MBB: NESCAC

[Old Guy]

I think the reality is just that Sobel tries to block everything, such is his mindset as a defender. He jumps at a lot of pump fakes, goes for blocks he probably shouldn't, and as such, ends up in foul trouble a lot.

One block, one foul against Canton (I know, small sample size, correlation not causation, etc). We'll see. Maybe he's is reading these posts. It's been fun to watch Jeff Brown manipulate his minutes to maximize his impact.

[jumpshot]

Williams has its 16 point lead with 3 1/2 minutes left in the first half reduced to 7 as a result of turnovers, fouling a three-point shooter, and appearing to coast. Could be warning for the second half.

[Old Guy]

Middlebury wins in a barnburner in New Haven against Albertus-Magnus, 83-81. Midd up one at the half, then was ahead 6-12 points most of the second half, up 11 with about 3 minutes to go. AM upped the pressure, hit some big three pointers in the last minute and a half to get it to one 74-73. Good foul shooting in the last minute won it , 6-6 by Bobbett and Osher, who had an off-night shooting, but went 6-6 from the line and 4-4 in the last ten seconds to ice the win. Sobel and Brennan both played the second half in foul trouble and both fouled out (though Sobel FO'd with three seconds left). Sobel had a huge block with under 20 secs despite the 4 fouls. Big load for a frosh pg, but Bobbett is tough and poised — we'll live with a few TOs.

Sobel and Stevens were huge. Stevens had 27 points (8-15, 4-7, 7-9  with 7 rebounds) and Sobel had 15pts, 13 boards, 5 blocks. Good win on the road for a young team against a formidable opponent (1-1 coming in, but they should be good). When Bobbett or Osher go out Stevens becomes the 2: very versatile player. Another test on Saturday against New England College in Henniker.

[Painter66]

The Middlebury win over a very tough Albertus Magnus team in New Haven was huge tonight. It was a rough and physical game, with Midd getting punched early but hanging in there and winning a very tough game. Sam Stevens is for real and Brennan is as tough as they come. Sobel dominated the boards, and the guards figured out the press. It was a big step forward, playing a team that many want no part of. They are so young that we cannot know where they will be in January but it was encouraging for this old Midd player.

[SpringSt7]

Great win for Midd. Wish we had a couple more AMC games (think they had a COVID pause) to get a bigger sample size and understand what it means for Midd but very promising nonetheless. Stevens is seriously the real deal, can see why Williams wanted him so bad.

As for Williams, they've looked like a young team this past week. Let a 16 point lead slip down to just 2 against Worcester St tonight but showed impressive mettle getting it back up to 14 and ultimately winning by double digits. I don't want to overreact but I just don't know if I see a team that is ready to win big games late in the season---Cole Prowitt-Smith continues to track as a future AA and Nate Karren will be All-League one day as well, but they just don't have the mettle quite yet to find ways to get enough easy baskets in must have situations---everything is tough earned and hard to get---while the shooting continues to go in and out. App is an elite defensive coach and I expect that area to improve as the season goes on but as they currently stand I think they're still a year away.

Wesleyan on Saturday will be a great game and a great litmus test. Don't know who scheduled a game two days before it but it will be a challenge nonetheless!

[jumpshot]

Agree with SpringSt7's comments. The Ephs played well in the second half, good defensive effort, balanced scoring, Worcester State hit some threes, and the Ephs had several unforced turnovers. A couple of these wins have required a full team effort, as SpringSt7 points out not much comes easily.
The team has shown stretches of the upside I mentioned after their opening games. This group is young enough that the addition of two or three key players, along with the continuing development of what is in place, could round out an impressive roster with front line talent, backcourt skill, even better interior defense, and passion for the game. Coach App knows what it takes to create a winning culture.

[Greek Tragedy]

Wow. Sobel fouls out again. But it sounds like he was in at the end. Still, played only 28 minutes.

[nescac1]

I think SpringSt7, jumpshot, and Coach App's post-game comments were all along the same lines regarding Williams -- they are a bit of a cryptic team.  There is a ton of talent, a ton of depth (even with Stoddard still out), and some stretches of really great play.  The defense while not perfect has been very good -- no team has yet to crack 70 against the Ephs -- and I think will keep getting better.   But then the offense seems to get out of sync at times.  As SpringSt7 points out, this team while not really young in terms of age is still pretty green in terms of experience ... the top two players are both sophomores, there are two other sophomores (counting Stoddard) in the rotation, plus two frosh playing key roles. 

But I think that's also the case for optimism even this year ... all those guys have been making some great plays, it's just a matter of doing so with a bit more consistency.  In particular, I think both Roughley and Porter are going to, at some point, have break-out games and if they can raise their ceiling over the course of this season, that entire team's ceiling will rise accordingly.   While there is no guarantee that happens this year, I think this team may look much more polished and be able to sustain the bursts of excellent play for longer by February.  Certainly, I'd rather be 6-0 and still learning than have suffered a few early losses ...

