MBB: NESCAC

[Colby Hoops]

Wesleyan with a statement game, handily beating a very good WPI team today--  80-56. An excellent start to the season for the Cards.

[nescac1]

To be fair, jumpshot, about ten of those points were shaved off when the Ephs had only reserves including some deep reserves in the game, App may have pulled his starters juuuussst a bit early in that one, but it was never really in doubt anyway.  The Eph bench right now is a lot more inconsistent than the starters (as you would expect!) but also was missing a key player in Alex Stoddard this weekend. 

Williams defense looks really stellar right now.  The Ephs' length everywhere definitely bothers opposing shooters and Jovan Jones does a great job on the other team's best offensive player (was great on Sean Bryan today).  Everyone on the team plays solid D, there are no massive liabilities as guys have gotten bigger, stronger, and better on that end, and the two frosh are surprisingly solid on that end and are given tough assignments without hesitation. 

Spencer Spivy had by far his best game of the young season, he was the MVP today.  Nate Karren had yet another excellent two-way game, he's made such massive strides since his frosh year and is rock solid on both ends.  Beyond that the Ephs got balanced scoring.  They moved the ball very well against Salem's aggressive zone and were unselfish.  They easily could have hit even more open 3's (despite shooting it quite well, 43 percent from 3) as the unselfishness generated a ton of wide-open shots.  As jumpshot noted plenty to clean up but looking SO much better early this season than they did early last year when everything felt like a struggle offensively.  Last year, Williams struggled to shoot the ball well all season and so far this year they have shot the 3 ball at exactly the level they need to to succeed.  Now of course the competition will get tougher but I also expect the Eph shooters will get into even more of a groove, it's just a very different team in terms of number of shooters on the floor at any give time vs. last year's suspect-shooting squad. 

Huge (and surprisingly easy) win for Wesleyan today open WPI.  The Little Three looks absolutely loaded this year, should be six great battles in those games.  Lots of hoops to play before then, but the December 4 showdown between Wesleyan and Williams is looming large on the calendar right now.  I expect Wesleyan will be in the top 25 (based on results so far they are playing like a top 10 team in fact) and Williams looks like an on-the-cusp sort of team right now with plenty of upside

Wesleyan has a ton of balance and great depth, I like their frosh point guard, Nicky Johnson, he's very dynamic.  Maccoux, Peek, and Dezonie are a very tough trio defensively on the wing, and James is an enforcer in the paint.  Their defensive stats right now are just ridiculous -- as are their overall stats, winning by an average of 40 ppg and out rebounding teams by nearly 20 boards per game. 

[nescac1]

Very, very early, but so far, in no particular order (based on results to date), Wesleyan, Amherst, Williams, Umass Dartmouth, St. Joe's, Nichols and Keene State are the class of New England.  WPI, Emerson, Brandeis, RIC, Colby and Westfield State are other teams to watch (and I think WPI and Brandeis will both be in the mix with the top group despite recent tough outings).  Tufts is still a wildcard if Rogers returns to full health soon but obviously 0-3 is 0-3 ...

Ranking Nescac teams by results so far, considering strength of opponents and margins:

Wesleyan, Amherst, Williams, Colby, Trinity, Hamilton, Middlebury, Tufts, Bowdoin (3-1 but they play a putrid schedule), Conn, Bates. 

I do think Tufts will, again depending on Rogers, rise up the list.  Otherwise it feels pretty close to how talented the teams appear to date, with the Little Three standing out and no one else looking too impressive overall thus far.  Obviously this is again based on very limited info ...

