MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

I thought Duncan's play was huge for Michigan on Saturday night.  After playing little in the first half, he was inserted as a starter in the second half, and put up 9 points, 1 board, 1 steal and one beautiful assist while playing most of the second half.  He hit two huge threes on a night that Michigan was struggling to make any and just his presence in the corner opened up a lot of driving lanes for his teammates.  He really helped the team get into a positive flow on offense as he kept the ball moving whenever he touched it. 

Now, playing against Villanova will be a much bigger test for Michigan.  Villanova looks to me like by far the best the team in the country.  Both teams like to space the floor but Villanova shoots it a lot better as a team and I'd say they are a bit quicker overall to boot.  It's hard really to find much of a weakness on Villanova, other than if you can get them into foul trouble they aren't that deep beyond the top six guys, all of whom can REALLY play.  The Wolverines will need to shoot the lights out and hope that Villanova has a rare off night to pull off the upset. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Villanova was not as dominant a team as some have been, but was CLEARLY the best team this year.  Their title is well deserved.

The loss tonight can be clearly blamed on Duncan and the Michigan game plan.   They were 29-0 when he scored 6+ points; they are now 4-8 when he doesn't!  Tonight he had zero.  Extremely doubtful it would have made a difference, but he was hanging out in his corner and the ball rarely came (he only took 3 shots in 22 minutes).

[Hopefully no one took me seriously about the blame: UM lost to a clearly superior team.]

Anyone know DR's intentions for next year?  With his shooting skills, it certainly wouldn't shock me if an NBA team took an interest, though Europe or elsewhere seems more likely.  Or would he prefer to just get on with his life?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Steve Novak made a decent NBA career out of being tall and a shooter, plus his defense was at least as bad as Duncan's, although there is a difference between 41% and 45% from three.  Who knows?

[P'bearfan]

Congratulations to Duncan Robinson on an outstanding collegiate career!  It's been fun watching him garner so much success at Michigan.  Suspect he'll have a number of options to play professionally if that is what he wants to do.

[JEFFFAN]

I read somewhere that he fully intends to keep playing hoops and why not!  Good money, maybe travel if he goes to Europe, delay becoming a full-fledged adult.   I would guess he is a borderline NBA bench player on a team looking for some three-point shooting.  He is not Kyle Korver in terms of body strength but he can shoot.

What a story!

[nescac1]

As expected, Villanova just had too much talent for Michigan.  But still, great year for Duncan and the Wolverines. 

Duncan really maximized every inch of his opportunity at Michigan.  I love his game and I think he is perfectly suited with his skills, court sense and elite shooting for his size to a long career at the highest level of play in Europe, just a perfet Euroball game.  The comparison to Steve Novak is a big stretch, though.  Novak was a star at Marquette ... as a senior he averaged 17.5 ppg and 6 rpg, while shooting 48/47/97.  Duncan is a tremendous shooter, but Novak was a historically, freakishly good one.  He was also a legit 6'10, so he could at least plausibly contend a little bit with NBA forwards as a defender, even though he still really struggled.  Duncan is not big enough to have a prayer guarding NBA bigs.  And of course, Novak's lack of athleticism stood out like a sore thumb in the NBA; his shooting was just SO good that he could be occcasionally useful as a stretch 4.  I'd love to see Duncan in the NBA but alas I think he's a few inches too short and a few steps too slow to deal with those sort of freak athletes.  Would love to be proven wrong though!  Perhaps if he goes to Europe and can really improve his ball-handling, playmaking, and strength he would have a shot at a cup of coffee in a few more years ...

Turning back to NESCAC, it's been a very quiet recruiting season it seems like.  After a good number of high-profile ED commitments, there has been little news of recruits / transfers trickling through this Spring.  Perhaps in the next few weeks things will pick up a bit.  Last year's frosh class, led by Hutcherson, Farrell and Robinson, but also with loads of depth, I think will go down as a truly great one.  This year, outside of Williams' seemingly strong class, there haven't been very many eye-catching recruits reported here ... at least not yet! 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Steve Novak made a decent NBA career out of being tall and a shooter, plus his defense was at least as bad as Duncan's, although there is a difference between 41% and 45% from three.  Who knows?

For the record, Duncan's defense greatly improved this season. It has been a talking point for the coaching staff to stress how much he had improved. They actually credited him for being a factor on the defensive end.

I read somewhere that he fully intends to keep playing hoops and why not!  Good money, maybe travel if he goes to Europe, delay becoming a full-fledged adult.   I would guess he is a borderline NBA bench player on a team looking for some three-point shooting.  He is not Kyle Korver in terms of body strength but he can shoot.

What a story!

He plans to continue playing for sure. I know because he's been asked to be part of the D3 TBT team... and it will depend on his professional aspirations and such as to whether he will be available. So, he's looking and will be doing what he needs to at least position himself. Whether it is the NBA or something else is ... to be determined.

