MBB: NESCAC

[JEFFFAN]

For me, Amherst is the mystery team of the league.  Tons of athleticism and great, experienced guards, maybe the best duo in a league full of good backcourt players.  Lots of length and depth, too.  They have the ability to rise up, but an alarming tendency to underwhelm at times.  They could beat any team in the league or flame out in a hurry.

I wish that I could go along with this but this team has not performed anywhere close to a high level this season.   Yes, the guards are good and it is nice to see McCarthy back, but beyond that this team isn't much to write home about.   I certainly will be rooting for them on Saturday but I wouldn't bet a plugged nickel that they beat Williams in Billytown.   Nice career for Robinson and Day come to an end in a few days and then I guess we get to start to see the post-Hixon era come into view.  I am not optimistic based on what I saw this season.

[nescac1]

First, it's a bit premature to close the books on the Amherst season.  Amherst is plus 2 overall in two games vs. Williams this year.  Home court advantage seems to matter not one whit when these two teams play in recent years (certainly not this year).  And while I do think Williams is the better overall team, we haven't really seen Williams get back (yet) to the level it was at before its season was interrupted by COVID, and in Williams-Amherst games, which team has the better overall record barely seems to matter, anyway.  Amherst certainly had a really bad weekend v. Conn and Trinity, but it had won five straight prior to that, including an impressive win over Wesleyan. 

Regarding Sears, I think we really need a few more years to judge.  While he inherited a great group of fifth-year seniors, Amherst is not getting much at all from the three classes he inherited below that.  His own recruits have looked really good so far and his incoming recruiting class seems strong on paper as well, but next year will be a bit challenging just because there aren't going to be a lot of upperclassmen making big contributions.  But it's not fair to criticize him too much because he did not take over the program at its Hixonian peak.  In the four previous seasons, Amherst lost 8, 9, 5 and 8 games, so this (weird COVID) year hasn't been dramatically off the recent trend.   

The one thing I do find really strange is that his rotation has seemed to expand over the course of the season.  By this point, I think you really want to stick with your best 10 (at most) guys, as I think it can't help confidence or rhythm for so many guys to cycle in and out of games and not really feel confident in their roles.  It's basically McCarthy, Day and Robinson out there and in the other two spots it seems like another 12 guys cycling in and out with no consistent minutes from game to game.  Clearly Amherst has a lot of guys up front with a fairly similar level of ability, but at some point, you just have to pick a few guys and run with them ... for example I thought Scherer was really developing into a problem for opposing teams, and certainly gave Sobel and Karren as much trouble as any other big guy did, but now he's been coming in for just a few minutes here and there. 

[Colby Hoops]

First, it's a bit premature to close the books on the Amherst season.  Amherst is plus 2 overall in two games vs. Williams this year.  Home court advantage seems to matter not one whit when these two teams play in recent years (certainly not this year).  And while I do think Williams is the better overall team, we haven't really seen Williams get back (yet) to the level it was at before its season was interrupted by COVID, and in Williams-Amherst games, which team has the better overall record barely seems to matter, anyway.  Amherst certainly had a really bad weekend v. Conn and Trinity, but it had won five straight prior to that, including an impressive win over Wesleyan. 

Regarding Sears, I think we really need a few more years to judge.  While he inherited a great group of fifth-year seniors, Amherst is not getting much at all from the three classes he inherited below that.  His own recruits have looked really good so far and his incoming recruiting class seems strong on paper as well, but next year will be a bit challenging just because there aren't going to be a lot of upperclassmen making big contributions.  But it's not fair to criticize him too much because he did not take over the program at its Hixonian peak.  In the four previous seasons, Amherst lost 8, 9, 5 and 8 games, so this (weird COVID) year hasn't been dramatically off the recent trend.   

