MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Thanks Dave for the explanation.  I imagine it will remain confusing until the selections come out, so this year may just be tougher to predict than prior ones.

Agree with Colby Hoops' take on the AMC game.  Albertus, while not very good on defense, has a lot of talented one-on-one players on offense (though as usual aren't terribly cohesive as a team) and Williams forced them into a lot of bad looks.  Albertus' lowest scoring game before this one was 77 points, and they only managed 67 vs. the Ephs.  Other than the Midd game when Williams didn't have its usual level of intensity and focus, the Ephs have shown that they will be very tough for anyone to score against.  To succeed against Williams you need to get easy points in transition and a lot of second-chance opportunities.  In the half-court, outside of resets or broken plays, teams typically really struggle to get clean looks from anywhere.   

Also agree that Williams' outside shooting continues to be the biggest concern.  The Eph offense generates no shortage of open looks from the perimeter, but right now (and strangely for a Williams team) the Ephs aren't hitting enough of them.  Williams has not shot the ball well from distance over the past six games in particular, and while the overall shooting stats are still good, the Ephs have lit it up from the perimeter vs. bad defensive teams (Tufts, Conn, MCLA, Fitchburg State, etc.) so the overall numbers are a bit deceptive.  When the Ephs beat better teams, they do so by being dominant on the inside, without a huge amount of success from deep.  Williams made only 21 threes TOTAL in the two Wesleyan, Amherst and Midd games ... that is not going to cut it every night, no matter how good the D is playing, as reflected by splitting those four games. 

Casey and Heskett are the only two consistent outside shooters right now (especially with losing Taylor, who had been scorching hot, to injury, a real tough blow for him and the team) and in the games where one or both of them are off from 3, Williams lacks the outside firepower it needs to balance its usually-very strong interior play.  I agree that I'd love to see Spivy get longer looks on the court.  He is still a work in progress, but has shown in limited minutes that he can drain open shots and it would interesting to see what he can do with longer stretches of play to really get into a rhytym.  He's also a competent ball-handler, which is a bonus.  If nothing else, teams have to guard him on the perimeter which creates more space to work close to the rim.  You lose a bit on defense and knowledge of the system but what Williams needs more than anything right now is outside shooting. 

The other offensive play I'd like to see a bit more of is, oddly enough, Kempton pick and rolls.  Kempton is the best screen-setter on the team and has really soft hands around the rim.  I bet the percent of made-baskets on those plays is quite high, it seems to work really well but is rarely employed and seems to catch most teams off-guard. 

Speaking of Colby, the Colby-Williams matchup on Friday should be very interesting.  Colby is obviously riding high right now after two huge road wins.  Colby leads NESCAC in three point percentage and by a MASSIVE margin leads in three point field goals made and attempted (276 makes, when no one else has even 200!).  Colby is more than anyone else in NESCAC playing a modern basketball system.  Williams leads the league in opposing three point field goal percentage, a stingy 28.6 total, and will surely be emphasizing defending the three point line in this game.  Colby is quicker than Williams and their guards will be able to create some space off the dribble, but the Ephs' recovery speed and long arms on D will still pose a huge challenge.  The Ephs of course will look to go inside early and often in this one, but Colby is accustomed to teams trying to exploit them and has managed to win some games against much bigger teams.  They haven't, however, faced anyone quite like the Ephs' trio of bigs.  This is also a game where I'd love to see Williams look to pound the offensive glass more. 

Regarding Colby, Sam Jefferson is the least-talked-about guy having a ridiculous season in NESCAC.  His overall stat line is after his recent run of success right up there with Hutcherson, Gilmour, and Casey as the most impressive in the league: 18.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.9 asp, 1.1 spg, only 1.1 TOPG, on 50/44/81 shooting.  He is scorching hot right now, averaging 27 ppg with 17-29 three pointers made over his past three games, and that was against strong competition.  Should be fun, also, to watch him try to stay hot against Scadlock/Heskett. 

[Colby Hoops]

If nothing else, the Williams-Colby matchup should be good for the most absurd height discrepancy in league play. Sam Jefferson is Colby's tallest starter and is basically the same height as Bobby Casey! Colby is giving up about 5-9 inches at every position across the starting lineup.

Sean Gilmore is Colby's one rotation player with size and he's been pretty effective lately, but struggles with foul trouble. Against Williams I think he'll be needed against Karpowicz, but I expect Colby to play very small when Kempton is in to force him to guard on the perimeter. Wallace Tucker will also be key in this game as I think he'll be able to get into the paint against any Williams guards -- the bigger challenge will be finishing effectively amidst Williams length. If he can be effective scoring in the paint it should open up the perimeter even more and give Colby a chance, if not I think it will take some exceptional shooting for the Mules to win.

An additional note, Colby's starting "center" for much of the season, Ronan Schwarz, has been out the last few weeks with an injury. It's led to Jefferson guarding centers mostly, which he's done effectively. Jefferson isn't overly quick and isn't a leaper, but he's very strong and does a nice job not letting big guys get deep position. Colby is also often happy to switch across all five positions, which leads to Hanna and Tucker in mismatches down low. Colby has been able to force turnovers on entry passes in that situation enough that it's worked out.

Not to look ahead, but the Colby-Midd game should be a really fun one on Saturday. Two teams that aren't afraid to push the pace and score.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

For the record ... many argue, I'd say probably rightly, that the SOS has become too important and taken on too much importance. None of the criteria is supposed to have more importance than any of the others, but the SOS and then the WL% have absolutely been more heavily weighted in a vast majority of cases the last five years.

