MBB: NESCAC

[SpringSt7]

Williams squeaks by Amherst 70-66. Amherst cut a 12 point lead to 1 but couldn't get any closer. This rivalry just always delivers and today was no different, no one really seemed to bring their A game on either side except for Nate Karren and Cole Prowitt-Smith, although Amherst's deep group of freshmen continue to impress, namely Ryker Vance today. Ultimately late FTs and rebounding was the difference.

[AmherstStudent05]

Amherst falls to Williams 70-66 in a sloppy but fun game that saw Amherst come up just short on what would have been an epic comeback in the final minute.

Always stinks for the season to end and it obviously stings even more when you are sent home by your archrivals. Congratulations to our seniors who have had to endure Covid and multiple coaching changes during their time at Amherst. Grant Robinson (who did not have his best game today unfortunately) almost single-handedly led us to the NESCAC Championship 3 years ago. Garrett Day is another member of the 1000 point/All-NESCAC club. Tim McCarthy's career was obviously hampered by injuries but he sure ended on a high note — he was terrific today. Devonn Allen was also a key player for us every year of his Amherst tenure.

Karren and Prowitt-Smith were just a little too much for us today. While we showed tremendous grit and competitiveness, if you can't consistently make baskets basketball turns out to be a hard game. We played 14 players in the first half — I appreciate depth as much as the next guy but I have to confess, respectfully, I was unable to discern a method to the "madness" of our first half substitution patterns.

We have a lot of young talent going forward but also some obviously big shoes to fill. Either way I am already looking forward to it!

[jumpshot]

EPHS end the lordjeffs' season by winning 70-66 in Williamstown. Puzzling season for amherst, something missing, perhaps hixon culture .... or simply fatigue. Good win for a determined and unselfish EPH team ....

[nescac1]

Great win for the Ephs!  This certainly locks up a Pool C, although obviously Williams is hoping for more.  I feel like half of the Williams-Amherst games over the past five years ended with a 70-66 score, or maybe it just feels that way. Four different times (including in the last minute) it seemed like Williams was gonna ice the game and Amherst kept fighting back. 

For Williams, the second half was certainly the best half of Cole Prowitt-Smith's career, going up against Grant Robinson, who has given him a lot of trouble, he put up 18 points on only 7 (!) fga in the half, adding four boards, a block, only one TO against intense ball pressure, and playing great D to boot, pretty much shutting Robinson down and giving him nothing easy, certainly.  Nate Karren carried the Ephs in the first half, but Amherst seemed to make some adjustments and also perhaps he ran out of gas a bit after carrying a huge burden.  Still, yet another great all-around game for him. 

I thought the Eph back-up guards had a nice game, Stoddard and Glatzer both made some big plays in limited minutes, especially Glatzer, who has been playing better and better over the course of the season and just seems to know where to be on the court, both offensively and defensively.  Very poised for a first-year.  Jovan Jones usually plays very well in Little 3 games and today was no exception, he was great on both ends, making some big plays over the dribble while not trying to do do too much. If the favorites win tomorrow and Williams does play Wesleyan, the Ephs will need a bit more from their secondary offensive trio (Spivy, Porter, and Roughley) who have been pretty quiet overall during the past three games.  Spivy did have some bad luck today with two layups somehow just rimming out after beautiful moves / cuts to the hoop.  The Ephs also struggled just a bit from the line today but that's not a shocker in an elimination game vs. Amherst, a lot of pressure. 

For Amherst, I, too, thought the substitution pattern in the first half was very odd.  Garrett Day was very quiet until very late in the game, which seemed to be a pattern late in the year for him.  I was surprised he didn't get a chance to be more of a playmaker with the ball in his hands sooner in the game.  Tim McCarthy hit two VERY deep threes and had a nice overall game.  Although Grant Robinson had an off day, he's absolutely killed the Ephs for years and no Williams fan is going to miss him - he had a great career despite a lot of adversity and could have been an all-timer for Amherst with some better luck. 

Going forward for Amherst, the case for optimism is that the frosh class is REALLY good.  Vance and Scherer are great rim protectors and powerful finishers inside. Helmke has a great shooting stroke and good size.  Mitchell and Reynolds are very pesky and showed they can be effective as a duo (although I do think if they end up playing big minutes together going forward, a team with big guards like Williams will find ways to punish them inside, I think that was effective in part because Amherst had never used that look before).  The case for pessimism is that Amherst seemed best when they had one big man out there to space the floor a bit, since none of their bigs are really shooters, yet they will have something like 6-7 centers on the roster next year.  How to find minutes for all those guys will be a challenge, certainly.  What Amherst really needs is some bigger guards / wings who can shoot and create, which I'm not really seeing on the returning roster. 

[toad22]

What are the odds of an upset tomorrow? I would guess that the odds in all the games are low, but my pick would be Trinity upsetting Tufts. Callahan-Gold needs to stay hot, but I think they have a decent chance.

[SpringSt7]

Trinity beating Tufts with no Donald Jorden seems like a big ask personally. It will be interesting to see if the 3 play-in teams have a bit of an advantage having already gotten into the postseason groove, playing loose on the road. With that being said, the talent gap is massive. If I had to pick I guess I would still pick Trinity too.

