MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

The strangest thing about what Duncan is doing is that nothing in his statistical performance at Michigan pointed to this.  In his first full year in the NBA, so far he is posting stats better across the board, basically in every single category, than his D1 college averages.  That is pretty crazy for a guy who spent five years in total (counting his redshirt year) playing college basketball, not many guys are better in their FIRST full NBA year than they are as a senior playing college hoops.  And his best statistical season at Michigan was actually his first (sophomore) year. 

He is so much better in every way than he was a college senior ... and his outside shot, always deadly with a bit of space and time, is now deadly without ANY space and when he running full tilt to catch the ball, from basically any position as a shooter.  He looks to me like he is making a place for himself as the incredibly rare (and increasingly valuable in today's NBA) Reddick / Korver level of catch-and-shoot specialists.  If Duncan can shoot over 40 percent from 3 at a high volume of attempts, he will guarantee himself a 10 million plus annual contract once he becomes a free agent, for as long as he wants to play.  Every team is absolutely desperate right now for tall wings with that skill set, since outside of franchise players, floor spacers are the NBA's most valuable current asset. 

As for his success, let's say 10 percent Williams (attributable to a combination of his year under Maker and his years learning from Crotty on the Middlesex Magic), 10 percent Michigan, 10 percent the Heat's amazing infrastructure and support for young players, and 70 percent Duncan's native ability and incredible work ethic.  Guys like Duncan (or say Van Fleet or Siakam on Toronto, or Alex Caruso on the Lakers) have something that can't be coached and is very difficult to predict ... the ability to, from modest beginning, work their way into valuable (or better) NBA players. 

Back to current NESCAC teams, congrats to Colby on breaking into the top 25.  Colby has been the most impressive NESCAC team, easily, this semester, and Sam Jefferson the most impressive individual player.  Ultimately, I think Midd (which seems like the most talented team if healthy, but that's a big if as a lot of guys seem to be struggling with injuries right now) and probably also Amherst will still end up leading the pack / going further from the NESCAC this year, because it will be hard for Colby to continuously shoot at the level it needs to to win three straight in the NESCAC tourney or 3-4 straight in the NCAAs.  But Colby will be playing in the NCAA tourney this year (book it), and finishing first in NESCAC, either in regular or post-season, would no longer be a big surprise. 

[SpringSt7]

I think I would have to attribute a little more than 10% to the Heat--there are few teams known more for their player development and ability to find talent. In an article in the Boston Globe last week, Duncan noted how Erik Spoelstra was the only head coach who consistently remained in contact with him after his pre-draft workouts. I also can't think of any other teams that would be willing to start a 25 year old undrafted rookie because they think it makes more sense for their 19 year old lottery pick to come off of the bench.

[nescac1]

Yeah more than 10 percent is probably right.  I was being semi-tongue-in-cheek because the reality is Duncan is responsible for Duncan and I think would have ended up where he is, one route or another, eventually.  And it really is incredible that the Heat are where they are while starting TWO undrafted free agent rookies along with a big man (Leonard) who was basically a cast-off. 

[maineman]

I watched the Swarthmore-JHU game last night because it was #1 vs. #11. My preliminary conclusion was that JHU missed a ton of layups and points in the paint.  The box score doesn't really indicate that, though.  I do believe that Swarthmore has a high powered defense that makes it real difficult to get near the hoop and contests every single layup attempted.  There are no easy points allowed.

[jayhawk]

I believe Grant Robinson of Amherst is recovering from offseason surgery
Laste two games he has started to show some flashes of his old self
Will need to work himself in

[JEFFFAN]

Many readers have been amused for years by mammoth loyalists' obsession with Williams College and all forms of Eph continuous successes.

Latest example here of deconstructing and nuancing passively/aggressively  "one of the best" stories. No one suggested any single early element of the young man's accomplishments resulted in a professional outcome. We all know and acknowledge the whole integrated story.

Nice try ....

Dude ... what the hell are you talking about?   What universe are you living in?   We are all a bunch of good natured donkeys on this site posting a comment here and there, great donkeys With a common interest in the tiny little NESCAC.   I can't speak for other Amherst followers but I've been nothing but impressed from the get-go about what DR has done.  It's an awesome story whether he went to Willians, Trinity, or wherever in the BESCAC.  Nothing but props to the young man.

