MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

JEFFFAN....like your picks .   Maybe I will get my earlier "wish" of a rematch with Hamilton....but not on a neutral court.  I will take better announcers and referee crews for the games.  Is it possible to get out of state ref crews?
Expect both Amherst men and women teams will leave after lunch today for the long drives. 

[NEhoops]

Breakdown of the most recent regional rankings. Wins as of 2/22 are in parenthesis.

1   Amherst (21) – plays WIL in NESCAC semifinal on 2/23; lock for an at-large
2   Hamilton (22) – plays TUF in NESCAC semifinal on 2/23; lock for an at-large
3   Williams (20) – plays AMH in NESCAC seminal on 2/23; lock for an at-large
4   Nichols (24) – plays Gordon in CCC final on 2/23; lock for an at-large if they lose 
5   MIT (22) – lost to WPI in NEWMAC semifinal on 2/21; lock for an at-large 
6   Middlebury (17) – lost to TUF in NESCAC quarterfinal on 2/16; on the bubble for an at-large 
7   Keene State (18) – plays WCSU in LEC semifinal on 2/23; potential at-large if they make the final
8   Eastern Connecticut (19) – plays UMD in LEC semifinal on 2/23; potential at-large if they make the final     
9   Gordon   (23) – plays Nichols in CCC final on 2/23; will most likely get an at-large bid if they lose 
10   Wesleyan (16) – all but eliminated from post season contention; lost 5 of their last 6 games, including their lost to AMH in the NESCAC quarterfinal    
11   Colby (17) – great road wins at AMH and HAM, but needed one more signature win; the losses to BAT/BOW/TRI hurt their cause    

[nescac1]

I wonder if MIT might slip behind Midd after the WPI loss?  It's a very close call as MIT still has a much better win percentage, but a significantly worse SOS and fewer ranked wins.  Ironically, if WPI wins NEWMAC, WPI might sneak into the regional rankings, which would give MIT two more ranked wins ... in all events it's academic as I think Midd and MIT both make it into the tourney barring a slew of major upsets over the next few days.  And actually, that would be a very intriguing first-round 2-3 matchup in someone else's pod. 

The worst case scenario for Midd is Gordon beating Nichols, Eastern Conn beating Keene in the LEC final (could Keene sneak in over Midd thanks to the head-to-head win? doubtful, but I guess possible), and a few upsets in other regions to boot.   

I think the top four will stay the top four with only the order to be determined. I think the NESCAC winner, if it's not Tufts, finishes first in the region for sure, and the NESCAC runner-up (again, if it's not Tufts) will finish second.  Williams could slip to as low as fourth with a loss to Amherst plus a Nichols win over Gordon.  MIT's upset loss is really costly as they are almost surely now on the road in round 1 of the tourney. 

[MiddWatcher]

UW-Oshkosh ( #3 nationally ) and St. Thomas ( #6 ) both lost last night.  ( along with #8 MIT ). Assuming this only adds to the MiddAngst - will wait for the Hoopsville Show on Sunday night unless someone wants to weigh in beforehand !  Some very informative posts in last few days, many thanks !

[NEhoops]

I don't think this was mentioned earlier this week but Marietta (#17 nationally and #1 in the Great Lakes region) lost in their conference tournament on Tuesday night.

Third time was a charm for WPI against MIT, but I don't think MID will "jump" them at this point. The W/L record and win against Keene State is keeping MIT in a solid position, but the wins over HAM and WIL, along with a strong SOS is keeping MID in the conversation.

There are twenty-one at large bids that will be handed out and I can project four of them already being accounted for:
 
UW-Oshkosh
St. Thomas
MIT
Marietta

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

UW-Oshkosh ( #3 nationally ) and St. Thomas ( #6 ) both lost last night.  ( along with #8 MIT ). Assuming this only adds to the MiddAngst - will wait for the Hoopsville Show on Sunday night unless someone wants to weigh in beforehand !  Some very informative posts in last few days, many thanks !

