MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Tufts (as reflected by its recent results) has really improved dramatically on defense since the start of the season.  I'm not sure what the difference, schematic, or learning the new coach's schemes, or just different rotations, but Tufts looks like a totally different team defensively than it did when it was routinely giving up 80 plus points.  And Tufts is doing a very good job penetrating and dishing for easy looks.  Williams defenders not moving their feet well enough to contain the penetration and also have lost some shooters on the perimeters entirely.  Thoerner is a guy you can't leaver open, certainly.

The good news for Williams is that everyone is now back.  The bad news is that Williams, at this point, looks like a totally different team than it did before the long COVID break. All the things that it was doing well -- moving the ball really crisply for good looks, hitting good looks from 3, working the ball into the paint on offense, boxing out to avoid second chance points from the opposing offense, avoiding fouls, and smart rotations to avoid open three point attempts -- just aren't there for the Ephs yet.  In particular, the timing on passes seems way, way off.  Nearly everyone on Williams looks a step slow to react on both ends right now.  Hopefully in the second half they start to get more into their regular groove. 

[nescac1]

Williams played much more characteristically down the stretch after getting down 20 early in the second half but it was just way too much of a deficit to overcome.  Nate Karren had an absolutely heroic game for Williams, dominating the match-up with Luke Rogers, what an incredible game for him doing it inside and out.  He's won every center match-up this season and has been at his best vs. the best opponents. 

Evan Glatzer, Alex Stoddard, and Jovan Jones all had some nice moments for the Ephs as well.  Really rough game for the Eph starting backcourt especially for Cole Prowitt-Smith, who just seemed out of synch from the get-go and did not look like himself. 

Tufts played very well and shot the ball really well.  Aronson, Thoener, Brady and Morris have collectively had some shooting struggles this year, but they were certainly money today, hitting big shots every time Williams threatened to make it interesting.  Tufts needs to win out obviously to get into the NCAA tourney but that's certainly possible (although I do think Wesleyan goes into the NESCAC tourney as the favorite, for certain). 

As for the Ephs, it was at least good to see them look like the Ephs in the second half.  Hopefully tomorrow they start out playing that way but at this point, I think the best they can hope for is fourth place in NESCAC since even if they finish with the same number of losses at Midd, they would not get the benefit of the tie-breaker having played two fewer games.  Just a bummer.  Still time this season for the Ephs to bounce back and get back to where they were before the season was interrupted but it has to start tomorrow for them ... Ephs probably need two more wins this year to feel like they have a Pool C bid locked up, at this point. 

Looking at the NESCAC tourney, Wesleyan has the first seed locked down, Midd and Tufts are playing in a fairly meaningless game (in terms of seeding, Midd could certainly use that one for Pool C) for the 2nd seed tomorrow.  Williams needs to beat Bates to lock up the fourth seed and a home game in round one.  Either way, Williams and Amherst are locked in to a first round game (which is where neither of them wanted to be, certainly), where the winner very likely gets Wesleyan.  So, two more Little 3 games still to play.  Everyone else is in the play-in. 

[jumpshot]

Notice that amHerst lost to both Trinity and Connecticut College this weekend. Removing their 8 victories in scrimmages from a 15-8 nominal record leaves them with a losing season of 7 and 8. Tournament still to come ....

[Bucket]

Notice that amHerst lost to both Trinity and Connecticut College this weekend. Removing their 8 victories in scrimmages from a 15-8 nominal record leaves them with a losing season of 7 and 8. Tournament still to come ....

Poor Trinity and Conn, tho. They both lose an opportunity to pass Amherst in standings/seeding because they don't get their games with Williams. Not that either would be favored, but you'd think they'd like the chance to win a game that would elevate either into the 4-5 game and knock Amherst down due to tiebreakers.

[midrangepullup]

Trinity and Conn came to play this weekend. Two tough wins over Amherst and Hamilton. Both teams have really impressed this year, especially when looking back to '19-'20. Both are trending in the right direction for playoff time. Trinity held Hamilton to 32 while Conn held Robinson and Day on Amherst to a combined 3 points.

[Old Guy]

I'm off to the Bates-Williams before long (will be following closely the Midd-Tufts game while there: technology!) — want to get a word in on Bates-Midd yesterday. Midd won by 17 (69-52), but the Bobcats led 45-43 halfway through the second half. A good win for Midd. Bates played an aggressive, physical defense that got to the Panthers at times. Bates couldn't overcome their shooting woes at the end. Sobel had 20 well-earned points (8-12 from the line) with 11 boards and two blocks. Nothing was easy. Bates played Stevens very effectively, doubling on the baseline and forcing very quick releases from three (3-7): he drew a crowd (14 points, 5-11). Brennan was huge, going all-out as usual: 11 points (5-7), 12 rebounds (6 offensive) in 33 minutes. Great effort by Bobbett who was hounded full-court the whole game by Primer, a quick, strong Bates guard, only turning the ball over three times. The starters played their usual, big minutes, so I asked rhetorically "what will they have left for Tufts," and was told by a Midd parent, "Relax, they're 20 years old." We'll see.