[nescac1]

Colby did finally have Noah Tyson and Will King back, so they could at least make it interesting vs. Wesleyan today.  But, probably not.  I think if Jorden doesn't play, it's hard to see an upset.  That would set up a pretty epic semi of Wesleyan-Williams and Tufts-Midd: Wesleyan and Williams playing for a potential top seed in an NCAA quadrant (Wesleyan might lock it up with a win over Williams, especially after St. Joe's loss to Yeshiva, while Williams would likely need another win after that) and Tufts and Midd playing in a potential elimination game for the NCAA tourney (Tufts out with a loss, Midd would be right on the bubble).  If Tufts wins out there is a slight chance NESCAC gets four bids, but I imagine Midd would probably be the odd man out in that scenario.  Right now, Midd is just a bit short on quality wins -- after Amherst and Trinity, there isn't much, and neither of those is really a signature win. 

In terms of the teams who were eliminated, Conn certainly has the brightest future with basically everyone back from a team that made huge improvements as the season went along.  They could be pretty interesting next year.  For Hamilton, losing a good senior class from a team that just could not score the ball, things look fairly bleak.  Bates will need to find a big man if Sarr is done with hoops, but also had terrible luck with injuries and illness this year.  Baxter, McCormick and Primer are certainly going to be a very fun backcourt next year, at least.

Final thoughts on Amherst: the players returning next year hit only 62 threes all season, making only 28 percent of their attempts.  Of the 11 (!) guys who played in the rotation at some point who return, only Reynolds, Mitchell and Helmke look like competent outside threats.  The rest of the returning team barely attempted threes, or barely made them when it did.  For Amherst to bounce back it's going to need some of the fringe shooters on the team to spend a summer in the gym launching outside shots.  One thing Amherst really can do is finish plays inside with authority ... Scherer, Oranye, and Vance combined for FOUR nasty dunks vs. Williams, with Oranye's flush being particularly ferocious (too bad that's not in the highlights Williams posted, which are mostly the Cole show).  But teams are going to play wayyyyyy off basically everyone in the Amherst front court other than Helmke, and it's gonna be tough for a pair of 5'8 guards to get many clean looks from 3 when they are the only perimeter threats at guard.  So Amherst really needs someone from the Alausa / Sommers / Phelan trio (or an incoming frosh) to develop into a reliable wing shooter to give all those waves of big guys have some room to cook.  More likely, Amherst is at least another year away to returning to contention in NESCAC. 

[D3.Lifer]

Tufts has zero chance at a Pool C bid and will definitely win the tournament to get it. Just don't see that happening. They've been better with Rogers but there's a lot size on Williams and Wesleyan to compete with him. Tufts doesn't have much else besides Rogers and the future is looking shaky for the Jumbos at best. Have to think there will be some turnover.

[nescac1]

I think Tufts will be fine going forward.  Linton is certainly a good coach and the team has clearly improved its level of play over the course of this season, especially defensively (which really hasn't had much to do with Rogers, their perimeter D is dramatically improved).  Dylan Thoerner is quietly having a stellar year -- 15 ppg on 52/44/87 -- and has two years of eligibility left.  Aronson, Dieterle, McClaren, Cohen and Henry (who is quick and feisty) are a solid group of veteran guards and wings who are all back next year, so Tufts will have plenty of veteran depth on the perimeter, nearly all 4th or 5th year guys next year.  They add to that deep group James Morakis, a big guard who is tearing up Class A NEPSCAC this year. 

At center, Tufts will have three capable big bodies -- Gettings and Stewart, both of whom got a lot of experience as frosh (and made solid contributions) and figure to make big strides over time -- and 6'10 Josh Bernstein, an incoming big from Berkshire School who seems to score and rebound a lot more than his more heralded teammate, Amherst-bound Charlie Randall.  Those three guys should be able to combine to more or less replace most of what they got from Rogers this year, which hasn't been that overwhelming in most games.   

[Greek Tragedy]

Tufts has zero chance at a Pool C bid and will definitely win the tournament to get it. Just don't see that happening. They've been better with Rogers but there's a lot size on Williams and Wesleyan to compete with him. Tufts doesn't have much else besides Rogers and the future is looking shaky for the Jumbos at best. Have to think there will be some turnover.

Yet, Tufts did beat Williams, handedly (not sure if Williams was at full strength) and lost to Wesleyan by just one.

[SpringSt7]

If you were ranking the best Pool C teams right now, Tufts would certainly be on it. But they have 9 losses (unfortunately keeping it close against Wesleyan still counts as a loss). @ UMD, @ St. Joe's, @ Brandeis, home vs.
Emerson are all not killer losses for a resume but eventually they add up and it's just really tough to see a team that goes, at best, 15-10, getting into the tournament, even if they are good enough to belong.

And it would be unfair to their team to put it down to Rogers' return. They got pasted at the start of the year when he was out and their turnaround has in large part been due to their defense (not Rogers' strong suit) and the progression of Dylan Thoerner, who has been outstanding.

[D3.Lifer]

Tufts is not in the Pool C conversation at all. So they can't be at the top. 13-9 is not a NCAA tournament team without an automatic bid. I think a lot of people are much higher on Tufts future then I am. Brandon Linton is an unproven coach who won in his lone year at Nichols ... which Nichols is now on to their 4th coach in 4 years and all of them have gone to the tournament. Not sure what that means but I don't think that means we can just say Tufts will be good. Heard through the grape vine that some of the above mentioned players are leaving Tufts.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Tufts is ranked 4th in the region, the 3rd NESCAC team on the list.  If they lose in the NESCAC final, they're definitely going to be on the table and in the Pool C conversation at some point.

[SpringSt7]

Looks like Will Dorion is in street clothes and Donald Jorden is dressed but not starting.

Also if we are still doing broadcast related complaints, man, the JumboCast sure has fallen off in quality in the last couple of years.

[Pat Coleman]

Tufts may serve as a blocker, is probably the best way to think about it. They'll be in the C conversation, but they won't have the winning percentage to get selected.