MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Phew, the Ephs barely survive their first real test of the season, beating Springfield by four on the road.  Both Heath Post and Jake Ross, two tremendous players, were absolutely en fuego in the second half.  After a quiet first half, Ross sure looked like best-player-in-the-nation Jake Ross in half two, and Post made some very, very difficult shots.  Williams didn't really have a lot of offensive continuity for much of the game, struggling to finish plays, but were saved by Big Shot Bobby Casey, who made big play after big play down the stretch.  The rest of the big four all had their moments as well, but honestly, the Ephs were very fortunate to escape this game with a win.  Great to finish the semester 9-0!

[Colby Hoops]

Colby handles Bates relatively easily. Bates jumped out to a 9-0 lead and led by 3 at half, but Colby ran away almost immediately in the second half. Sean Gilmore was dominant down low on offense with 20 pts on 9-14 shooting and Wallace Tucker played well in the second half getting to the basket and finishing in the paint. No Ronan Schwarz again for Colby, hopefully he'll get healthy over winter break -- he brings a needed dose of athleticism and slashing for the Mules.

Bates on the other hand.... They are not good. Spellman is forced to do way too much. Lynch is solid if unspectacular and Snoddy has promise. The rest of the team doesn't offer much. They are in for a long season.

[ContinentalDomer]

There wasn't much suspense in terms of the outcome, but Hamilton had some nice moments during the first half of its romp past Elmira.  Both Kena Gilmour and Michael Grassey crossed the 1,000 point mark, as the Continentals enter the winter break at 9-0.  Hamilton will play Ithaca and Ursinus at Daytona Beach in late December, followed by a matchup with Keene State in Clinton and the NESCAC home opener against Trinity.

[amh63]

For those that like to speculate game outcomes in the early part of the season.....here are some recent games results that may "stir the Pot"
Trinity loses to Anna Maria today.  Trinity recently beats Springfield with Jake Ross.  Springfield gives Williams a close battle.  Amherst wins big over Anna Maria early in the season.  Amherst loses to Babson.  Babson beaten by Brandeis.  Amherst to meet Springfield on Tues. 
The homecourt maybe a factor....as is the return of a star player, etc., etc.

[Old Guy]

I'm surprised that no one has written about yesterday's Midd-Skidmore game, a battle I was very much looking forward to, albeit with some apprehension as Midd had lost two in a row. I generally prefer to amend and add to the comments and analysis of my confreres.

I caught last year's Midd-Skidmore game in Saratoga Springs (is there a better college town?) and it was a great game, hard-fought, well-played in full gym of rabid fans.

I figured this game would be more of the same, as Skidmore was coming with basically the same principals: last year Meren had 19 points (6-9 FG), Rupkus had 18, and Ta at the point had six assists — they were all back. And they still had Gallagher coming off the bench (seven points, nine rebounds last year).

Yet this was never a game. When Middlebury went up by 17 at the half, I said to my friends, "this will be a tight game before it's over!" and I believed that, especially after seeing that Skidmore had a 6'10" and 6'8" frosh to fortify their front court.

I would like to think that Middlebury played great defense and thwarted a pretty good team — and if that isn't the whole story it certainly was a big part. Midd consistently denied both Meren (averaging 23.8 ppt coming in) and Rupkus by swarming them at the hoop.

But in truth Skidmore seemed a bit out of sorts (Rupkus spent the last 8-10 minutes on the bench — and that seemed early to raise the white flag), probably just a bad game against an inspired Midd team playing at home.

The key for the Panthers was senior Eric McCord who had started slowly this season. He had a terrific game, scoring 18 points on some nifty moves underneath, and had 16 rebounds, in a much needed rebound of his own.

McCord is a neuroscience major who has completed the pre-med requirements (but will probably not go to med school). Guard Jack  Farrell, who is off to such a great start to his soph season, studies Chinese at Middlebury, hardly the softest course of study.

I cite this not to reveal personal information but to observe that these players which we discuss so objectively are students first (as others have also pointed out). In Midd's recent losses, losses in good tight games against really good teams, we were playing four games in seven days during the most intense time of the semester academically (and we go to Pittsburgh immediately after exams on the 17th and 18th, to play Bradford and Hilbert, about which I know absolutely nothing), such are the vagaries of scheduling if you are a member of NESCAC as we are, outside the Boston-Worcester-Springfield-Hartford-CBB nexus).

Good luck in your studies, boys, and carry on! Happy holidays all!

