MBB: NESCAC

[toad22]

Several random comments.
Old Guy...nothing better watching basketball live in one's college gym or in your case "gyms".
I will be in Florida watching online this weekend...with family.  Expect the third Amherst vs Williams game to be another barn burner...it's in LeFrak.
Matt Folger is quite the player.  How did Amherst not recruit him?  He is from Weston, Ct....the upscale community, next door to Easton, Ct.....where my wife grew up.  Folger's name brings to mind the Folger Library in D.C. on Capital Hill.  Amherst handles the Library's endownment much like Folger handled Rockefeller's Standard Oil of NY...as Prez. 
Folger was an Amherst alum.  Folger's prep school is in Northhampton!
[/quote

Maybe they did recruit him!

[toad22]

How about some predictions from the assembled group here?   My predictions:

Tufts / Colby / Amherst / Middlebury win round one

This is a crazy year. There is a good case for all of the underdogs. The odds that all of the four bottom seeds win is infinitesimal, but the chances of each one winning, is very good, perhaps close to 50% in each case. This will be a really good, competitive, Saturday!

[SpringSt7]

A lot of it comes down to matchups but do we even have anything remotely resembling a favorite going into the conference tournament? I guess I'm inclined to choose Tufts if only because of the fact that they have home-court advantage, but I wouldn't give them more than a 20% chance of winning. Colby is 22-2 but without Sam Jefferson I can't see them making it past the semifinals. And Middlebury might just be the best team in the entire Northeast but they have to go on the road to play a Trinity team that just beat them a little over two weeks ago.

The only thing that I will mention is that Amherst, Hamilton, and Williams have each been to the last two NESCAC semifinals, and in Williams' case, the last three. Matt Folger and Perry DeLorenzo are the only players on Middlebury's roster that have won a NESCAC tournament game. No one on Colby has won a postseason game, the Trinity seniors have won 1, and Bates missed the postseason the last two years. In what appears to be a really close slate of matchups, those types of things could make all of the difference.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The only thing that is pretty much guarunteed with the NESCAC tournament ... it is wide open. Top seeds/hosts don't tend to win and recently low-seeds seem to catch the wind at just the right moment to sail through.

[Conts Fan]

Several random comments.
Old Guy...nothing better watching basketball live in one's college gym or in your case "gyms".
I will be in Florida watching online this weekend...with family.  Expect the third Amherst vs Williams game to be another barn burner...it's in LeFrak.
Matt Folger is quite the player.  How did Amherst not recruit him?  He is from Weston, Ct....the upscale community, next door to Easton, Ct.....where my wife grew up.  Folger's name brings to mind the Folger Library in D.C. on Capital Hill.  Amherst handles the Library's endownment much like Folger handled Rockefeller's Standard Oil of NY...as Prez.  Folger was an Amherst alum.  Folger's prep school is in Northhampton!

Just a nit pick, but his prep school is actually in Easthampton...confusing name though. Northampton School for Girls merged with Williston Academy in Easthampton to become Williston Northampton School (in Easthampton).

[amh63]

Conts Fan.....thanks for the info.  Easthampton is about 10 miles from Amherst.  I'm sure Amherst coaches looked at him and he may have attended a camp at Amherst.
For Mid fans, the particular prep school is the one that produced a great Amherst player....the one that resulted in the "box out'" win in Pepin gym.  The player's father has a brewery, I believe, in Easthampton.
Toad 22...quite possible.  However, Sellew was ranked the top recruit/"big man" in Mass. at the time.

[NEhoops]

Another interesting note is that all of the road teams have already played in the gym of their opponent this year.

There will be less of a "feeling out" period, thus making the games competitive.

- In Vegas I think MID would be the favorite
- I like AMH at home, playing well and very failiar with WIL
- BAT has a change, the injury to Jefferson is a huge factor
- TUF should take of business, I agree with SpringSt7

[WPI89]

An "outsider's" prediction - winner of Williams v Amherst wins whole thing.  I was dying to pick Williams as a sort of dark horse and would have against the other 3 higher seeds - not sure they get by Amherst though.

PS - NEWMAC wide open as well - seeds to be determined there next 4 days.

[maineman]

The second regional rankings should be out later today......correct?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The second regional rankings should be out later today......correct?

Yep.

[Bucket]

An "outsider's" prediction - winner of Williams v Amherst wins whole thing.  I was dying to pick Williams as a sort of dark horse and would have against the other 3 higher seeds - not sure they get by Amherst though.

PS - NEWMAC wide open as well - seeds to be determined there next 4 days.

How about this for an interesting factoid: There has never been a NESCAC tournament final without one of Amherst or Williams participating.

[nescac1]

Interesting factoid indeed!  It's also interesting (and closely related) that in no year have Williams and Amherst both missed the NCAA tourney since NESCAC began participating in 1994.  That is pretty wild.  This year, both the NESCAC finals streak and in particular the NCAA streak are in severe jeopardy, as it's been the rare year that both teams are (relatively) down.  The loser of this game is most definitely out of post season play.  I think Amherst MIGHT have a very slim chance at Pool C if it beats Williams and Tufts and then loses to Colby in the final (a second Colby game would really boost the currently-middling SOS).  But I do think that is a long shot, and would require basically no bid thieves squeezing into the tourney.  I have to think Colby and Midd are both in the tourney regardless of what happens on Saturday.  With a third straight loss, Tufts is squarely on the bubble, but a win probably seals the deal thanks to a very high SOS. 

In all events, both Amherst-Williams games were true 50-50 games this year.  The games last year felt the same way.  Which is strange because Williams was thought to be loaded last season, and Amherst down, and vice-versa this year.  I have no reason to think Saturday will be any different.  Which isn't to say that it can't be a blow-out, either way ... truly, anything is possible with these two, both of whom have been inconsistent not just from game to game, but also from half to half.  This is also the first game that both teams have played with basically their full rosters available.  Williams was missing Cole Prowitt Smith in game one, and Spivy and Sellew missed game two.  Also, Amherst has swapped out its starting backcourt since the first Williams-Amherst game.  So that makes things even harder to predict. 

Speaking of SOS, I believe that Williams has the highest SOS in the country (.605), barely edging out Wisconsin Stevens-Point.  Not surprising, considering the Ephs have played five teams currently ranked in the D3 hoops top 20, and by another ranking, have played 12 of the top 20 in New England, two of them twice.  Williams seemed to hit a whole bunch of teams that were peaking with veteran-laden rosters this year, at the same time that the Ephs had their least experienced team in many years.  So while a 13-11 record is disappointing, it shouldn't be a huge shock. 

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Remember the SOS numbers will still change with upcoming opponents.  They aren't finalized yet, even for the regular season for most teams.

And, I think Oshkosh has a higher SOS than UWSP, too.  I bet they're #1 right now.

[SpringSt7]

An "outsider's" prediction - winner of Williams v Amherst wins whole thing.  I was dying to pick Williams as a sort of dark horse and would have against the other 3 higher seeds - not sure they get by Amherst though.

PS - NEWMAC wide open as well - seeds to be determined there next 4 days.

How about this for an interesting factoid: There has never been a NESCAC tournament final without one of Amherst or Williams participating.

Hate to ruin the fun, but Trinity beat Bowdoin in the 2008 NESCAC Championship—making it the only championship game that did not feature either Williams or Amherst. Either way I will still take that data into consideration when it comes time to make semifinal predictions.

[nescac1]

I missed Oshkosh, whoops.  Ryan, I have some memory that there was a change in which teams had to have a .667 winning percentage to be eligible for the tourney (meaning that Oshkosh is out with another loss, for example).  Is that right?  I can't recall.