[SpringSt7]

Tufts hangs on to beat Middlebury and finish out league play at 8-2. We gave Ryan a lot of crap for his top 25 ballot but Tufts is very clearly one of the 25 best teams in the country at this point in time.

What's been crazy is how non Luke Rogers related their turnaround has been. While the reigning POY has no doubt played great, save for a 32 point outburst against Bates, he is averaging just 13.3 points per game on 49% shooting in their 7 other conference wins. Their change in fortune has really been spurred on by better defense and the growth of their guards, namely Dylan Thoerner (a 1st team all-league guy for me), Tyler Aronson, and the return of a healthy Carson Cohen.

[SpringSt7]

Nate Karren from 3 this weekend: 6-11
The rest of the Ephs: 7-37

Williams hopefully shakes off the rest of the rust with a 12 point win over Bates. They looked less than complete offensively again but attacked the offensive glass and got to the foul line. Despite the rust, they seemed pretty locked in defensively and in relatively okay physical condition. If not for Jahmir Primer's heroics, Bates would have struggled to break 50 today.

Now onto Amherst, their 4th meeting in the NESCAC tournament in 5 years, but the first time in Chandler. Despite Amherst's struggles this game is going to be close almost no matter what. While it is unfortunate that the Ephs were ultimately the only team that was unable to reschedule its games (plus its opponents in Trinity and Conn College), the extra game could be a blessing in disguise if it allows them to best return to their pre COVID prime and also add another potentially regionally ranked win.

[jumpshot]

Ephs grind out a win at Bates 72-60 on a poor shooting day (5-26 from distance) as Bates commits 26 fouls enabling the Ephs to score 23 of 32 from the line. Enjoy the ride home .... have always believed the refs in Maine need to get out more often to see how today's game is played ....

[nescac1]

Williams gets a badly-needed W vs. Bates.  For the first time since the COVID layoff, Williams seemed to be playing at full speed in terms of movement and reactions on both ends.  They just could not hit an outside shot all day, with their best shooters missing wide open looks that they normally nail.  But they certainly got the looks they wanted on offense and the D, while not QUITE where it was before the layoff, was certainly solid.  Nate Karren and Cole Prowitt-Smith both had very good games for the Ephs, great to see Cole bounce back from an off night against Tufts and look more like himself.  Very well-rounded contributions by the Ephs as all ten guys got in the scoring column and everyone (again, other than the shooting) had good moments on the floor.

It's a shame Bates has had so many injuries this year, they've been jinxed, as I really do think they have a lot of talent and next year could be a big surprise team.  Primer is a very exciting player to watch and I can't believe he was apparently a pure walk-on player.  Certainly the best at NESCAC since Thompson at Midd.  His touch while improving over the course of the year is still a work in progress but man he can get by anyone especially in the open court, and he is relentless on both ends. Stephen Baxter is also of course a very talented player.  Bates missed its big men today as Williams killed them in the paint, which the Ephs needed to do given the off shooting night. 

It seems like Williams and Amherst play nearly every NESCAC tournament, and this year will be no exception.  It's a bummer they didn't get a shot at the three seed but without playing Trinity and Conn, they don't have that opportunity.  At this point, though, it's elimination time for everyone so regardless of seeding, just have to win games.  If Williams can play like this overall and shoot the ball more characteristically, they will be a very tough out. 

As for Tufts, their defense has just gotten SO much tougher.  Maybe it was adjustment to a new scheme, not sure what the explanation is, but they are clearly playing as well as anyone in NESCAC right now (not better than Wesleyan, but very close to that level) and the defensive improvement, plus shooting it a bit better from outside, have been the reason.  They are very physical and very aggressive on defense and don't give a lot of room to breathe right now.  Tufts and Midd may have a rematch quite soon in the NESCAC semis but either of them could certainly be upset in the tourney.  Trinity seems to be playing well and it probably the dark horse among the play-in teams right now.  Colby, Hamilton and Bates are just too banged-up.  Conn, I think, still a year way from being interesting.  But they are on a big-time upwards trajectory and just need more experience. 

[nescac1]

NCAA situation for NESCAC teams at the end of the regular season:

Wesleyan is a lock for Pool C, Williams is a lock with another win and in very strong position even with a loss (the three wins over Midd, Wesleyan and Amherst are very big for Pool C purposes), Middlebury needs at least one win, maybe two, to get in.  Everyone else needs to win the league.  If Wesleyan or Williams win the league, they are certainly hosting at a least a pod and maybe hosting all the way to the Final Four.  Wesleyan is probably hosting a pod no matter what happens in the league tourney. 