[toad22]

After the first three games, the Williams Ephs are looking a lot better than two years ago. I am still very wary of ranking Nescac teams in any order, because much of the competition has been so bad. My perception of the talent on Williams team tells me that they have at least four future all-league players. The easy four are Cole Prowitt-Smith, Nate Karren, Brandon Roughley, and Declan Porter. These four are all young first and second year players. When I watch them play, they remind me of the top Ephs from other eras. Around them, are another group of players who look like very strong NESCAC players (or at will become so over the course of their careers). Among them, Mark Taylor is a guy who has been injured nearly his entire career, but when healthy is very good. He has started the season beautifully. Jovan Jones is a senior, and a very savvy player. Our best on ball defender. Spencer Spivy is a 6'6" guard, really coming into his own. Alex Stoddard is a sophomore 6'5" guard/forward with a sweet stroke, and a huge amount of athleticism. Brandon Arnold is a sophomore 6'7" center/forward. Very strong and tough. This team will get nothing but better throughout the season. My hope is that this version of Ephs can make the NCAAs. Not an easy task.

From what I'm reading and hearing, Wesleyan appears to be really good. Williams plays them soon, so perhaps an early test of how good both teams are. In early January, the Ephs travel to NYC to play Yeshiva. That should be a great way to lead into league play, with the first two Nescac teams being Hamilton and Amherst. After those games I think everyone will have a much better idea where Williams, Wesleyan, and Amherst stands. My sense is that these will be very high level games. Some years the first half of the season is a sleeper. Not so this time.

[dman]

Really enjoying the latest edition of the Williams Moo Cow Marching Band who made an appearance at two home football games and yesterday really added some atmosphere to the basketball game!!

[nescac1]

Very interesting night of NESCAC non-league hoops tomorrow.  Ten teams (all but Wesleyan) in action mostly around the same time.  A few of the games, NESCAC teams can sleepwalk through, but there are some interesting match-ups:

Hamilton at Nichols -- Hamilton's tough early non-league schedule continues.  Nichols looks good as usual and this would be a great win for NESCAC.  With a loss, Hamilton falls to 1-3 ...

Colby at Babson -- Babson looks just so-so this year, but beating them on the road is never easy.  This is a big game for Colby if it wants to be in Pool C contention, two early losses with the entire NESCAC schedule and Brandeis still to play would be tough. 

Tufts at MIT -- will Rogers be back?  Will Tufts avoid falling to 0-4, which would be a nearly impossible hole to dig out of if Tufts hopes to makes the tourney as a Pool C? 

Westfield State at Amherst -- Westfield hung tough with UMD and may actually be Amherst's toughest non-league opponent this year (Babson and Westfield are the only teams that have a prayer of being within 20 of the FLJ's), although that's not saying much.  If Amherst blows Westfield away the way it has blown the rest of its "competition" away (especially without McCarthy, who seems like he will be out for awhile), then it starts to get worrisome for the rest of the league.  If Amherst wins this, it will cruise to a 9-0 start. 

Salve Regina at Conn -- this would be a very solid win for a young Conn team that needs to grow up in a hurry. 

I expect NESCAC will handle the rest of the games on Tuesday, including Bates getting into the win column ...

[Colby Hoops]

Agree with your analysis nescac1, although the Babson/Colby game is in Waterville.

Echoing your point that this is an important one for Colby. Babson is a decent team, and if Colby can get a W, I think they can feel okay about the start even if it hasn't always looked great.

Colby lost a lot from the '19/'20 team, but I figured an offense with shooters surrounding Will King would still be potent. To this point that hasn't been the case -- Colby's fourth in the league in 3PA per game and only shooting 30%. Going into games in '19-'20 they almost had a built in math advantage just by the volume of threes from good shooters.

I think there's enough talent with this year's team to still be good, but it's going to be a different formula for success. Jack Lawson is looking great, but he's a more of a traditional big with some outside touch, not a volume perimeter shooter. David Basich is also an interesting player -- great defensively and can push the pace, but he's not a threatening perimeter shooter. Some of the young guys with reputations as shooters haven't been able to find the floor and it's left the Mules with a fairly thin rotation. Most importantly, Will King needs to be more aggressive as a scorer -- down the stretch in 19-20 he was getting to the basket and scoring extremely effectively. Part of that is on the coaching staff to give him even more opportunities, and part of that is on him to look to score.