Overall, with the big exception of Tufts (who is missing Rogers in the worst way but even without him lost a few games it could easily have pulled out ... and it's not like things get much easier with Salem, Babson/Brandeis, Nichols and Carthage as the next four games, Tufts could easily pick up as many as three more losses in that stretch), NESCAC is getting into a generally good groove after a bit of a rocky start.  Amherst, Williams and Wesleyan are clearly much improved over last year (Amherst is the hardest to judge due to the schedule, but they are ranked first nationally in efficiency and by a wide margin, just scary statistically right now).  There's a pretty good chance that the three of them end up with one loss among them heading into the holiday break.  The Williams-Wesleyan game on Saturday will be a huge marker for where each stand right now, with I'd say Wesleyan as a modest favorite based on results to date plus being at home (although they basically had even results against Worcester State this week ...). 

Middlebury, Bowdoin, Conn are doing as well as could be hoped considering all feature nearly-total rebuilds from the 2020 rotations.   All are winning some games with almost zero contribution from seniors and heavy reliance on young players, and all of them are going to be much better in future seasons for all the experience the young players are getting.

Trinity, Hamilton and Bates all suffered huge losses to graduation as well and all of them seem like they are rounding into shape, especially Trinity.  Colby suffered the one crazy loss where it took a historically abysmal shooting game to lose by one basket, but overall, has a plenty-talented starting five and the number two (so far) frosh in the league inside.  Other than Hamilton, that group is also relying heavily on a ton of young players who figure to improve as the year goes along.

Really, the league as a whole is getting very, very modest contributions from the senior class, particularly with some key seniors out with injury right now.  Unsurprisingly, the two best teams in the league so far -- Wesleyan and Amherst -- are the biggest exceptions, as each have three seniors (two of whom are fifth-year seniors) in the starting lineups.   

Speaking of Middlebury, it has a really unusual statistical profile.  They don't shoot the ball from distance often or well (fewer than 6 makes per game on poor percentage), and outside of Stevens it's not clear that anyone in the rotation is a reliable three point shooter.  They are also last in the league in turnover margin.  But they draw a ton of fouls, hit their free throws, and Sobel and Brennan absolutely crush the offensive glass. 

[maineman]

The Midd men's hockey game on Sat vs Conn Coll is postponed, although Fri night's  game vs Tufts will be played.  Since the games are both at Midd and only Conn is postponing, I wonder if there is a Covid outbreak amongst the Camels?  If there is, let's hope it doesn't spill over to other sports like basketball.

[Old Guy]

Wow. Sobel fouls out again. But it sounds like he was in at the end. Still, played only 28 minutes.

That's about right — 28 minutes.

Don't want him to be tentative. Midd has an 11 player roster, total. Room for a couple of key reinforcements next year. A lot rides on Sobel's play.

I was texting with a friend in the final ten minutes of the game. Sobel and Brennan both had 4 fouls. Between the 8 and 4 minute mark, Brennan was in there and Sobel was out — and AM was chipping away at Midd's never-comfortable lead. I was fairly desperately texting "when is he bringing Sobel back in!" Brennan fouled out — and in came Sobel for him, and he was crucial the rest of the very competitive way. Jeff Brown is coaching his tail off with this team.

I won't catch the New England College game Saturday (on video) — have other plans, a sacrifice in the interest of domestic tranquility.

[nescac1]

Saw some of the Bates-Colby game last night, a very even and entertaining game.  Bates was in control until Colby smartly threw a zone at them and made Bates shoot.  Bates is far faster than Colby but to put it mildly shooting is not the team's forte, lots and lots of shots that were not even close from outside. 

Spoiling a really fun game was what looked like a serious leg injury suffered by Bates' Jacob Iwowo in the last minute of the game.  I imagine he is likely done for the year which is a bummer, he is a great athlete (also a top-notch soccer player) who is Bates' defensive ace in hoops.  Hopefully he can come back for his senior year, that was a very tough break for both him and the team, Bates is a lot less dangerous of a team without him, he does a lot of different things on the court for them.

Bates is one of the weirdest NESCAC teams I've seen but definitely entertaining, lots of fearless drives into the lane, very little passing.  Stephon Baxter is a very talented guard, very fast off the dribble, but man the guy has never seen a shot he didn't like - although to be fair he is Bates' best shot creator by far.  Still, 28 shot attempts and 1 assist for a point guard is less than ideal.  Jahmir Primer is definitely a pretty raw talent at the other guard, he looks like a D1 athlete but alas a D4 shooter who like Baxter thrives in a more chaotic sort of game.  Colby did not have the foot speed to deal with those guys plus Simon McCormick but there are only so many times you can take your man off the dribble one-on-one before a smart defense can figure out an adjustment.  McCormick by the way is a really fun player to watch, small and just a super intense dude who you can see loves to compete.  That trio may cause teams some problems if they can learn to harness all that speed and energy into something a bit more under control. 