This move brings the SOS back to "even" with the rest of the criteria and allows the committees to read the SOS as they deem necessary - not told how to read into it by a math problem which then tends to eliminate all other criteria.

[amh63]

A brief follow up note to my last post wrt the trend of teams using a 3-point offense.  In today's WSJ there is a sports story on the growing trend to using the three point shot.  The writer uses the D3 Cal Tech MBB team to give an analytical view of the "5 year trend/revolution" by today's teams.  Seems that today's high school, FY college and even upperclass players have grown up developing their three point shots....influence by the pro game. 
Sorry, but not capable of pasting in the story.

[Old Guy]

Not to look ahead, but the Colby-Midd game should be a really fun one on Saturday. Two teams that aren't afraid to push the pace and score.

Hardly looking past Bowdoin, but I like getting Colby on Saturday afternoon after they face the Ephs.

[Ubuntu]

Thanks for all the great insight to the tourney.   I am not sure what is meant by Pool C? 

Seems like a really good team is not getting in if only 3 get in and if there's an upset 2 great teams.

Williams with less reason to win getting beat by a scrappy determined (fill in the blank) could happen.  Especially if it is a defensive minded Trinity.

Lot of regular season left to play.

[lumbercat]

if Colby shoots 3's like they did last week on the dreaded Hamilton/Amherst road trip it could be interesting.....but don't think that will continue.
I'd like to check the record book but can't remember a CBB team sweeping that Western Siberia road trip in recent memory.

Love to see Strahorns itinerary and how they managed the road trip from hell. Wonder if he did anything different....Maybe he had a hypnotist on the bus???

I can still hear the inspiring words of the esteemed Russ Reilly at Bates when we got on that Greyhound for the 8 hour root canal to Clinton, NY.......Good Luck guys but remember "Life's tough when your traveling west"......

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Thanks for all the great insight to the tourney.   I am not sure what is meant by Pool C?

Pool C is the designation for the "pool" of teams remaining eligible for at-large bids.

Pool A is for automatic qualifiers. There are 42 of those.
Pool B is for teams and conferences that do not have access to an automatic bid (ACAA is the lone conference). That accounts for one bid this year.
Pool C is all the remaining programs that still haven't gained access who are then evaluated and selected to round out the 64-team field.

Seems like a really good team is not getting in if only 3 get in and if there's an upset 2 great teams.

This isn't uncommon. The NCAA tournaments in all divisions is not a tournament of "the best" ... it is a tournament of those eligible. When bids are handed out to conferences to determine their representative, the idea of "the best" is immediately removed from the equation.

So yes, there are always teams we will discuss and debate who are left out and their worthiness. The easiest way to get into the tournament is to earn the automatic bid. If a team cannot do that, they have to make sure they have the best resume possible according to the selection criteria.

Here is that criteria (not in order; each should be considered equal) - which is also used for Regional Rankings:

PRIMARY SELECTION CRITERIA
The primary criteria emphasize competition leading up to NCAA championships; all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed
in priority order).
●● Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
●● Division III head-to-head competition;
●● Results versus common Division III opponents;
●● Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the final ranking and the ranking preceding the final ranking.
Conference postseason contests are included.
●● Division III strength of schedule;
-- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP).
-- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).

SECONDARY SELECTION CRITERIA
If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria
listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against all other opponents from
other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).
●● Non-Division III won-lost percentage;
●● Results versus common non-Division III opponents;
●● Division III non-conference strength-of-schedule.

[JEFFFAN]

Not to look ahead, but the Colby-Midd game should be a really fun one on Saturday. Two teams that aren't afraid to push the pace and score.

Hardly looking past Bowdoin, but I like getting Colby on Saturday afternoon after they face the Ephs.

Curious why Colby is forced to play on Friday night and then Saturday afternoon rather than Saturday evening?  Doesn't give them much down time and could make them more susceptible to injuries.

[nescac1]

Colby has the same schedule as every other Fri-Sat Nescac pairing.  Not sure what you mean, Jefffan?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The Hoopsville Marathon Show ... is tomorrow!

Tune in starting at 12:00 p.m. ET as we talk to guests from around the country about nothing but #d3hoops.

It is all about celebrating the season, student-athletes, coaches, and an exciting season.

For more information, click here: http://bit.ly/2HGx0N3

We will share more about the show a little later.

[JEFFFAN]

Colby has the same schedule as every other Fri-Sat Nescac pairing.  Not sure what you mean, Jefffan?

Okay, I didn't realize that they all played a night / afternoon schedule.  My bad.

[ContinentalDomer]

The official word on the rescheduling of Amherst v Hamilton on February 12:

https://twitter.com/hamcollsports/status/1090684594691731457?s=21

[Colby Hoops]

The official word on the rescheduling of Amherst v Hamilton on February 12:

https://twitter.com/hamcollsports/status/1090684594691731457?s=21

That's a brutal end of the season schedule for both teams, particularly Amherst who will play Wesleyan, Williams, Midd and Hamilton within a 1 week stretch and 3 of those 4 on the road.

[Pat Coleman]

Thanks for all the great insight to the tourney.   I am not sure what is meant by Pool C?

Pool C is the designation for the "pool" of teams remaining eligible for at-large bids.

Pool A is for automatic qualifiers. There are 42 of those.
Pool B is for teams and conferences that do not have access to an automatic bid (ACAA is the lone conference). That accounts for one bid this year.
Pool C is all the remaining programs that still haven't gained access who are then evaluated and selected to round out the 64-team field.

ACAA and the AEC do not have automatic bids this year, which is why there are enough teams for there to be the one Pool B bid.