Tyson, King, Hanna, McGovern, Lawson are pretty clearly going to be the best five and then the hope is that Basich, Jonah Obi and Lucas Green can play well enough to provide a reasonable 8 man rotation.

[nescac1]

Congrats to Austin Hutcherson who, after a LONG wait due to redshirting and injuries, finally got into a regular season game for Illinois.  He had pretty solid numbers in his debut, 5 points, 2 boards, 1 steal, 1 block in ten minutes.  It remains incredible that NESCAC has in the past seven years sent two actual rotation players to Big 10 schools (one of whom of course is now an NBA starter).  Both were certainly unusual players for NESCAC -- Robinson, a classic late bloomer physically who was seen as a steal in recruiting even at the time, and Hutcherson, who would surely have ended up in D1 but for his history of injuries - but crazy to think that (I believe) no other D3 players over the course of several decades have transferred to, and been rotation players at, power conference D1 programs, while NESCAC has had two. 

I don't think there are any guys in NESCAC right now who look like that sort of player, but of course, the season is very young ...

Of course, for Williams and Wesleyan fans, there will always be the what could have been! 

[SpringSt7]

Colby is gonna quasi steal one---hope I can use that word for non-Middlebury games---in OT against Babson. Looked out of it and then Noah Tyson just starting absolutely drilling shots. His form looks so much better than it did as an underclassmen and now he clearly has the confidence to match the work. Talent has not been the issue for Hanna but when he is making shots like he is tonight they will give anybody a game, just need to be a lot more consistent as a group as the year goes on. Look like the 4th best team in the league to me right now.

[Colby Hoops]

Wasn't the prettiest game, but that was a big win. Colby was down 13 with 11:30 to go and held Babson scoreless for the next 7 minutes! They needed every bit of that defense (which wasn't there in the first half) as the offense struggled mightily in the second half until Tyson got hot and brought the Mules back in the game. Hanna took them home with two massive threes in OT, the second one was extremely high difficulty. Jack Lawson was excellent once again with 20 points in 31 minutes, including a huge three in overtime as well. Very gritty performance with high-level defense down the stretch to pull out that win when it was looking bleak.

Same issues still there for Colby, as the offense continues to bog down for long stretches and the perimeter shooting isn't there. Rotation is looking even thinner as Lucas Green didn't play and I think I saw him on the bench with crutches. Still, that's a win to feel good about and 4-1 is nothing to sneeze at.

[nescac1]

Tufts loses by one to MIT to start an unthinkable 0-4.  Still no Rogers.  Brutal.

Amherst eviscerated what seems like a decent Westfield State team.  They look scary.  If Robinson and Day aren't the best backcourt in the country they must be close.  But still won't know just how good they are until league play.  At worst a top 25 team.

Williams looks like one to me too.  Wasn't their most intense defensive effort today as they cruised versus an overmatched opponent.  Cole really looks good to start the year, he seems like he can score a lot more and is holding plenty in the tank. Had a ridiculous around the back move today.   Roughley gets better each game, he is a very unusual player with an innate sense for how to get hoops.  Can score from anywhere and moves very well without the ball.  He and Nate will work very well together as a duo over time.  The Ephs are missing Stoddard, and Spivy and Porter are kind of alternating good shooting halves/games, but when that trio have it going from deep the Eph offense is gonna be nasty given how they move the ball and get good looks.  We will know more about the Ephs when they play Wesleyan in a week as they are in the weakest part of their schedule right now.

I agree that Colby looks fourth best but I'd say significantly behind those three.  King hasn't made a leap forward and the shooting as Colby Hoops said isn't like last year.  Lawson is a nasty post scorer though and may be their third straight ROY (although loads of competition in a loaded frosh class).  I love the energy Basich brings, a fun player to watch. But they need more guys to hit the 3s they never seemed to miss last season. When Hanna is on they are much tougher to stop.

The rest of the league, I'm just not sure.  A lot of teams struggling early.  Who is number five?  Maybe Hamilton despite a bad record - they've played a tough schedule and their starting point guard seems to be hurt. 