Relax, please.   My only obsession is over the Patriots cheating again ...

[SpringSt7]

Now that most teams have a break until the conference season gets going, how do people think the league will end up?
My predictions:
1. Middlebury 9-1
2. Colby 7-3
3. Amherst 7-3
4. Tufts 6-4
5. Hamilton 6-4
6. Trinity 5-5
7. Williams 4-6
8. Bates 3-7
9. Wesleyan 3-7
10. Bowdoin 2-8
11. Conn College 0-10

For whatever it's worth, I don't think the league will go 52-58 this year. 

[cacfan11]

Give Bates, Tufts and Conn College another win.

[Old Guy]

The strangest thing about what Duncan is doing is that nothing in his statistical performance at Michigan pointed to this.  In his first full year in the NBA, so far he is posting stats better across the board, basically in every single category, than his D1 college averages.  That is pretty crazy for a guy who spent five years in total (counting his redshirt year) playing college basketball, not many guys are better in their FIRST full NBA year than they are as a senior playing college hoops.  And his best statistical season at Michigan was actually his first (sophomore) year. 

Like everyone else, I have followed with keen interest the exciting story of Duncan Robinson. Doesn't his performance as a pro call into question Beilein's use of him, in his last year especially, as merely a floor spacer, a decoy. Michigan never ran anything for him. Go over there and stand in the corner while the rest of us play. I went to the Final Four in San Antonio with Young Guy — Robinson had three shots in 22 minutes. Hard to believe, but is there any credence to the possibility that he was better than Beilein thought he was?

[SpringSt7]

The strangest thing about what Duncan is doing is that nothing in his statistical performance at Michigan pointed to this.  In his first full year in the NBA, so far he is posting stats better across the board, basically in every single category, than his D1 college averages.  That is pretty crazy for a guy who spent five years in total (counting his redshirt year) playing college basketball, not many guys are better in their FIRST full NBA year than they are as a senior playing college hoops.  And his best statistical season at Michigan was actually his first (sophomore) year. 

Like everyone else, I have followed with keen interest the exciting story of Duncan Robinson. Doesn't his performance as a pro call into question Beilein's use of him, in his last year especially, as merely a floor spacer, a decoy. Michigan never ran anything for him. Go over there and stand in the corner while the rest of us play. I went to the Final Four in San Antonio with Young Guy — Robinson had three shots in 22 minutes. Hard to believe, but is there any credence to the possibility that he was better than Beilein thought he was?

Like we've already discussed, there are so many factors at play in a story like this. But sometimes guys just straight up get better. You can't deny the difference in time spent on your game in college versus how much more you can improve in the NBA, especially as a guy like Duncan whose ability to success heavily revolves around one specific skill. As nescac1 pointed out, Duncan's best year was his sophomore year. Additionally, there were a bunch of guys who came through Michigan in his three years--DJ Wilson, Derrick Walton, Mo Wagner, just to name a few, that all warranted more touches than Duncan.

Citing his success now (I'm exaggerating but the point remains) would be like pointing to a first-team all-league senior's numbers as a reason why they should've gotten more minutes and touches as a freshman or sophomore.

[SpringSt7]

A quick, and obviously, way too early stab at awards:

POY: Jefferson, Gilmour, Farrell

ROY: Prowitt-Smith, Cooper, King, McPherron

COY: Strahorn

[cacfan11]

Question: Are awards voted on based off of stats and performance in the conference? or Stats and performance for the whole season?

[nescac1]

I believe it's the whole season that is considered for all-league honors, but clearly, league play is weighted more heavily. 

I'd agree with SpringSt7's rankings of the contenders, while noting that Grant Robinson will very likely work his way into the POY conversation once he is back to 100 percent, which it seems like he is now close to.  Clearly a four-man race, though. 

[jumpshot]

Breaking News!

mammoths edge Pine Manor in today's scrimmage by 50 points, lowering Pine Manor's record to 2-9, including now 4 losses each of which by about 40 points.

Attendance of 268 equals two-thirds of Pine Manor's total enrollment of 395 ....

Why?

[GoPerry]

Good article here:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/duncan-robinson-heat-nba-williams-michigan-11576095466#comments_sector

Best line:  "When he doesn't shoot, they make him run sprints."