Sarr looked like the same Sarr I remembered only more filled out, 13 points and 19 boards in only 23 minutes!  But still not much polish at all to his game.  Stephen Ward is another good-looking young player for Bates. 

Colby was led by Matt Hanna who had an absolutely massive game, he was in the zone and hitting some really tough shots.  His shot had not been there prior to this game and Colby needs THIS Matt Hanna to beat good teams.  Tyson, King, and Lawson did their usual strong work (although Lawson definitely struggled more than usual against Sarr) but Colby really needs those four guys to carry the load every game as everyone else seems to be more of a role player.  I do like Basich as the best of the rest but he did not play so I assume he is banged up. 

[jumpshot]

amHurst practices bus riding to New Jersey to play St. Elizabeth College in Morristown with an 0-8 record having been outscored by an average of 21 points per game. St. E's graduates 40% of those who enroll, launched the men's basketball program in 2016, and trailed 21-6 after 9 minutes today. Such a pathetic waste of time, money, and respect for the players of both schools. Perhaps the new amHurst coach is simply doing a favor for an acquaintance in his previous region ....

[nescac1]

Tufts and Brandeis headed to a 4th OT.  Crazy!

Wesleyan was very impressive in the first half vs Williams, forcing 13 turnovers.  Williams fortunate to be down 7 and need to do a better job protecting the ball.  Nico Johnson is a menace at point of attack, reminds me of Jaecee Martin.  Nate Karren kept Ephs within striking range with a ridiculous half, but the Ephs badly need some more buckets from their wings this half and need to keep Wesleyan from so many easy buckets in the paint.  Dezonie and James very physical dudes down low. 

[SpringSt7]

Nate Karren!!!

[nescac1]

Tufts falls in FIVE OTs.  What a heart-breaker.  Anyone see that???

Tremendous, tremendous, gutty win for Williams.  The Ephs were down SEVENTEEN midway through the first half and I have to say I was pretty pessimistic.  Wesleyan was getting way too much easy stuff inside and Williams was turning the ball over against Wesleyan's intense ball pressure.  Nate Karren carried the Ephs on his shoulders the first half and the Ephs finally settled down on both ends late in the half to close the gap to seven.

The second half was all Williams.  The Ephs defense was basically perfect the entire half.  Wesleyan scored only 20 points and about half of those were off second-chance buckets enabled by weird bounces.  In the half-court, Wesleyan simply could do nothing vs. the Eph D the entire second half.  Big kudos to Jovan Jones, who pretty much shut down Wesleyan's top offensive player Sam Peek.  Jovan had 10 points, 7, boards, 3 steals, and only 1 foul, and the stats don't really tell the full story.  Jovan seems to save his best hoops for Little 3 action and he is not flashy on defense, but he always seems to push scorers one step away from their comfort zone when shooting.  Peek was 4-13, 0-5 from 3, four turnovers, and those were not easy attempts he was missing.

For the Ephs, obviously the story on offense was Nate Karren, what a game, 11-13 from the floor, 2-2 from 3, several absolutely gorgeous moves from every spot on the court and a ridiculous turnaround 20 footer that he drained late in the game with the shot clock running down.  He is so calm and patient on offense, with gorgeous footwork (must have learned from Karp!) and just works and works until he gets to his spot.  Cole Prowitt-Smith was also excellent, he only scored 15 on 6-13 from the floor but Wesleyan was all over him and those were very hard earned points.  He also had 8 big rebounds many of them ferocious grabs in traffic.  He's a heck of a rebounder from the guard position.  Finally, frosh Declan Porter made his presence felt with three big treys, including one from very deep.  His shot is gorgeous.  He even handled the ball a bit and looked good doing so.  He has come up big twice now in tight games, and his future looks very bright.

Williams should certainly crack the top 25 after this one, the defense alone is absolutely ferocious and will give a lot of teams trouble if they play like this, and Cole and Nate are both playing like first-team all-league guys so far this year.  Wesleyan of course has to be disappointed to collapse the way they did, but there is a lot of talent on that team and they will be fine.  Wes did miss a fair number of 3's that rimmed out and could have had better luck in that department.  They are legit this year, I'd say their biggest weakness is needing a second offensive creator in the half court besides Peek.  They have big, tough finishers inside, but need to figure out ways to get them the ball in good scoring position when the game slows down. 

Go Ephs!