MBB: NESCAC

[SpringSt7]

I think Robinson is being underrated and I do agree that McCarthy is being overrated. Robinson is averaging 14 a game on 48% shooting with a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. He will certainly help and the spacing provided with Day off the ball will help everyone.

McCarthy had a great first game and I certainly won't rule out the idea that he has vastly improved with the extra year off. Any time you can add a defensive minded senior who shoots 40% from 3 that will make you a better team. No doubt about it. But as mentioned he is a 6-7 PPG guy and furthermore, he is always hurt. Expecting him to come back and play 28 minutes for the last 15 games of the season at a level that can transform this team into someone they are not seems like a big stretch

[nescac1]

Robinson alone will make a MASSIVE different for Amherst.  He may not be an all-American at this point, but he's certainly an all-league caliber PG, still.  Suddenly Day would get a lot more clean looks and not get all of the defensive attention on the perimeter, making him all the more dangerous.  Also, then Canin Reynolds gets to be the first guard off the bench so all those guard minutes that are currently being cobbled together behind Reynolds and Day, with little impact offensively, just go to Reynolds.  Just a very, very difficult three-guard rotation to deal with especially now that Reynolds has gotten so much starting experience. 

McCarthy I don't think is such a big impact guy looking at him in isolation, but he does give Amherst what is DESPERATELY needs which is more spacing.  Right now a smart team is going to put guys all over Day and let most of the rest of the team fire away from outside, shading much of the defense to the interior.  Having two very capable three point shooters who have to be guarded instead of just one is a huge difference, plus Robinson also has to be respected from behind the arc as well.

But enough about Amherst -- Midd quietly has moved its way up to 9-2 and Stevens and Sobel continue to play as well as any pair of players in the league.  Suddenly, Amherst-Midd is a HUGE game on Friday.  Which will be the least predictable opening weekend of league play ever.  Between the huge layoff last year, lots of teams trying to shake off a month of rust due to cancellations, weird nearly (or entirely) fan-less environments which probably make home court advantage meaningless and which might mess with some players' heads, and the unpredictability of COVID-related absences on top of normal wear and tear injuries this time of year, I don't think anyone has any clue what is going to happen, other than, there will surely be some surprising results. 

[Old Guy]

But enough about Amherst -- Midd quietly has moved its way up to 9-2 and Stevens and Sobel continue to play as well as any pair of players in the league.  Suddenly, Amherst-Midd is a HUGE game on Friday.  Which will be the least predictable opening weekend of league play ever.  Between the huge layoff last year, lots of teams trying to shake off a month of rust due to cancellations, weird nearly (or entirely) fan-less environments which probably make home court advantage meaningless and which might mess with some players' heads, and the unpredictability of COVID-related absences on top of normal wear and tear injuries this time of year, I don't think anyone has any clue what is going to happen, other than, there will surely be some surprising results.

I dunno. I fear Amherst this weekend (& don't know much about Hamilton). Midd has a frosh point guard (Bobbett), pressed into the starting line-up because of the injury (perhaps season-ending) to the only experienced returning backcourtman (Goldman); we have a sophomore 2 guard (Osher), who averaged 2 minutes a game two years ago and scored 9 points, total; Our 3 (Stevens) is another frosh — he's terrific but he's a first year; our 4 (Brennan) plays so hard, never takes a play off, BUT HE"S A FIRST YEAR TOO!; then there's Sobel at the 5, I'm so happy for him, and he's a good player, but it's not like when he gets a breather, Bill Walton comes in. Today, against Skidmore, we had eight players dressed. Even when Midd is at full-strength, we are thin. Gotta love these guys — and Jeff Brown who's coaching his ass off!  but still . . . 

Middlebury's 78-74 win today against Skidmore is a good one. Skidmore's pretty good. Their 6'11" center Skoric is a good player, the best big man Alex Sobel has gone up against. Skoric had 22 points and 10 rebounds, 2 blocks (5-5 from the line). Their wing player, Eichelberger, is also excellent (20 points), and Kupstas (15 points) has a nice all-round game. I don't know if they had players out with COVID — their starters played 39,39, 36, 35, and 31 minutes. Both teams were gassed at the end of the game.

Middlebury was down 3 at the half, 42-39. Osher scored 12 of Midd's first 14 points on 6-7 shooting — he shoots well coming off the screen and has an old-fashioned mid-range jump shot from 15-18'. His two foul shots (87% FT) in the last minute iced the game. Stevens, quiet in the first half, had a terrific second, ending up with 20 points. Sobel held his own against Skoric (15-9-3), very capable play, a presence.

No fans at this game, this weekend too. Watching Middlebury play in an empty gym, no fans — told my wife it reminded me of when I played for Middlebury in that gym! Midd has come a long way! Carry on!

[middhoops]

Hey, Old Guy!  Vandy74 and I watched you in that empty (and dark, and cold) gym.
And not just between periods of the hockey game.

[Vandy74]

Hey, Old Guy!  Vandy74 and I watched you in that empty (and dark, and cold) gym.
And not just between periods of the hockey game.

Geesh cuz, are we really that old?

[Colby Hoops]

One other thing that portends more unpredictability in the league schedule is that some of the teams we anticipated would really struggle haven't been too bad. Both Bowdoin and Conn have played above expectations. Conn in particular looks fairly competent -- all of their games have been close and each of their four losses are to fairly solid or better teams. Jarron Flynn has been excellent for them. Bowdoin has been a bit less consistent from game to game, but they are 9-4 with a win over Colby.