MIT and Oshkosh is stealing a spot from a bubble team - and probably the OAC, as well (Capital and Marietta have both lost and probably are safe C picks).  St. Thomas will only steal a big if Augsburg wins the MIAC tomorrow - St. Thomas and St. John are both locks at this point.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I'm not sure how Middlebury gets ahead of MIT in the next rankings. MIT has better data to stay ahead of them so far and neither had a result that would change that.

[7express]

NEHoops, I think the LEC is 1 bid league.  Doubt Keene or Eastern would stay ahead of Mid, and with at least 4 pool C slots being stolen before Championship Saturday I don't see how the LEC gets their championship game loser in.

My guess for NE: Amherst & Hamilton are locks no matter what happens this weekend in upstate New York and around the country.  MIT even with the loss should be safely in the field, as well as Williams should they lose to Amherst for a 3d time; Williams win put them in the "lock" category.  I'd have Middlebury, the Nichols/Gordon loser and the Keene State/Eastern Connecticut loser squarely on the bubble, and I think Mid makes it, the other 2 don't.  Depending on how many other bids get stolen elsewhere I maybe amending my regional picks on Sunday evening to just the first 4 (Amherst, Hamilton, MIT and Williams).

[Old Guy]

Predictions for this weekend?   I see Hamilton holding on against a rapidly improving Tufts team, largely due to home court advantage.   I also see Amherst sneaking by Williams mostly because of the slump that Williams has been in over the past month or so.

Hamilton 88  Tufts 73
Amherst 75 Williams 71

[nescacfaninbos]

Interesting first semifinal, Hamilton by 5 but wasn't really that close for the last 10 mins... Hamilton showed depth today that they hadn't shown all year in NESCAC play... Spencer Kendall with two straight dunks to give Hamilton the lead for the first time in second half and ignite the crowd.. Lutz, Denloye and Osarenren all played really well to make up for a subpar game by Gilmour and foul trouble by Hoffman.. Tim Doyle and Andrew Groll were really solid for Hamilton throughout.. As far as Tufts, they will be a force for the next couple of years, Tyler Aronson was really good today and needed to be a little more selfish as he needs to look for himself more, tough spot for a freshman but he is going to be a good one...

[middhoops]

The announcer in Clinton, NY, today is having a tough time leading into the Amherst/Williams game.
He's referred to the LJ coach as both David Dixon and Kevin Hixon.

[Caz Bombers]

The announcer in Clinton, NY, today is having a tough time leading into the Amherst/Williams game.
He's referred to the LJ coach as both David Dixon and Kevin Hixon.

these names he's mixin', his broadcasting needs fixin', perhaps he's distracted by the sight of a vivacious vixen? Or he's seen the ghost of Richard Nixon?

[Conts Fan]

I haven't seen Williams play much this year, but watching this game, they just don't seem as athletic as the other teams.

[nescac1]

Grant Robinson hits a DEEP contested 3 at the halftime buzzer to put Amherst up 5.  Williams I think has played well but has missed WAY too many very good looks on the interior and free throws to beat a team as tough as Amherst.  Ephs also hurt by foul trouble in particular what looked like a terrible second foul called on Casey on a blocked shot.  Heskett with an excellent first half for Williams, and Grant Robinson was scorching hot for Amherst and continues to give the Ephs a lot of trouble with his speed.  I understand why Casey is guarding him but he has to play nearly the entire second half for Williams so I'd put anybody but Casey on him on defense. 

Eric Sellew seems to have suffered a shoulder injury for Amherst (and if I recall he hurt his shoulder last season) which is a tough break for the Mammoths if it is serious enough to keep him out for awhile. 

[jayhawk]

I' am at work so I can not watch video but following statistics on line. Did Eric Sellew get hurt or some other issue to explain why he has played so few minutes?