, the team can bog down a bit on offense.  Still, I think Wesleyan is probably the toughest team to beat in NESCAC right now as they are fully healthy and seem to be in a good groove.  Austin Hutcherson is very likely a future all-American and will be a big time star as early as next year.

(5) Middlebury -- I still think Middlebury has a good chance of winning the league tourney, but obviously starting off at Wesleyan, then needing to (almost surely) win two more games on the road, is a very difficult path.  From December 29 through February 10, the Panthers played a packed, brutal, exhausting schedule, after cruising through a very light / easy slate of first semester games, and I think it may have finally caught up to them.  18 games in 42 days, two of them OT games, many of the others right down to the wire.  Jack Daly, in particular, may just be a bit spent right now ...and no one could blame Daly if he was -- dominating the ball while leading the team in basically every statistical category, playing big minutes in nearly every game, plus often guarding the opposing team's best perimeter player.   Look at some of the minutes he has posted starting on Jan. 2: 39, 38, 42, 35, 35, 36, 38, 38, 35 ... and those are HARD minutes.  He's only been under 29 minutes once.  Distance shooting is usually the first to go when the legs are tired, and Daly's three point shooting (not his strong suit to begin with) has been a bit of struggle of late: 5-33 since January 6, after starting the year a respectable 14-43.  If I'm playing Midd, I'm laying off Daly a bit and daring him to make 3's rather than kill me with the drive-and-dish.

Midd in general is a team that needs to be fresh and energized to succeed since it thrives so much on pushing the pace to generate easy looks in transition and on offensive rebounding, both of which require a lot of energy.  The good news for Midd is that the team plays a deep rotation and should benefit from playing only one game over 13 days.  Until this year, Midd had Wesleyan's number for years, and it would not be any sort of surprise if Midd came out on fire and ran past the Cards on the road on Saturday. 

(6) Tufts -- Tufts is, kind of like Amherst, a very difficult team to figure out, lots of hard-to-figure results but also some big wins on the resume   Still, no one would be surprised to see the Jumbos go on a three-game winning streak.  By far the most senior-heavy team in the league, Tufts has loads of tourney experience to rely upon and should be playing desparate knowing that it very likely needs three wins to make the dance rather than ending the seniors' careers on a disappointing note.  Vinny Pace can still take over games, and the Jumbos seem to be as healthy as they have been all season.  The key is, who will step up to help out Pace?  Some nights it's been Dayton, others Garrett, others Savage.  If two of those three guys can get it going consistently, the Jumbos will be a tough team to beat.  Eric Savage, who started out the season on fire and has plenty of talent, has been struggling of late and could be the x-factor.  If he can go-off, Tufts could easily beat anyone in the league.  But they've also shown that they are capable of some cryptically bad nights. 

[nescac1]

Interesting thoughts on Colby, Colby Hoops.  This year, the top five really cleaned up on the CBB teams, going 14-1, with Bowdoin's win over Hamilton the only upset.  I do think the CBB squads will be far more competitive next season, as they collectively lose very little from mostly young teams. 

I think Bates and Colby have similar issues: both have one really solid big guy who should provide an excellent interior anchor as seniors, but this year had NO ONE else on the interior and got decimated inside.  Both Colby and Bates have deep, young, and feisty groups on the perimeter who had to carry a bit too much of the load as young players, but should be battle-hardened and much improved collectively.  For Colby, next year Weiner as you note has to stay healthy and learn to avoid foul trouble; if he does, he will be DPOY I predict.  But Colby desperately needs to add a few big bodies who can help out a bit as frosh and then step in to starting role(s) thereafter.  That would take a some pressure off all the perimeter players to constantly create all the offense.  Bates, likewise, needs a few guys up front to help Lynch out.  Their hyped incoming 6'8 recruit looks like he will be able to help out as a rebounder and shot-blocker right away, and if he can give even 15 quality minutes per game as a first-year, Bates could be much tougher next year.  Spellman tailed off a bit late in the year, but should be an all-league player and centerpiece of the team next season. 

Bowdoin, I also feel like has a chance to make big strides next year.  I feel like Bowdoin has some pretty solid talent and I believe Rucker and Grad both have major break-out potential as sophomores, each has a very high upside and a lot of room to grow as players.  David Reynolds is a sweet shooter at forward and O'Neil should be rock solid in the middle as a senior.  I also like Ferraro and Bohrs as feisty energy guys off the bench.  None of those guys are really likely to be stars next season, however.  The x-factor remains Jack Simonds.  He won ROY and as a frosh looked like a sure-fire all-American.  But he seems to have plateaued since then and appears unlikely to be even all-league as a junior.   If Simonds can be a star for Bowdoin as a senior, there are definitely enough pieces around him for the Bears to make a major run next season.  If not, the team lacks that one elite player to take it over the top.