Midd is a bit of a different category as they weren't really expected to be all the way at the bottom of the league, but they are clearly much better than anticipated as well.

After a nightmare start, Tufts is looming with Rogers back and a couple of good performances since returning from break.

Trinity, Bates, Conn and Williams are all coming into this weekend without having played a game in a month and several other teams will have just played one game. Could be a wild opening weekend -- fingers crossed for no postponements.

[grabtherim]

Anyone here from Bowdoin remember a guy named Jason Kirck who played for Bowdoin in the 90s?  He is in some pretty hot water in Connecticut where he is coaching at the Sacred Heart Academy of Hamden.  The story made me kind of sick to my stomach. Read this and judge for yourselves.   https://www.courant.com/sports/high-schools/hc-sp-high-school-sacred-heart-lyman-hall-girls-score-20220105-20220104-cxradfm7bjayndekktib5m4xam-story.html
 

[nescac1]

Agree with all of Colby Hoops' last post.  It's very, very hard to predict what is going to happen in league play.  The two pre-season favorites (Amherst and Tufts) have, in significant part due to injuries, not lived up to lofty expectations, and the teams expected to fall somewhere in the bottom tier of the league (Bowdoin, Conn, Midd, Bates) have, I'd say, all looked better than expected.  Wesleyan and Williams were mediocre teams in 2020 who are clearly dramatically improved and leading the pack right now -- but will that big leap forward sustain itself in league play?  Trinity, Hamilton, Colby all feel like wildcards who can look better or worse depending on the game.  Add in expected absences due to COVID, weird gym situations, and teams packing in make-up games mid-week, and who the heck knows how to handicap this season?

On another note, this looks like a REALLY strong first-year class in NESCAC.  Assuming sophomores playing their first season don't count, here is how I might handicap the ROY race based on what I've seen in non-league play:

1. Sam Stevens (at this point a national ROY candidate), 2. Nicky Johnson (in five games as a starter, all wins: 12/4/3, 9-14 from 3, doing all the primary ball-handling and guarding the best opposing guard), 3. Declan Porter (really started to get it going just before the break), 4. Jack Lawson, 5. Cam Schainfeld, 6. Will Dorion, 7. Brandon Roughley, 8. Canin Reynolds, 9. David Brennan, 10. Jahmir Primer, 11. Hank Morgan, 12. Jaden Bobbett.  Lots of other guys beyond that group (like Ryker Vance, but who did suffer an unfortunate injury v. Wes, and Bowdoin's top three guards (Hanin, McGowan, Achufusi) and so on are making major impacts as first-year players.  An unusually talented group of major-impact class of 2025 guys in NESCAC and I think 2-3 of those guys are going to end up as all-Americans.  All those guys are making major impacts already, many on very good teams, and of course there is a ton of unrealized upside for most of them. 

[amh63]

Gosh...nice to hear from both Vandy74 and his Cuz...Middhoops....even with a soft dig at Old Guy . 

[Colby Hoops]

Looks like both Trinity games this weekend against Conn and Colby are postponed.

[Vandy74]

Gosh...nice to hear from both Vandy74 and his Cuz...Middhoops....even with a soft dig at Old Guy .

I'm still here, amh63, although mostly I lurk these days.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed as the basketball season tries to maintain some semblance of flow, and hope that come March you and I finally will have a reason to return to the lacrosse board.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The start of the 2022 portion of the basketball season is off to a sluggish one. A number of teams are pausing team activities, postponing or canceling games, or a combination of all of the above as the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus blasts through every portion of life in our country.

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[Colby Hoops]

Wesleyan and Tufts postponed -- I believe for Covid, not the snowstorm. Lot of snow across New England as well, which hopefully doesn't impact any other games.

[nescac1]

Dang.  It's pretty clear there is going to need to be some major accommodations for rescheduling pretty much everywhere.  I wonder if the NCAA would consider pushing the tourney back one week to create an extra week for at least some rescheduled games in mid-Feb?  Otherwise a lot of games will have to be jammed into a very tight window after this wave, which will probably peak nationally in 1-2 weeks, starts to crest in February.  It's just so contagious that if one guy on the team gets it nearly everyone likely will too ...

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Dang.  It's pretty clear there is going to need to be some major accommodations for rescheduling pretty much everywhere.  I wonder if the NCAA would consider pushing the tourney back one week to create an extra week for at least some rescheduled games in mid-Feb?  Otherwise a lot of games will have to be jammed into a very tight window after this wave, which will probably peak nationally in 1-2 weeks, starts to crest in February.  It's just so contagious that if one guy on the team gets it nearly everyone likely will too ...

The only place that's an issue is the final four - those are the venues that aren't on host campuses and so the scheduling is not as easy.  The women might be able to pull it off (they already moved their games to Thu-Fri to accommodate a venue issue), but I'd be very surprised if the Ft Wayne Civic Center was open the next week.

I suspect you'll be more likely to see expanded conference tournaments, so that teams who weren't able to play a full schedule still have access to the AQ.  A number of conferences are toying with just putting everyone in a tournament at the end of the year.

I guess, with the NESCAC, it'll come down to institutional willingness to schedule weekday games.  And that's definitely a crap shoot.