[P'bearfan]

Bowdoin wins a tight one over USM 84-81.  Saw part of the first half and Bowdoin was deploying a balanced offensive attack.  This continued through the game and Bowdoin finished with all 5 starters in double figures.  Nice way to head into the holiday break.

[polbear73]

Actually P'bearfan, after leading by 17 with a little over 6 minutes to play, the Polar Bears suffered a mental meltdown to allow USM back in the game.  Poor shot selection, turnovers, stupid fouls, and some hot shooting by USM allowed them to tie the game late.  This is not the way to go into the break and was a disappointing ending.  Bowdoin got the win, but by the skin of their teeth. 

[Colby Hoops]

Projections and a few thoughts on conference play as we finish out the first semester.

1. Williams -- Unquestionably the most talented team in the league. Scadlock has come back looking like his old self, and the Ephs have the potential to be dominant. They've shown they can let their foot of the gas at times, but it hasn't led to a loss yet. They'll be favored to win in every game for the rest of the year. The biggest question is figuring out the backup guard/wing spots, but so far Feinberg and Babek have played well in that role.

2. Hamilton -- Undefeated at this point in relatively easy fashion. Gilmour is a star and the best pure scorer in the league. Grassey is a perfect complement and has been shooting the ball really well. They still have a few interesting out of conference games over the holidays including Keene St. One question mark is FT shooting -- Hamilton shooting only 62% from the stripe, second worst in the league. Also, a LOT of games to be played before then, but the final game of the conference season is Hamilton at Williams -- should be a great one.

3. Middlebury -- Have picked up a couple of losses, and I think the Keene St. game is one they probably should have won at home. I think the somewhat tougher schedule will help them in the long run. Watched most of the game at Plattsburgh and they are a tough and deep team -- seems like they have an endless supply of good guards and a really nice rotation of three bigs. For them to reach their potential Kornaker and Dahleh will both need to score more efficiently, as each are hovering around 30% from the floor on the season.

4. Amherst -- Tough to tell much from the early season with so many blowouts and then the really rough shooting night against Babson. I do love their depth and potential. Robinson is so talented and in more control this year, but beyond him they don't really have any players who are proven shot creators. I'm not sure they're going to get one guy to step up and be the clear second guy, they'll just need one of the crew of Cherry, Che, Day, Sellew, Schneider, or McCarthy to step up on a given night.

5. Wesleyan -- Considered dropping them lower, but I think they'll figure it out. Too talented not to. A couple of inexplicable blowouts early in the year and not having O'Brien obviously made an impact. Antone Walker is shooting just 35% from the floor and Bonner and Hutcherson are both in the low 40s. Jordan James has the talent to be way more impactful that he's been. Not a pretty start to the year for Wesleyan, but their defense has still been solid and I expect the efficiency on offense will tick up. They need to move the ball a lot better, averaging a league low in assists and the second must turnovers per game.

6. Colby  -- About as good of a start to the year as you could have hoped for Colby considering they lost Dean Weiner. Probably should have beat a UC Santa Cruz team that was only okay, but beating Bowdoin and Bates easily was nice. The big question is how the tiny run and gun lineups will fare in the conference season. Colby has taken 100 more threes than the next closest league team and is fifth in the country in 3PA! The two obvious questions are can they score at the rim against bigger more athletic teams and can they rebound/defend against the bigger teams. I don't know the answer to that, and I'm a bit skeptical that they can, but it will be fun to watch. Still hate their scheduling, can't believe they don't play a single game between now and the opening of league play.

7. Bowdoin -- Confusing season so far for Bowdoin. If you told me the individual statistics for each Bowdoin player to this point, I'd have expected a much better cumulative performance. Reynolds has been a scoring machine, Simonds has been consistently good and Rucker has taken a step forward. Yet, they've lost three games and been in a couple of nailbiters against pretty bad teams. Seems like most of the issues are on the defensive end of the floor. If they can clean that up they should be a good team and they have the talent to finish higher than 7th.

8. Trinity -- What was that loss to Anna Maria??? Yikes. It's a typical Trinity team, they grind games to a halt and play really solid defense. The offense is a struggle, they are shooting just 31% from three and they don't seem to have many playmakers. They won't be an easy out for anyone, and they'll be able to grind themselves to some wins.