Right now the Little 3 looks like three top 25 caliber teams to me, with the scariest being Amherst.

[D3.Lifer]

I don't disagree with the takes about how it looks from a visual standpoint for Colby and the little 3 but I think we are giving more benefit to looking good against terrible competition and not enough credit to Colby for playing tough teams. Outside of Thomas they have really challenged themselves. It's easy to look good beating up on the basement of D3. If Colby played 5 games against the bottom of the division I think we would be talking about them differently. We all can agree they have the best player in the junior class, the best player in the sophomore class, and Lawson who looks like the 3rd ROY in a row. Just think we have to stop comparing them to the 19-20 team. They can still be an elite team and not shoot the way 19-20 team did.

[Old Guy]

Do you think Cameltime realizes his immortality? Every time I logon and get p1 of the board I see his "Great post Jeff! Classic stuff." Where are they now? Cameltime?

Checking out the two Panthers from the 2021 class playing as grad students and it looks like they are having a good time. Griffin Kornaker is at CWRU in Cleveland (my graduate school!) and he is starting at the point and playing very well on a 6-1 team (with a 10 pt win over Hamilton): 8 ppg and 6.5 assists/game. I have friends there and they are very pleased with his play and on court leadership even as a one year player. Tommy Eastman is playing 27 minutes a game at Brandeis (2-1) and averaging 15 points and 7 rebounds. Both schools are in the UAA, University Athletic Association, which has includes members in Atlanta (Emory), Chicago (U. of Chicago) and St. Louis (Washington). D111 and they fly to games! On January 16, CWRU plays Brandeis in Waltham (where I was born!). Might be fun watching that Kornaker-Eastman matchup, though it will probably be from my couch.

Middlebury played NVU (Northern Vermont University) tonight and won 79-54. Midd was up six at the half 40-34 and were not extended in the second. Sobel was overpowering at both ends: 25 points on 11-12 shooting, 9 rebounds, 6 blocks in 23 minutes. His minutes will have to be carefully monitored to keep him in the game — we are not deep at the 5. Sam Stevens was out sick (though presumably not Covid, as everyone else played) and was not in the gym. This got Charley Moore additional playing time, a good thing, as he is a returning player on whom some expectations were pegged, also soph Lamine Cisse (16 minutes) who showed some exciting promise.

Bates had their way with Southern Maine. Baxter continue his  scoring onslaught with 25 points, and Sarr looked more like what was expected: 12 points (6-7), 16 boards (7 offensive), 4 blocks.

[SpringSt7]

I don't disagree with the takes about how it looks from a visual standpoint for Colby and the little 3 but I think we are giving more benefit to looking good against terrible competition and not enough credit to Colby for playing tough teams. Outside of Thomas they have really challenged themselves. It's easy to look good beating up on the basement of D3. If Colby played 5 games against the bottom of the division I think we would be talking about them differently. We all can agree they have the best player in the junior class, the best player in the sophomore class, and Lawson who looks like the 3rd ROY in a row. Just think we have to stop comparing them to the 19-20 team. They can still be an elite team and not shoot the way 19-20 team did.

Credit to Colby for playing and losing to a tough WPI team. Also unfortunately cannot agree that they have the best player in the sophomore class. I loved Will King as a freshman but his game looks to have stagnated in my opinion---he has not found ways to improve as a scorer and without Dorion and Jefferson it looks a lot harder for him to make plays for his teammates. He has a career high of 32 points (admittedly in 51 minutes played) so we know he is capable of scoring, he just needs to do it more often.

[Colby Hoops]

The rest of the league, I'm just not sure.  A lot of teams struggling early.  Who is number five?  Maybe Hamilton despite a bad record - they've played a tough schedule and their starting point guard seems to be hurt. 

Still has to be Tufts I think. Horrible start, but I just don't see how it doesn't get turned around at some point. Even without Rogers they have enough players to be a middle of the league team. Trinity also hasn't looked great, but they'll find their way into that middle of the league mix as well.