The one thing I do find really strange is that his rotation has seemed to expand over the course of the season.  By this point, I think you really want to stick with your best 10 (at most) guys, as I think it can't help confidence or rhythm for so many guys to cycle in and out of games and not really feel confident in their roles.  It's basically McCarthy, Day and Robinson out there and in the other two spots it seems like another 12 guys cycling in and out with no consistent minutes from game to game.  Clearly Amherst has a lot of guys up front with a fairly similar level of ability, but at some point, you just have to pick a few guys and run with them ... for example I thought Scherer was really developing into a problem for opposing teams, and certainly gave Sobel and Karren as much trouble as any other big guy did, but now he's been coming in for just a few minutes here and there.

There's a lot placed on the shoulders of Robinson and Day, but they just haven't been able to score efficiently enough for Amherst to be as good as some thought they could be (hand up!). They are both shooting below 40% from the field and Day has really struggled other than a nice stretch early in the season. The two combined for 3 points on 1-17 shooting against Conn. I think Sears probably has some blame for not having an offense that creates easier looks (playing two non-shooting bigs a lot clogs up the paint), but when your best two players struggle like that it's going to be tough sledding.

Now if Day and Robinson get it going, I think Amherst is still going to be an extremely tough out, but that hasn't been the case much lately.

[JEFFFAN]

That is where I am on this as well.  Not a basketball team in the country that can effectively shoot threes if there is no semblance of an inside threat, which is what Amherst has failed to do for whatever reasons.  We all know that D3 hoops is about shooting three pointers effectively but it only works with spacing of which there is virtually none with this team.   No reason for opponents to respect the inside game playing against Amherst.   That is ultimately on the coaching staff, I think, to either create an inside presence or work enough of an inside game to make opponents respect the effort.

Absolutely it is too early on Sears!   I am not as sanguine on the recruiting because it appears to be a bunch of 6'6" or taller guys in a league that succeeds on guard play.   Hope I am wrong.

[Greek Tragedy]

So, POTY?

It was Sobel as the run away leader awhile ago. He's cooled off. Sam Peek? Surely, not Baxter on a bad Bates team. Rogers making a late run with Tufts' success?

[nescac1]

I think Sobel, Peek and Nate Karren are the three best candidates and if one of them has a big run in the NESCAC tourney and his team wins I think he would be the guy.  Any one of Thoerner, Baxter, Rogers, Stevens, Robinson and Jorden could all enter the convo with a massive performance in the NESCAC tourney but I think it will be one of those three.  Right now, I'd give Sobel a slight edge but he is no longer the runaway leader like he was early in the season. 

[Colby Hoops]

So, POTY?

It was Sobel as the run away leader awhile ago. He's cooled off. Sam Peek? Surely, not Baxter on a bad Bates team. Rogers making a late run with Tufts' success?

I think Sobel, Peek and Nate Karren are the three best candidates and if one of them has a big run in the NESCAC tourney and his team wins I think he would be the guy.  Any one of Thoerner, Baxter, Rogers, Stevens, Robinson and Jorden could all enter the convo with a massive performance in the NESCAC tourney but I think it will be one of those three.  Right now, I'd give Sobel a slight edge but he is no longer the runaway leader like he was early in the season. 

I think Peek is likely the favorite given Wesleyan's team success and his stellar play in conference games. Wouldn't argue with Sobel either, but his shooting numbers haven't been great in Nescac games.

Karren probably third, and he's been extremely efficient, but the total numbers don't quite stack up to the other two. I think he's more the leader of that third pack. Would be very surprised if it wasn't Peek or Sobel barring craziness in the conference tourney.

[names jaismith]

Gotta be Peek. Can score at rim, midrange or deep.  Excellent off the dribble.  Good passer, too, and a solid defender.  No one has been able to stop him one on one.  Put him on any of the second, third, fourth or fifth seeded teams and they'd be the top seed.  Could single handedly take Trinity or Conn into the top three or at worst fourth.

[nescac1]

I think Peek might have the best resume but not accurate to say "no one" shut him down - in the first Williams game, Jovan Jones held him to 8 pts, 4 tos, 4-13 shooting.