9. Tufts -- Probably a bit low on Tufts here. They've played a tough schedule and faired okay with such a young team -- particularly given Savage missed a few of those games. Skewed a little bit by a couple of blowouts and that they haven't scheduled many cupcakes, but they actually have the worst shooting percentage in the league. Really balanced lineup with a so many young players. They should keep getting better through the year. Big game against Colby to kick off conference play, and unlike the Mules they have 5 games between now and then.

10. Bates -- Shared my thoughts on them the other day. They don't have a lot of talent and it could be a long year. They've played a few decent games in beating Salem State and hanging somewhat close with Brandeis and Babson, but they've also had some really ugly games.

11. Conn -- Maybe they can beat Bates? Satran's firing didn't seem to change much for them. Labossiere and Draffan still put up some numbers, but it will be another slog of a season for the Camels.

[nescac1]

On the multiregional topic on this board, someone compiles aggregate records vs. out-of-league foes.  Last year, NESCAC led the country by a comfortable margin, with a 112-33 out-of-conference record (77 percent).  This year, NESCAC has fared significantly worse, to date ...  59-26, or a 69 percent winning percentage, currently behind WIAC and NEWMAC.  So NESCAC will very likely have more collective losses to out-of-league foes by the end of December than it did all last season.  The biggest culprits?  Conn, Tufts, and Bates, all of whom are really struggling right now.  Trinity also has a few really bad out-of-conference losses.  NESCAC does seem to be a bit down, although of course very top heavy with two of the top four teams in the current top 25 and two other top-25 caliber teams, but the middle of the conference seems to be not quite a solid as it is in most seasons, and the bottom is really bad.  NESCAC has yet to earn a true signature out-of-conference win, in fact.  Is Midd's win over Endicott the best non-conference win league-wide?  That's pretty weak sauce if so. 

A shot at a current power-ranking of NESCAC hoops [note I wrote this before seeing Colby Hoops' post, and I see we are nearly identical in our thoughts]

Tier 1: national contenders

1. Williams - loaded
2. Hamilton - nearly as loaded, but haven't really played anyone yet

Tier 2: NESCAC title / NCAA bid contenders

3. Middlebury - should be an NCAA team, but there are some weak spots
4. Amherst - as of now, one fewer loss than Midd, but Amherst has yet to beat anyone of consequence, while Midd has some solid wins on the resume

Tier 3: fighting for NESCAC playoff spots, capable of some surprises, but overall not where (other than Colby) they expected to be

5. Colby - a bit of a surprise (at least to me), with convincing road wins at Bowdoin and Bates, looking like the class of the CBB.
6. Wesleyan - have beaten bad teams and lost to good teams.  Plattsburgh State is a huge game, as the Cards badly need a quality win, and four losses in the first semester would be tough to recover from considering this team's aspirations to start the season.
7. Bowdoin - four straight wins is encouraging; the margin of victories in two of those wins, less so.
8. Trinity - as always, can defend, but more offensively challenged than usual (they miss Jeremy Arthur for sure), 57 points vs. Anna Maria (a team that gave up 88 points or more in its prior six games) is just ridiculous for a NESCAC squad.     
9. Tufts - the opposite problem from Trinity, giving up 87 points per game, ouch, not a huge surprise for such a young team (and even veteran Tufts teams rarely rely on lock-down D).  When those two play it will be the stoppable force vs. the moveable object.  Tufts does however have enough young talent that if it can figure some things out on defense, it can rise a few spots.  This team's future is much brighter than its present.   

Tier 4: ouch

10. Conn College - things can only get better going forward with a new coach, but it's gonna be at least a 2-3 year rebuild looking at the talent on hand.
11. Bates - just brutal, I really thought this team would be more competitive and be in the mix for a top-8 spot this season.  They've had some injuries but not enough to explain some of the very bad losses.  Not sure what is going on in Lewiston, but if you look at the last three years, the trend is not good (15-10, then 12-12, 2-7 so far this season with most of the tougher games still to play). 

[amh63]

Nice summaries of the season to date by both Colby Hoops and Nescac1...thanks to both.  Have a couple thoughts to date on Amherst, but not much to add on the other CAC teams since I have watched few games by Maine based teams, etc.
Tues's game at Springfield will be a good game to gage where Amherst is to date.  Amherst puts several guards into its last game that played defense and can hit from outside.  Mobley hit his first three 3-points and seemed to found his groove again...an experienced player that knows Hixon's system on defense. The other was a big FY guard put in for his defensive play.....Showed he can hit from outside too.  The same size as Mr Casey at Williams.
Old Guy...you maybe close to Bates.  Can Bates compete in the Nescac for talented players?....big players?...lost of the talented Twin Towers has been part of the problem, IMO.  Oh yes, your interest in Saratoga Springs is surprising.  Like the "ponies" . Agree it is a beautiful town.