[30 for 30]

JB is a great coach however totally disagree with taking DR out after the second foul. The game was clearly lost when UM went 5 minutes without scoring giving up a 7 point lead and momentum going to the half down 9. Never recovered. Looking back to the 2014 transfer of Robinson and Matt Hart it turned out well for both of them. DR earned the basketball players dream trip to the final four with many other experiences and valued contributions to UM over 3 great years. Hart was a valued contributor his junior year at GW winning an NIT ring. He earned a scholarship his senior season and was a part time starter and over two years played in all 73 GW games he was eligible for. These guys made history. Now playing professionally Hart leads his team in scoring. DR will follow and likely find one of the many places around the world to add to his basketball and life experiences while earning a paycheck.

[WUPHF]

JB is a great coach however totally disagree with taking DR out after the second foul. The game was clearly lost when UM went 5 minutes without scoring giving up a 7 point lead and momentum going to the half down 9. Never recovered. Looking back to the 2014 transfer of

Definitely a tough call, but one point that you failed to mention: Robinson picked up two fouls within a matter of 15 seconds. 

Most coaches would have taken him out after that.

The team picked up a few more fouls during that stretch.  Hard to know if the officiating was taking a turn for the worse (it seemed to me that it was).

Beilein also has Wagner, Poole and Rakhman to shoot the three.

[nescac1]

Those calls on Duncan were pretty tough, I thought, especially the second call ... seemed like a fair, aggressive box-out to me.  But in the end, Michigan wasn't going to win that game.  Villanova was simply better. 

[P'bearfan]

Those calls on Duncan were pretty tough, I thought, especially the second call ... seemed like a fair, aggressive box-out to me.  But in the end, Michigan wasn't going to win that game.  Villanova was simply better.

Agree...that second foul was a tough one...DR was simply boxing out.

[nescac1]

A few NESCAC perimeter recruits that I don't think have been previously reported here:

Bates: Cole Phaire, SG, Dunbar H.S. (D.C.)
Bowdoin: Caleb Cost, SG, Willison Northampton
Amherst: Devonn Allen, PG, Wilbraham & Monson
Colby: Noah Tyson, Wing, Rutland (VT)

None look like instant-impact sort of guys, but who knows! 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Those calls on Duncan were pretty tough, I thought, especially the second call ... seemed like a fair, aggressive box-out to me.  But in the end, Michigan wasn't going to win that game.  Villanova was simply better.

Agree...that second foul was a tough one...DR was simply boxing out.

While you might have thought it as fair, I agreed with the commentators... he raised his elbows a little too high. One of them was throat or higher level from what I saw. I think that warranted a call, sadly.

And I would have loved to have seen them roll the dice with his two fouls, but the fact he did pick them up VERY quickly would have warranted almost every coach I know to pull him. Too quick and very little wiggle room. Now, if they had brought him back later in the half... that would have been brilliant.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Those calls on Duncan were pretty tough, I thought, especially the second call ... seemed like a fair, aggressive box-out to me.  But in the end, Michigan wasn't going to win that game.  Villanova was simply better.

Agree...that second foul was a tough one...DR was simply boxing out.

While you might have thought it as fair, I agreed with the commentators... he raised his elbows a little too high. One of them was throat or higher level from what I saw. I think that warranted a call, sadly.

And I would have loved to have seen them roll the dice with his two fouls, but the fact he did pick them up VERY quickly would have warranted almost every coach I know to pull him. Too quick and very little wiggle room. Now, if they had brought him back later in the half... that would have been brilliant.

Yeah, Coach Beilein seemed to forget that he was their lucky rabbit's foot!   This season when he scored 6+ they were 29-0; when he didn't, they were 4-8.

[PolarBear16]

Man, I love the Duncan Robinson and am rooting for him, but I think it will be tough for him to make it to the NBA. Duncan can't be an above average like he has been the past two years at Michigan. He needs to be one of the best shooters in the world, capable of punishing teams from well beyond the arc with little space. Basically, he needs to do what he did against Bowdoin his freshman year when he made some shots from so deep that I thought my live stream had glitched. And most likely he will need to develop the ability to hit threes on the run, coming off of screens at least enough to be a threat. I didn't watch a ton of Michigan games, but boy did Duncan spend a lot of time just standing in the corner acting as a decoy.

The best comparison I can think of for Duncan is James Jones, someone who carved out a 14 NBA career on his shooting ability and a close friendship with LeBron. Jones was also 6'8" and not very athletic, but he was always a good enough defender and a guy who didn't have any real negatives to his game. Jones was a good enough pure shooter that he won the 3 point contest one year. That's how good of a shooter Duncan will have to be. Right now, even though there is the rhetoric of him being that good, the stats don't bear it out. 38% from three in college is a good number, but it's nothing spectacular.

The good news for Duncan is that it is now easier than ever to make your way onto an NBA roster and get a shot than ever. The two way contract the NBA now uses makes it easier for them to give roster spots to players in the G-League (NBA development league). Or guys who play in Europe get a good long look when they come back and play in summer league. Plus, wings are a constant need for NBA teams now that they are playing usually only one traditional big man at a time (if that). So if he continues to improve and becomes a deadly shooter as well as getting a lucky break or two, he can do it.