NESCAC awards situation: POY is not one of the stronger fields we've seen.  I'd say Sam Peek, Nate Karren, and Alex Sobel are the three contenders, likely in that order, but it really depends who has the best NESCAC tourney among those three.  ROY: Sam Stevens is still the big leader but Nicky Johnson is making it interesting with his late-season run, he could steal it with a HUGE NESCAC tourney.  Two really strong candidates.  COY: wide open, still. Riley, Brown, App and Linton are the contenders with the winner of the league probably winning the award.

All NESCAC candidates ... I think that Colby, Hamilton, Bowdoin, Bates, Conn are not gonna have all-NESCAC guys.  Donald Jorden will be on first or second team but the remaining nine guys will be from the top five teams.  I'd say Peek, Karren, Sobel, Thoerner and Jorden are locks.  That leaves James, Johnson, Stevens, Osher, Prowitt-Smith, Robinson, Rogers and Day - eight guys for five spots.  Day, Rogers and Johnson would need to have really big NESCAC tourneys, but all three are certainly capable of doing so. 

[SpringSt7]

Hard to believe but Wesleyan is the first team to win 9 NESCAC games since Trinity did it in 2015-16. They were a Grant Robinson three away from being the first team to go 10-0 in the NESCAC since the 2013 Amherst team that won the National Championship.

[nescac1]

I see no reason why Wesleyan can't contend for its first final four the way they are playing right now.  The emergence of James and Johnson in recent weeks gives them three legit go-to guys and their role guys are tough, athletic and fearless.  Playing with a ton of confidence right now ... they are underrated in the poll as they have a lot of strong wins (Williams, WPI, Midd, Amherst, Tufts ...) and their losses are certainly respectable. 

[Old Guy]

Tufts-Midd started at 1:00; Wms-Bates at 2:00. Watched the Midd game online in an increasing state of despair: Tufts couldn't miss, Midd looked disorganized and overmatched. Tufts was up 18 when I left for the Bates game. When I next checked in, the score was tied. Would love to have seen that comeback. Well done, Panthers!

Bates couldn't handle Williams' size. The Ephs sure look like a D1 team. Not just big, really TALL! And not big lugs, but fast and agile players. The contrast to Bates couldn't have been more dramatic, especially as Sarr has apparently left the team. Bates starts 5'10", 5'8", 6'2", 6'1", 6'8"; the Ephs start 6'4", 6'6", 6'6", 6'7", 6'9" — and they bring off the bench 6'7" (Arnold), 6'6" (Stoddard), 6'8" (Taylor), 6'8" (Roughly).

Bates is game, they play hard, and they gave the Ephs a battle, getting it to within ten on a number of occasions in the second half. Primer had a terrific game for Bates at both ends. He gets right in the shirt (and the head) of the opposing PG, Bobbett last night and Prowitt-Smith this afternoon. He scored 25 points (on 9-18 shooting, 2-4 from three, 5-5 at the line) with 6 boards and 4 assists. He really competes, could be really something down the road.

The tourney should be fun!

[nescac1]

Old Guy, why do you say Sarr left the Bates team?  He is still listed on the roster.  I just assumed he was out with COVID and/or an injury.  Seems like he and Iwowo have been banged up much of the year.  If those guys can come back healthy next year, and Primer, Baxter, McCormick, and Bates' other young perimeter guys keep making the sort of strides they seem to have made throughout the course of this year, I still think Bates can be really tough next year.  They've had a lot of bad luck this year it seems with loads of guys in and out of the lineup and some very close conference losses that easily could have gone the other way. 

As for Williams, the Ephs are indeed huge.  But of course, size, while it helps a lot (especially on defense) isn't everything.  Williams doesn't have even one guy in the rotation who I'd say has above average speed / quickness among NESCAC teams (a few guys are average but that's it).  While there is plenty of athleticism, what the team lacks is that explosive first-step blow-by kind of quickness.  So the size isn't a magic cure-all, when the team is out of sync, as it was vs. Wesleyan and Tufts, the offense can look very sluggish and the D can seem a step late on everything.  Williams really is all about making quick MENTAL decisions on both ends of the floor and the Ephs seemed back to reacting quickly on both ends against Bates (again, the shots weren't falling yesterday, but Williams got the type of shots it wanted on nearly every possession).  Defensively, Primer is the kind of guy who is going to give the Ephs problems but fortunately there aren't too many guys with that kind of explosive open-court ability in the league.  Because the Ephs don't have a lot of individual quickness they have to work together on both ends.  When that happens, certainly, all of the size and skill makes things very difficult on opponents.  But it's not a magic bullet and superior speed usually trumps superior size, all other things being equal.  For the Ephs' the magic bullet is that they can get crazy hot as a team from the perimeter, and they are going to need at least one, maybe more than one, game like that to win the NESCAC title, I'd guess.