[Colby Hoops]

Sounds like we're on pretty much the same page Nescac1. Have your awards predictions changed at all from pre-season? My guess as to what it looks like end of the year:

POY: Gilmour (Casey a close #2, but the Williams guys will probably split some votes)

1st team: Gilmour, Casey, Heskett, Folger, Hutcherson
2nd team: Robinson, Reynolds, Labossiere, Scadlock, Grassey
Others who I could see being in: Jefferson, Bonner, Simonds, Farrell, Savage, Spellman
DPOY: Bonner
ROY: Noah Tyson
COY: Who knows? Right now maybe Strahorn for Colby's surprising start and new style of play.

I wonder if all three Williams guys can get 1st team. I think they may all be deserving, but it seems hard to have all three of those guys be on first team.

[nescac1]

I'd tweak my awards predictions a bit, but I'd say no huge surprises so far, and I'm mostly in line with you.  I'd go with:

1st: Gilmour, Casey, Scadlock, Heskett, Hutcherson (Scadlock has to be in the first team for all he does on both ends in my view, I think all three Williams guys will make it if they stay healthy, which might be unprecedented but hard to argue any of them are undeserving)
2nd: Bonner, Robinson, Folger, Grassey, Reynolds, Farrell (I know that's six but can't figure out which of those dudes to leave off).  Labossier might be deserving as well, but hard to judge given how badly Conn plays as a team. 

DPOY: Kyle Padmore.  Guy has always been a bulldog and so far this year he's averaging 1.5 spg and 1.5 bpg.  Kyle Scadlock, Paul Cherry and Devonn Allen if he can earn more playing times are other guys to watch.   

ROY: no one is running away with it but yeah Noah Tyson seems like the best bet.  If Sobel can get up to more like 20 mpg he is one to watch too, as are Tyler Aronson and Carson Cohen. 

POY: agreed with Gilmour, and Casey number two. 

COY: I think if Hamilton or Williams keep playing at this sort of level it has to be Stockwell or App, take your pick. 

[P'bearfan]

Actually P'bearfan, after leading by 17 with a little over 6 minutes to play, the Polar Bears suffered a mental meltdown to allow USM back in the game.  Poor shot selection, turnovers, stupid fouls, and some hot shooting by USM allowed them to tie the game late.  This is not the way to go into the break and was a disappointing ending.  Bowdoin got the win, but by the skin of their teeth.

Yikes!  Hope that doesn't happen again anytime soon.  Thanks for the update.

[quicksilver]

Actually P'bearfan, after leading by 17 with a little over 6 minutes to play, the Polar Bears suffered a mental meltdown to allow USM back in the game.  Poor shot selection, turnovers, stupid fouls, and some hot shooting by USM allowed them to tie the game late.  This is not the way to go into the break and was a disappointing ending.  Bowdoin got the win, but by the skin of their teeth.

Yikes!  Hope that doesn't happen again anytime soon.  Thanks for the update.

It as even worse than Polbear73 says!!! A USM player stood at the foul line with 3 seconds to go and Bowdoin holding a 2-point lead, only to miss the first of the 1-1 opportunity and allowing the PBs to escape an OT in a game that had been a laugher just a few minutes earlier . . So many atrocious plays to close the game out -- turning over the ball by running the baseline on a play where running the baseline was not permitted, etc . .

[polbear73]

Actually P'bearfan, after leading by 17 with a little over 6 minutes to play, the Polar Bears suffered a mental meltdown to allow USM back in the game.  Poor shot selection, turnovers, stupid fouls, and some hot shooting by USM allowed them to tie the game late.  This is not the way to go into the break and was a disappointing ending.  Bowdoin got the win, but by the skin of their teeth.

Yikes!  Hope that doesn't happen again anytime soon.  Thanks for the update.

It as even worse than Polbear73 says!!! A USM player stood at the foul line with 3 seconds to go and Bowdoin holding a 2-point lead, only to miss the first of the 1-1 opportunity and allowing the PBs to escape an OT in a game that had been a laugher just a few minutes earlier . . So many atrocious plays to close the game out -- turning over the ball by running the baseline on a play where running the baseline was not permitted, etc . .

quicksilver,  you are 100% right. This team has too much talent ( and brains) to play like that. This should have been an easy 20+ point win.