In the NCAA's top 16 reveal, Wesleyan was 4 and Williams 15.  If Wes wins out, they are almost surely hosting through the final four.  Williams needs a win or two to host a pod in the first round. 

[SpringSt7]

I can't remember a year where the line between contenders and non contenders in the NESCAC seemed so clear. It's so hard to see somehow outside of Wesleyan, Williams, or Tufts winning the league this year. Middlebury has some firepower but beating two of James/Karren/Rogers seems like a big ask and I just don't think Amherst has the depth or consistency this time around, despite the star power.

Usually it feels like you can at least chart a path for maybe the top 6 teams to at least stir the pot a little. I'd be pretty shocked if any team outside of the top 4 played in the championship game.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I can't remember a year where the line between contenders and non contenders in the NESCAC seemed so clear. It's so hard to see somehow outside of Wesleyan, Williams, or Tufts winning the league this year. Middlebury has some firepower but beating two of James/Karren/Rogers seems like a big ask and I just don't think Amherst has the depth or consistency this time around, despite the star power.

Usually it feels like you can at least chart a path for maybe the top 6 teams to at least stir the pot a little. I'd be pretty shocked if any team outside of the top 4 played in the championship game.

That's what the rest of the country is hoping, anyway.

[AmherstStudent05]

I can't remember a year where the line between contenders and non contenders in the NESCAC seemed so clear. It's so hard to see somehow outside of Wesleyan, Williams, or Tufts winning the league this year. Middlebury has some firepower but beating two of James/Karren/Rogers seems like a big ask and I just don't think Amherst has the depth or consistency this time around, despite the star power.

Usually it feels like you can at least chart a path for maybe the top 6 teams to at least stir the pot a little. I'd be pretty shocked if any team outside of the top 4 played in the championship game.

Funny, to me it isn't clear at all (although I haven't gotten to watch near enough Nescac hoops as I would have liked). Covid may be a big reason why, I suppose but I'm not sure I have much confidence in anyone outside of probably Wesleyan. Tufts was left for dead at the beginning of the season (and it was a bigger problem then just a brief, poor stretch of play without Rogers) and I am still not sure I trust them. I could easily see Amherst beating Williams (who hasnt looked at all dominant since it's Covid issues) and then perhaps going on a run.

In terms of a clear hierarchy within the NESCAC I don't think anything will ever top 2013. Amherst was the one seed and was undefeated in league play. Williams was the 2 seed with its only conference loss coming to Amherst. Midd was the three seed — losing only to Amherst and Williams. Tufts was the four seed, losing only to Amherst, Williams and Midd. Those top four seeds comprised the NESCAC semifinals and the top seed beat the second seed in the Championship (other Amherst posters will disagree but Williamson's ridiculous, game-clinching block of Epley's runner is likely my favorite Amherst basketball "play" of all time).

[Old Guy]

Watching Conn vs Bowdoin: quite frustrating. The announcer (ass't AD at CC, former women's coach at Bowdoin) does NOT announce the game and identify the players — who made the shot, who got the rebound. Just talks. Does she have the team rosters?

[deiscanton]

Watching Conn vs Bowdoin: quite frustrating. The announcer (ass't AD at CC, former women's coach at Bowdoin) does NOT announce the game and identify the players — who made the shot, who got the rebound. Just talks. Does she have the team rosters?

I guess commentary is one thing that both Christy Thomaskutty and Pam Roecker are better at than Stefanie Pemper. 

[quicksilver]

Watching Conn vs Bowdoin: quite frustrating. The announcer (ass't AD at CC, former women's coach at Bowdoin) does NOT announce the game and identify the players — who made the shot, who got the rebound. Just talks. Does she have the team rosters?

You should have heard her when she called a Conn College hockey game!!! She not only did not identify the players but she also knew almost nothing about hockey!!